Mao assassinated in late 1949.

By this time the Communists were on the path to victory, but what would happen if Mao was assasinated then? Perhaps at Stalin's command, maybe a KMT fanatic. How likely would it be for the Communists to split into various factions and the KMT maybe surviving in Southern China?
 
I am pretty sure Stalin would desire a puppet ruler answerable to Moscow like he did with Eastern Europe, not a KMT fanatic, if Mao were killed (that is, unless Stalin were to somehow see political benefit in having a KMT fanatic take over). Well, that's my 50 cents, though. Though given China's size (assuming China does not fracture) I am inclined to think that even then China will break with the Soviets eventually.
 
I am pretty sure Stalin would desire a puppet ruler answerable to Moscow like he did with Eastern Europe, not a KMT fanatic, if Mao were killed (that is, unless Stalin were to somehow see political benefit in having a KMT fanatic take over). Well, that's my 50 cents, though. Though given China's size (assuming China does not fracture) I am inclined to think that even then China will break with the Soviets eventually.


Not if China balkanizes, with Xinjiang a SSR and Soviet friendly republics in Manchuria, Mongolia, and Tibet, I think China proper would fall into Soviet sphere too.
 
Well, many people in the party can inherit Mao's seat, and the rule of the CCP is a collective leadership, so I don't think this would prevent CCP from victory.
However, the heir might have a different ideology (not so populism as Mao), and have a much lower prestige, so the influence of USSR would be much higher, and PRC may not join Korean war, at least without (very) strong support from USSR (maybe PRC will send volunteers when USSR do so, or let USSR arms the volunteers).
The Cultural Revolution may not happen.
 
Top