I don’t think the examples he cites are much use at all; nomadic cavalry vs early industrial warfare.
A somewhat modern and industrial China is an extremely tough nut for what seems like a Russian-centric polity to crack.
Your timeline at the end of the day but nothing unites China like a foreign opponent, at least in the modern era.
The Collectivist Internationale might have been initially Russian-centric, but it's...well, "evolved" in the similar way that "English Socialism" morphed into the barely recognizable IngSoc.
Also, keep in mind that in OTL, the Chinese still succumbed to infighting and social turmoil amidst modernization and industrialization. Not to mention how even outside threats didn't really stop the at times bitter feuding among the warlords, Communists and Republican claimants.
In the setting, a combination of simmering tensions, increasingly draconian measures to maintain order, the assassination of the Emperor and the hasty circumstances behind the Regency's founding resulted in a kind of "perfect storm" for socio-political collapse in much of China. It's also implied that this helped to "discredit" the Mandate of Heaven to a degree, further sowing the seeds of Chinese Republicanism.