1915 ended with seemingly no end in sight for the Great War. The horrific trench stalemate in the West continued, Italy's entrance into the war on the side of the Entente further stretched out the ailing Austro-Hungarian Empire, and a Commonwealth offensive in Thrace to force Turkey out of the war had failed spectacularly. With the British blockade taking a greater and greater toll on the Central Powers, the
Oberste Heeresleitung hoped for 1916 to be the breakthrough year where at least one of the major Entente members could be neutralized. While some favored a major offensive at Verdun, it was decided that with the Straits safe, the year's focus would be on a deep offensive into Russia. The other main objective, perhaps more daring, was a strike the Suez Canal to cut Britain off from Asia and the Pacific. The linchpin of this latter goal was Ethiopia, whose young emperor Iyasu V, eager to prove his strength, agreed to join the Central Powers with the promise of annexing Italian Eritrea. Germany would supply weapons to Ethiopia and to several rebellions in the Sudan and Somaliland, tying down British colonial forces while German stormtroopers would link with an Ottoman invasion of the Sinai Peninsula.
Though the stalemate on the Western Front continued with heavy casualties on both sides, the German initiatives in Egypt and Russia were wildly successful. By the end of the year, the Germans had captured Riga and had moved into Estonia and White Russia, nearing Minsk and putting even Petrograd in danger. The capture of the Suez Canal in December of 1916 prompted the Khedivate of Egypt to formally reject British authority and switch sides while Ethiopia overran Italian Eritrea and Germany was able to supply von Lettow-Vorbeck's guerrilla campaign in Tanganyika for the first time in over two years. The Russian tsar would formally abdicate and be replaced by a republican government in what would be known as the January Revolution in Russia. The Provisional Government in Petrograd immediately sued for peace, but in March was deposed in an Entente-backed coup by General Lavr Kornilov. Germany, still recognizing the Provisional Government, imposed draconian terms in the Treaty of Kaunas as Russia devolved into civil war between the right-wing junta and various leftist groups, including the Bolsheviks and the Left SR. 1917 would also mark the end of fighting in the Balkans, as a German-Bulgarian offensive captured Salonika and the Greek government sued for peace, losing demanded territories to Bulgaria but secretly promised the Italian Dodecanese at the end of the war.
With victory in the East, Germany could not only commit entirely to victory in the West but could now subvert the British blockade with Ukrainian grain. Recognizing this, the Supreme Allied Council committed to one final offensive in the West, hoping to drive the Germans out of France and into Belgium and then seek a white peace. Despite initial successes, the Petain Offensive of the fall of 1917 ground to a halt at the Hindenburg Line. The spring of 1918 would bring the decisive German counterattack, backed by rested troops from the East, as well as German support for Austria against the Italians. By summer, Paris was surrounded and the Central Powers had overrun Veneto and surrounded Paris. As the French government in Bordeaux prepred its terms of surrender, the country would collapse into revolution. Italy, with ideological and regional tensions simmering, would follow suit. Seeing no point in continuing the war with all of Europe lost, Britain sued for peace on June 19th, 1918. Portugal and Japan would follow suit within two days.
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Twenty years after the beginning of the Great War, Germany sits triumphantly as the hegemon of Europe, guarded from a revanchist Russian junta by satellite states to its east. Its main allies remain united, with Austria drifting towards federalization and the Ottoman Empire growing rich from Gulf oil, but both still struggle to suppress ethnic tensions. The French Commune and the Italian Socialist Republic are isolated as the sole communist states in the world, with Paris hosting many Russian emigres including former Red Army leader Leon Trotsky. Meanwhile, the French Republic survives through its colonial empire, minus what Germany took as spoils and Japan seized in the chaos of the civil war. Italy has fallen apart, with the Austrian-backed Kingdom of Two Sicilies controlling the south of the peninsula, the Pope reasserting political authority in Rome, and the Kingdom of Italy exiled to Sardinia. The British Empire is still traumatized by its defeat in the War, but is slowly beginning to seek cooperation rather than competition with Berlin. While several regional conflicts appear to be brewing, the great power blocs of before the Great War are gone, and there seems to be little that can challenge German hegemony over Europe, for now...
tl;dr heavily inspired by Kaiserreich but meant to be much more realistic, a few of my own ideas in as well
