Map Challenge 2005

Glen

Moderator
Wendell said:
Sounds...gloomy...and far-fetched...

Gloomier than our own timeline? At least this one never had the holocaust.

Which parts do you find far-fetched about what I suggest?
 
Glen Finney said:
Gloomier than our own timeline? At least this one never had the holocaust.

Which parts do you find far-fetched about what I suggest?
You're right there. This world won't be all bad. I guess the events in Europe following the Great War seem very unusual...
 

Glen

Moderator
Wendell said:
You're right there. This world won't be all bad. I guess the events in Europe following the Great War seem very unusual...

You're still being rather vague.

Which part is unusual? That the German Empire and A-H relation would sour? It had before, and could very well under Emperor Karl faced with Kaiser Bill.

The nuclear bomb? Look up the people involved...most of them were from the former Austria-Hungary. If A-H didn't collapse at the end of WWI, it is very plausible that the first nation to develop the nuclear bomb would be A-H.

Is there something else?
 
Glen Finney said:
Gloomier than our own timeline? At least this one never had the holocaust.

Which parts do you find far-fetched about what I suggest?

Austria-Hungary coming out of WWI in good enough shape to hold together through the 30's to begin with, let alone holding together through a serious fight with Germany, not to mention taking the risks of a confrontation with Germany in the first place.

The Kaiser actually having any power to speak of two decades after WWI...if democracy somehow does _worse_ in a Germany which has pulled off at least a partial victory in WWI, it's hard to see this being much of a benefit to Kaiser Bill, which had essentially been sidelined by the military by the end of WWI.

Bruce
 

Glen

Moderator
B_Munro said:
Austria-Hungary coming out of WWI in good enough shape to hold together through the 30's to begin with,

And why shouldn't it? Because of ethnic tensions? This war went a little better, and a little shorter, and was sold to the populace of A-H as a win. Then significant reforms under the Emperor helped diffuse even more. The nationalists in A-H turned more to increased representation within the empire than breaking away from the empire. The A-H economy was on the upswing before the war, and with a happier conclusion could have built on that.

let alone holding together through a serious fight with Germany,

Which wouldn't happen until a couple decades later. Do you really think the Hungarians, Croats, Slovenes, etc want to have the GERMAN EMPIRE win such a conflict? There will be a Pan-Germanic fifth column within A-H during the war...

However, the nation is so large, and with France being picked off first, they do hold on through the course of the war, until the Soviet intervention and finally the A bomb wins the day.

I would think that the prestige of being one of the winners of the war, and of A-H science developing the A-Bomb, would go a long way to holding together the nation as well as the threat of the Soviets which is a good deal closer now.

not to mention taking the risks of a confrontation with Germany in the first place.

They didn't start the war, the Germans did.

The Kaiser actually having any power to speak of two decades after WWI...if democracy somehow does _worse_ in a Germany which has pulled off at least a partial victory in WWI, it's hard to see this being much of a benefit to Kaiser Bill, which had essentially been sidelined by the military by the end of WWI.

Bruce

A military that would still politically answer to the Kaiser. Granted, it may be the military and then Kaiser Bill, but Wilhelm would still have a lot of power in this Germany, and I could see him becoming harsher in domestic policy as he ages, and goading his generals into another war for the glory of the Reich.
 
Glen Finney said:
And why shouldn't it? Because of ethnic tensions? This war went a little better, and a little shorter, and was sold to the populace of A-H as a win.

If it's a stalemate as you suggested, it's going to take at least as long as OTL. And A-H was falling apart, to a considerable extent held together by German forces, by the time war ended in our TL. And what exactly has Austria won that the Czechs, the Poles, the Croats, etc. can be enthusiastic about? The economy has been wrecked, hundreds of thousands are dead, and now comes the fun of keeping a conquered Serbia down.

Glen Finney said:
Then significant reforms under the Emperor helped diffuse even more.

I'd like to hear about these reforms, and how reforms that make the Croats. Czechs, Romanians, etc. happy fail to piss off the Germans, Magyars...I'm not saying it's impossible, but the empire has taken a body blow, and it's going to be tricky to find a balance that doesn't seriously piss off some groups.

Glen Finney said:
The nationalists in A-H turned more to increased representation within the empire than breaking away from the empire. The A-H economy was on the upswing before the war, and with a happier conclusion could have built on that.

"Happy conclusion." You mean, the way the British, the Italians, the French in our TL were all so happy and enthusiastic and self-confident after their victory?


Glen Finney said:
Which wouldn't happen until a couple decades later. Do you really think the Hungarians, Croats, Slovenes, etc want to have the GERMAN EMPIRE win such a conflict? There will be a Pan-Germanic fifth column within A-H during the war...

Ok. I can see a slowly recovering AH trying to steer a more independent course after the war, trying to avoid German puppetdom, but I have trouble seeing AH actually moving into alliance _against_ the Germans. The Austrians are unlikely to go for it, and Austria's geographic position makes a defensive position hard at best: that's a pretty long border they've got with Germany. If Austria is moving in the direction of a democratic federation (and given the Hungarian insistence on Magyar domination with the lands of St. Stephen's crown on one hand, and the Sudeten German's probable reaction to being dominated by Czechs on the other hand, this is not going to be easy), I'd see them moving in the direction of careful neutrality in the case of another war: too much chance of the whole system falling messily apart if they side with one group or another.

Glen Finney said:
However, the nation is so large, and with France being picked off first, they do hold on through the course of the war, until the Soviet intervention and finally the A bomb wins the day.

It's not a nation, it's a state at best, and more likely a federation by this point. Not that big, really: not that much bigger than France, and most of it's industrial areas are fairly close to Germany. I find the rapidity of the development of the bomb, given the limited resources of the UK, a bit iffy too, although this may be because I don't have a real sense for the dates involved. When does the UK start it's atom bomb project? When does the war start and end?

Glen Finney said:
They didn't start the war, the Germans did.

Why should the Germans attack AH? Oh, the Austrians were allying with the French. But why? I suppose we can have an excuse for all this if Germany goes Crazy Mad Right Wing after the war, but that is not really implied. Nations generally tend to seek some degree of Detente with countries that can Hurt Them Really Bad, and unless the Germans are a truly existential threat, one would think the Austrians would find it simpler to send the Germans an occasional birthday card and make nice rather than get into provocative and risky alliances which do little to guarantee their safety.

Glen Finney said:
A military that would still politically answer to the Kaiser. Granted, it may be the military and then Kaiser Bill, but Wilhelm would still have a lot of power in this Germany, and I could see him becoming harsher in domestic policy as he ages, and goading his generals into another war for the glory of the Reich.

What sort of Germany are you seeing? There was a strong trend of democratization OTL, and if that continues by the late 30's the German Social Democrats are going to have more of a say in what the army does than the Kaiser. If, on the other hand, democracy is squished in Germany, either by military dictatorship, alliance army and conservative forces with far-right political parties, or the rise of a "fascist" man-on-a-horse (least likely, in the case of a Germany which has won more-or-less: OTOH, Mussolini), whoever is running the show is unlikely to let the Kaiser continue to hold onto his "supreme warlord" title. A "royal" dictatorship on the Serbian or Romanian models seems improbable.

So, to make this semiplausible - a Germany, battered and exhausted by the war, which ends with far less of a "victory" than promised. An agressive left, blaming the continued economic hardships and the bungled victory on the right. Lots of discharged soldiers, hardened to violence and available for private armies, as in our TL...we could end up with some sort of dictatotoship, or perhaps a right-wing governing coalition which shuts the Left out of power, and perhaps simply makes it illegal at some point.

Such a *fascstic Germany might well find an ally in Mussolini's Italy, and find a cause in splitting up the "corrupt" Austrian Empire and "reuniting" Austria and Bohemia with the German empire...perhaps post-war the Empire might be reconstituted as a barrier to Soviet expansion, in some sort of federal format (although I suspect the Hungarians might still make problems, and wartime collaboration of Austrians and Sudetenlanders might make things still more difficult).

I really still have trouble seeing it absorbing that big chunk of Germany proper, though.

best,
Bruce
 
Glen Finney said:
You're still being rather vague.

Which part is unusual? That the German Empire and A-H relation would sour? It had before, and could very well under Emperor Karl faced with Kaiser Bill.

The nuclear bomb? Look up the people involved...most of them were from the former Austria-Hungary. If A-H didn't collapse at the end of WWI, it is very plausible that the first nation to develop the nuclear bomb would be A-H.

Is there something else?
Well, I'm not sure that this deal would truly benefit Austria in the long run. Really, the Austrian war effort was taken over by Germany early on in the war in OTL....
 

Glen

Moderator
Glen said:
Here's a map for 2005, based on speculation from a single POD. Can you figure out roughly what POD would lead to this map by 2005?

Ah, Austro-Hungary-Poland! This was a fun one based on the premise of an early Bryan presidency leading to a truly isolationist USA.
 
tinfoil said:
Europe doesn't get object lesson of ACW. So Germany/Prussian observers do not develop breech-loading needle gun, so France wins decisive war in 1870
Geeez. The Prussian' win in 1870-1 had nothing to do with breech-loading rifles - after all both sides had them and the French - was better. Besides the first breech-loading gun was put into Prussian service in... 1841. I honestly don't see how a conflict that took place 20yrs later could influence gun development before that war even happened.:rolleyes:
 

Glen

Moderator
Need to revise and extend this timeline someday. I like the idea of the early Bryan presidency leading to a truly isolationist USA, and then seeing the possible effects on world history.

I think South America and Africa probably need some further attention ITTL. Also have to recall why the British end up with an India Dominion.
 

Glen

Moderator
I did enjoy the Bryan as president POD. It's one I like to revive every once in a while. I suppose one day I may even do more with it.
 
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