Malê Rising

Thanks, y'all. I really enjoy writing the narrative posts, and like Daztur and Iori have said, they make me think about how all the macro-level changes are affecting people on the ground. They also give me a chance to play with styles (speaking of which, is it clear that the point of view alternates between Souleymane and Chiara?).

On another note having read the latest post I now feel regret having spent time only wandering around Tuileries and Luxembourg gardens but not Chaumont!

The Buttes Chaumont are in the 19th arrondissement, a bit off the tourist path. The park looks amazing, though, and one day when I'm in Paris for more than 11 hours at a time, I'll make sure to go.

Belleville is in the adjacent 20th arrondissement; it's been a working-class neighborhood with a large immigrant population since the mid-19th century, and it's been leftist for about the same amount of time. I figure it would be a natural place for the early African communities to get started.

The vine, Landolphia, also known some places as eta, is currently being cultivated in west africa, but for its fruit and secondarily for its leaves, which are used as dry season goat fodder.

Interesting - this would suggest that cultivating it for rubber isn't commercially viable as compared to the trees. So we're probably looking at a sequence of events similar to what occurred in OTL, where the colonialists start by harvesting wild rubber, then try to cultivate the vines, and then finally give up and establish rubber-tree plantations.

The wild-rubber phase was the most brutal in OTL - the rubber gatherers needed to be distributed over a wide area rather than working in gangs, so the colonial powers used hostage-taking and terror tactics to make sure they didn't run away. The perverse incentives will be the same here, so I'd assume the practices will also be.

Tidiani's reforms are fascinating - the ways in which he does and does not emulate the Abcarists are going to have huge implications for the fate of the Toucouleur Empire. Are they aligned with any European power? Do they have any interest in being so aligned?

At the moment, they don't - France is an enemy, and the British territories are too far away for an alliance to do them much good. That will change during the run-up to the Great War, though, as Britain and France (and to a lesser extent, the Ottomans) push inland and compete for the allegiance of the border states. The Toucouleur, and their neighbors, will have a chance to either make up to France or seek protection from Britain, and which countries go which way will have a good deal to do with the course of the war.

The Ottoman sphere next, then Brazil/Grão Pará, then the Oyo-Company War... and then on to the 1880s.
 
Thanks, y'all. I really enjoy writing the narrative posts, and like Daztur and Iori have said, they make me think about how all the macro-level changes are affecting people on the ground. They also give me a chance to play with styles (speaking of which, is it clear that the point of view alternates between Souleymane and Chiara?).

That was indeed pretty clear - I didn't consciously notice it the first time around, but it made a difference and made the story more interesting.

Cheers,
Ganesha
 
Thanks, y'all. I really enjoy writing the narrative posts, and like Daztur and Iori have said, they make me think about how all the macro-level changes are affecting people on the ground. They also give me a chance to play with styles (speaking of which, is it clear that the point of view alternates between Souleymane and Chiara?).



The Buttes Chaumont are in the 19th arrondissement, a bit off the tourist path. The park looks amazing, though, and one day when I'm in Paris for more than 11 hours at a time, I'll make sure to go.

Belleville is in the adjacent 20th arrondissement; it's been a working-class neighborhood with a large immigrant population since the mid-19th century, and it's been leftist for about the same amount of time. I figure it would be a natural place for the early African communities to get started.



Interesting - this would suggest that cultivating it for rubber isn't commercially viable as compared to the trees. So we're probably looking at a sequence of events similar to what occurred in OTL, where the colonialists start by harvesting wild rubber, then try to cultivate the vines, and then finally give up and establish rubber-tree plantations.

The wild-rubber phase was the most brutal in OTL - the rubber gatherers needed to be distributed over a wide area rather than working in gangs, so the colonial powers used hostage-taking and terror tactics to make sure they didn't run away. The perverse incentives will be the same here, so I'd assume the practices will also be.



At the moment, they don't - France is an enemy, and the British territories are too far away for an alliance to do them much good. That will change during the run-up to the Great War, though, as Britain and France (and to a lesser extent, the Ottomans) push inland and compete for the allegiance of the border states. The Toucouleur, and their neighbors, will have a chance to either make up to France or seek protection from Britain, and which countries go which way will have a good deal to do with the course of the war.

The Ottoman sphere next, then Brazil/Grão Pará, then the Oyo-Company War... and then on to the 1880s.

This is why it is good to live in London, having Paris just a 2 hour train ride away. I've spent a bit of time since I moved to Europe around that area as friends lived there and it still feels pretty alternative/left wing/immigrant. Certainly, the best bars seem to be there as well!
 
This is why it is good to live in London, having Paris just a 2 hour train ride away. I've spent a bit of time since I moved to Europe around that area as friends lived there and it still feels pretty alternative/left wing/immigrant. Certainly, the best bars seem to be there as well!

Cool. Since you live in London, where do you think working-class African immigrants would be likely to live during the early twentieth century? How about upper-middle-class African immigrants - say, a Malê merchant or industrialist who has made good and wants to establish a headquarters in the imperial capital?
 
Cool. Since you live in London, where do you think working-class African immigrants would be likely to live during the early twentieth century? How about upper-middle-class African immigrants - say, a Malê merchant or industrialist who has made good and wants to establish a headquarters in the imperial capital?

Good question. Initial thoughts:

It will depend on whether or not the immigrants are temporary or permanent. If the former, then perhaps they will have different patterns than the latter. Obviously, many migrants are not really sure what they are till it happens, but

Lets assume that we have two classes, those who are either not intended to be permanent or are not sure, and those that are.

Of those that are not sure/don't want to be permanent, there would be two classes. The rich merchant/visitor/diplomat/etc would probably go out to West London, anywhere from Knightsbridge through to the new suburbs of Chelsea and Fulham. The others I would imagine would cluster around the riverside transport and industrial suburbs, most likely out east, say Rotherhithe, Isle of Dogs etc or the like.

Given the talk of the RN connection, perhaps further out, Chatham way? Chatham being one of the industrial era key ports and manufactories of the RN

Long term immigrants are less clear. They could perhaps simply follow the Huguenot / Jewish model, as that is probably the best one for long term "alien" settlement prior to the Modern Era. So, starting off East in the industrial or slum suburbs, then gradually migrating outwards when wealth/integration occurs. The problem of course being that African migration will be in smaller numbers and at the same time as Jewish migration, so probably cannot easily be accommodated.

I'll have a think about it tonight
 
So, upon further consideration, I would think the West African sailor community would develop around Wapping, where most other sailors seemed to congregate. There were large communities of various groups like the Chinese or Indians in the 19th century, and it seems, some Africans too.

From there, the community would probably head to the wider East End to become part of the working classes in various factories.
 
Thanks for the information. The assumption I'm working from is that most of the immigrants will consider themselves temporary at first: sailors on leave, students, merchants looking to expand their business, and workers who figure that a few years in a factory job will enable them to save enough to live well at home. Many of them will, in fact, return to Africa, but others will stay.

So there may be three, or even four, early settlements. The sailors will live in Wapping, while the job-seekers (and eventually the sailors who end up marrying locally and staying) will settle in the working-class East End neighborhoods. The businessmen and middle-class students will live in more comfortable London neighborhoods, probably congregating in one or two where the landlords will rent to them. But I also like the idea of a small community in Chatham. The industrialists and skilled tradesmen who work in naval production, and who have developed relationships with particular officers or with sister companies in Britain, could have all kinds of reasons to go there, and a settlement outside London opens up a new set of possibilities.

I'd expect that the largest settlements will be Wapping and the East End, and in 1900, it will be an East End neighborhood that is predominantly associated with Africans. On the other hand, if the Malê in Britain are associated with the navy in popular perception, then the Chatham community may gain more visibility than its numbers would otherwise suggest.

In any event, there's a reason I'm thinking about all this - when we get to the turn of the century, it should become clear.
 
Nearly 120,000 words, Jonathan. I'm impressed.

Can't wait for the next update.

Hope this wins a Turtledove.

At least South Carolina is known for something other than being the conservative firewall state in the GOP primaries.

Since sports teams in South Carolina are likely to be integrated, this will create some...interesting...effects in the South ITTL.
 
Thanks for the information. The assumption I'm working from is that most of the immigrants will consider themselves temporary at first: sailors on leave, students, merchants looking to expand their business, and workers who figure that a few years in a factory job will enable them to save enough to live well at home. Many of them will, in fact, return to Africa, but others will stay.

So there may be three, or even four, early settlements. The sailors will live in Wapping, while the job-seekers (and eventually the sailors who end up marrying locally and staying) will settle in the working-class East End neighborhoods. The businessmen and middle-class students will live in more comfortable London neighborhoods, probably congregating in one or two where the landlords will rent to them. But I also like the idea of a small community in Chatham. The industrialists and skilled tradesmen who work in naval production, and who have developed relationships with particular officers or with sister companies in Britain, could have all kinds of reasons to go there, and a settlement outside London opens up a new set of possibilities.

I'd expect that the largest settlements will be Wapping and the East End, and in 1900, it will be an East End neighborhood that is predominantly associated with Africans. On the other hand, if the Malê in Britain are associated with the navy in popular perception, then the Chatham community may gain more visibility than its numbers would otherwise suggest.

In any event, there's a reason I'm thinking about all this - when we get to the turn of the century, it should become clear.

Would Africans in Britain live anywhere outside of London? Maybe lower-class industrial-worker immigrants might move to Manchester or Glasgow to work there.

What about Senegalese in France? Anywhere outside of Paris? Elsewhere in Europe? You're putting very intelligent and interesting thought into this, Jonathan, keep it up!

Hope this wins a Turtledove.

I think it's more a question of when, then a matter of hope. The only hope I have is that I hope I get to be the one to nominate it. :p

Cheers,
Ganesha
 
Nearly 120,000 words, Jonathan. I'm impressed.

Yeesh, is it that many? In that case, Malê Rising is officially the longest thing I've ever written.

Right now I'm estimating that the turn of the century will be the halfway point - the pace will pick up in the twentieth century as scattered threads come together - so the whole thing may end up close to 300,000. I say again, yeesh.

At least South Carolina is known for something other than being the conservative firewall state in the GOP primaries.

Since sports teams in South Carolina are likely to be integrated, this will create some...interesting...effects in the South ITTL.

SC will be a Republican state for a long time, but conservative is another story.

I suspect that if the majors are lily-white as in OTL, they simply won't sponsor teams in SC, and that the South Carolinians will either have their own league or play in this timeline's *Negro Leagues. Then again, maybe the majors won't be lily-white, or at least not for as long. Or maybe there won't be majors.

We'll visit the US again in the early 1890s, and sports, among other things, will play a part.

Would Africans in Britain live anywhere outside of London? Maybe lower-class industrial-worker immigrants might move to Manchester or Glasgow to work there.

What about Senegalese in France? Anywhere outside of Paris? Elsewhere in Europe?

There will be Africans in the other British industrial cities eventually, although it might take some time. The Senegalese will spread out much sooner - there will be communities in all the French port cities and in the cantonment towns, with immigrants coming to work for the merchant houses or settling where they were mustered out of the army.

Elsewhere in Europe - there will be a few here and there, as businessmen, diplomats and soldiers of fortune. Beyond that, a great deal will depend on which European countries have colonies and how they treat the colonial inhabitants (in OTL, for instance, inhabitants of the British and French colonies could travel to the metropole fairly easily, while Congolese weren't allowed to visit Belgium until 1958). You might find some in surprising places.
 
Aram Sakalian, The Young Ottomans from Tanzimat to Democracy (Stamboul: Abdülhamid University Press, 2011)

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... In 1875, the newly strengthened reformist government of Midhat Pasha and Ibrahim Şinasi undertook two projects. One would go a long way toward stabilizing the empire; the other would, in the short term, lead to instability and war.

That March, they unveiled a radical overhaul to the Ottoman system of taxation and government finance. The patchwork of local taxes and exemptions was replaced by a single tax which applied across the board: an expanded temettu, or graduated income tax, that applied to both wages and corporate profits. For companies, the tax rate was 5 percent; for individuals, regardless of religion, it varied from 10 percent for the lowest income category to 50 percent for the highest. Those still outside the money economy - the remaining subsistence farmers and herders - were permitted to pay an in-kind agricultural tithe, but it was anticipated that everyone would pay a monetary tax within twenty years. [1]

Tax collection and administration were taken entirely out of local hands, and given to a newly-created Central Tax Agency under the control of the Imperial Ottoman Bank. The bank itself received expanded powers to set monetary policy, manage the public debt and act as treasurer of the empire. The existing bank administration was replaced by a nine-member board of governors, appointed by the Sultan with the consent of the lower house for staggered twelve-year terms.

The fiscal reforms occurred just in time. The Ottoman Empire had run up an enormous public debt in the wake of the Crimean War, and although the reformist government had made heavy cuts in the court budget since taking power, the Aceh conflict had largely offset these economies, and the nation was only months away from a default. The prospect of efficient tax collection and professional fiscal management, however, persuaded the creditors to stay their hand and allowed Şinasi to negotiate a bridge loan and a partial writedown of interest payments. [2]

The reformists' attempt at a political settlement in the Balkans proved less successful. In May, the Porte announced the de jure independence of Serbia and Romania in exchange for their assumption of a prorated share of the Ottoman debt. At the same time, the limited autonomy that had been granted to the Bulgarian-majority sanjaks in 1872 was expanded to a regional government, subordinate to the Ottoman state in fiscal and military affairs but with its own legislature and broad internal self-rule. In the areas around Skopje and Monastir, where the Ottomans could not devolve power without endangering their corridor to Albania and Bosnia, the central government offered subsidies to Bulgarians willing to move into the autonomous region, while also subsidizing Turkish immigration from Anatolia.

But rather than calming Balkan nationalist tensions as hoped, these measures only inflamed them. Bulgaria did experience a ratcheting-down of confrontation; although the nationalists were unhappy at the size of their autonomous province, most of them were willing to accept it, and the hard-liners were reduced to a fringe. Serbia, however, not content with its formal independence, began encouraging irredentist movements among the Bosnian Serbs, which turned Bosnia's simmering peasant rebellion into a bewildering multi-sided affair. And the Greeks of Yanya and southern Monastir vilayets agitated for the same concessions that the Bulgarians had received - concessions that the Ottoman government was unwilling to grant, because an autonomous Greek region would inevitably seek union with Greece.

By early 1876, therefore, both Bosnia and Yanya were in a state of low-grade civil war, with atrocities on all sides and many clan leaders using the fighting as a convenient excuse to pursue old feuds. When the Ottoman army moved in to crush the rebellions, it was like oil on flames. Lurid tales of massacres and other atrocities began circulating in European capitals; in Stamboul, these stories involved killings of Muslim families by Christian rebels, while in St. Petersburg and the cities of western Europe, they typically featured soldiers murdering and torturing innocent Christians. Possibly a tenth of the stories were true, but in the politically charged atmosphere, passions ran high.

The tinder was dry, and the spark was ignited on May 30, 1876, when a battalion of Ottoman soldiers pursued a fleeing group of Bosnian Serb rebels across the border. A few miles into Serbia, it encountered a Serbian army patrol which ordered it to give over its pursuit and return to Ottoman territory. The Ottoman commander refused, and in a brief engagement, most of the Serbian detachment was killed or taken prisoner. The following day, Serbia declared war on the Ottoman Empire and appealed for Russian aid.

In Russia, which had openly sided with the Balkan rebellions, sentiment ran heavily in favor of the Serbs, and both the royal court and the public favored war. On June 4, St. Petersburg issued an ultimatum demanding that the Ottomans withdraw not only from Serbia but from Bosnia and the Greek sanjaks, and that a commission headed by the Tsar administer the provinces until their disposition could be decided. Midhat Pasha refused, and on June 7, Russia - which had already begun mobilizing its troops - declared war. The following week, Greece followed suit, and two Greek armies crossed the border, driving for Ioannina and Larissa. The War of the Balkan Alliance had begun...

*******

Hilaire Lind, The War of the Balkan Alliance (Paris: Flammarion, 1960)

... The first battles of the War of the Balkan Alliance actually took place in the Caucasus, where 100,000 Russian troops under Melikian and Danilov invaded eastern Anatolia on a broad front. [3] On June 12, elements of the Caucasian Army captured Batum; the following day, Bayazid fell, and by the end of the week, the main body of the Russian force had laid siege to Kars. The Ottoman force, slower to mobilize, gave way before the invaders as the high command struggled to get reinforcements to the front.

The Balkan campaign was delayed several days due to the need to negotiate transit rights with the Romanian government. Romania was officially neutral; with the grant of de jure independence the previous year, it already had everything it wanted from the Ottomans, and the court of Prince Michael had no desire to exchange Ottoman domination for Russian. Nevertheless, the newly-independent principality knew how dangerous it was to anger the Bear, so after brief consultation, it agreed to allow Russian troops to transit its territory in return for a small fee and a guarantee of its security. By June 14 - the same day that Greek troops crossed into Yanya and Monastir vilayets - the first Russian elements had crossed Romania and opened two fronts. One corps of what was ominously named the Danube Army reinforced the Serbian forces in Bosnia, while the main body of the army crossed at Rusçuk and Silistre, making for Edirne and for the Black Sea coast.

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The first weeks of the war went badly for the Ottomans, who were outnumbered and had difficulty getting troops to the front. There were a few bright spots: the Bulgarians largely stayed out of the fight – either out of desire to honor their commitments or, more cynically, waiting to see who won – and the large Ottoman force already in place to quell the Yanya rebellion was initially able to stop the Greek advance. On July 3, however, the Army of Livadia under Dimitrakis – who would repeatedly prove himself the best of the Greek generals in that war – was able to turn the flank of the Ottoman corps, and the Ottomans were forced to abandon Ioannina. The city fell on July 11, with a jubilant ethnic Greek population welcoming Dimitrakis’ army in, and by the fifteenth, Larissa was under siege. On the same date, rebellion erupted in Crete, overwhelming several of the local garrisons and quickly seizing control of the countryside.

In the meantime, the Russian drive south advanced rapidly. The Ottoman forces opposing them along the northern frontier were unable to coordinate in time, and the Russians defeated them in detail or drove them back. At the beginning of August, the Danube Army’s Black Sea column had reached the outskirts of Varna and the main force was approaching Edirne, with the Tsar’s generals openly predicting that Stamboul would be under siege by fall. And while the Ottomans’ Anatolian Army was able to lift the siege of Kars, the southern Russian column under Melikian was moving steadily westward and threatened to cut the Ottomans off.

But as August drew on, the Ottoman resistance stiffened. In Bosnia, the peasant leader Osmanović, who had until lately been in rebellion against the landlords and the governors who supported them, joined forces with the Ottoman army, and the Serbo-Russian advance was halted outside Sarajevo. And while the Russians had been advancing through Tuna, the Ottoman Army of Stamboul, under the personal command of Hussein Avni Pasha, was feverishly digging entrenchments outside Varna and Edirne. The Russian forces approaching those cities found themselves in the same meat-grinder of trench warfare that had characterized the second phase of the Franco-Prussian War, with the Ottomans using their purchased Gatling guns and quick-firing Krupp artillery to deadly advantage. During the two-month Battle of Edirne, which the Ottomans fought entirely on the defensive, Russia suffered more than 100,000 casualties, and even the seasoned British and French military observers were appalled at what they saw of the horrors of industrial war.

Three events in September and October contributed to the turning of the tide. Late in August, the Greek army gambled on an offensive northward through Monastir, hoping to relieve the Russians at Edirne and cut Bosnia and Albania off from the rest of the Ottoman empire. Their advance was initially successful, with Monastir city falling on September 2 and Salonika being invested a week later. On September 13, however, an Ottoman relief force arrived at Salonika and, due to a Greek tactical blunder, was able to divide and surround the besieging forces. The Greeks were forced to surrender on September 20, and Dimitrakis, whose separate column was advancing on Skopje, had to retreat in order to avoid being cut off and to reinforce Larissa against an Ottoman counteroffensive.

In the meantime, the Ottoman armies in eastern Anatolia had been reinforced, and on October 1, troops brought up from the Levant encountered and defeated Melikian’s advancing column. The Ottoman side scored an even greater triumph on October 3 when it got around Danilov’s flank north of Kars, cutting off his retreat and encircling his entire army. On October 9, after six days of deadly artillery fire, Danilov surrendered, leaving virtually no Russian effectives in the Caucasian theater.

The third and final turning point occurred outside the war zone, in a village near Odobesti, Romania. On October 11, a Russian foraging party entered the village to obtain food, in violation of the Tsar’s agreement with Prince Michael. According to the Russian commander, a Romanian peasant fired on the party; according to the Romanian survivors, the Russians shot first after the villagers refused to give up their grain stores. But while the beginning of the incident is disputed, the end is not: of the 400-odd villagers who rose that morning, less than thirty survived to see the sun go down.

If the Tsar had apologized and made reparations, as several prominent courtiers urged him to do, the affair might have ended there, because the Romanian government was still wary of angering Russia. But the hard-line faction in the Russian court, which considered Romania’s neutrality little short of treason, prevailed. The official response to Romania’s diplomatic protest, delivered on October 14, not only blamed the villagers but demanded that, in the future, Romania provision all Russian troops on its soil. Prince Michael was backed into a corner, and on October 16, the Tsar’s high-handedness accomplished the impossible: it brought Romania into the war on the Ottoman side.

The effect on the Russian war effort was both devastating and immediate. Not only did the Romanian army seize and intern twenty thousand Russian troops who were transiting its territory, but the supply line to Edirne and Varna had been cut. The troops at the front were already suffering privation and sickness, and the loss of the Romanian supply line brought them dangerously low on ammunition. An abortive effort was made to resupply the army by sea through Küstence, which Russia had seized during the early days of the war, but the Ottoman navy prevented the majority of the supplies from getting through. By October 25, the Edirne front was crumbling, and Hussein Avni Pasha’s army was driving the Russians back toward the frontier.

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Thus far, the Ottomans had fought a defensive war, but with the collapse of Russian resistance, Midhat Pasha decided to go on the attack. He had been laying the groundwork for weeks, sending ambassadors to treat with the Azeris, Chechens and Dagestanis, and in early November, rebellion erupted in all the Muslim areas of the Caucasus as the regular Ottoman army crossed the border. Shortly afterward, the Ottomans made an even more daring gamble, with a mixed force of Tatar exiles and regulars, under heavy naval escort, landed near Yalta.

Neither attack succeeded as well as the Ottomans had hoped. Their advancing Caucasian army was met with widespread guerrilla resistance from the Armenian and Georgian populations and was unable to reduce all the fortified garrisons in Russian-held cities; as winter deepened, the offensive stalled, and in some places even faltered. The Tatar force quickly occupied the southern parts of the Crimea where Muslims predominated, but it failed to take Sevastopol or Simferopol, and with the Russian navy still active in the Black Sea, it could only be resupplied intermittently.

In January 1877, while fighting continued north of Varna, Russia announced plans for a spring offensive to drive the Ottomans off its soil, punish the Romanians and resume the invasion of Anatolia. But the announcement was met by widespread rebellion among the peasants, who had heard horror stories of conditions at the front and were unwilling to be conscripted in what they saw as a losing war. As the rebellions threatened to spiral out of control, the remaining Russian armies were fully committed at home, and on February 15, the Tsar sued for a cease-fire. Serbia, which had by now been driven entirely out of Bosnia and which saw little prospect of victory without Russian aid, followed suit a day later.

This left Greece as the Ottomans’ only remaining enemy, and Hussein Avni Pasha was able to turn his full attention to the southern Balkan front. On February 20, he retook Larissa, and on the twenty-fourth, with Dimitrakis still holding out in Ioannina but all other Greek troops cleared from Ottoman soil, he crossed the border. The government at Athens, in a panic, sued for peace and appealed to the European powers to prevent a massacre.

At that point, an unlikely coalition of Britain, France and the North German Confederation stepped in to end the war. Britain, while friendly to the Ottoman Empire, was also Greece’s diplomatic patron, and given the lurid stories that had circulated through European capitals during the prewar period, the powers believed that a massacre was a genuine possibility. Under heavy European pressure, Midhat Pasha agreed to a cease-fire in place on March 1, and also agreed that an international force, rather than the Ottoman army, would disarm and intern the rebels who still held most of Crete...

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… The peace conference, which convened at Rome in August 1877, proved nearly as messy as the war. It was clear that the Ottomans had won, but the European powers’ opposition to continued Turkish rule over restive Balkan Christian populations was equally clear, and their position was given weight by the fact that Ioannina and Crete remained out of Ottoman hands. The result was that, despite their military victory, the Ottoman Empire actually lost Balkan territory in the peace settlement.

The government of Greece initially requested that the Greek-majority sanjaks be annexed to it outright. It was quickly told that it was in no position to make demands, but nor were these territories returned to the Ottomans. Instead, the European powers used the leverage provided by Dimitrakis’ boots on the ground to create the Duchies of Crete and Thessaly. Each duchy would be nominally independent and would have its own legislature; however, each would also be subject to one Greek and one Ottoman commissioner, the consent of both would be required to pass any legislation, and the Ottoman representative would have power to guarantee the rights of the Muslim minority. In addition, at the Porte’s insistence, the port of Salonika was made a free city rather than being incorporated into Thessaly, in the anticipation that its Jewish majority, which was pro-Turkish, would enable the Ottomans to maintain control over sea traffic into the region.

Serbia and Russia fared worse. The Serbs got off with an indemnity somewhat lighter than the Greeks paid, but had to renounce all their claims to Bosnia. Russia, in addition to being assessed a heavy fine, lost the Caucasus and the southern Crimea. Azerbaijan, Dagestan and the Tatar-held portions of the Crimea were made into khanates under Ottoman vassalage. Georgia and Armenia, which the Europeans were unwilling to see fall under Ottoman rule, became kingdoms; at French insistence, the Tsar was allowed to be crowned king of both, but each was to have its own government and no Russian troops could be stationed there…

… The final peace treaty was signed on October 12, 1877. In Stamboul, it was greeted with mixed emotions. The restitution of the Crimean khanate and the gains in the Caucasus were highly popular and the financial indemnity would help defray the cost of the war and provide for the wounded soldiers, but the loss of the Greek territories, even under mutual supervision, cast a shadow on the victory. There was a growing sense that the empire had not done as well at peace as it had at war.

In Greece, the feeling was precisely the opposite. The performance of its generals, other than Dimitrakis, was the cause of much alarm, and the war indemnity was a heavy burden, but the government took credit for liberating Thessaly and Crete, and managed to convince much of the public that the indemnity was a fair price to pay for delivering their coethnics from the yoke. The military defeat was transformed, in official propaganda, into a near-victory.

For Russia, of course, the war was an unmitigated disaster: the military defeat, the loss of territory, the “betrayal” by Romania and the peasants’ rebellion all combined to feed a sense of siege. The government immediately embarked on a course of military reforms, and the court was dominated even more by reactionary pan-Slavism and pan-Orthodoxy, but among the disgruntled veterans, revolutionary currents of all kinds were taking shape…

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Aram Sakalian, The Young Ottomans from Tanzimat to Democracy (Stamboul: Abdülhamid University Press, 2011
)

... Midhat Pasha and Hussein Avni Pasha had put their rivalry on hold for the duration of the crisis, but once the peace was made, their political conflict revived full force. This time, it was the general rather than the vizier who had the advantage. Both claimed credit for the victory over the Russians, but in the wake of the Rome Treaty, Hussein Avni Pasha's military glory was still bright while Midhat Pasha's diplomatic glory was tarnished.

Exactly how tarnished became clear after the election of 1878, the Ottoman Empire's third. The Constitutionalist Party of Midhat Pasha and Sinasi lost ground in the cities to the secularists, Islamic socialists and supporters of universal suffrage, and in the countryside to the conservatives. When the dust cleared, the Constitutionalists were still the largest single bloc, but they had lost their majority in the lower house, and had also lost control of enough provincial councils to cost them control of the senate. Their only remaining base of power was the central bank and the Tax Authority, on which the governors they had nominated would retain a majority for at least the next eight years.

Hussein Avni Pasha wasted no time: just days after the election results were announced, he went to the Sultan and persuaded him that Midhat Pasha was attempting to save his majority by allying with the radicals. Hours later, Hussein Avni Pasha was named vizier in Midhat Pasha's place. It was, in many ways, an old-fashioned Ottoman palace coup.

But it was also a coup that showed how much things had changed. Although the conservatives were back in power, there was virtually no talk of abrogating the constitution; most of the new ministers were moderate, and both the Sultan and the new vizier pledged to respect the legislature's prerogatives. And unlike the losers of prior power struggles, neither Midhat Pasha nor Şinasi were imprisoned or banished, and they knew much better than their rival what a political opposition could do within a constitutional system. As the 1880s dawned, they would transform Ottoman politics into something based more on institutions than personalities...

_______

[1] In OTL, similar albeit less far-reaching tax reforms (including an income tax and an expanded corporate-profits tax) were enacted in 1886.

[2] The Ottomans did default in 1875 OTL, which prompted central banking reforms somewhat like what is occurring here, but the empire's tax revenues still went into receivership for much of the 1880s. In this timeline, finances will still be a problem, but the earlier tax and banking reforms will maintain solvency.

[3] Loris Melikian was a Russian general during the OTL war, and Hussein Avni Pasha is of course historical; all other military commanders have no historical counterparts.
 
Very excellent update. I wonder who will end up being the Khan of the Crimea? Are there still members of the Giray family hanging around? And I like Salonika becoming a free city.
 
Wonderfully written Ottoman update, and very interesting. I have a few questions:

Were there forces in the Ottoman Empire opposed to the kind of tax reform you discussed? If so, why didn't you mention them? Why might they oppose the tax reform?

Same question with the Balkan reforms. I'm talking, of course, about ethnic Turks - I think the position of the Balkan peoples is pretty clear.

With what amphibious capabilities did the Ottomans launch an invasion (no matter how limited) of the Crimea? Did I miss something in an update? Will the Ottomans be basing ships in the bit of southern Crimea they get? And if so, won't that be a massive provocation?

And finally, what's the status of Arabia, Mesopotamia, and in general, the Arab parts of the Ottoman Empire? I seem to have completely forgotten. If they're still in the Empire, how did they feel about this war? Could Russia begin supporting nationalist/revolutionary movements there?

Lastly, a map of this would be great! You could make it yourself, but as I recall, you don't like to, so you could call on one of the expert mapmakers who has made maps for you in the past.

Wonderful update, Jonathan, keep it up!

Cheers,
Ganesha
 

Hnau

Banned
I really enjoyed this last update. About a year ago I was studying Russo-Ottoman relations in the nineteenth century for a timeline that didn't pan out, and it was fun to be somewhat "in the know". :)

Romania joined the Ottoman Empire against Russia? I didn't see that one coming! That would change things considerably in this alternate Russo-Turkish War of 1877-78. The Turkish conquest of the Caucasus and southern Crimea is pretty big... there's going to be plenty of revanchists in Russia for some time. I think such a significant victory for the Ottomans will inspire the Tatars and other Islamic peoples of Central Russia for some time... I predict it will be much more restive there than even OTL.

I hope you run with the idea of this defeat stoking the revolutionary flames in the Russian Empire. When Russia was defeated by the Japanese in 1905 it led to the 1905 revolution and the establishment of the first soviets and the strengthening of the parties that would be key players in the 1917 revolution. Russian defeat by the Japanese also caused plenty of military and economic reforms, though by 1914 the Imperial government had not finished with all the changes they had intended. We could see similar developments in Russia, only a generation earlier. This would be most interesting.

You've created so many interesting and entertaining ideologies in this timeline, Jonathan, I'd love it if you came up with one for Russia. I once researched a dead political movement in Imperial Russia for a timeline, Narodnichestvo, which was fascinating. Incidentally, it began to be formulated in the 1860s and 1870s around this time period. They had some cool ideas about village communes and the socialization of land. I hope I see a political ideology show up in this timeline's Russia as colorful! :)

Great job as always!
 
Would Africans in Britain live anywhere outside of London? Maybe lower-class industrial-worker immigrants might move to Manchester or Glasgow to work there.

What about Senegalese in France? Anywhere outside of Paris? Elsewhere in Europe? You're putting very intelligent and interesting thought into this, Jonathan, keep it up!



I think it's more a question of when, then a matter of hope. The only hope I have is that I hope I get to be the one to nominate it. :p

Cheers,
Ganesha

I think so Ganesha. For example, parts of greater Newcastle, the principal port of NE England, developed a community of Yemeni sailors (men) from 1890, who, by end of WW1 had reached 3,000. They largely integrated into Newcastle's population and married local women.

See here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Shields#Yemeni_community
 
I have to say that latest installment was well written, as always. But there is a number of head-scratchers here:
1. Battles of Varna and Edirne at the same time. For that to happen Varna would have been under siege since almost the start of the war, as the second Russian force to get to Edirne would have to fight through Pleven/Tyrnovo, cross Balkan Mountains (IOTL Russians only manged it by using an animal trail to bypass and attack from behind Ottoman force blockading Szypka Pass, IIRC) then follow Marica River. One would have thought in such situation Ottomans would evacuate Varna.
2. Thessaly and Salonica. Salonica is in Macedonia and I don't see why there'd be any motion about it becoming Greek ITTL.
3. Crimea. I honestly can't fanthom Russia giving away any part of it. Especially after fighting over it during Crimean War. On the other hand considering the enormous advantage of strength of Ottoman navy over Russian Black Sea fleet in 1877-8 OTL I don't see Ottomans having big problems supplying their forces - unless you make Makarov even more succesfull than OTL.
 
I think so Ganesha. For example, parts of greater Newcastle, the principal port of NE England, developed a community of Yemeni sailors (men) from 1890, who, by end of WW1 had reached 3,000. They largely integrated into Newcastle's population and married local women.

See here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Shields#Yemeni_community

Fascinating. Thanks for that knowledge, Julius Vogel. Learning stuff like that is what makes AH.com a wonderful place to be!

*snip*
3. Crimea. I honestly can't fanthom Russia giving away any part of it. Especially after fighting over it during Crimean War. On the other hand considering the enormous advantage of strength of Ottoman navy over Russian Black Sea fleet in 1877-8 OTL I don't see Ottomans having big problems supplying their forces - unless you make Makarov even more succesfull than OTL.

Really? The Ottoman Navy had an advantage? Fascinating (no sarcasm). Could you elaborate? I'm really very interested. I thought Russia's Black Sea Fleet was pretty strong.

Cheers,
Ganesha
 
The Ottoman's gains against Russia would seem to balance out their loses in the Balkans... but what's the Austrians' reaction to all of this? Surely Serbia, and to a lesser extent even Romania, is going to fall under the Hapsburgs sway in the near future.
 
Very excellent update. I wonder who will end up being the Khan of the Crimea? Are there still members of the Giray family hanging around? And I like Salonika becoming a free city.

The Giray family did continue to exist, and lived in the Ottoman Empire after the fall of the khanate. I assume that one of the exiles with a connection to the family would be named Khan.

Were there forces in the Ottoman Empire opposed to the kind of tax reform you discussed? If so, why didn't you mention them? Why might they oppose the tax reform?

Same question with the Balkan reforms. I'm talking, of course, about ethnic Turks - I think the position of the Balkan peoples is pretty clear.

Tax reforms, including not only changes to the tax code but cadastral surveys and administrative reforms, took place throughout the Tanzimat, so an overhaul of the taxation system was already well under way. The tax on corporate profits dates from the 1860s in OTL, and the Ottomans were able to implement a graduated income tax during the 1880s without much trouble (which did in fact improve their finances).

Central banking reforms also took place in OTL right around this time. The difference is that in OTL, the reforms were basically forced by the creditor nations; here, they result from Sinasi's preference for elite professional governance. The new banking regulations certainly do increase the confidence of the creditor nations, but they're an indigenous reform, and so will have more staying power.

I don't think there would be any organized opposition to the tax or banking reforms reforms - there'd be scattered local opposition from people whose exemptions are being revoked or officials who are losing some of their power, but nothing coherent, and many of the opponents will be co-opted.

As to the Balkan reforms, I'll link again to Abdul Hadi Pasha's excellent population map. Serbia and Romania were already gone, for all intents and purposes, so giving de jure independence to them wouldn't have much effect on the Balkan Muslim population. It also seems possible to create a coherent Bulgarian autonomous province centered on Sofia, in which the Muslim population is relatively small. Skopje, Bitola/Monastir and that coastal area in the Selanik vilayet would have to be left out for strategic reasons, but at this point, the Ottomans are paying Bulgars to leave those sanjaks and Muslims to move in. This will result in some exchange of populations, although many on both sides will stay. In any event, the Bulgarian province will still be subject to Ottoman oversight, so there will be built-in protections for the Muslim minority.

The Greek-majority areas are also coherent, other than that sanjak south of Edirne, and from other ethnic maps I've seen, the Muslim population of those areas was relatively small. Their rights are also being protected in the postwar dispensation.

It's a typical Balkan settlement - nobody's going to be very happy with it, but everyone will be able to live with it, at least in the near term.

With what amphibious capabilities did the Ottomans launch an invasion (no matter how limited) of the Crimea? Did I miss something in an update? Will the Ottomans be basing ships in the bit of southern Crimea they get? And if so, won't that be a massive provocation?

As Tizoc said, the Ottomans had a pretty big navy in OTL, although by this time they were falling behind on upkeep and modernization. In this timeline, the navy has somewhat more prestige due to the resolution of the *Aceh crisis, and the empire's finances aren't as bad, so the warships are better maintained and more of them have been refitted.

The Ottomans won't be using the Crimea as a naval base - that's one of the minor clauses of the peace treaty.

And finally, what's the status of Arabia, Mesopotamia, and in general, the Arab parts of the Ottoman Empire? I seem to have completely forgotten. If they're still in the Empire, how did they feel about this war? Could Russia begin supporting nationalist/revolutionary movements there?

The Arab provinces, aside from Egypt, are still in the empire. Arab nationalism isn't an issue yet, but there will definitely be people interested in fomenting it, and any such movement may also have religious implications.

Lastly, a map of this would be great! You could make it yourself, but as I recall, you don't like to, so you could call on one of the expert mapmakers who has made maps for you in the past.

I don't dislike making maps - it's just that my maps aren't works of art the way Kaiphranos' are. I'll try to do maps of the postwar Balkans and Caucasus over the weekend.

Romania joined the Ottoman Empire against Russia? I didn't see that one coming!

Neither did the Tsar or Prince Michael. :p The spark was one of those random atrocities that happen when regimental commanders violate their orders, and the Russian court messed up the politics badly. If alternate history becomes a genre in this timeline, there will be a great deal of speculation on what would have happened if the Tsar had listened to his wiser courtiers.

The Turkish conquest of the Caucasus and southern Crimea is pretty big... there's going to be plenty of revanchists in Russia for some time. I think such a significant victory for the Ottomans will inspire the Tatars and other Islamic peoples of Central Russia for some time... I predict it will be much more restive there than even OTL.

I'd mentioned that one of the campaigns of the Great War will involve Lawrence of Arabia-style stirring-up of Central Asian nationalism, and the outcome of the Caucasian theater will be one of the things that makes this possible. Of course, the Russians will be doing the same thing in the Ottoman hinterland. The Great War isn't going to be a fun time.

I hope you run with the idea of this defeat stoking the revolutionary flames in the Russian Empire. [...] You've created so many interesting and entertaining ideologies in this timeline, Jonathan, I'd love it if you came up with one for Russia. I once researched a dead political movement in Imperial Russia for a timeline, Narodnichestvo, which was fascinating. Incidentally, it began to be formulated in the 1860s and 1870s around this time period. They had some cool ideas about village communes and the socialization of land. I hope I see a political ideology show up in this timeline's Russia as colorful!

There will definitely be some colorful ideologies in Russia, ranging from various forms of socialism to reactionary populism. I hadn't known about Narodnichestvo, but now that you've pointed me to it, something like it will definitely be part of the mix.

I anticipate that there will be a few attempted revolutions during the 1880s, but that they won't be immediately successful, and while there will be incremental reforms, there will also be heavy reaction. Things will get worse for Russia before they get better. But they will get better. The Great War will force political change in a number of countries, and Russia at the turn of the twentieth century will be a very different place from twenty or even ten years earlier.

Nice to see the Ottomans not being the stereotypical 'Sick man' as well.

The Ottomans aren't exactly healthy, but they definitely aren't the sick man. Basically, what happened is that the general reformist trend in this timeline's Islamic world led to a more professional culture in the Ottoman government and the earlier implementation of a constitution, thus giving the reforms time to be felt before the outbreak of war. The confidence that will result from the military victory, and the better state of imperial finance due to the taxation and banking reforms, will help this process become self-sustaining. There will, however, be growing pains - Arab and Balkan nationalisms will still be an issue, and the pace and extent of democratization will be very contentious.

I have to say that latest installment was well written, as always. But there is a number of head-scratchers here:

1. Battles of Varna and Edirne at the same time. For that to happen Varna would have been under siege since almost the start of the war, as the second Russian force to get to Edirne would have to fight through Pleven/Tyrnovo, cross Balkan Mountains (IOTL Russians only manged it by using an animal trail to bypass and attack from behind Ottoman force blockading Szypka Pass, IIRC) then follow Marica River. One would have thought in such situation Ottomans would evacuate Varna.

That's a blunder on my part, but maybe I can justify it. In this timeline, the prelude to war happened much faster than in OTL: the Ottomans had less time to see the war coming, and the troops by the frontier were less prepared. Also, the main thrust of the Russian invasion is through Tuna rather than Bulgaria (which in this timeline is neutral). Thus, the invasion route doesn't go through Shipka Pass, and the Russians are able to drive the Ottomans further south before they can entrench themselves and organize a front. In the meantime, the Ottomans at Varna are unable to retreat due to the danger of being cut off, and decide to defend the city in order to tie up Russian troops and deny the Tsar the use of a major Black Sea port. Does this sound reasonable?

2. Thessaly and Salonica. Salonica is in Macedonia and I don't see why there'd be any motion about it becoming Greek ITTL.

This timeline's "Thessaly" doesn't entirely conform to the Thessaly administrative division of OTL; it includes most of the contiguous Greek-majority areas shown on Abdul Hadi Pasha's map (linked above), with its border at the Vardar. The free port of Salonika includes the area immediately east of the border.

3. Crimea. I honestly can't fanthom Russia giving away any part of it. Especially after fighting over it during Crimean War. On the other hand considering the enormous advantage of strength of Ottoman navy over Russian Black Sea fleet in 1877-8 OTL I don't see Ottomans having big problems supplying their forces - unless you make Makarov even more succesfull than OTL.

The Crimean Khanate isn't very big -- basically, it only includes the areas that the Ottomans actually occupied at the end of the war. I'll do a map over the weekend, but if you look at the darker-shaded areas on the southern portion of this map, you'll have an idea of its borders. The Russians will still have Sevastopol, and the Khanate will be a relatively weak state - its Ottoman vassalage, and the fact that it was created by treaty, will help it stay independent in the short term, but it still won't be able to anger the Russians very much.

The naval balance: I'd thought that the capabilities of the Ottoman navy and the Russian Black Sea fleet were more evenly matched, but I might also suppose that many of the Ottoman warships were tied up intercepting Russian attempts to resupply the Balkan front.

The Ottoman's gains against Russia would seem to balance out their loses in the Balkans... but what's the Austrians' reaction to all of this? Surely Serbia, and to a lesser extent even Romania, is going to fall under the Hapsburgs sway in the near future.

Serbia and Montenegro will definitely drift into the Habsburg orbit - both of them need a protector from the Ottomans, and Russia can't play that role any more. The Austrians, naturally, will also want to add Bosnia to their sphere of influence, assuming they can take it. This will actually be the beginning of the Austro-Russian accommodation, because they'll both have a mutual interest in weakening the Ottomans. I'm not as sure about Romania - having been backed into an alliance with the Ottoman Empire, they may try to maintain it, but on the other hand, they may look to Austria as their guarantor.

There will be a great deal of unfinished business all around when the Great War breaks out.
 
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