Maori colonise Tasmania?

The late 18th/early 19th century saw rapid growth in the Maori population thanks to the introduction of the potato, as well as massive warfare caused by this and made worse by the introduction of firearms. Many people were displaced.

A group of Maori in this period infamously attacked a European ship and got transport to the Chatham Islands, where they eventually killed and enslaved the native peoples and effectively acted as a colonial power. What I'm interested in is what if groups of Maori attempted to settle on Tasmania in a way similar to the Chatham Islands (with or without the genocide and slavery, but that's probably inevitable)?

The biggest problem is there's a very small window of time for this to happen before European control is complete (no later than 1820 OTL), but if you gave the Maori the potato maybe a decade or two earlier and delayed/slowed down the European settlement of Tasmania a decade or so, what might happen? Could the Maori ever establish themselves as a significant minority group in Tasmania? How might their relations with the British be? Would they get their own version of the Treaty of Waitangi or might the Tasmanian government treat them substantially harsher than New Zealand ever treated the Maori?
 
The aboriginal Tasmanians would probably be able to evade the Maori pretty well. Tasmania is a lot larger than the Chathams, and the Tasmanians were quite capable of going to ground when necessary.

I do not see the British tolerating any such colonization project from the Maori. Any Maori settlements on Tasmania would be a potential threat to white settlers, and a challenge to British power if they conquered and colonized independently of British desires. I'd expect that any Maori Tasmanians would either be shipped back to New Zealand by the military or killed outright by armed civilians.
 
So at some point there would be a conflict between the British-backed settlers and the recently arrived Maori (maybe 1,500 people--let's say two waves of colonists plus whatever native slaves are willing to help), of which the Maori would lose? I don't know how many Maori women were present in the Chathams of the 900 or so who invaded, but most of the Maori settlers would be men, many who had combat experience. It would be a difficult war to undertake with the limited population of Tasmania at the time, and would probably require making deals with some of the convicts there. They also wouldn't have any Maori allies (but they could get Tasmanian Aboriginals as allies) unlike in New Zealand since presumably these Tasmanian Maori groups would already be allies (at least initially). So I think a war against them would have to be a progressive campaign of displacement and deportation.

Of course, I don't see the Maori as winning a conflict--the best they can get is a Waitangi-like treaty guaranteeing them something (and probably protecting them from being deported).
 
Also, what might the Maori call Tasmania? It was known as Van Diemen's Land at the time, so would they use as a Maori form of that term, or would they innovate their own?
 
I wonder if you'd need to go much earlier, say to around the time when the Maori colonised New Zealand, or perhaps a little later than that. This would probably also mean Maori settlements in VIC & NSW too, maybe also QLD, but could satisfy the condition of Tasmania being colonised. Crossing that sort of distance across an ocean is certainly within their capabilites.
 
I wonder if you'd need to go much earlier, say to around the time when the Maori colonised New Zealand, or perhaps a little later than that. This would probably also mean Maori settlements in VIC & NSW too, maybe also QLD, but could satisfy the condition of Tasmania being colonised. Crossing that sort of distance across an ocean is certainly within their capabilites.

The rest of Australia would be difficult because the Aboriginals were thick on the ground (especially Queensland). But Tasmania was very underpopulated for Aboriginal Australia, and the Tasmanian Aboriginals had a more "primitive" material culture than the rest of the continent which would let the Maori outcompete them. I suspect the Maori (or their ancestors) had at some point reached Australia/Tasmania (the currents seem to favour that), but we have no evidence of that although it probably happened. Perhaps they never returned so their stories never entered into legend. And the Aboriginals would be too difficult to compete against without an advantage from disease, gunpowder, armour, etc, although much of the East Coast of Australia would respond well enough to Maori agriculture (better than most all of New Zealand, at least).

The main issue with early settlement--the Maori need better crops. Their agriculture was basically breaking down in South Island, and Tasmania with a similar climate will not do any better.

That's why I think the best opportunity is sometime during the early Musket Wars era--we have the Chatham Islands example, we know the Maori were well aware of Australia at this time, and the Maori have potatoes at that point which were fueling a population boom at home in Aotearoa (and indirectly a cause of the Musket Wars). I suppose if you got the potato transmitted (how, by means of Rapa Nui?--that's an entirely different POD) to New Zealand, you could have an earlier settlement, but that narrow window at the turn of the 19th century seems to be by far the best (as well as most recent) time this could happen.
 
Why was their agriculture breaking down?

It was basically kumara (basically sweet potato) and some sort of fern native to New Zealand. The preparation of the fern was labour intensive for relatively low yield. The kumara had to have special enclosures facing the sun to grow at all, for also a very small yield (when compared to what they'd get on North Island especially in the far north). That's why South Island never had much population and why it kept on being replaced/assimilated by invaders from North Island, and likewise why pre-19th century Maori agriculture would do poorly on Tasmania. Once you take away the agricultural advantage, the Maori don't have too big of an advantage over the Tasmanian natives.
 
Although this isn't really what the thread is asking for, there was one proposal (that didn't get very far) during the Black War in Tasmania that Maori warriors should be taken over to Tasmania to enslave the Aboriginals. Although this would probably result in them taking Aboriginals back to New Zealand rather than staying in Tasmania. Replacing the natives with a generally more warlike and physically-imposing people isn't really in the interests of settlers.
 
Although this isn't really what the thread is asking for, there was one proposal (that didn't get very far) during the Black War in Tasmania that Maori warriors should be taken over to Tasmania to enslave the Aboriginals. Although this would probably result in them taking Aboriginals back to New Zealand rather than staying in Tasmania. Replacing the natives with a generally more warlike and physically-imposing people isn't really in the interests of settlers.

Very interesting.

It definitely wouldn't end well, particularly if the Maori can find a way to stay. Maybe that would pique Maori interest in Tasmania enough they get ideas to settle.
 
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