Cross-posting from One Shots:
This one is for Krinsbez; a reverse
Amerika.
In this world, Gorbachev never came to power, and the Cold War remained a rather nail-biting affair. In 1989, the US and the USSR stumbled into conflict over Some Damned Thing in Central Europe, and against most expectations, rather than calling for a ceasefire and trying to extricate both sides from potential disaster, President Ackerman ordered a first strike against the Soviet Union’s strategic missile capacity and submarines. The use of orbital assets from a continued Star Wars program and high altitude nuclear EM bursts to blind Soviet defenses, combined with some impressive incompetence on the Soviet side, helped make this largely successful, with the Soviet response being limited and incoherent. It also helped a great deal when it turned out, like many Soviet products, Soviet missiles were often rather poorly constructed – after all, it’s not easy to test an intercontinental nuclear missile – and of those missiles which did go off, those which did not fall prey to counter-missiles, Shining Pebbles ™ and the Teller Atomic Laser System often ended landing quite a long distance from where they were supposed to go or blew up with little damage in sub-critical explosions.
A sufficiently cold-blooded and ruthless soviet leader might have calculated that even if the US had the capacity to reduce the USSR to radioactive rubble, the USSR still had surviving assets to do enough damage to the US to force a peace, but the current Premier was another gerontocrat elected as a holder after the unexpected death of the last competent hardliner, and tended to babble about his WWII experience rather than give any useful orders. After the US blew up Novosibirsk and Donetsk in retaliation for Dallas, Paterson, New Jersey, and St. Cloud, Minnesota [1], and the largely automatic attack of the regular Red Army bogged down almost immediately due to logistics failings, and reports came in about China’s army mobilizing on the border, the “provisional ruling council” threw in the towel, although fighting along the Iron Curtain dragged on for another thirty hours before everyone got the order to halt and decided that they were actually coming from Moscow.
The US occupation that followed has lasted fifteen years. It turned ugly early on as US efforts to disassemble the Soviet system brought a breakdown in the Soviet economy without anything being put in its place, and True Believers (rather more in a world where Gorbachev’s Glasnost never took place) mobilized to kick out the invaders. Low-level fighting continued for years, and the US broke up the USSR into multiple “republics” to help break apart any unified resistance, and gave independence to pretty much every state with a narrow majority of non-Russians.
Fifteen years later, Russia is certified “Commie Free” and ready for re-unification and the end of US occupation, in large part due to trillions of dollars that have been thrown down the hole of “Russian reconstruction.” Shortly, the Russian public in six (and possibly seven) republics will get to vote on unification – what will happen if one or more of the states votes “no” is unclear. (There is a considerable disparity between the poorest and richest Republics, and those in the better off states fear that union might bring down their standard of living). Still, Russian patriotism is far from dead, and the initial polling numbers are positive (although even after 15 years of US occupation Russians remain predisposed to tell government officials what they want to hear).
The US is even more heavily militarized than OTL at the time, although this takes the form of a bigger army and more military hardware rather than Ramboized police forces. At its peak the US had nearly one and three quarter million troops in Russia fighting various insurrections and maintaining order in areas not actually in revolt (the State of Emergency required the reinstatement of the draft in 1991): currently the troop number is down to 300,000, and more will be departing by year’s end. The US army overall remains more than twice the size of OTL 2004, and with a wider cross section of the population having close friends or family in the military, a considerably more “soldiers culture” society exists than OTL. OTOH, there is less taste for interventions, after the whole “occupy largest country on Earth” business: the US has even more military bases and commitments abroad than OTL 2017, and has no real desire to increase its burdens. Meanwhile, a sense of guilt has become increasingly prevalent: the US after all was the first to strike, and although the strike targeted military assets rather than people, the US still snuffed out millions in a single day. Of course, “realists” who says it was Them or US and Them would have been worse are very scornful of such ideas, which often leads to fisticuffs. (The internet is as not yet developed enough to support proper virtual shitstorms).
It is somewhat of a paradox that while there are no Communist countries left (China may have been a US ally against the USSR at the time of the 4-day war, but afterwards found it in its best interests to drop the “communist” talk in exchange for access to US markets, and the small fry were mopped up before long), Communism is actually more popular than OTL: it was murdered rather dying of its own failings, and the very fact that the US, the global hegemon, is strongly anti-Communist gives it a cachet of popular resistance, while global capitalism continues to grind down the poor and ill-prepared as OTL. There are a number of Marxist resistance movements, although the US is always happy to help local regimes squash such activities, and many nations have leftist/social democratic parties which swing a little too far into the Red end of the spectrum for US tastes. Even in the US, where any objectively pro-socialist statements will be drowned out by a chorus of “Remember Dallas!”, lefty ideas have increasing cachet in a solidly neo-liberal economic environment which while not as dysfunctional as OTL 2017 is still harsh on the bottom third of the population (a lot of the social safety net was dismantled to make up for the huge military and occupation costs of the 90s, and hasn’t been restored as costs declined).
If anyone is going to challenge the US hegemony, it most likely the European Union: a lot of Europeans think the Eastern European Crisis could have been resolved peacefully and that the US risked nuclear annihilation of the entire northern hemisphere to gain final victory over the Soviets, while US nuking of possible Soviet missile sites in eastern Europe have somewhat soured attitudes among even the “liberated” nations. Germany, meanwhile, had hundreds of thousands killed and wounded during the chaotic period of “conventional” fighting, many permanently crippled or killed by “unconventional” chemical weapons or, in a couple cases, “strategic” battlefield baby nukes. Several German towns have never been rebuilt doe to persistent chemicals or radiation. The EU is more closely united than OTL in 2004, more lefty, and definitely more anti-US. It is also more militarized: there was no long late-80s, 90s, peace era, only a transition from being next door from one threatening superpower to being next to another threatening superpower, occupying the former. Americans find European attitudes absurd, and say so when they aren’t making threatening statements about not being able to work with excessively “Red” European politicians and ignoring increasingly broad European hints about removing their military bases from Germany, France, etc.
Canada is nervous.
Circumstances being rather different, and the US clearly in a nuke-wagging Doesn’t Take Shit from anyone, Saddam Hussein avoided being provocative by invading Kuwait, therefore butterflying a US military presence in Saudi Arabia proper and giving some middle east hotheads one less thing to get outraged over. (Salafist political Islam is hardly dead; it’s found other places to work, in Algeria, Tajikistan, and elsewhere). Instead, Saddam took advantage of a temporarily confused situation in Syria after the 1995 assassination of Hafez al-Assad to invade and unify the Baathist Arab world. This was not appreciated by a lot of Syrians, and even less by the Israelis. Saddam announced he had the Bomb. Thinking this would discourage any attack. Unfortunately, he clearly had not grasped the US as yet unnamed “no nukes for you!” doctrine (eventually known as the Schwarzkopf Doctrine), which led to the annihilation of Iraq’s nuclear capacity and the smashing of the Iraqi army in Syria by Israeli forces. After a somewhat extended period of chaos, the area is divided into a small Druze state under Israeli protection, multiple refugee ethnicities under the annoyed protection of the US, as yet unrecognized Kurdish and Shi’a Iraqi states, an unpleasant Sunni Syrian Islamicist state, and the area controlled by the Baath Party army (Saddam is scattered molecules): the fact that they are holding onto a chunk of northern Syria is tolerated by the US and Israel, because
they’re better than the alternative.
With the Soviet Union remaining under hardliners, the South African government was less willing to deal with the (hard left, lest we forget) ANC, and the move away from Aparthied was slowed to the point where things got
really hairy (Nelson Mandela dying in prison didn’t help), and after a long period of violence South Africa is being reconstructed as a loose federation under foreign (well, US, mostly) monitoring. Other parts of Africa are variously better or worse than OTL: there really can’t be said to a strong trend one way or the other.
The US tends to look suspiciously on China, and has shown a rather disrespectful attitude, culminating in its recent recognition of Taiwan as an independent state (the US response to Chinese protests was
hey, it’s not like we recognized them as the actual China!). The US remains confident in their ability to slap down China if needed; hey, they took down and occupied the USSR – China’s a third world nation, right? (This will likely change as China’s economy continues to grow).
Yugoslavia, having exchanged the Soviet Union for the US as overbearing regional hegemon, managed to hold together, although Kosovo remains a Problem. A slow transition to actual democracy plus ethnic strife have delayed its joining the EU, but it’s looking likely in the next few years, along with the Ukraine, Turkey (actually has a chance in this TL), and Belarus, although some Europeans are calling for a pause in expansion to consolidate and deepen the Union as it is now.
Russia and the former USSR are a good deal wealthier and more functional than in 2004 OTL, having been the target of a lengthy and expensive US commitment to build functional capitalist states rather than throwing the place to the mercy of the Free Market and local tyrants and oligarchs. However, the standard of living remains low compared to the US, and a lot of Russians feel that the US has helped itself a bit too eagerly to the abundant natural resources, and are uncomfortable with the way US corporate interests dominate the economy. And of course a shitload of Russian artists, philosophers, etc. complain how the Russian Soul has been contaminated by Americanism, their heritage traded for a mess of hamburgers. Russia certainly has absorbed a lot of US culture, and indeed some Americans: there are nearly half a million Americans neither part of the military or married into it living in Russia, although it’s expected the number will decline as Russia becomes a sovereign nation. Political campaigning for the role of all-Russia president has already begun even though that’s nearly two years more of transition away even if the vote is successful: the reaction of Americans to the crowd of would-be candidates has mostly been “where are all these freaks coming from?”
Having fought their first really serious war in nearly a generation and then having to deal with the messy, chaotic aftermath has seriously butterflied Israeli politics, as has an even larger than OTL influx of post-Soviet Jews than OTL, and the survival of Yitzhak Rabin. Settlement of the west Bank has been frozen, and a shaky peace currently is holding, with the US and Europe investing several billions in building up the economies of Gaza and the West Bank: there is even some talk of creating an extraterritorial train system between the two chunks of Arab Palestine, although the ultra-nationalists and religious hardliners in the Israeli parliament are foaming at the mouth as it is.
[1] The New Jersey bomb is generally believed to have been targeted at New York: nobody really has figured out where the St. Cloud bomb was supposed to land.