A HRE-ized Italy.
I don't have an idea for the POD, but I have come up with the current diplomatic situation.
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The Neapolitan Zone.
Ruled by the various major families, a series of marriages have managed to expand some of the greatest economic and military powers, creating states more powerful than anything else.
The Archduchy of Nieve is in the center, being tugged by the major powers. Eternally a bit of a recluse when it comes to nations, and one whose people are often rude to those who don't share the state-sponsored worldviews. Wars have removed much of the prestige the Archduchy once had.
The Archduke, Boreo Nieve IV, has managed to pull of two minor diplomatic coups, with the formation of the Central Freistat Zone (CFZ) in opposition to the more regulated economic alliances between the other states, and the reconciliation with the Queen of Embaro over coffee a few days before he wedding to the Lord of Givo. The Unification treaties have brought new peace to the region. However, tensions are rising.
If a war happens, Nieve will be the first to go.
The Archduke has begun to count the days.