Manchu Invasion of China Repelled

In this timeline, the Ming Dynasty successfully repels the Manchu invasion, defends Korea, and in retaliation, invades and conquers all Manchu land. How would Chinese history be different if there was no Qing Dynasty? How would the Ming Dynasty have handled European and Japanese imperialism?
 
Well I'll be paying attention to this, for sure. I'm sure you know it already, but by choosing this TL you could end up with some pretty political debates...
 
I doubt the feasibility of Ming conquest of Manchuria, to be honest.
It was teetering pretty bad following its intervention in the Imjin War.
 
Given how tottering the Ming Dynasty was by the time of the Manchu conquest, this is a rather unlikely outcome.

A Shun Dynasty conquest of Manchuria, however, may be reasonable.
 
Very difficult to say. Peasant rebellions often are.

At the very least, you're likely to see a radically less conservative society compared to Qing social stratification.
 
What a Shun Dynasty would like, compared to IOTL Ming and Qing?

The Shun Dynasty would have been the third peasant-led Dynasty to take control of China proper. I'd expect a lot of land redistribution - one of the features of the late Ming was the sheer amount of land being reserved for royal use (because all sons of royalty received land commensurate to their status). You'd see a further breakdown of the traditional gentry and aristocratic privilege in favour of Confucian-bureaucratic meritocracy, a process begun since at least the Song Dynasty.

Assuming Li Zicheng is astute enough to unite the country, avoid poor rule and die after a decent reign-length, I'd expect him to actually turn out quite like Zhu Yuanzhang, founder of the Ming Dynasty who had similar origins. Li's humble origins and especially his time on the wrong side of the law would have attuned him to both the 'arrogance' of the scholar-bureaucrats and also to the plight of the peasants.

Expect the Shun Dynasty to tilt towards agricultural promotion - hydraulic works, low taxation of peasants, suppression of mercantile projects, debt forgiveness, and so on. Also expect it to further strengthen Ming's already-formidable security apparatus to control the bureaucrats: harsh punishments, secret services (likely headed by eunuchs), and centralization of decision-making in the hands of the Emperor. I don't see China breaking out of insularity under such a dynasty, and there are few grounds for assuming it would turn liberal.

But one can always write up Li Zicheng as a tremendous visionary, I suppose. We don't know enough of him to really make concrete predictions.
 
Ming has fallen to internal rebellions, not foreign invasions. What they really needed was to be able to deliver southern grains to the northwestern provinces affected by famines...

I doubt the feasibility of Ming conquest of Manchuria, to be honest.
It was teetering pretty bad following its intervention in the Imjin War.
Given how tottering the Ming Dynasty was by the time of the Manchu conquest, this is a rather unlikely outcome.

A Shun Dynasty conquest of Manchuria, however, may be reasonable.
Well, not really conquest. But given some foresight and military competence, the Ming could defeat whoever emerged strong among the regional chieftains and keep a balance of power among the Jurchen kingdoms in the Northeast.

To do that, you don't really need to go as far back as Imjin, the only battle you need to change is Sarhu.

Well I'll be paying attention to this, for sure. I'm sure you know it already, but by choosing this TL you could end up with some pretty political debates...
As long as we stop using Late Ming, Early Qing histories as an analogy to modern politics, I'm sure this won't happen... :rolleyes:
 
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You'd see a further breakdown of the traditional gentry and aristocratic privilege in favour of Confucian-bureaucratic meritocracy, a process begun since at least the Song Dynasty.
Could you develop this process description a bit? I'm far from being familiar with.

Expect the Shun Dynasty to tilt towards agricultural promotion - hydraulic works, low taxation of peasants, suppression of mercantile projects, debt forgiveness, and so on.
What do you mean regarding this (except low taxation, that is more or less self-explaining)?

Also expect it to further strengthen Ming's already-formidable security apparatus to control the bureaucrats: harsh punishments, secret services (likely headed by eunuchs), and centralization of decision-making in the hands of the Emperor
Was it really different from Qing administration on this regard? I remember something about ennuchs being slaughtered or killing themselves during the conquest (It's far memories, so I can mix things or simply being wrong there), but that apart, was it much different?
 
Could you develop this process description a bit? I'm far from being familiar with.

In a nutshell, although China developed a process of bureaucratic selection as early as the Western Han in 100BC, the bureaucracy largely continued to be the exclusive preserve of landed clans, who formed a 'feudal class' that reached its apogee in the Jin and Southern Dynasties (c.300-600AD). These clans were a major constraint on imperial power, even into the Tang (c.600-900 AD). Contrary to the idea of Imperial China as meritocracy, epitaph research shows that lineage (mercantile and landowning as well as royal descent) remained a powerful determinant of social class throughout this period.

The warlordism of the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms (10th Century) utterly decimated these traditional clans, and starting from the Song meritocratic selection of the bureaucracy, exemplified in the famous examinations system, became the main determinant of class. Thus came the scholar-bureaucrat class, which admitted members on adherence to state-sanctioned Neo-Confucianism, and whose loyalty was only to the state.

Further central control over the selection of bureaucrats was enhanced during the Ming and Qing with examination standards (the so-called 'eight-legged essay), and the power of local gentry (even Ming princes) quickly reached its nadir - at least, until the decline of Qing government starting in the mid-1800s.

The emergence of the scholar-bureaucrat class also had great ramifications for the future development of China, not least in terms of the rigid Neo-Confucianism that became a requirement for social advancement, and its enablement of centralization and, later, absolutism as emperors defended their powers against the bureaucrats.

What do you mean regarding this (except low taxation, that is more or less self-explaining)?

As I posited, Li Zicheng would probably have a similar outlook as Zhu Yuanzhang, founder of the Ming, due to their similar circumstances. The late Ming peasant rebellions were fuelled primarily by a couple of factors: 1) bad harvests, 2) overtaxation, 3) accumulation of land by rich landowners who would then reduce peasants to increasingly serf-like conditions, 4) land speculation by merchants. The same things largely happened during the Yuan.

So I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Li Zicheng to, in Chinese-history speak, "look down with pity on the peasants" and to take action against their so-called tormentors, as well as tilting state economic policy in their favour. Zhu Yuanzhang certainly did that.

Was it really different from Qing administration on this regard?

Ming and Qing perceived different primary domestic threats. I think it's fair to say that for the Ming, the security apparatus was aimed at the bureaucratic class; for the Qing, the apparatus was aimed at the Han people. As such, Ming's security apparatus were actually agencies - the Eastern Depot, the Western Depot, the Inner Depot, and so on.

Qing's security apparatus, on the other hand, was essentially the Manchu people - Manchu quarters existed in every major Chinese city, and Manchus received much better training in arms than Han (during the Opium Wars, the British commented that they could have been good Sepoys). All government agencies had Manchu officials to look over their Han underlings, and you also had the collective-informing-and-punishment system of the baojia. Manchus were largely controlled through a web of inter-marriage and 'sharing the spoils'.

As such, Qing's agencies weren't anywhere as powerful as their Ming counterparts, which also meant that Qing eunuchs were not as powerful as their Ming counterparts. Qing was also... less sadistic (for the most part) towards its officials due to this, though it took perceived threats to its regime (the so-called Literary Inquisition) from the common folk extremely seriously.

Both dynasties did centralize intensively, however.
 
Had Li not be so thick-skulled and chose to placate Wu Sangui instead, Shunzhi wouldn't be able to get Wu to open the gates for the Manchurians and must either try to bribe someone guarding a section further west or engage in an artillery battle with Wu to bring down the Great Wall.
 
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