Maoist radicalism wins out in China-- How big of a boost for international Maoism?

[Elidor]

There are probably a lot of ways to have the radicals win out, but let's consider a POD where Mao Zedong dies in '68 or '69 and Lin Biao succeeds him as the most powerful man in China. In this case, it is more than likely that there would be no meeting with Nixon, no "reform and opening up", no repudiation of the Cultural Revolution and most importantly for this WI, China would still encourage revolution elsewhere and support radical pro-China parties around the world.

A part of Lin's worldview was that the world situation in the 60s was analogous to Chinese situation during the people's war where colonial and underdeveloped nations were the "global countryside", and were contrasted with the developed nations ("global cities"). World revolution, then, was the act of beseizing the developed world through spread of armed struggle in the Third World. In a TL, where Lin Biao is around for a longer time, we can expect a lot of support for insurgencies in the Third World.

Another issue for the Maoists in OTL was doctrinal confusion due to theoretical inconsistencies and policy "zig-zags" taken by Mao. Maoism progressed from modestly declaring Mao as simply a more consistent follower of Marxism-Leninism than the Soviet leadership in 1961 to building a personality cult proclaiming Mao as a genius who invented a whole new stage of Marxism and then abruptly shying away from the said personality cult afterwards. It also went from berating the soviets for not being anti-US enough to being downright chummy with the US and reactionary pro-US regimes under the "Three Worlds Theory". To a lot of people, Maoism seemed confusing at best, or a downright betrayal of anti-imperialism at worst. This disadvantaged international Maoism in the 1970s, with many radicals abandoning Maoism to become Hoxhaists or simply returning to the Soviet fold. In TTL, Maoism is likely to follow a more straightforward path towards greater radicalism and remain fervently anti-US.

OTL Maoists would still be around, and likely be much stronger:

Abimael Guzmán (a.k.a Gonzalo) had already visited China in '65 and was a convinced Maoist before the POD -- so the Shining Path insurgency will probably still happen TTL. To what extent can a radically Maoist China support Gonzalo? What would be his chances TTL?

Similarly, the Naxalbari Incident had also already catalyzed radical leftists in India, and was even praised in People's Daily. Furthermore, one of the major splits in CPI(M-L) was along pro-Lin / anti-Lin lines during the campaign to "criticize Lin Biao". This split would not happen TTL, resulting in a more unified Naxalite movement. Neither would Lin ask the Indian radicals to support Pakistan in 1971 war as Mao historically did. A stronger Chinese-supported Naxalite movement still might not overthrow the Indian state, but will probably cause a lot of headaches for India in this TL, perhaps outranking the Kashmir issue as domestic problem number one. What would be knock-on effects of this?

I don't know what will happen to the NPA in the Philippines. Wiki says it was formed around 1969, it might still form TTL. What are the chances of the Philippines going Maoist? TKP/ML might still form in Turkey, but there is not a whole lot of ways in which they can get material support from the Chinese. As for Nepal, the Chinese supported the Nepali king as a Sihanouk-type figure during the cold war, but progressive radicalization of Chinese foreign policy might change this. A Nepali Maoist movement-- if it still forms in TTL-- might be able to pull off a victory with Chinese Support.

Where else can Maoist insurgencies take hold? Can we have Che committing to Maoism and not dying in Bolivia? What happens to Maoist and pro-China communist parties in the First World? If Maoist China survives past 1989, would Maoism become the most "mainstream" communism as the USSR falters?

In short, what would the most plausible Mao-wank scenario? Any thoughts?

 

[omnimercurial]

Interesting possibilities.

Subscribed!

 

[Plumber]

Assuming there isn't a Sino-Soviet nuclear war, which is always a possibility with more Maoism...

Che was a Maoist IOTL. Had he lived longer, the ideology would have gotten a huge boost in Latin America. Peru might end up the Cambodia of Latin America.

The Khmer Rouge was basically Maoism-on-crack. Though Maoists distance themselves from the Khmer Rouge today, as long as the Vietnamese-Cambodian War still happens, Chinese support for the Khmer Rouge will have an added ideological embrace. Many at the time noted the Chinese support of the Khmer Rouge was extremely cynical, as China had repudiated Maoism domestically but was encouraging its most radical form abroad. It was just anti-Vietnamese and anti-Soviet realpolitik, but a Maoist China would play up the shared ideology between the two.

 

[Wendell]

I really don't see Maoist movements being successful in the Philippines; the islands are too important to U.S. interests at this juncrure.

 

[eliphas8]

Maoism would actually probably do better without Mao implementic it fully to his vision. It has far more power as an idea unconnected to his incompetent economic policies.

 

[Anaxagoras]

OTL Maoists would still be around, and likely be much stronger

If China had become more Maoist rather than move towards free market reforms, the entire country would eventually have gone down like the Hindenburg. Not exactly an example that anyone else around the world would have liked to emulate.

Che was a Maoist IOTL. Had he lived longer, the ideology would have gotten a huge boost in Latin America.

No, it wouldn't have. Even before he was captured and killed, it had become obvious that Che's "revolution" in Bolivia was an absolute dud that had no support.

 

[Plumber]

If China had become more Maoist rather than move towards free market reforms, the entire country would eventually have gone down like the Hindenburg. Not exactly an example that anyone else around the world would have liked to emulate.

There were Maoists IOTL, while China was burning itself. There would be Maoists ITTL, while China was burning more. Eventually, I think a surviving Maoist China would end up with the Cultural Revolution degrading into outright civil war, so Maoists abroad would be cut off from their patron after that happens.

No, it wouldn't have. Even before he was captured and killed, it had become obvious that Che's "revolution" in Bolivia was an absolute dud that had no support.

Oh, sure, I don't dispute that. But Che was a popular anti-imperialist symbol. Maoism would have gotten a huge boost with him around. It's rather easy to give something a huge boost when it was almost irrelevant IOTL, except in Peru. I expect there to be more of Che's "revolutions" after Bolivia, and I expect them to be as successful as Bolivia.

 

[Alternate History Geek]

Assuming there isn't a Sino-Soviet nuclear war, which is always a possibility with more Maoism...

How likely is it, and how much damage would it do?

Could we even have a three-cornered nuclear war between China, the USSR, and the US?

 

[Wendell]

How likely is it, and how much damage would it do?

Could we even have a three-cornered nuclear war between China, the USSR, and the US?

There's no basis for U.S. involvement.

 

[eliphas8]

There were Maoists IOTL, while China was burning itself. There would be Maoists ITTL, while China was burning more. Eventually, I think a surviving Maoist China would end up with the Cultural Revolution degrading into outright civil war, so Maoists abroad would be cut off from their patron after that happens.


Oh, sure, I don't dispute that. But Che was a popular anti-imperialist symbol. Maoism would have gotten a huge boost with him around. It's rather easy to give something a huge boost when it was almost irrelevant IOTL, except in Peru. I expect there to be more of Che's "revolutions" after Bolivia, and I expect them to be as successful as Bolivia.

And that would really hurt the movement. What Maoism needs is to actually have an example of someone following the textual ideas of peasant supremacy to improve their lives and making the world a better place for this to catch on. Maybe some kind of Maoist preaching state which focuses on land reform, Kibutz systems, mass education, and economic equality could bring the movement to the forefront in Africa and South America. Also we need to find a way to kill Mao before the great leap forward so that his ideas can live on without his poor implementation to muddle the issue.

 

[Anaxagoras]

But Che was a popular anti-imperialist symbol. Maoism would have gotten a huge boost with him around.

One could say that, as a symbol, Che was much more powerful after he had been killed than he had been when he was alive.

 

[eliphas8]

One could say that, as a symbol, Che was much more powerful after he had been killed than he had been when he was alive.

You don't need to say that. It's the truth.

 

[Plumber]

How likely is it, and how much damage would it do?

Could we even have a three-cornered nuclear war between China, the USSR, and the US?

The USSR asked the US permission if they could preemptively nuke China to the Stone Age in 1969. Already planning to reconcile with China, Nixon said no. A more nutty Maoist China could escalate things to the point where the Soviets simply inform America that the US will not be targeted, and proceed with a Chinese Holocaust.

No.

You don't need to say that. It's the truth.

It is. But he was a general revolutionary symbol. A living Che would work towards making Maoist insurrections in particular successful. It probably wouldn't go so well, but at least these Maoist insurrections would exist.

 

[Elidor]

Interesting discussion so far. One thing that needs to be mentioned is that Lin Biao was often at odds with Jiang Qing-- while radical when it came to his anti-imperialist foreign policy, Lin secretly had much disdain for the Cultural Revolution, calling it a "Culture-less Revolution". Another thing to consider is that Zhou Enlai will most likely survive till '76 just as he did OTL-- and will be the kingmaker in any conflict between Lin and Jiang Qing, as well as the elder statesman in Chinese Politics. Moreover, Lin will have some legitimacy as a revolutionary general while Jiang Qing will just be an actress who happens to be the late Chairman's widow.

The upshot of this is that Lin Biao will probably ally with Zhou Enlai along the lines of "I'll use the PLA to stabilize things domestically, while you support me in any power struggle". The subsequent purges can be used to convince the world that Maoist China isn't as "crazy" anymore and can be reasoned with. It can also be used by Lin to push a limited (and likely temporary) detente with the USSR.

Assuming there isn't a Sino-Soviet nuclear war, which is always a possibility with more Maoism...

Yes, this IMO is the problem with continued Maoist radicalism.

So what can we do to avoid such a scenario? Perhaps Brezhnev would be convinced to trust Lin more than he trusted Mao. Lin's enemies in China always portrayed him as too pro-Soviet. Maybe for once, he can use it to his advantage. This, combined with new negotiations could buy enough time for China to develop a level of nuclear deterrence against the Soviets. The Chinese do not have to be able to wipe the USSR off the map-- but just be able to cripple it enough so that it can't stand up to the US anymore.

..Or, to go for the dystopic angle, we could go for a Sino-Soviet "Cuban Missile Crisis" with Chinese Rockets in Albania leading to a war 5 years or so later with more Nukes and perhaps a Yugoslav-Albanian war. For once, the Albanian bunkers will be used

Che was a Maoist IOTL. Had he lived longer, the ideology would have gotten a huge boost in Latin America. Peru might end up the Cambodia of Latin America.

Che was an anti-revisionist who praised Stalin, saw the USSR as too soft and generally appreciated China, but Che's "Focoism" deviates somewhat from the Maoist doctrine of Protracted Peoples War. PPW, in my opinion, is a much more effective and flexible than Focoism (which only worked because of the situation in Cuba was bad to begin with). Perhaps ITTL, Che heads to China instead of Bolivia, meets Guzman, and decides to follow the latter back to Peru instead.

Though Maoists distance themselves from the Khmer Rouge today

Not all of them do. There are, surprisingly enough, pro-KR Maoists out there today.

as long as the Vietnamese-Cambodian War still happens, Chinese support for the Khmer Rouge will have an added ideological embrace.

True. This, combined with Lin Biao's "global peoples war" strategy might see more troops and supplies sent to Phnom Penh than OTL. Lin Biao, being a military general, might supplement Mao's "Down to the Countryside" movement by sending thousands of former Red Guards on "internationalist duty" in Cambodia, perhaps much like Cuban soldiers in Angola.

Of course, this does not bode well for Sino-Soviet relationship. Let's hope for the sake of China's continued survival, that they have built up sufficient nuclear deterrent when hostilities begin between Cambodia and Vietnam.

Maoism would actually probably do better without Mao implementic it fully to his vision. It has far more power as an idea unconnected to his incompetent economic policies.

People who really believed in Maoism tended to be blissfully ignorant of such measly details. And yes, Maoism in the '60s was powerful as an idea, even sexy. (Just go and watch a Jean-Luc Goddard movie from that time period )

Not exactly an example that anyone else around the world would have liked to emulate.

There were Maoists IOTL, while China was burning itself. There would be Maoists ITTL while China was burning more.

Precisely. None of the committed Maoists will care about bad living conditions and atrocities (or find a way to justify it away) as long as they are filled with revolutionary hope for a Maoist Millennium.

Eventually, I think a surviving Maoist China would end up with the Cultural Revolution degrading into outright civil war, so Maoists abroad would be cut off from their patron after that happens.

This might have happened if the wide-eyed idealists like the Shengwulian group and the more radical Red Guards continued to thrive after 1968. But by '68 their time was up. The "capitalist roaders" were removed from power, so the youthful radicals were no longer necessary. The PLA was moving in to restore order, and the red guards were beginning to be sent to the countryside where they won't cause any problems.

In the long run, a surviving Maoist China will turn out like North Korea, but with better propaganda and 100x the resources, and be more than willing to export its ideology. Of course, if things get too capitalist-roady, there is a always possibility of a second cultural revolution!

What Maoism needs is to actually have an example of someone following the textual ideas of peasant supremacy to improve their lives and making the world a better place for this to catch on....

Not it doesn't. All it needs is myth and Propaganda powerful enough to mobilize a bunch of people to commit to the Maoist cause. It happened in OTL, and will happen to a greater extent in TTL.

One could say that, as a symbol, Che was much more powerful after he had been killed than he had been when he was alive.

True. Maybe ITTL he gets killed in the Peruvian People's War becoming a Latin American Lei Feng in addition to what he already was. The Guevara myth will be even greater in TTL if Guzman eventually takes power in Peru.

 

[Plumber]

Interesting discussion so far. One thing that needs to be mentioned is that Lin Biao was often at odds with Jiang Qing-- while radical when it came to his anti-imperialist foreign policy, Lin secretly had much disdain for the Cultural Revolution, calling it a "Culture-less Revolution". Another thing to consider is that Zhou Enlai will most likely survive till '76 just as he did OTL-- and will be the kingmaker in any conflict between Lin and Jiang Qing, as well as the elder statesman in Chinese Politics. Moreover, Lin will have some legitimacy as a revolutionary general while Jiang Qing will just be an actress who happens to be the late Chairman's widow.

The upshot of this is that Lin Biao will probably ally with Zhou Enlai along the lines of "I'll use the PLA to stabilize things domestically, while you support me in any power struggle". The subsequent purges can be used to convince the world that Maoist China isn't as "crazy" anymore and can be reasoned with. It can also be used by Lin to push a limited (and likely temporary) detente with the USSR.

Yes, this IMO is the problem with continued Maoist radicalism.

So what can we do to avoid such a scenario? Perhaps Brezhnev would be convinced to trust Lin more than he trusted Mao. Lin's enemies in China always portrayed him as too pro-Soviet. Maybe for once, he can use it to his advantage. This, combined with new negotiations could buy enough time for China to develop a level of nuclear deterrence against the Soviets. The Chinese do not have to be able to wipe the USSR off the map-- but just be able to cripple it enough so that it can't stand up to the US anymore.

..Or, to go for the dystopic angle, we could go for a Sino-Soviet "Cuban Missile Crisis" with Chinese Rockets in Albania leading to a war 5 years or so later with more Nukes and perhaps a Yugoslav-Albanian war. For once, the Albanian bunkers will be used

Lin should be able to keep China together without nuclear hellfire happening, and tamp down the Cultural Revolution. That alone will make him popular. But I'd argue that Maoist radicalism doesn't truly win out under Lin Bao, because compared to the Gang of Four he's quite a moderate.

Che was an anti-revisionist who praised Stalin, saw the USSR as too soft and generally appreciated China, but Che's "Focoism" deviates somewhat from the Maoist doctrine of Protracted Peoples War. PPW, in my opinion, is a much more effective and flexible than Focoism (which only worked because of the situation in Cuba was bad to begin with). Perhaps ITTL, Che heads to China instead of Bolivia, meets Guzman, and decides to follow the latter back to Peru instead.

True, but he was more Maoist than Marxist-Leninist, which is what mattered. I do think Che's ego is probably big enough that he eventually breaks with China eventually.

Not all of them do. There are, surprisingly enough, pro-KR Maoists out there today.

It's not too surprising. Maoism has always been an ideology with more than a few screws loose. Modern Maoists are probably in their own league there.

True. This, combined with Lin Biao's "global peoples war" strategy might see more troops and supplies sent to Phnom Penh than OTL. Lin Biao, being a military general, might supplement Mao's "Down to the Countryside" movement by sending thousands of former Red Guards on "internationalist duty" in Cambodia, perhaps much like Cuban soldiers in Angola.

Of course, this does not bode well for Sino-Soviet relationship. Let's hope for the sake of China's continued survival, that they have built up sufficient nuclear deterrent when hostilities begin between Cambodia and Vietnam.

A more pragmatic solution would be to send millions of Red Guards to a less hotter flashpoint. Africa.

This might have happened if the wide-eyed idealists like the Shengwulian group and the more radical Red Guards continued to thrive after 1968. But by '68 their time was up. The "capitalist roaders" were removed from power, so the youthful radicals were no longer necessary. The PLA was moving in to restore order, and the red guards were beginning to be sent to the countryside where they won't cause any problems.

In the long run, a surviving Maoist China will turn out like North Korea, but with better propaganda and 100x the resources, and be more than willing to export its ideology. Of course, if things get too capitalist-roady, there is a always possibility of a second cultural revolution!

There's also the chance that the Gang of Four end up prevailing ITTL. If that happens, China ends up as North Korea crossbred with the Khmer Rouge. Drew does this in Fear, Loathing and Gumbo on the Campaign Trail '72, though with Mao Yuanxin ultimately sidelining Jiang Qing. The "Greater Mao" is ultimately seen in a much better light due to the horribleness of the "Lesser Mao," as amazing as that sounds.

 

[eliphas8]

snip

The OTL Maoists don't care, but people they are trying to move to revolution care. My point is that Maoism having a successful small scale success will do much more for the movement long term and allow it to grow more. Chinas problems where too well known to be widely popular. Something needs to happen to change this from OTL and it will be far weaker if China falls apart in a sea of blood and famine.

 

[Plumber]

The OTL Maoists don't care, but people they are trying to move to revolution care. My point is that Maoism having a successful small scale success will do much more for the movement long term and allow it to grow more. Chinas problems where too well known to be widely popular. Something needs to happen to change this from OTL and it will be far weaker if China falls apart in a sea of blood and famine.

What you are proposing is Maoism without Mao. That kind of ruins the point.

 

[mcdo]

And that would really hurt the movement. What Maoism needs is to actually have an example of someone following the textual ideas of peasant supremacy to improve their lives and making the world a better place for this to catch on.

Obviously that would be helpful, but I wonder if it is really necessary. This is an age before CNN. All China really has to do, I think, is talk big about rural poverty and the evils of colonial/neo-colonial exploitation of the undeveloped nations. They can make it hard if not impossible for foreign press to get into the nation. They can get sympathetic journalists in the rest of the world to print stories about "barefoot doctors" and how the rice harvest is up 1,000% year-on-year, while denouncing any (factual) stories that get out about starvation and laogai as lies spread by "revisionists" and a "capitalist plot". A lot of the news about true conditions will likely come from defectors, which will make it easier to discredit them as disloyal liars and traitors.

Frankly, I think it'd be possible for a Maoist China with a smart PR team to win converts regardless of the actual conditions within China, provided they are still contained to China.

 

[eliphas8]

What you are proposing is Maoism without Mao. That kind of ruins the point.

More what I'm proposing Maoism without the great leap forward or the cultural revolution. Killing off Mao before his incompetence at governing showed itself would help a lot there.

 

[eliphas8]

Obviously that would be helpful, but I wonder if it is really necessary. This is an age before CNN. All China really has to do, I think, is talk big about rural poverty and the evils of colonial/neo-colonial exploitation of the undeveloped nations. They can make it hard if not impossible for foreign press to get into the nation. They can get sympathetic journalists in the rest of the world to print stories about "barefoot doctors" and how the rice harvest is up 1,000% year-on-year, while denouncing any (factual) stories that get out about starvation and laogai as lies spread by "revisionists" and a "capitalist plot". A lot of the news about true conditions will likely come from defectors, which will make it easier to discredit them as disloyal liars and traitors.

Frankly, I think it'd be possible for a Maoist China with a smart PR team to win converts regardless of the actual conditions within China, provided they are still contained to China.

I don't think it's impossible to hide 50 million corpses. I mean word would get out, people would notice eventually.