Malê Rising
- Thread starter Jonathan Edelstein
- Start date
That’s an interesting issue, and one I haven’t thought very much about. My guess would be that any changes in Native American policy would be incremental. The Gullah have several advantages that Native Americans don’t: they’re American citizens, they’re influential in the politics of at least one state and a national political party, and most of them are on land that whites don’t want (one of the key reasons the Gullah culture was able to exist in the first place was that whites couldn’t live on the Sea Islands during the summer). Needless to say, those aren’t true for Native Americans, and with the settlement of the West proceeding much as OTL, the Indian wars and dispossession are, unfortunately, going to happen.
On the other hand, the legal rights of Native American tribes will get more scrutiny. Because the Gullah republics were given the status of Indian tribes as a dodge to legitimize their temporary separation from the Confederate States, the postwar litigation (by Georgia – for obvious reasons, they won’t have any problems with the South Carolina government) would focus on the legal ramifications of that status. And many of the extra-judicial factors that worked against the Native Americans would favor the Gullah – the federal government would support their position, and the courts would be reluctant to invalidate wartime measures, especially at the behest of a state that had lately been in rebellion.
This might establish several precedents that would benefit Native Americans. First, while reaffirming federal supremacy over “sovereign but dependent” nations, the courts would make it difficult if not impossible for states to interfere with them. Second, there would be more judicial emphasis on the “sovereign” part of “sovereign but dependent,” and the tribes might have more autonomy on reservation land, which would preclude many of the forced assimilation policies that took place in OTL. There might even be some sort of native-title arrangement which would make it more difficult for the government to move tribes around once reservation boundaries were settled.
Of course, those rules would have a lot of loopholes, especially during periods of active conflict between the tribes and the federal government. They wouldn’t prevent the Native Americans from being pushed onto reservations, and the tribes would still face dispossession, poverty and the resulting anomie. But they might be able to enforce limits on that dispossession, and they might also face a less oppressive cultural regime. That’s not much, but it might be something to build on.
The Gullah precedent may also affect how the United States deals with territorial acquisitions, assuming that there are any in TTL. If the United States picks up Hawaii, for instance, there might be an Akaka Bill-style settlement fairly early on, or even as part of the annexation package.
I expect that, as in OTL, there will be opinions up and down the line. As you say, there will be a nativist backlash in parts of the country – one already exists at this point in the timeline – and examples like South Carolina, or for that matter the increasing number of immigrants from the Balkans and Eastern Europe, might harden some opinions. But South Carolina, Utah and the Geechee enclaves in Georgia will also be examples the other way, and if the United States stays out of the Great War, that will also help.
You’re correct that the difference in TTL will be incremental, but there may be a difference.
Thanks! That painting will definitely make an appearance. Also, now that the new office is finally functional, I should be able to scan in the art book I brought back from Nigeria.
Anyway, if I may be permitted a digression: At this point, the ripple effects from Abacar’s revolution have spread nearly from one end of the Islamic world to the other, with very few dominoes left to fall. There’s been some discussion of Persia, where the Sunni-Shia divide has complicated the spread of reformist doctrines: there’s been some cross-fertilization from the Ottoman Empire and the Caucasus, but the Persians will probably find their own reformist synthesis during and after the Great War. The other places I can think of that aren’t yet in play are isolated by geography or terrain – Mindanao, Albania and Afghanistan. I have some plans for Afghanistan after 1910, and the other two will probably enter the story around the same time (although Albania might be earlier).
First question: Is there anywhere I’ve missed? And second: Are there any areas outside OTL’s Islamic world where Islam stands a chance of being at least a notable minority religion? There’s already a greater presence in the United States; I wonder if heterodox forms of Islam might make some inroads in the Pacific islands, as they’ve done in the last decade or so of OTL. Fiji is the obvious vector, but I can think of a couple of others, especially if Muslim colonial troops serve in the Pacific during the Great War. Pacific Islander folk Islam, especially if syncretized cargo-cult style, could raise some interesting possibilities.
Has the British Empire been exporting Indian clerks around the Empire as it did in OTL? If enough of them are Muslim rather than Hindu, you might get some in the West Indian possessions (I think OTL Guyana has the highest proportion of Indian-ethnic people in the region). Fiji and Uganda would be the other regions that OTL had large Indian populations due to this policy.
They've definitely been recruiting Indians for overseas work, both as clerks and as laborers. Some of the overseas Indians in OTL were Muslim, and I don't see this being any different in TTL, so there's still a Muslim presence in Trinidad and Guyana. There are also Muslims in Surinam, where the Dutch have imported both Indian and Javanese laborers, and in Grão Pará, where the rubber companies have brought in workers from their home countries' colonial empires.
Islam in these places, and in Fiji, is essentially an extension of Indian and Javanese Islam, although with the political upheaval in both South America and in the laborers' homelands, there will likely be some unexpected developments.
I've also been reminded off-list of the Chinese Muslims. There could be some really interesting knock-on effects in China, given the local Muslim community's degree of assimilation and adoption of Confucian culture. There will be a wave of Chinese nationalism in the early twentieth century, and they'll have a role to play.
Hnau
Banned
Jonathan Edelstein said:
I would think it very strange if Japan avoided entanglement with China over Korea in the 1890s. They had been building up to a war since the 1870s in OTL. I don't see any reason why the Donghak Rebellion wouldn't happen around 1894, and why the Chinese wouldn't send troops to put it down, and why the Japanese wouldn't send their own troops as a retaliatory measure.
If something like the Sino-Japanese War happens, the two combatants could get sucked into the Great War. Russia had the most to gain by keeping Japan from expanding into Korea and the Liaodong Peninsula. Britain and Germany, both powers close to Japan, might assist Japan to establish the best post-war settlement possible, which could draw in the Russians. However, historically Russia has mostly ignored its eastern frontiers whenever they were involved with a European war, so maybe the Russians would ignore most developments in that region. In any case, I think there's a strong case the Chinese and Japanese could be fighting each other during the 1890s.
I like the map Jonathan! I hope to see more soon. And the last installment was pretty cool. I think the Dutch are going to have a much more difficult time in the East Indies if they don't have the support of the Hadhramis.
wolf_brother
Banned
Man, the Ottomans & Dutch are going to make for such awkward allies* given how much the Dutch want Aceh.
* I'm assuming allies, considering the Netherlands is surrounded by the North Germans & Britain, and borders French-leaning Belgium. If the Dutch join the war at all, which the last update certainly implicates, it'll be to London & Berlin's tune.
So, in the colonial game I expect the Dutch to sit aside and only give half-hearted support to Britain's attempts to pry Siam away from France or make a drive for Saigon, while pulling plenty of her colonial troops home to help the war effort in Europe. Which might just pave the way for opportunities for *Indonesian patriots.
* I'm assuming allies, considering the Netherlands is surrounded by the North Germans & Britain, and borders French-leaning Belgium. If the Dutch join the war at all, which the last update certainly implicates, it'll be to London & Berlin's tune.
So, in the colonial game I expect the Dutch to sit aside and only give half-hearted support to Britain's attempts to pry Siam away from France or make a drive for Saigon, while pulling plenty of her colonial troops home to help the war effort in Europe. Which might just pave the way for opportunities for *Indonesian patriots.
That's what hapened IOTL, Britain took control of Burma over time and several wars, first reducing its territory and then annexing what was left a few decades later.
I know, but it never chopped Burma off til 1936. And the initial part of the modern Burmese state conquered by Britain was part of Bengal.
IOTL Burma was annexed gradually over three wars in the 19th century;
First Anglo-Burmese War (1824-1826):
British annexation of what is now Assam, Manipur and 2/3 of the Burmese coast, namely Arakan and Tanintharyi.
Second Anglo-Burmese War (1852):
British annexation of Lower Burma, leaving Burma almost totally surrounded and without a coast.
Third Anglo-Burmese War (1885):
The British annex the remaining rump Burmese Kingdom (Upper Burma).
Hmmm, I was under the impression that Arakan was conquered with Bengal, but, right, I just remember that it was indeed independent.
I don't see why you're posting all this, though. I was saying that Burma even as it was slowly conquered was considered part of the Company, and then the Raj. I'm not saying that the Kingdom was not independent, but that the British bits would have said India on them.
For historical accuracy and in case it might be helpful to Jonathan.
Also initially Burma was'nt part of the Raj, Lower Burma was a seperate colony for ten years from it's conquest in 1852 until its inclusion into the British Raj in 1862 and even after that a few small tributary/princely states taken from Burma actually remained seperate from the Raj until the inclusion of Upper Burma in the late 1880's.
And, for my own personal search records, 10,000th post.
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Japan will certainly make a play for Korea - at this point, it's had its fingers in Korean politics for a long time, and the Great War is a perfect opportunity to advance its cause while the great powers are distracted. The Japanese threat, and China's powerlessness to protect against that threat (which will become evident very soon after the Japanese troops land), is part of the reason the Korean court will shift toward an alliance with Russia.
And something like the Donghak Rebellion might very well be the catalyst, because the Korean peasants will also know that the major powers are distracted.
The thing is that the Great War will pre-empt many political events that might otherwise happen during the 1890s. In OTL, that decade was a busy one in East Asia - the French seizure of Laos, the expansion of the Dutch hold over the outer Indies, the Sino-Japanese War, the British consolidation of Malaya and ultimately the Filipino revolution - but the war and the postwar settlement might supersede some of these events and change the character of others. In 1892, TTL's East Asia isn't that different from OTL; in 1900, it will be very different.
Yes, the Hadhramis were a useful minority in OTL even if the Dutch didn't trust them - they could be placed in positions of religious authority to counteract local nationalism, and could also be used as commercial middlemen. With the Hadhramis as allies of the Indonesian nationalists, the Dutch administration will be stretched much more thinly.
Yeah, the Dutch will hate that part of it, assuming that they come in on the British-German side (and I agree that this would be the natural side for them to join if they don't succeed in staying neutral - the only thing that might prevent that is a German invasion of the Low Countries). The question is whether the British and Germans would want Dutch help badly enough to lean on the Ottomans to make concessions; my guess is probably not, because if the Dutch join in, it's because they don't have much choice in the matter anyway.
Even if the Dutch stay neutral, they'll still have to keep their forces concentrated in Europe to deter the French and Germans from using their territory as an invasion route, which would also limit their ability to respond to any Indonesian protest or uprising.
This was actually a research failure on my part. TTL's British policy in India and Burma didn't change significantly until the late 1860s, so if Lower Burma was annexed to the Raj in 1862 in OTL, this would also happen in TTL. It certainly makes administrative sense. So just assume that the solid line separating Lower Burma and the Indian Empire is actually a dotted line.
The obvious difference at this point is that there was no Third Burmese War, because France propped Upper Burma up as a buffer between the Raj and Siam. The greater British presence in Africa has been balanced somewhat by a greater French presence in Southeast Asia, although France might have some trouble reinforcing its Asian colonies in the teeth of the Royal Navy.
I was working from an 1860 map, but I can't vouch for its accuracy. If anyone has more definite borders, PM me and I'll change the map accordingly.
Hnau
Banned
So it looks like the Brazilians, reinforced by the French, already have established positions very close to Belem. It seems like the city could be very easily taken, which could very likely cut off the British and Germans in the interior from any support. The best idea would be to do some kind of deal with Venezuela (by approving of their annexation of some Amazonian territory) and then establish supply lines from British Guiana and Venezuela. With that precedent, perhaps the Grao-Paraense will approve of even more cessions of its territory to the Bolivians in order to win an ally in the conflict. Brazil could just as likely do the same, though, by promising territory to the Bolivians and thus assuring an alliance with them. Could Paraguay jump in and complicate matters?
The rebels might not be amenable to the Brazilians or the Grao-Paraense. I see them as very similar to the Chinese communists during the Second Sino-Japanese War, who have isolated and distant bases of power and very few allies. Could they align with the central government (soon to be in exile in Manaus, probably) and then turn on them when victory is within their grasp? Could we see an 1890s analogue to the Long March? Such developments would be very exciting.
I'm interested in what happens in Acre. This area had a lot of interesting developments in the 1890s. In OTL it technically belonged to Bolivia until 1903 yet attracted tens of thousands of Brazilian migrants because of the rubber boom, mainly from the northeastern states. From 1899 to 1903 there were declared three different independent republics in the region. The first two were put down but the third one invited in the Brazilian military which made it an official Brazilian territory.
Here it looks like Acre has been divided up between Bolivia and Peru which could have plausibly happened. The question is if the rubber draws migrants from afar as it did in OTL. The independence of Grao-Para could be a huge obstacle to Brazilian migrants, instead another group could quickly colonize the area, though I doubt it would be Bolivians seeing as they didn't effectively utilize the territory in OTL. What kind of things are going on here in OTL, Jonathan?
While we are on the topic of South America, did anything happen like the War of the Pacific, between Bolivia, Chile and Peru, and was it different?
The rebels might not be amenable to the Brazilians or the Grao-Paraense. I see them as very similar to the Chinese communists during the Second Sino-Japanese War, who have isolated and distant bases of power and very few allies. Could they align with the central government (soon to be in exile in Manaus, probably) and then turn on them when victory is within their grasp? Could we see an 1890s analogue to the Long March? Such developments would be very exciting.
I'm interested in what happens in Acre. This area had a lot of interesting developments in the 1890s. In OTL it technically belonged to Bolivia until 1903 yet attracted tens of thousands of Brazilian migrants because of the rubber boom, mainly from the northeastern states. From 1899 to 1903 there were declared three different independent republics in the region. The first two were put down but the third one invited in the Brazilian military which made it an official Brazilian territory.
Here it looks like Acre has been divided up between Bolivia and Peru which could have plausibly happened. The question is if the rubber draws migrants from afar as it did in OTL. The independence of Grao-Para could be a huge obstacle to Brazilian migrants, instead another group could quickly colonize the area, though I doubt it would be Bolivians seeing as they didn't effectively utilize the territory in OTL. What kind of things are going on here in OTL, Jonathan?
While we are on the topic of South America, did anything happen like the War of the Pacific, between Bolivia, Chile and Peru, and was it different?
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Belém is a bit like Richmond or Enugu - it isn't that far from the border, and it makes a tempting military target. When the Brazilans decided to intervene in the Grão Pará civil war, they drove straight for the capital, hoping to end the war in a single stroke. The Grão-Paráense army repelled the first attack but realized they'd get steamrollered in the second one, so they called for help.
Right now, the British and German troops are guarding Belém (their zone of occupation includes the city itself) and standing in the way of the Brazilian advance. They're able to resupply by sea - the RN and North German navy are more than capable of thwarting any Brazilian attempt to blockade the Amazon delta - but their position is still precarious, because they can't expect many reinforcements from home. The Brazilians are still hesitant about taking on the Anglo-German force, so the front is currently static while they consolidate their hold on the border region, but their hesitation is diminishing by the day.
The Anglo-German troops guarding Manaus are in just as bad a position - it can use the rubber companies' private guards as auxiliaries, but if the rebels or the Brazilians take the lower Amazon, they'll be cut off. So a deal with Venezuela may indeed be in the offing.
As can be seen, there are several countries who want a piece of Grão Pará. Brazil would like to get it all back, but if things don't go its way, then it might go for an alliance with Bolivia or even invite the Andean republics to the table. Carving up the Amazon and ending up with a piece of it would be better than ending up with none.
And the rebels... well, you'll see.
There are still immigrants in Acre in TTL - there's entirely too much wealth there not to draw immigrants. Many of these are from the same countries that sponsor the rubber plantations in Grão Pará; others are imported rubber workers or displaced Grão-Paráense subsistence farmers looking for a better deal. They're too diverse to organize a separatist movement (and no one would want to be annexed by Grão Pará anyway), so Bolivia and Peru have been able to hang onto the region so far, but their fractiousness also means that Acre might be dragged into the wider conflict.
There were wars, but none that involved all three countries at once. Bolivia did rather better against Chile than in OTL (it got help from the Paraguayans in exchange for settling some border disputes in Paraguay's favor), and still has a seacoast. It didn't do as well against Peru, though, hence the location of the Acre border. Right now, it's interested in getting as much of the rubber-rich Amazon as it can.
The South American theater of the Great War will work in unpredictable ways sometimes - there will be several countries that aren't part of any of the big alliances but which will jump in for their own reasons. And it might not be limited to the Amazon.