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Let's say for arguments sake that Spain and America never go to war so sometime in early 20th century Japan makes a play for the Philippines. Japan wins and gets bogged down occupying the Spanish Pacific.
So 1904-05 comes around and Japan and Russia don't go to war.
Now when things heat up in 1911 in Mongolia, what happens? Russia hasn't suffered a humiliating defeat in the Far East and is largely unquestioned in North Pacific. Does Russia push for a bigger Mongolia perhaps by adding Dzungaria to it? Or does Russia make a play for Mongolia and annex it outright (being more confident and wealthy in that part of the world)? Or does it go much like OTL?