With a POD of 1938, what POD (or multiple PODs) would have been necessary for the end of WWII to result in an western/communist split of Europe to look like this?
Mussolini has an accident. His successor breaks off the alliance with Germany and Italian intervention in the Spanish Civil War. Italy returns to opposing the Anschluss of Austria.
Germany continues to re-arm, and France/Britain sacrifice Czechoslovakia to appease Hitler.
1939-1940 as OTL, except that Italy remains neutral, the SCW continues, and the French government withdraws to North Africa. Also, the German victory over France is delayed to late July. FDR retires; the Republicans win the election, but are dominated by Isolationist sentiment.
German forces march into Spain to help the Nationalists. A German airborne operation takes Corsica. The Battle of Britain, Blitz, Battle of the Atlantic all follow. Yugoslavia, Greece, Bulgaria, and Albania remain neutral - and of course Austria.
1941 - BARBAROSSA. However, Stalin has not decided Germany won't attack. Soviet forces are on alert and ready to fight from the beginning. The German attack is successful, but substantially less so than OTL. (The Germans take Riga, Smolensk, and Kiev, but stop there.)
President Willkie, beholden to the Isolationist wing, opposes aid to the Allies, and disclaims any support for Britain and the Netherlands against Japan. The Netherlands East Indies sell Japan all the oil they need. There is no Pacific War.
1942 - Britain fights the Battle of the Atlantic, and begins the bomber offensive and rearmament for an invasion of the Continent. Soviet and German forces struggle in the East.
1943 - Britain wins the Battle of the Atlantic, bombs Germany heavily, but is still far short of the strength to invade. Soviet forces push the Axis west to the 1941 borders.
1944 - Soviet forces conquer Finland, the Baltics, Romania, and most of Poland. Britain bombs the snot out of Germany and liberates Norway.
1945 - Soviet forces conquer Hungary and Germany. The Germans strip France and the Low Countries to defend Germany. British forces land in Belgium and the Netherlands, but simply lack muscle to go any further.
Soviet forces push into France, putting the Communist wing of the Maquis into power, and then restoring the Spanish Republic under Red control. British forces liberate Denmark; also parts of northern France, but after the German surrender these are handed over to the Red government of France.
A group of Spanish nationalists flee to the Balearic Islands, and holds out there against the Reds, becoming an outlaw state of sorts. (Neither Red nor Blue, per the map.)
And there you have it, I think.