Malê Rising

Just a blue sky question since there's probably no way for it to be relevant to this timeline and no way it could have been if planned from the beginning--but what would it have taken, what sort of POD how far back, for the right wing of Italian unification to take the Papacy as its leader, and for the Papacy to adopt the agenda of unifying Italy as a big Papal State?

Would it involve a falling out with the Hapsburgs, overaweing them, or compromises like leaving Venice out of the Papal definition of "Italy?"

Of course for the Pope to take on the role of head of state of Italy would tend to compromise his role as head of the universal Church and many of his critics and detractors would point that out.

Anyway even though this scenario is not in the cards in this timeline, pointing out why it's impossible might help shed more light on the situation that does exist ITTL.
 
Just a blue sky question since there's probably no way for it to be relevant to this timeline and no way it could have been if planned from the beginning--but what would it have taken, what sort of POD how far back, for the right wing of Italian unification to take the Papacy as its leader, and for the Papacy to adopt the agenda of unifying Italy as a big Papal State?

Would it involve a falling out with the Hapsburgs, overaweing them, or compromises like leaving Venice out of the Papal definition of "Italy?"

Of course for the Pope to take on the role of head of state of Italy would tend to compromise his role as head of the universal Church and many of his critics and detractors would point that out.

Anyway even though this scenario is not in the cards in this timeline, pointing out why it's impossible might help shed more light on the situation that does exist ITTL.

Well, I'd say April 1848 was the last moment anything of the kind was even remotely in the cards, at least this was the contemporary viewpoint as far as I know.
After that, Pius IX distanced himself. The assassination of Pellegrino Rossi later that year was probably the last nail in the coffin of this idea, but it was really never much more than a pipe dream.
Of course, a POD where Pius dies can change things a bit, but I daresay that Piedmont would likely remain the hegemon of any Italian Unification movement after late 1848/early 1849.
 
I started reading this about a week ago, and...this is simply excellent! :D I love the creative POD involving the Male (whom I never heard off before this) and a Revolutionary Republic being set up in Africa. I'm only up to like the third or fourth update, but I can tell things are going to get very interesting.

Thanks! Please keep reading, and your thoughts are always welcome. I'm not sure how the Finished Timelines and Scenarios forum works - this timeline is far from finished - but I'll look into it.

Jonathon, given the bad memories of Avignon, I suspect that if the Italians did grab Rome, the Pope would again hole up in the Vatican. By doing so, he maintains his claim and is politically embarassing to them. A Pope outside the country can be easily ignored. There is also the point that the Pope's whole position revolves around him being the Bishop of Rome, heir to Peter. Difficult to execute away from it.

It's true that the Pope is the bishop of Rome, but the papacy has fled Rome several times in the past, and the fallout if Rome is seized by an anti-clerical Italian state in 1893 would be worse than OTL's 1870 seizure. There would be two more decades of nationalist bitterness, the Italian government (even, as Falecius says, much of the right wing) would be more hostile to the papacy, and the context of a global war in which Italy is lined up against a mostly-Catholic alliance might incline the govenment to curtail the Pope's activities. There may even, as Falecius has suggested upthread, be something of an Italian Kulturkampf, although in a country where almost everyone is nominally Catholic, it would have to be far less severe than the Prussian one.

I think I'll go with wolf_brother's suggestion that the Pope might flee to Spain - France is currently dominated by the anti-clerical, populist branch of the right wing rather than the Catholic parties. Wolf_brother, I believe you've mentioned that Cardinal Luigi Bilio might be elected pope in TTL; what do you think his attitude would be toward an evacuation to Spain? And would he be likely to take any particular regnal name, or should I just pull one at random from the usual list? (Calling him John XXIII might be suitably ironic.)

As Falecius says, the Pope in Spain would put pressure on the Spanish government to join the FAR alliance. Given that there are already widespread pro-French sympathies in both the government and the populace, this pressure might be hard to resist, although the ruling party will at least try.

Anyway, to sum up Italy - and I apologize for not responding to the comments individually - I'm going with the consensus that it is more liberal and anti-clerical than OTL, but that there are sharp differences both between right and left and (like TTL's France) within the right. Unrest and possibly revolution are possibilities, especially as the war drags on and the Alpine trenches become killing grounds.

The next update, which will be the last narrative post involving the BOGs' first year, will include a scene from Rome. The one after that will feature some narrative scenes from the FAR side, and then there will be a history-book post giving the bigger picture of the first year of war.

Excellent piece of fiction with Paulo Abacar the Younger! That's some great action. :)

Thanks! For the record, Paulo the Younger won't be nearly the soldier his father and grandfather were; he'll be conscientious enough about his military duties, but his experiences as a de facto diplomat and governor, especially the former, will be more formative. The professionals will eventually arrive to take over the war, but he'll have to keep the Kigoma district together in an area full of warlords and refugees.

His career will be quite different from his father's, as he has grown up in a different world.
 
Wolf_brother, I believe you've mentioned that Cardinal Luigi Bilio might be elected pope in TTL; what do you think his attitude would be toward an evacuation to Spain? And would he be likely to take any particular regnal name, or should I just pull one at random from the usual list? (Calling him John XXIII might be suitably ironic.

Well Bilio died IOTL in 1884; he might make it a few years longer ITTL, or not, but we're likely looking at someone else entirely come the Great War.

If I might suggest, if you're looking at a Papacy that flees to Spain, getting Bilio to live to at least just before the war breaks out, so a conclave is being called as the Italians prepare to move on Rome, could lead to someone like Mariano Rampolla being elected - young, liberal, and pro-Spanish/pro-French.

Regarding a papal name, there's no real rhyme or reason to them. Popes pick them for various reasons, usually choosing the name of a predecessor they wish to emulate. Statically speaking you're most likely to see a John, Gregory, Benedict, Clement, Innocent, Leo, or Pius. However the three previous Popes to style themselves Gregory, Leo, or Pius were all staunchly conservative, even reaction for Gregory & Pius, the last Innocent was something of a nobody do nothing, and as you allude to there hadn't been a Pope John for some six centuries at this point. The previous Benedict & Clement were both moderates that brought the church through though times, diplomatically, while reforming church doctrine, so Bilio would likely be either one of them IMHO.
 
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More scenes from the BOGs' first year

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There were fireworks in the Colosseum, and strangers were kissing solders. Near where Sergeant Testa was standing, a quartet of drunken corporals was singing something about Garibaldi’s dream, their voices mixing with the patriotic songs coming from throughout the amphitheater. Others were celebrating, boasting of victories to come, acting – although the wine surely had something to do with that – as if the war was already won.

For his own part, Testa was just happy they’d taken Rome without much of a fight. The French troops had evacuated days before, bound for the Bavarian front, and the city was defended only by a brigade of poorly-armed zouaves and the rabble of the Palatine Guard. They’d been brave enough when it came to that – at least the zouaves had – but they’d been outnumbered six to one, and even the courage of Horatius wouldn’t have helped them against such odds.

“Claudio!” someone called, and Testa turned to see a brother sergeant. “Come have a drink! Sacramental wine, I think, or maybe for the Pope to get drunk on – we liberated it from the Vatican an hour ago.”

“You’ve been across the river?” Testa answered, accepting the drink. “Any word of the Pope?”

“He fled, the coward! He’s on a ship! Bound for Spain, is what they say.”

“Bound to cause trouble,” Testa answered, his mood falling. Bad enough for the price of Rome to be war with France and Austria; would they now have to fight Spain as well, and half the priests at home into the bargain?

“Oh, don’t be a killjoy. Rome is ours, don’t you understand? We have Rome! Rome!” The declaration prompted a new round of cheers from those near enough to hear, and even Testa couldn’t find it in him to worry too much. He might be fighting in the Alps this time next week, but today, he had conquered Rome!

Around them, people were falling silent, and he turned around to see that Crispi had mounted one of the tiers of seats. How the prime minister had got there, Testa had no idea: he must have entered the city barely behind the army. But there he was, and it was entirely in character for him to be standing in the imperial box.

“Sons of Italy!” he shouted. “Brave soldiers! Children of Garibaldi!” The silence spread as more people realized whose voice was praising them.

“Today the Risorgimento is complete! For thirty years the Frenchman has kept us from Rome, but no longer – Rome is ours now, and you have made it ours!” He had to stop for a moment – even the prime minister had to yield as the crowd in the Colosseum cheered the victory and themselves.

“We have a hard fight ahead of us,” Crispi continued when finally he could. “Let no one mistake that. We face the might of France and Austria. The Bonapartes and the Habsburgs combine against us. But we will prevail, and when we do, we will hold not only Rome but Nizza, Fiume, Trieste. Savor today’s victory, but know that it will be the first of many!”

Testa cheered with the others, but wished he could be sure.


*******

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They’ll be coming soon, Max Klein knew. The rhythm was second nature to him by now: when the artillery stopped, the Russians would come over the top. And no sooner had he finished the thought than they did.

There were more of them than before – they must have nearly cleared the trench this time. They advanced at a fast walk, coming toward the North German positions in an inexorable line. But even as they did, they were falling.

Max traversed his machine gun and watched them go down. At this distance, it didn’t feel like killing. They were like toy soldiers; he would never see the wounds that his bullets tore open, and with his ears deafened by gunfire, he would never hear them scream.

But there were so many of them.

They’d beaten their heads against the German entrenchments for a week, but Max had no illusion that they would hold. Sooner or later the Russians would overwhelm them or get around their flank, and they’d retreat again like they’d done so many times before. They were buying time, no more than that – giving the armies to the west a chance to finish the main defensive line, the entrenchments that would run from the border to the sea.

That they were still buying time seven months into the war was a sign of their desperation – but what else could they do, fighting three nations at once? The Italians’ entry into the war, and the punishing losses the Russians were facing in the Balkan mountain passes, had eased things a little, but nowhere near enough. If winter and the main trench line didn’t stop them…

The Russians were much closer now – with that many coming across, even machine-gun fire couldn’t stop them all. They broke into a run for the last thirty meters. The North Germans hadn’t had time to place wire, and the way was clear for them; Max kept firing, but he was trying to hold back the tide, and he knew it.

He never saw the Russian soldier who reached the trench line ten meters from him, eager for revenge against the German machine-gunners. He did see the grenade, but not in time.


*******

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It was sometimes hard for Kolağasi Ahmet Fahri Yilmaz to figure out who was winning the war. Warfare in the desert wasn’t like it was in settled areas with their trenches and defensive lines; instead, it was a matter of raids and counter-raids, and Yilmaz couldn’t always tell whether his troop was a hundred miles behind the front or the same distance ahead of it.

For a while, the situation had appeared very bad – it seemed that he was always fighting further and further east, he’d heard that Tripoli had fallen, and he was fairly sure that one of his clashes with the French had taken place inside the Egyptian border. They said that Bornu was holding out with British aid, and that the French were bogged down north of the capital, but it was a long time since anyone had come from there with news, and the even the supply trains the Egyptians were letting through had become less and less frequent.

But then, a month or two ago, things had changed. The senior captain was fighting in the deep desert again, and while ammunition and food wasn’t arriving as often as he liked, he at least didn’t have to conserve every bullet as if it were gold. Maybe Tunisia had something to do with that – maybe the Italians were causing trouble behind the lines, or maybe the Frenchmen wanted to subdue them because they could cause trouble. Maybe it was something different altogether, and the French would be back in full force tomorrow.

For now, though, he’d take things as they were, and if he wasn’t sure who was winning the war, he damned well knew who’d won today’s battle. The double company escorting the French supply train never knew what hit them: it had all been over in minutes, with twenty Frenchmen dead and the rest captured, and the supplies they were guarding would never make it to the Bornu front.

The prisoners were lined up in front of him now, in fact, and the kolağasi had new orders about what to do with them – orders that added to his uneasiness about how the war was going, but which meant that he might end the day with more than a supply train as profit. “French soldiers!” he called in Arabic – he used that language deliberately, reckoning that the Senegalese and Algerian tirailleurs would understand it while the five or six actual Frenchmen wouldn’t. “You need not be prisoners. The Sultan offers all of you enlistment, and if you join the Ottoman army, you will receive honorable service, food and pay. We will send you to the Balkan front if you wish, so you won’t have to fight against France – or if you wish, you can serve here.”

“And if we don’t?” asked one of the Algerians, a sergeant from the look of him. Good, Yilmaz thought – if he went over, he’d bring many others with him.

“I’ll hand you over at the Egyptian border, and you’ll be taken to a prison camp in the Levant. You won’t be harmed, but you’ll be held for the duration of the war, or until someone exchanges you.” He stood and waited while the tirailleurs muttered among themselves.

The Senegalese, to a man, chose prison. Yilmaz could respect that; he was old-fashioned enough to admire loyalty even in an enemy. But about half the Algerians looked at him with frank calculation, and them, he might use.
 
I think this will really cement FAR at the Catholic alliance with some handwaving at Russia which could cause fun in Ireland. Also expect problems with Italian conservatives and Spanish anti-clerical types being very angry at being dragged into a war for the benefit of the Pope. Catalonia won't be pretty...

Will be interesting to see what will happen in the US, probably a slant in public sentiment towards BOG and perhaps some hungry gazes cast at Cuba with Spain now involved. Also I'm use the Americans aren't happy about European troops running around in Brazil.
 
Et in civitam aeternam sumus

I think this will really cement FAR at the Catholic alliance with some handwaving at Russia which could cause fun in Ireland. Also expect problems with Italian conservatives and Spanish anti-clerical types being very angry at being dragged into a war for the benefit of the Pope. Catalonia won't be pretty...

Will be interesting to see what will happen in the US, probably a slant in public sentiment towards BOG and perhaps some hungry gazes cast at Cuba with Spain now involved. Also I'm use the Americans aren't happy about European troops running around in Brazil.

About Spain, Catalonia was not much different from the rest of Spain, except for a bigger presence of the trade unions (at this time) so it should not be too different. However there had always been a very anti-clerical element among the Spanish liberals (left-wing), democrats (far-left) and a very clerical posture by "moderate liberals" (aka conservatives). Expect that with the arrival of the Pope, the political infighting in Madrid is going to get very nasty.

But since TTL Spain is more liberal it probably means it's less Catholic due to there being no restoration of the Church's social position during the Restauración borbónica, but still, this will only make political instability bigger.

Wonderful development for la madre patria ahead.

Btw, loving the war posts even more so than the pre-war ones (and that already quite difficult) :D
 
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Italy's in a terrible position, but with the Ottomans apparently holding against the French and the British in a position to resupply them from Egypt, they should be able to hold out quite well from the Alps.

It seems like the French are having troubles keeping their colonies loyal; between the Italians in Tunisia and the apparently restive Algerians, the French could be in trouble if the war goes on long enough.
 
Italy's in a terrible position, but with the Ottomans apparently holding against the French and the British in a position to resupply them from Egypt, they should be able to hold out quite well from the Alps.

It seems like the French are having troubles keeping their colonies loyal; between the Italians in Tunisia and the apparently restive Algerians, the French could be in trouble if the war goes on long enough.

Italy is fighting on the defensive here (as opposed to OTL in WWI, where we were supposed to be fighting on the offensive, with very very little success at that) and the terrain is excellent for defensive trench warfare, as Austrian performance IOTL sort of proves. Probably Italy will have to give SOME ground, possibly to the Piave line (maximum Austrian advance in 1918 IOTL) or even the Adige (that would be a serious blow) in the East. But the conditions of FAR offensives in the Alps are going to be terrible. I expect soldiers on both sides starving or freezing in winters more than dying under enemy fire. (it happened OTL on the Italian front, only here there are TWO Italian fronts, probably both nastier).
 
Is the offer to enlist in the Ottoman Army given only to Muslim French soldiers or extended to everyone?
It seems that the Port is desperate for manpower.

By the way, Italian entry in the war is going to alleviate a lot the manpower issues of the BOG side, though it does not suffice to even things, especially because a Spanish intervention is more likely (Italy had a far larger population than Spain at this point, but still.)
 
Some thoughts:
1) I can't remember whether it has been raised before, but Venezuela, other tha claiming Roraima out of Parà, holds quite a grudge with Britain about Guyana Essequiba. It may appear a good moment to settle scores with French support. Brazil is probably willing to let other South American countries to get some peripheral pieces of Amazon if they hope to get the largest share of the pie. Venezuela is probably the most likely among South American countries to join the FAR wholesale. That would make the Caribbean a theatre, though a minor one.
2) Related to the above, it looks like Spain is going to join the FAR as well. That will have FAR-reaching consequences (pun intended);). Caribbean will get hot, making US neutrality problematic. Cuba might revolt.
Portugal would be suddenly in a very awkward position, possibly conducive to a Portuguese civil war. In Spain, too, the move is likely not be taken kindly by the anti-clerical left, with possiblity of home unrest while the country is fighting for its life.
A Peninsular theatre might be where the trench stalemate breaks into a more mobile land war.
Spanish intervention, if it happens, has interesting effects for East Asia as well. If Japan enters the BOG sides, she will have to face a scaringly powerful set of enemies basically surrounding her on all sides: land war with Russia and probably China, sea war with France and Spain, the Brits stretched too thin elsewhere to be of much help. Quite a nasty corner, though Japan has many factors going in her favor.
3) It looks like Tunisia is towing Italian line. This makes sense with Italy being the paramount European power there and the Tunisian bey a theoretical vassal of the Ottomans. What's going on in Assab? I guess that tiny colony will be taken by either Russians or French before Ottoman forces in Yemen or British from Aden can do something about it, but if not, the Red Sea will be closed to the FAR.
Again about the Italian "sphere", what will Piratini do? Brazil is not firendly to them, but is also scaringly stronger, and allying with Argentina sounds awkward at the utmost. They might stay neutral while sending "volunteers" to fight for Italy, though sending significant fighting forces an ocean away is not very sensible when you have some wars involving your dangeours neighbors near your borders.
We'll see.
 
Italy against both France and Austria-Hungary?

We barely could defeat Austria-Hungary in OTL, and even then, the incompetence of our generals was staggering, we suffered heavy losses and we were almost defeated. Having to fight against France, too? Cazzo.

Falecius is right, though. As long as we'll wage defensive warfare, we should be relatively okay. And if we'll win, everything from Savoy to Dalmatia could be ours. Maybe. One of the clichès of Alternate History seems to be "if Italy wins a war, it will never get what it hoped to get". :D
 
Falecius, I'm not so sure. While I'll admit the Italian-Austrian border is perfect for defensive warfare for the Savoyards, the same cannot be said of the Italian-French one. Yes, it's certainly rocky, but it's not as bad. The Italians won't be able to just sit back there, the mountain passes are more numerous and easier to use or even get around. Simply walking along the coast into Piedmont is an extremely valid tactic for the French. The Italians can't hope to just box the French up, either on land or at sea, this isn't the Adriatic after all, and they can't afford to simply let the French have naval supremacy, though without significant British aid (which will take away from what they can commit to helping the Germans & Ottomans, and from protecting their own sea lanes) I significantly doubt the Regia Marina can defeat the French Mediterranean fleet. The Italians have taken Rome, but they might have to fall on their sword for it.
 
Falecius, I'm not so sure. While I'll admit the Italian-Austrian border is perfect for defensive warfare for the Savoyards, the same cannot be said of the Italian-French one. Yes, it's certainly rocky, but it's not as bad. The Italians won't be able to just sit back there, the mountain passes are more numerous and easier to use or even get around. Simply walking along the coast into Piedmont is an extremely valid tactic for the French. The Italians can't hope to just box the French up, either on land or at sea, this isn't the Adriatic after all, and they can't afford to simply let the French have naval supremacy, though without significant British aid (which will take away from what they can commit to helping the Germans & Ottomans, and from protecting their own sea lanes) I significantly doubt the Regia Marina can defeat the French Mediterranean fleet. The Italians have taken Rome, but they might have to fall on their sword for it.

The Western Alps are a quite unwelcoming terrain for both sides.
On the naval side, you are surely right. Regia Marina is likely to be no match for the French Navy. The only factor that plays in Italian favor is that France is streched very thin at sea, which might prevent a total curbstomp. Also, France cannot focus on Italy with all her strength, in which case Italy is going to be crushed of course.
Walking along the coast is going to be a rough going for the French. I've been in that area, and the terrain is quite rugged and easily defensible, if you have a competently led determined military. More to the north, the main passes should be five or six, but there are some other minor routes that coul allow encirclement.
An horrible place to fight, really.
 
I don't see the Spanish jumping into the war just because they gave refuge to the Pope, nor even out of revenge for the insult to the Papacy nor at the Pope's urging. Loyalty to Mother Church is one thing; sticking their head on the chopping block is another. If they join FAR as a belligerent, it is Britain they have to fear. The British can't land--well, they are landed, at Gibraltar, but if the Rock is hard to take, it is also, I gather, hard to fight their way out of too. Or the Portuguese can give them their ports and a front, but Portugal would suffer badly too. It isn't invasion they have to worry about, not for some years anyway. No, it's blockade. The RN can shut down Spanish trade and the French can't stop them; Spain, I gather, is rather dependent on imported goods and this will hurt Spain directly. And of course she can kiss her colonies bye-bye, and without them Spain is a third-rate power of no great importance. Among colonial powers, the same is already true, but at least she has that status currently--she won't within months of joining FAR, and then her only hope is that FAR prevails so sweepingly that even the British, who will never be crushed directly and will not lose control of the sea, will nevertheless agree to restore Spain's colonies, after years of their being under alien control that will doubtless compound the headaches of trying to hold them.

Meanwhile as a neutral, Spain can not only meet her own needs for imports but serve as a backdoor for French trade as well; too much of that would invite British restrictions, but then the onus of starting the war would be on the British, as would the opprobrium of cutting the Pope off from the larger world--the Catholic Irish majority might have something to say about that!:eek:

So, while I've been quite wrong prognosticating this timeline before, and may be yet again as I surely will be in future, my guess is, the Spanish regard sheltering the Pope as their fair contribution to the alliance that does have their sympathy. The Pope will be safe in Spain (assuming that related events don't trigger a radically anti-clerical rebellion, such as would wrack Mexico within a couple decades OTL, and Spain itself within a couple generations, so that's not unthinkable) and have a "bully pulpit" from which to denounce the perfidity of OBGI and the infidelity of any Catholics residing in these nations, including all of faithless Italy of course. But in principle, the Catholic Church is not a belligerent party! It's supposed to be the one true Church founded by the Prince of Peace for the redemption of all humanity; that this benign neutrality has been honored more in breach than observance in the past couple thousand years is a major reason a lot of people hate it and even fear it of course!;) But Spain can take the position that they are not in this war, keep their trade lanes open, retain her grip on the colonies (as best she can, the British won't be doing them favors, but they will maintain a correct protocol and not interfere nor allow others to invade) and still turn a brave face to the French and Austrians, proud to have done her part, keeping the Pope safe and the lines of communication open between the exiled See and faithful Catholics on both sides and in neutral nations, the world over. (The Russians might be less impressed, but they are far away).

So, while in the heat of the moment someone in Madrid might do something stupid, I'd certainly advise the Spanish government to stand pat--and start collecting favors the Pope now owes them. And demur, most politely and reverently, if he hotheadedly insists they throw in with the war, pointing out that then the Catholics of both OBGI and the neutrals would be cut off from his spiritual guidance.
 
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