Manhattan Project without Fermi

Question for you nuke-heads out there: how critical is Enrico Fermi to the success of the Manhattan Project? I know it was his successful atomic pile in 42 that proved its validity. Could the other US scientists reach that goal in similar time? If not, how far is it, and Manhattan, delayed? Past war's end?

What if he's still in Italy? Say Mussie or his ATL successor never joins/forms the Axis? OTL Fermi and his Jewish wife left Italy for the US in '38 after BM enacted the antisemitic laws at Hitler's insistence. ATL no A-S laws or cozying up to Hitler, ergo no impetus to leave (or impetus to bury any conclusions for fear they'd reach Berlin, for that mater). I seriously doubt Italy is in any way capable of building nukes (not enough resources), but could be forerunners in post-war nuclear theory.

Thoughts?
 
Question for you nuke-heads out there: how critical is Enrico Fermi to the success of the Manhattan Project? I know it was his successful atomic pile in 42 that proved its validity. Could the other US scientists reach that goal in similar time? If not, how far is it, and Manhattan, delayed? Past war's end?

I can't really say anything for sure, here, but my personal estimation would be something between an year or two of delay. They were quite eager to have Fermi in the USA, IIRC.

What if he's still in Italy? Say Mussie or his ATL successor never joins/forms the Axis? OTL Fermi and his Jewish wife left Italy for the US in '38 after BM enacted the antisemitic laws at Hitler's insistence. ATL no A-S laws or cozying up to Hitler, ergo no impetus to leave (or impetus to bury any conclusions for fear they'd reach Berlin, for that mater). I seriously doubt Italy is in any way capable of building nukes (not enough resources), but could be forerunners in post-war nuclear theory.
Thoughts?

With no racial laws, Fermi probably stays in Italy and so the italian reasearch on nuclear theory keep up with the rest of world.
As soon as the first nuclear bomb is exploded, Mussolini will want "his" nuclear device. No matter how expensive, or unreasonable, it would be, fascist Italy would have become a nuclear power as soon as possible.
In this scenario Fermi would probably become the reasearch director with the not enviable duty of doing such a complex study while dodging the inevitable mass of burocrats appointed by Mussolini to "supervise the great endeavor".
We can also expect a few test in a suitable desert area of Ethiopia (or maybe not so deserted, we want to know the effects, don't we?)
 
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Blair152

Banned
Niels Bohr

Then we wouldn't have the Fermi Paradox. Would we? Or Fermilab, near
Chicago, Illinois. Enrico Fermi escaped from Italy because his wife was Jewish. He only came to the United States because he said he was going to
Switzerland to attend a scientific conference. If Bennie Mussolini had caught
on, there would have been hell to pay. Let's say he did catch on to Fermi's
little ruse. What's the ABSOLUTE WORST that could happen? In all seriousiness, he could have been shot. Who'd replace him on the Manhattan
Project? Probably Danish physicist Niels Bohr. The problem then becomes one of logistics. How could the British and Americans get Niels Bohr out of
Nazi-occupied Denmark without having him shot by the Gestapo?
How about a T-class submarine?
 
I can't really say anything for sure, here, but my personal estimation would be something between an year or two of delay. They were quite eager to have Fermi in the USA, IIRC.
Of course they were happy to have Fermi! But, barring him, someone else would have done the work. Szilard, maybe or any of lots of other people.

I don't think that the loss of Fermi would have made a huge difference in the project, ultimately. OTOH, if it delayed the project by a month (possible), then the bomb might theoretically not be available for Japan. Or at least not multiples of them.

Fermi, by himself, isn't going to do Italy much good. They don't have the massive industrial effort to sink into the project, nor probably, the materials needed. (e.g. hyper pure graphite is what the first US reactor used for a moderator).
 

Blair152

Banned
Of course they were happy to have Fermi! But, barring him, someone else would have done the work. Szilard, maybe or any of lots of other people.

I don't think that the loss of Fermi would have made a huge difference in the project, ultimately. OTOH, if it delayed the project by a month (possible), then the bomb might theoretically not be available for Japan. Or at least not multiples of them.

Fermi, by himself, isn't going to do Italy much good. They don't have the massive industrial effort to sink into the project, nor probably, the materials needed. (e.g. hyper pure graphite is what the first US reactor used for a moderator).
What if the British could smuggle Niels Bohr out of Denmark? Then you
wouldn't need Enrico Fermi.
 
What if the British could smuggle Niels Bohr out of Denmark? Then you
wouldn't need Enrico Fermi.
Here's a list of some of the physicists that DID work on the Manhattan project

Oppenheimer, von Neumann, Fermi, Serge, Bohr, Szilard, Feynman, Serber, Teller, Ulam, Morrison, Wigner, Rabi, Seaborg, Bethe, Lawrence, Alvarez, Weisskopf, Peierls.

Sure, Fermi was a big name, and Bohr didn't come until later, but there some other really top notch physicists there. Fermi was valuable, but nothing like indispensable.
 

Blair152

Banned
Here's a list of some of the physicists that DID work on the Manhattan project

Oppenheimer, von Neumann, Fermi, Serge, Bohr, Szilard, Feynman, Serber, Teller, Ulam, Morrison, Wigner, Rabi, Seaborg, Bethe, Lawrence, Alvarez, Weisskopf, Peierls.

Sure, Fermi was a big name, and Bohr didn't come until later, but there some other really top notch physicists there. Fermi was valuable, but nothing like indispensable.
I believe I mentioned Bohr. Don't forget Einstein. It was Szilard who convinced Einstein to write the letter to FDR. Einstein didn't actually work on
the Manhattan Project, per se, but he did get the ball rolling.
 
If you wanted to (I'm not), you also could make the case that without Fermi, the Manhattan Project could be accelerated OTL. IOTL, Fermi was among those in the project who wanted a slower pace and more experimentation. Instead of pressing ahead with a production pile, Fermi wanted the Chicago one to physically prove that controlling a chain reaction was possible, even though the mathematics were solid and everyone "knew" it would work.

He also demanded that the atomic bomb's neutron propagation be calculated, even though it was of marginal utility at that moment (it would prove immensely valuable post-war). He loved basic research among all things, which is why he spent most of his time in 1943 and 1944 arranging the construction of CP-2 at the Argonne National Laboratory -- he wouldn't let anyone else calibrate it once construction was complete -- and the construction of the heavy water reactor CP-3 in New Mexico, again used purely for research unrelated to the bomb project.

His work on the engineering of the various piles might have been duplicated by Walter Zinn and Szilard, but it's tough to tell since they all worked so closely together. His role as a "sage" whom physicists could discuss problems with also might be replaced by another man; several options exist.

But Nobel Prize-winning physicists don't grow on trees, and I imagine there's probably enough times when he helped out on the things that don't make it into the history books that at best the project would be on par with OTL and possibly more expensive because of the need to find engineering solutions to problems he solved.
 

Cook

Banned
Question for you nuke-heads out there: how critical is Enrico Fermi to the success of the Manhattan Project? I know it was his successful atomic pile in 42 that proved its validity. Could the other US scientists reach that goal in similar time? If not, how far is it, and Manhattan, delayed? Past war's end?

Wasn’t Fermi the guy that came up with implosion as well?
 
Seth Neddermeyer did some of the first work, but John von Neumann did a lot of the theoretical work and George Kistiakowsky translated it into reality.
 
Great stuff, all, thank you. I appreciate all the input. :)

It's sounding like it should plausibly be on track or slightly delayed...or things could even progress faster, assuming Fermi's "theoryitis" delayed things as Amerigo pointed out. Weird.

Basically "faster, slower, or about the same!" I could've told ya' all that! :p ;) :D

Hmm...stuff to think about. Even a few weeks' delay, as Dathi pointed out, could make a huge difference, particularly assuming the "Japan won't surrender without nukes" theory is correct.
 
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