Manchester Gorton has been described as crucial for Prime Minister Ed Miliband’s position.
The long-time Labour seat is holding a by-election after the death of its MP, Sir Gerald Kaufman.
Mr Miliband has overseen a shaky government since Labour formed a minority government in 2015. While the economy has continued to gradually improve, Labour has been criticised for its confidence and supply deal with the SNP, a rise in deficit, and military action abroad.
The current US-UK relationship has been criticised by left-wing critics as too forgiving of President Trump, while the Conservatives and UKIP claim Mr Miliband undermining the special relationship. Mr Miliband has recently been at odds with Mr Trump over the treatment of British nationals at the US border.
Manchester Gorton is seen as a potential ‘make or break’, as it pits Labour against not just the Conservatives but a strong push from both UKIP and the new Momentum Party. The collapse of the Liberal Democrats in 2015, who had come second in the 2010 election, saw the Greens come second. This, combined with Miliband’s problems, is perceived as leaving Manchester Gorton vulnerable.
Afzal Khan, a local MEP, is running as Labour’s candidate after a competitive race. The Conservatives are still selecting their candidate but the local press has already seen planned Tory leaflets, which seek to present Labour as Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon’s puppet and not doing work for England.
Mr Khan has responded to that by saying, “one of our parties is actually working on a Northern powerhouse and the other just talked about it.”
UKIP has controversially put Arron Banks, a long-time financial supporter, forward as their candidate. His opponents have criticised him as being parachuted in. Mr Banks has already begun his campaign with a series of public rallies, focusing on UKIP’s policies of a European Union referendum and, as with the Tories, presenting Labour as “Scottish terriers”.
The fledgling Momentum Party, formed by left Labour defectors after the 2015 Syria vote – “the Christmas Massacre”, as leader Jeremy Corbyn controversially called it – have made local activist Sam Wheeler as their candidate. He has been part of Momentum’s rallies and push for local council votes.
All three opposition parties have a policy of a European referendum. Success by any of them could force Mr Miliband to agree to it.
Insiders have said Mr Miliband has no plans to stand down if the seat is actually lost. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said on the Andrew Marr Show yesterday, “the country is recovering under Labour, there is no point throwing all that into chaos over one seat.” Rumours, however, persist the ‘Cooperites’ might pressure Mr Miliband for changes on welfare policy if the seat is lost to the right.
The opposition parties also are facing ‘make or break’ situations.
Boris Johnson had seen an abnormally long ‘honeymoon’ period as Conservative leader and this has only ended recently, with his cautious support for Mr Trump. Winning the Gorton seat, or even just increasing the Tory vote, would help revive his momentum.
Sources in UKIP have said party leader Nigel Farage requires a win from Mr Banks. His leadership has been dogged by his own failure to gain a parliament seat, a rival faction in the more successful Welsh brand of the party, plummeting relations with the party’s sole MP, Douglas Carswell, and his so-called failure to step down as leader in 2015.
Winning Gorton would give Mr Farage an ally in Commons and reaffirm his mandate as leader. Sources in UKIP’s Welsh branch have said “Neil [Hamilton, Welsh leader] may make a move to save the party from Nigel” if Manchester Gorton is lost.
It’s the Momentum Party that is causing concern in Labour. They plan to campaign on what they call “failed promises” by Mr Miliband and, in an area with Muslim communities, on Syria and Iraq. While this is standard in Momentum’s by-election and council strategies, they are seen to have a greater chance of winning here than in last year’s Richmond Park by-election.
The Greens have formed a pact with Momentum and will not be running a candidate against them. A win by Mr Wheeler would give Momentum its fifth MP, following the “Gang of Three” (Mr Corbyn, Diane Abbott, and Dennis Skinner) and George Galloway.
John McDonnell, Labour’s ‘left’ leader and a friend of Corbyn, has said a win by Momentum would show “the soul of Labour is seen as rotted out.”
However, Momentum has been criticised for bad management of its campaigns – commentators expected a greater vote share in 2016’s councils that it achieved – and rumours of personality clashes with Mr Galloway. While it’s seen as having a chance in the race, a failure could see the party wounded.
It also runs the risk of being seen as ‘stealing’ votes from Labour and assisting a Tory or UKIP win.
As Mr Miliband’s allies have said, of course, winning Manchester Gorton will be seen as a mark in his favour: a seat seen as vulnerable would have been won, rival ideologies would have lost.
The country is moderately in favour of Mr Miliband’s challenges to Mr Trump and the economy is steadily improving. Winning a tricky by-election could give Labour a new shot in the arm.
And after two years of criticism from both UKIP and Momentum, Mr Miliband would be able to say that neither of them has a leg to stand on.