Manchus don't invade China, who could be the new dynasty ?

During the general unrest of the 17th century in China, the Ming dynasty fell. Manchus probably accelerated the fall of the Mings, but the power was likely to cramble at one point or another. So, if Ming power definitely collapses, who could be the successor dynasty (not necessarily a name or a person, just a general idea of what kind of person it could be if you don't have any name that comes in your mind)
 

Kaze

Banned
Here is a good list:
1. Shun Dyansty already had the Capital and the Corpse of the former Emperor.
2. Zhan Xianzhong in Great West regime controlled Sichuan province. He was not the most mentally stable person and was accused of genocide.
3. Southern Ming.
Expect them to become like the Southern Song Dynasty.
4. Koxinga in Taiwan.
A former pirate that takes over Taiwan, then allies with the remains of the Southern Ming.

And a pic if it works

Southern_Ming.png
 
Without the manchurians, li zicheng kicks sangui's shit in at shanhai, probably turns south after. What was his relatinonship with xianzhong, anyone know?
 
Without the Manchus,the Ming Dynasty may very well survive.Peasant armies,no matter how big,were generally no match for government forces.The Manchus did a favour for the peasant rebels by successively wiping out the crack units of the Ming army,which allowed the peasant armies to even up with government forces in terms of experience.Without the Manchus,the government might not actually need to raise taxes which caused the revolts.
 
Depends on your POD I'd say. How do the Manchus not invade China? Because they are defeated by the Ming, or because Nurhaci never rises to power?

Regarding the former, I'd say the Shun would eventually take control of the North and sweep Southwards in time. Regarding the latter, I suppose Ming China might get roughed up by the effects of the Little Ice Age, but are here to stay barring anything unpredictable.

An interesting effect regarding the latter POD could be the food situation in Manchuria. AFAIK, the Later Jin (and then Qing) were undergoing a food crisis following the population boom that came with stability, and were as suchon the brink of starvation. Without their conquest in China, the Manchus could get hit hard by crop failures and eventually collapse hard.
 

Kaze

Banned
I have seen many timelines with successful Shun. I have not seen many with Zhan Xianzhong, the Southern Ming as the Southern Song, or Konxinga in Taiwan. It would be interesting to see these timelines.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Depends on your POD I'd say. How do the Manchus not invade China? Because they are defeated by the Ming, or because Nurhaci never rises to power?
Just make Li Zicheng not piss off Wu Sangui by killing his family and maybe bribe him enough that he declares for Li instead of making the deal to invite the Manchus in
 
Just make Li Zicheng not piss off Wu Sangui by killing his family and maybe bribe him enough that he declares for Li instead of making the deal to invite the Manchus in
I’m almost certain that regardless of whether Wu Sangui defected or not,the Manchus still have the means of successfully invading China.They were already able to make large raids into China while bypassing Shanhai Pass.
 
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