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Series 4 – 2020 No World Wars
Map 4.4 – The Great Powers Part 2


The third part of a four-part series showcasing the great powers in "2020 No World Wars" (NWW) scenario.

Links:
Map 4.1 – Worldmap
Map 4.2 - Great Powers Part 1

Map 4.3 - Great Powers Part 2
The Australian PM is born in Gauteng, but there is no Gauteng province in SA ittl, only Transvaal!
 
I’ve been working on this project on and off for a few months. I recently got back into Europa Universalis IV and played a very enjoyable campaign as Milan. A few years into the game, I got the random event “Talented and Ambitious Daughter” granting my otherwise childless ruler a female heir with a 6/6/6 skill set (first time this has happened to me as well). Seeing as Filippo Maria Visconti had a baseborn daughter in real life named Bianca Maria, I rolled with it and proceeded to unify Northern Italy under the Visconti banner. As it's partially based on a computer game, the PoD isn't that strong, nor do I claim this to be a very plausible timeline. Nevertheless, I hope you enjoy it!


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Excerpt from pages 46-47 of Palgrave's Concise Historical Atlas of Italy (2020):

The life and times of Bianca Maria Visconti were marred by triumphs and tragedies. A lifetime mirrored by the fate of the Milanese state in the wake of her death, at the ripe age of 76 in 1501. Although her astute stewardship had advanced Milanese hegemony well beyond the Po Valley (even surpassing the territorial accomplishments of her grandfather, Gian Galeazzo) she was also to be the final ruler of the Visconti dynasty, earning the epithet “the Last and the Greatest” by the scholarship of posterity.
Born out of wedlock to the Duke of Milan, Filippo Maria, and his mistress Agnese del Maino (the only woman whom the timid duke ever truly loved), Bianca Maria received an excellent humanist education, to which her mind and character were wholly suited. The duke doted on his natural daughter and gradually came to see her as a potential successor. Standing between the imposing martial figure of Gian Galeazzo and the golden age that would become the reign of Bianca Maria, modern historiography has always tended to portray Filippo Maria as an intermediary figure. However, without his decisive defeat of the Venetians in 1452, it is unlikely he would have gathered enough political capital to force through the elevation of his legitimised daughter to the line of succession. Indeed, the victory came none too soon. Three years later, the duke was dead.

In the confusion of 1455, Bianca Maria moved swiftly to outmanoeuvre her opponents. Beguiling the important condottiero Francesco Sforza into supporting her hand in marriage, the duchess seized the apparatus of state ahead of a nascent republican movement. When Sforza tried to force through the marriage, Bianca turned on him, had the general imprisoned and eventually executed. Over the next four decades, she ruled with “... the magnanimity of Augustus and the ruthlessness of Livia.” By aligning with the emperor, she garnered considerable authority on the Padan Plain, which she employed in bringing the Ligurian coast under her control in 1461. Five years later, the Venetians attempted to regain their losses in Lombardy, but was once again defeated by Milanese forces led by the brilliant “tourney captain” Andrea d'Alviano and the Piccinino brothers. With an incredible political sense, the Great Duchess subsequently expanded her domains across the length and breadth of Northern Italy, culminating with the submission of the Florentine Republic only a few short months before her death in early 1501.

Matrimony played an important part in renaissance politics and Bianca Maria would be wed and widowed thrice. However, her only son, Ercole, predeceased her in 1492, ostensibly of the plague, although contemporary sources indicate that he might have been poisoned by a cabale of Sforza supporters. As such, Bianca Maria’s death left the Duchy of Milan without a clear successor. As enemies of the state began to creep out of the woodwork, republican garrison commanders, university rectors and guild masters in the city of Milan acted decisively to prevent the imposition of a foreign prince. On Christmas Day 1501, the Archbishop of Milan, Giovannangelo Arcimboldi, proclaimed the establishment of the Golden Ambrosian Republic. For the next four years, the republican government did its best to fight off the League of Pesaro, a coalition of dispossessed princes and revanchist foreign powers led by the Papacy. At the forefront of the Milanese war effort was the condottiero, Allesandro Doria. The scion of an ancient Ligurian noble family, Doria decisively defeated the League navies off Corsica in 1505, bringing the war to a victorious end. His status as a war hero and a champion of the provinces propelled Allessandro to the top of the Ambrosian Republic, a position he exploited to the full when he abrogated the constitution and made himself Duke of Milan in 1507.
Amazing. I'd just point out that - despite the horrid job EU4 does in representing Northern Lombardy, much to my chagrin - both Ticino and Valtellina weren't lost OTL to the Swiss until the early 16th Century, and would both still be part of Milan in such a wildly successful situation (I doubt Milan would lose them even sooner).
 
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The map above is the final representation of the Christian World scenario, in which only persons who self-identify as Christians get to be transported to the new world.
In the Western Hemisphere we see little changes - among the countries which had lost a significant number of people were Guyana, Suriname and Trinidad. Other than that, little has changed.
Globally, among the leading powers we have America, Brazil, Mexico and Argentina in the Americas, Poland, France, Russia, Italy, Spain and Germany in Europe, South Africa, Ethiopia, Yoruba, Biafra, Uganda and Egypt in Africa. The dominant powers in East Asia are China, Phillippines, Korea and Australia. What needs to be understood that the population of the Indian Subcontinent is roughly 50 million people in this scenario.

In the American continent, Argentina and Mexico rival for the position of leading the Latin-American world - with Chile, Uruguay and Paraguay being in the Argentine sphere of influence, while Mexico needs to counter of the American influence in Central America. In Africa, the heavy influence of the European powers of France and Spain and Italy is felt as far south as the Sahel. Most of the African nations have suffered a rather strong blow, and Nigerian successor states are rivalling each other. Eritrea is struggling to remain outside of Ethiopian influence.

Tell me if you would like to see more of these Religion ISOTs
 
A map of possible forms of social organization. blue= feudal, yellow= nomadic, brown= tribal pink= cities/republican
Quite an interesting idea but I have to question the criteria for how regions were assigned to each of the categories.

The tribal hinterlands of eastern India are shown as feudal, while the Gangetic and Indus plains which support a massive population are somehow tribal and nomadic (and even more weird, the river valley in Assam, which surrounds the Brahmaputra, is shown as tribal while the surrounding line of Himalayan mountains are feudal.)

In the Americas, the categories don’t seem to line up with the Mayan or Aztec civilizations at all (parts of Sonora are feudal, but Tikal, the ancient urban center of a centralized state, is tribal?). Somehow the Chaco plains of Paraguay and Bolivia (a prime example of nomadic cultures, even among some indigenous peoples and ranchers today) are feudal.

if there ever was a truly ‘feudal’ system in the OTL US of A, it would have been in the Deep South (I.e. Humid Subtropical regions) which relied heavily on slavery for manual labor during both modern times and Pre-Colombian times.

Come to think of it, the weirdest areas are probably the Nile and Mesopotamia (maybe river-valleys need their own category of ‘empire ‘or ‘state’ or something?) followed by Southern China- I’m not exactly sure what Southern China should be but putting most of it as tribal seems like a stretch.
 
Quite an interesting idea but I have to question the criteria for how regions were assigned to each of the categories.

The tribal hinterlands of eastern India are shown as feudal, while the Gangetic and Indus plains which support a massive population are somehow tribal and nomadic (and even more weird, the river valley in Assam, which surrounds the Brahmaputra, is shown as tribal while the surrounding line of Himalayan mountains are feudal.)

In the Americas, the categories don’t seem to line up with the Mayan or Aztec civilizations at all (parts of Sonora are feudal, but Tikal, the ancient urban center of a centralized state, is tribal?). Somehow the Chaco plains of Paraguay and Bolivia (a prime example of nomadic cultures, even among some indigenous peoples and ranchers today) are feudal.

if there ever was a truly ‘feudal’ system in the OTL US of A, it would have been in the Deep South (I.e. Humid Subtropical regions) which relied heavily on slavery for manual labor during both modern times and Pre-Colombian times.

Come to think of it, the weirdest areas are probably the Nile and Mesopotamia (maybe river-valleys need their own category of ‘empire ‘or ‘state’ or something?) followed by Southern China- I’m not exactly sure what Southern China should be but putting most of it as tribal seems like a stretch.
I shall try again, it seems most of it all is messed up.
 
I like, I like! I've always thought "Gian Galleazo with more competent kids and grandkids" (and perhaps less enthusiastic about giving away conquests for dynastic alliances which didn't help) was a decent POD for an early unification of North Italy [1]. One wonders what happens with the renaissance - a more centralized north Italy leaves fewer courts for artists to be brilliant at, but there still will be plenty of local nobility and wealthy commoners to patronize the arts for their personal glory.

[1] Between the still powerful papacy and, at minimum, the Aragonese, unification of all Italy isn't happening soon. And of course there's the French to worry about...

Thanks! :)

I also quite like medieval/early modern Italian unifications - so many interesting elements to consider!
 

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The interwar era of Japan was profoundly traumatic. The Meiji reforms had done away with the old class of the samurai, undoing many of the traditionalist and conservative ways of Japanese society. This led to a generation of men, the successors to the unseated elite, which opposed modernization, liberalism, and democracy. These heirs mostly joined the military in hopes of instilling discipline and personal rigor. This led to the formation of a military class of officers and generals that embraced ideals of totalitarianism, nationalism, and a rejection of progress. For the most part, however, these elements were a minority in society. Postwar Japan emerged as an industrialized, socially forward-thinking and democratic nation with strong political institutions, moving closer to the West in terms of culture and economy. There were regular elections, a parliament, and a functional two-party system.

There was, however, a tremendous shift following the Great War. Japan had been very visibly humiliated by Germany and her European allies, denied from the spoils of war and publicly qualified as a lesser power. Despite the sacrifices in the field and the immeasurable help Japan had lent Germany, they received practically nothing. It was a deep wound to Japan's pride, and the nation plunged into a general depression. To say that it angered many would be quite an understatement: the military saw this as the ultimate proof that the current government had failed, and that the country had to return to its origins. However, beyond that, it meant embracing the more radical aspects of the Quran and Islamic scholarship. There was talk of jihad - a holy campaign of violence against the infidels of the West, and to exact vengeance against those that betrayed Japan.

Among the most vociferous supporters of this radicalism was Shumei Okawa, an Islamic theologist and writer, who argued that Japan was to succeed the caliphates of old and rid the world of infidels in the process. This ideology of "caliphatism" became very popular in the military. Officers such as Kanji Ishiwara, Seishiro Itagaki, Tetsuzan Nagata, and a young Hideki Tojo were early subscribers to this idea, and merged it with right-wing nationalist concepts and Japanese traditionalism. The government in Tokyo opposed these trends, leading to several figures speaking ill of the "radical indoctrination" that had taken hold in the military.


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Shumei Okawa, founder of "caliphatism"
The military strongly denounced these attacks, accusing high-ranking ministers and legislators of betraying Islam. These conflicts raged on for years, and the people were not exactly dismissive. After the tragedy of the Great War, the idea that the democratically-elected government was a failure started to make sense, and promises of future grandeur were very appealing. However, as much as the military's influence grew, the average Japanese remained unfazed. A strong economy and continuous electoral successes for the old parties meant that things in Japan stayed somewhat stable.

That is, until October 1929.

The stock market crash devastated the Japanese economy, which was by then dependent on silk exports. With practically no natural resources and an ever-growing population to feed, Japan entered a state of extreme crisis. And crisis begets opportunities for those well outside the normal political spectrum: the caliphatists, religious fanatics and totalitarian extremists, were suddenly the center of reason. For years they had proclaimed that Japan was plunging into darkness and disarray, and suddenly these premonitions were becoming reality. Initially, the Japanese government refused any kind of agreement between Okawa and the military hierarchy. Clashes in the street would become commonplace, as both sides tried to exert pressure on the other. There was rioting and pogroms and violent fighting. Japan was at the brink of civil war.

And civil war would've occurred, had it not been for something that took place in March 1932. A cadre of naval officers led by Chuichi Nagumo, inspired by Okawa's ideology, hijacked two cruisers and three destroyers and departed from Taipei, and attacked German colonial forces off Saigon. They broke through the completely unprepared defenses and drove deep into the city, inflicting extreme damage. A German navy squadron was deployed from patrol duty in the Java Sea, but the Japanese slipped past them and returned to friendly territory.

End Part II

Part I: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/map-thread-xx.492239/page-149#post-21275712 (thank you for the overwhelmingly good response!)
 
The interwar era of Japan was profoundly traumatic. The Meiji reforms had done away with the old class of the samurai, undoing many of the traditionalist and conservative ways of Japanese society. This led to a generation of men, the successors to the unseated elite, which opposed modernization, liberalism, and democracy. These heirs mostly joined the military in hopes of instilling discipline and personal rigor. This led to the formation of a military class of officers and generals that embraced ideals of totalitarianism, nationalism, and a rejection of progress. For the most part, however, these elements were a minority in society. Postwar Japan emerged as an industrialized, socially forward-thinking and democratic nation with strong political institutions, moving closer to the West in terms of culture and economy. There were regular elections, a parliament, and a functional two-party system.

There was, however, a tremendous shift following the Great War. Japan had been very visibly humiliated by Germany and her European allies, denied from the spoils of war and publicly qualified as a lesser power. Despite the sacrifices in the field and the immeasurable help Japan had lent Germany, they received practically nothing. It was a deep wound to Japan's pride, and the nation plunged into a general depression. To say that it angered many would be quite an understatement: the military saw this as the ultimate proof that the current government had failed, and that the country had to return to its origins. However, beyond that, it meant embracing the more radical aspects of the Quran and Islamic scholarship. There was talk of jihad - a holy campaign of violence against the infidels of the West, and to exact vengeance against those that betrayed Japan.

Among the most vociferous supporters of this radicalism was Shumei Okawa, an Islamic theologist and writer, who argued that Japan was to succeed the caliphates of old and rid the world of infidels in the process. This ideology of "caliphatism" became very popular in the military. Officers such as Kanji Ishiwara, Seishiro Itagaki, Tetsuzan Nagata, and a young Hideki Tojo were early subscribers to this idea, and merged it with right-wing nationalist concepts and Japanese traditionalism. The government in Tokyo opposed these trends, leading to several figures speaking ill of the "radical indoctrination" that had taken hold in the military.


View attachment 599621
Shumei Okawa, founder of "caliphatism"
The military strongly denounced these attacks, accusing high-ranking ministers and legislators of betraying Islam. These conflicts raged on for years, and the people were not exactly dismissive. After the tragedy of the Great War, the idea that the democratically-elected government was a failure started to make sense, and promises of future grandeur were very appealing. However, as much as the military's influence grew, the average Japanese remained unfazed. A strong economy and continuous electoral successes for the old parties meant that things in Japan stayed somewhat stable.

That is, until October 1929.

The stock market crash devastated the Japanese economy, which was by then dependent on silk exports. With practically no natural resources and an ever-growing population to feed, Japan entered a state of extreme crisis. And crisis begets opportunities for those well outside the normal political spectrum: the caliphatists, religious fanatics and totalitarian extremists, were suddenly the center of reason. For years they had proclaimed that Japan was plunging into darkness and disarray, and suddenly these premonitions were becoming reality. Initially, the Japanese government refused any kind of agreement between Okawa and the military hierarchy. Clashes in the street would become commonplace, as both sides tried to exert pressure on the other. There was rioting and pogroms and violent fighting. Japan was at the brink of civil war.

And civil war would've occurred, had it not been for something that took place in March 1932. A cadre of naval officers led by Chuichi Nagumo, inspired by Okawa's ideology, hijacked two cruisers and three destroyers and departed from Taipei, and attacked German colonial forces off Saigon. They broke through the completely unprepared defenses and drove deep into the city, inflicting extreme damage. A German navy squadron was deployed from patrol duty in the Java Sea, but the Japanese slipped past them and returned to friendly territory.

End Part II

Part I: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/map-thread-xx.492239/page-149#post-21275712 (thank you for the overwhelmingly good response!)
This is tons of fun!
 
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Map of the US in "Jefferson's Anti-Slavery Crisis
Orange: Original 10
Red: 1791-1820 statehood
Black: 1821-1860
(The Canada portions were obtained because after the “Canadian Rebellion in the late 1830s/early 1840s, an abortive attempt at self-government led to Canada merging with the US”. See Canada part 1/part 2 for details.)
Green: 1861-1918
Purple: 1918+, obtained statehood after “Dreadful War” (Former “British Columbia” taken from British Empire, Alaska from Russia). Northern parts of Canada took longer to get enough people for statehood.
 
View attachment 599600
The map above is the final representation of the Christian World scenario, in which only persons who self-identify as Christians get to be transported to the new world.
In the Western Hemisphere we see little changes - among the countries which had lost a significant number of people were Guyana, Suriname and Trinidad. Other than that, little has changed.
Globally, among the leading powers we have America, Brazil, Mexico and Argentina in the Americas, Poland, France, Russia, Italy, Spain and Germany in Europe, South Africa, Ethiopia, Yoruba, Biafra, Uganda and Egypt in Africa. The dominant powers in East Asia are China, Phillippines, Korea and Australia. What needs to be understood that the population of the Indian Subcontinent is roughly 50 million people in this scenario.

In the American continent, Argentina and Mexico rival for the position of leading the Latin-American world - with Chile, Uruguay and Paraguay being in the Argentine sphere of influence, while Mexico needs to counter of the American influence in Central America. In Africa, the heavy influence of the European powers of France and Spain and Italy is felt as far south as the Sahel. Most of the African nations have suffered a rather strong blow, and Nigerian successor states are rivalling each other. Eritrea is struggling to remain outside of Ethiopian influence.

Tell me if you would like to see more of these Religion ISOTs
So, only people are going along in these ISOTs, correct? If so, why are most of the world's borders static? Industry and infrastructure aren't going along, so it's likely the world would fall to chaos for quite some time, right?

And what about people who don't fit neatly into the box of "identify as Christians"? What if they don't know? What if they're agnostic but lean Christian in their ideas of religion?
 
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