With the 20th anniversary of the operation Storm here is a little
thought experiment I did what it might have looked it things
went the other way slightly.
The PoD is that in 1991 mobilisation in SR Serbia doesn't flop completely
and instead of the 10-15% between 25-30% anwser the call. This provides
much needed manpower during the late autumn and early winter of '91
allowing the JNA to maintain their offensive actions and sufficiently reinforce
SAO western Slavonia to block the first major Croatian counter-offensive.
Still maintaining the upper hand JNA refuses the Sarajevo ceasfire and a few
days later secures Dubrovnik. With the situation looking unfavourable in the
field international recognition of Croatia (bot not of Slovenia) is postponed.
During February-March JNA and Serb paramilitaries realise that Croatian
defences have been sufficiently bolstered preventing any further major
offensive actions without sustaining severe casulties and permanently
damaging their offensive capabilities. As things heat up in BiH JNA relocates
their most elite units there in anticipation of hostilities that break out on the
independence referendum is scheduled as local Serbs try to disrupt the
referendum. The referendum is postponed as fighting starts. Learning from
their mistakes in Croatia (siege of Vukovar, Dubrovnik and Zadar though
the later did not fall) JNA concentrates on securing areas where Serbs are
dominant and areas that would be crucial for the sustainability of the
previous areas. Sarajevo is surrounded on three sides but beyond ocassional
sniping little action takes place there.
Then in July 1992 to the surprise of the international community
as well as Croat and Bosniak leadership the government of SFRJ and the
leadership of JNA call an unilateral ceasfire and open talks with the
international communitiy (EU and UN) to organise a peace conference in
Vienna. The opening offer of the "Yugoslav" side is that they have come to
realise Slovenians, Croats and "muslims" no longer want to live with them in
the same country and have decided to let them go. The realisation had
existed for almost a year but they first decided to protect the loyal Serb
population of Croatia and BiH to prevent the genocide like the one that
happened during WWII. In order to show their good faith their will return
a strip of land previously predominantly inhabited by Croats before the
breaking of hostilities connecting the Bihać pocket in western Bosnia
with Croatian held territories in Croatia.
Though Croatia and BiH never accept the conclusions of the conference
hostilities end apart from occasional gunfire along the lines for years to come.
Even though Croatia and BiH refused the conclusions JNA withdraws from the
corridor and sets up defensive possitions along the front. Starting the long
wait.
What is left of Croatia and BiH comes together and forms a confederacy
which is after a referendum in October 1993 renamed "Democratic Republic
of Yugoslavia". A year later what is left of SFRY is renamed "The Serb
Federation" mimicing their big brother Russia. Though EU courts Serbia
for years, Serbia becomes a firm Russian ally and enjoys the benefits of the Russian economic surge in the early 2000's.
On the other hand DR Yugosalvia becomes ever more affiliated with USA
especially after the Russian navy recieved docking rights in the Adriatic
fullfiling the US cold war nightmare. US helps Yugoslavia build its armed
forces and analists presume that as early as 2002 Yugoslavian military
was ready to take the military of the Serbian federation head on.
Since 2006 SF has been experiencing a low level insurgency in Kosovo and
Sandjak region as well as civil protest in central regions of Montenegro
calling for greater autonomy and caliming the "unionist referendum" was
a scam. When Russia got itself into a proxy war with Turkey in the conflict
between Azerbejan and Armenia in 2009 and then into a more open support
for Trandnistira in the renewed Moldavian civil war in 2010 the US has eyed
the Serbian federation as a target of its own proxy war. When things
excalated in Ukraine in 2012 with a pro-EU insurgency in Galicia the Russians
provided all the support Ukraine asked for to battle the "Nazi" terrorist and
extremists.
In the meantime Turkey provided serious assistance to Yugoslavia along with
US and Germany which ensured that by 2013 the armed forces of Yugoslavia
were cosidered within the top 10 in Europe. So when in July 2014 riots
broke out in Cetinje and Podgorica and widespread fighting broke out in
Kosovo Pentagon gave Yugoslavia the green light to restore the borders
of SR Croatia and BiH as well as ensuring Montenegro and Kosovo break free
from the Serbian Federation so the Russian lose their Adratic port.
This was done amids serious protest from the British and the French who
in hope of detering the assault informed the Serbs that the assault was
immenent. At 5am on July 28th half a million Yugoslav soldiers entered
battle under codename OPERATION BROTHERHOOD & UNITY.
As sun rises the world holds its collective breath how the Russian Federation
and its allies will react as well as some very Russia leaning NATO members
such as Greece and Hungary. Many fear that a century later another
world war might start in the balkans.