View attachment 445468
Not at all a pretty map, just a concept I wanted to jot down.
The 2020's see a surge of nation-building projects in Africa and Asia* regarding
linguistic nationalism. Most have an Anti-English-as-mother-tongue character, though more extreme movements oppose English as a Lingua Franca as well. China switches approaches from prioritizing Confucius Institute to funding third world countries redoing their infrastructure in local languages (not a bad idea, something perhaps worth dislodging Western influence over, see: CAR switching to to policy of an officially monolingual Sango-speaking state). Russia, though annoyed that some of the state most eager to drop the languages of former colonizers are the 'Stans, joins in, finding it rather easy way to play 'the good guy' against Western influence. Supporting Haiti's 'Haitianization' programs may, in Moscow's view, give Russia an Anti-U.S. base in the Caribbean. In some places like the Philippines or Tanzania, switching to one local language, like Tagalog or Swahili, is part of a larger process of nation-state formation, akin to what Europe went through in the 19th century (critics warn that this lead to historically poor consequences in Europe; local-unifiers-through-language retort that their states will avoid Europe's pitfalls). Another effect of this, is that Assad-type secular Arab leaders seeking Russian and/or Chinese support ditch Modern Standard Arabic in favor of local dialects of their own standardization (Egyptian as a language quickly becomes popular as a foreign language of study abroad). The U.S., though starting to ramp up tensions with China and Russia is rather unwilling to go to bat for Anglophone/Francophone elites in third world countries (Africa/South and Southeast Asia), though France is a little more interventionist on behalf of Francophone elites who ask for support.
The decade also sees India undergo extreme political changes. As a compromise in official language debates, English-Hindi at the national level is replaced with Hindi-Bengali-Tamil; a lot of other languages' speakers are unhappy, but it looks like the compromise which required the support of all major parties will hold, if only because drafting another one would be too hard. In 2030 a solidly leftist government wins power in Delhi, and to placate right-wing Hindu opposition it lends support to the long proposed idea of making Hindi an official language at the U.N., taking Arabic's spot. [Similarly language divided Nigeria looks on, wondering if a similar compromise would be worth it, but for now is stepping up English education, making a bet on the West.]
The only UN language not to lose any states and to grow in this time period, is Spanish, which becomes Belize's sole official language.
*Well, there are new stories of linguistic minorities getting mistreated in Europe, but that is not the focus of this map.