Malê Rising

Only 1.3 million in Russia? That's a pretty heavy emigration (sure, it's dropped precipitously OTL, but Russia in this world was far less crapsack than the USSR or post-Communism Russia/Belarus/Ukraine)

This is mainly a result of heavier persecution, and sometimes outright expulsion, between 1878 and the beginning of the Great War. The Russian Jews who were still there after the war mostly stayed, but the population never recovered. There has also been attrition through intermarriage that wasn't quite balanced by recruitment through intermarriage.

4.1 million in Salonika: how many non-Jews in Salonika, and how large is the place again?

The total population is about 4.7 million, and the land area is about the same as metro Thessaloniki IOTL (1400 to 1500 sq. km.). That's about half as dense as Hong Kong, and Salonika is more evenly built up so it doesn't have the pockets of extreme high-rise density that Hong Kong has, but it's a dense city, and maintaining public space is a constant fight. Some of the metropolitan area ITTL has also spilled over the border, so there are people who commute every day from Greece or the Ottoman Union.

The 1915 vignette showed Salonika somewhat like Naples. In 2015 it's a cross between Singapore, Tel Aviv and Amsterdam - a bankers' and traders' city, but one with strong grass-roots countercultures.
 
This is mainly a result of heavier persecution, and sometimes outright expulsion, between 1878 and the beginning of the Great War. The Russian Jews who were still there after the war mostly stayed, but the population never recovered. There has also been attrition through intermarriage that wasn't quite balanced by recruitment through intermarriage.

Does Russia as used in that demographic statement include the Baltic states, Belarussia and the (non-Polish) Ukraine?
 

yboxman

Banned
The total population is about 4.7 million, and the land area is about the same as metro Thessaloniki IOTL (1400 to 1500 sq. km.). That's about half as dense as Hong Kong, and Salonika is more evenly built up so it doesn't have the pockets of extreme high-rise density that Hong Kong has, but it's a dense city, and maintaining public space is a constant fight. Some of the metropolitan area ITTL has also spilled over the border, so there are people who commute every day from Greece or the Ottoman Union.

The 1915 vignette showed Salonika somewhat like Naples. In 2015 it's a cross between Singapore, Tel Aviv and Amsterdam - a bankers' and traders' city, but one with strong grass-roots countercultures.

Didn't you mention at some point Ottoman policy designed to prevent the concentration of Russian-Jewish Immigrants/refugees in any one spot? And wouldn't such a huge concentration in Saloniki, absent persecution in the rest of the Ottoman empire or a very strong ethno-nationalism you ruled out, lead to a spillover of Jews seeking economic opportunities to Istanbul and Izmir?

For that matter, such a massive influx of Jewish capital and economic activity into Salonki would almost certainly trigger increased Slavic, Greek and Turkish immigration into the city and it's environs, with low-end Jewish laborers unable to compete with the cheaper unskilled labor of the Turkic-Slavic immigrants absent a strong ethno-nationalist based workers union. That's what happened in Ottoman and Mandatory Palestine. Heck, that's what happened in New York City.

I love the idea of a semi-autonomous Jewish Salonki but market forces and Ottoman policy would seem to be against it.
 
Does Russia as used in that demographic statement include the Baltic states, Belarussia and the (non-Polish) Ukraine?

Counting that, the population probably should be higher, yes - I was thinking Russian Federation and momentarily forgot how much more of the Pale TTL's Russia includes. Two million rather than 1.2 might be a reasonable figure.

Didn't you mention at some point Ottoman policy designed to prevent the concentration of Russian-Jewish Immigrants/refugees in any one spot? And wouldn't such a huge concentration in Saloniki, absent persecution in the rest of the Ottoman empire or a very strong ethno-nationalism you ruled out, lead to a spillover of Jews seeking economic opportunities to Istanbul and Izmir?

The Ottoman policy, at least before the revolutions and the transition to the Ottoman Union, was to discourage too many Jews from settling in the Levant. They were fine with Jews in Istanbul and Izmir, because there would be no likelihood of Jewish nationalist claims on those places. And the Porte liked Jews in Salonika even more, because it wasn't formally part of the empire - with Jews concentrated in that city, they'd get the benefit of it being controlled by an Ottoman-friendly population while minimizing the disruption that hundreds of thousands of Jewish refugees (many of them radical) would bring to the empire proper. There would be some out-migration of Jews to the major Ottoman cities, but Salonika's position as the Singapore of the Balkans would leave it well placed to become a financial and commercial center in its own right. Once that happens, migration in and out would balance, especially once the appeal of living in a majority-Jewish city-state is factored in.

For that matter, such a massive influx of Jewish capital and economic activity into Salonki would almost certainly trigger increased Slavic, Greek and Turkish immigration into the city and it's environs, with low-end Jewish laborers unable to compete with the cheaper unskilled labor of the Turkic-Slavic immigrants absent a strong ethno-nationalist based workers union. That's what happened in Ottoman and Mandatory Palestine. Heck, that's what happened in New York City.

The Turkish and Greek workers might prefer to live on their respective sides of the border, though, where the culture is more familiar - Salonika, even within its expanded Free City boundaries, is small enough for workers to commute. The greater Salonika metro area, which will include parts of Greece and the integral Ottoman Union, is likely to be less Jewish than Salonika proper. But as the surrounding areas reach economic parity, Jewish workers from the city proper will also be more competitive. Maybe the Free City should be 75-80 rather than 90 percent Jewish, but otherwise I'll stand by my figures.

Anyway, since I'm in Alaska right now and since I've been too busy vacating to complete the Caribbean-Canadian update, let’s talk about Alaska in the Malêverse. As in OTL, the United States bought Alaska in 1867, and although the beginning of the gold rush might vary by a few years either way, some trapper is bound to find the yellow stuff before long. So there would still be a mining-center city more or less at Fairbanks (which was Alaska’s largest city IOTL until the 1940s or 50s), and there would probably be an equivalent to Juneau built along the fur-trapping and mining-supply routes.

On the other hand, it’s far from guaranteed that *Juneau would become the capital. It might stay at Sitka, where it was under Russian rule, or else move to a city like Valdez or *Seward which is actually accessible by road from the rest of the state.

Also, the rise of Anchorage was highly contingent. It began as a railroad work camp for the Fairbanks-Seward line and was slowly dying on the vine by the 1930s until the WW2-era military buildup saved it just in time. ITTL, if Seward weren’t built as a mining port, or if Valdez were chosen instead as the main port for gold shipments, the Anchorage area might never get built up, and even if it does, there’s no Second World War to revitalize it when the railroad construction boom ends. If this happens, then instead of having one large metro area that contains almost two thirds of its population, Alaska might have no large cities at all, with several medium-size ports in the south-central and southeastern regions and small-to-medium regional centers in the Matanuska-Susitna valley.

An Alaska without an Anchorage-equivalent would be a less centralized Alaska, which in the Malêverse seems only fitting - more Russian in some areas, more Native in others, and a mixed culture along the panhandle as there has been for centuries. I also expect that the Native land conflicts wouldn't play out in quite the same manner - Alaska has always been somewhat different from the rest of the country in that regard, but ITTL it would be different in a different way. There would probably be, as IOTL, a balance between sharing of subsurface rights and ownership of surface land, but I'm guessing it would be more tilted toward local and individual control, with the exact mechanics being anyone's guess.
 

yboxman

Banned
The Ottoman policy, at least before the revolutions and the transition to the Ottoman Union, was to discourage too many Jews from settling in the Levant. They were fine with Jews in Istanbul and Izmir, because there would be no likelihood of Jewish nationalist claims on those places.

I may have made the wrong connection. OTL Abdulhamid offered Herzl settlement in Mesopatamia rather than the levant but he didn't want them concentrated in any one place there either. Hence, he insisted that any settlements the Jews build there be scattered in a manner similliar to that of the Circassians/Abkhaz- and with the porte selecting suitably spaced out locations.

Not 100% sure that even TTLs liberal porte would be sanguine about a heavily localized concentration of Jews in the Balkan borderlands. While they certainly wouldn't pose a danger of a pro-Russian fifth column, the porte might be more leery of the possibility of British or French, or even Austrian (especially ITTL. but even OTL FJ was hugely popular amongst Mittleuropan and Polish Jews. OTOH TTLs Austro-hungary stresses Catholic identity more, right?) attempts to use a heavy Jewish concentration to gain a sphere of influence. There is, after all, the Maronite precedent in Lebanon (or were the 1840 and 1860 interventions butterflied away?).

Still, I suppose you can rationalize Jewed up Saloniki as an unplanned outcome of the post 1870s refugee crisis which the porte decided was too much bother to overturn in the post-war exhaustion.

And the Porte liked Jews in Salonika even more, because it wasn't formally part of the empire - with Jews concentrated in that city, they'd get the benefit of it being controlled by an Ottoman-friendly population while minimizing the disruption that hundreds of thousands of Jewish refugees (many of them radical) would bring to the empire proper. .

Ahhh, that makes more sense then. With Saloniki not under the same administrative mechanisms as the Ottoman empire proper the business and cultual environment there for non-elite Jews would probably be better than Izmir and Istanbul, though spillover will still undoubtabely occur to some extent.

Remind me again, when did Saloniki achieve a "special statues"? Sorry for not mastering the fine details but TTL is HUGE.

The Turkish and Greek workers might prefer to live on their respective sides of the border, though, where the culture is more familiar - Salonika, even within its expanded Free City boundaries, is small enough for workers to commute..

Haven't thought about that. WHen does consumer Motor transport spread to the Balkans TTL? Though I suppose trams and rails might do for commuters until the 1960s or so.

The greater Salonika metro area, which will include parts of Greece and the integral Ottoman Union, is likely to be less Jewish than Salonika proper. But as the surrounding areas reach economic parity, Jewish workers from the city proper will also be more competitive. Maybe the Free City should be 75-80 rather than 90 percent Jewish, but otherwise I'll stand by my figures..

Fair enough. And Saloniki is an absolutely cool "Pin the Zion on Eurasia" location.
 
...There is, after all, the Maronite precedent in Lebanon (or were the 1840 and 1860 interventions butterflied away?).

I'd have to read this post and others following it more closely, but I'm going to say, probably not so much.

Aram Sakalian, The Young Ottomans from Tanzimat to Democracy (Stamboul: Abdülhamid University Press, 2011)...
The autonomist movements were mainly composed of Christian minorities, particularly in Lebanon, the Balkans and the Ottoman-controlled part of Armenia, who wanted not only legal equality but control of their own affairs. They were supported in this by the European powers, many of which – despite the growing respect for Muslim peoples in West Africa and elsewhere – disliked the idea of an Islamic state ruling over Christian populations. Russia, which considered itself the protector of the Slavs and Greeks, and France, which had assumed a similar role toward the Lebanese Maronites, were particularly insistent in this regard, and the autonomist movements openly courted European sponsorship. ...

The question then is whether the reforms championed by Ibrahim Şinasi gave the Ottoman State enough power to stand up to the OTL force the French applied, not only in the form of a reforming army funded by reforming finances but in some combination of reinforcement of resolve of the Muslim majority of the Empire as a whole versus conciliation of the Christian locals in Lebanon--Şinasi's prescription being that rectifying recent excessive centralization by local councils whose membership would be elected without formal division into faith groupings would allow Christians to dominate locally wherever they were an actual majority (and have a strong influence where they were a large minority I guess--but the spirit of his slogan of "Citizens not Dhimmis" is moving away from the millet system formal allocation of specified powers to specified communities and toward a unified, Westphalian sort of state identification of all subjects regardless of faith.

I don't recall Jonathan expounding specifically on the outcome in Lebanon; one might suppose that a mere decade or so out from the distant Brazilian/West African POD essentially none of Şinasi's program had been enacted, therefore things had to go pretty much as OTL. But I think even if the French did have their way as far as they did OTL in Lebanon in the 1840s, over the subsequent decades the tendency toward Lebanese Christians seeking and getting French patronage was checked and reversed along Şinasian or populist-Belloist lines. Certainly by the time of the Great War, with France on the opposite side from the Sultanate and the latter enjoying at any rate moral support (if not so much effective material support:rolleyes:) from their British and North German allies, any remnant of that period would be reformed administratively right out--if this were politically feasible. At any rate if the Maronites managed to hang on to their super-millet status it would have to be on the basis of their own bargaining power with the Porte--including of course their implicit ability to mess up the Ottoman war effort by insurrection, but in the circumstances, isolated from effective French power and with the Russians and Austrians also held at bay far from their region, they'd suffer the full power of the Sultanate's punishment for open treason, aided by the Muslim-majority regions surrounding them. French protection would hardly be a trump card during the war!

So I'd guess that any formal power-sharing arrangements the French helped set up would be whittled away, providing the Porte could offer a sufficient number of Maronites sufficiently acceptable terms they could live with, and in the post-war world Lebanon would be a place where Christians held a local balance of power solely to the extent that their actual numbers warranted, and as elsewhere in the Sultanate, very possibly sectarian political identity was cross-cut or made completely irrelevant against more class-based interest identities.

But I might have missed more detailed exposition on Lebanon in the general flow of events elsewhere.:eek:

Anyway other matters come to a head well before the Great War!

...
Remind me again, when did Saloniki achieve a "special statues"? Sorry for not mastering the fine details but TTL is HUGE.
Indeed! And many are those, in this and other timelines I read, who cry out for a "story only" thread but I personally think that what we have here is far better; not only can one construct a "story only" narrative by just opening the successive single posts one by one, but the titles form a sort of index. To find something that doesn't warrant the main attention of a whole post (and most posts involve several parts with some thematic unity but covering other aspects as well) we might need to search the whole thread for say "Lebanon" or "Maronite," but just scanning these titles by eye one sees that the post I linked to above is the first that focuses on the Sultanate, while turning up several more before we get to the Great War years. "The War of the Balkan Alliance (aka the Russo-Turkish War of 1877)", Installment 57, post 691 seems likely enough to address such a drastic development and lo and behold:

...
Hilaire Lind, The War of the Balkan Alliance (Paris: Flammarion, 1960)
… The peace conference, which convened at Rome in August 1877, proved nearly as messy as the war. It was clear that the Ottomans had won, but the European powers’ opposition to continued Turkish rule over restive Balkan Christian populations was equally clear, and their position was given weight by the fact that Ioannina and Crete remained out of Ottoman hands. The result was that, despite their military victory, the Ottoman Empire actually lost Balkan territory in the peace settlement.

The government of Greece initially requested that the Greek-majority sanjaks be annexed to it outright. It was quickly told that it was in no position to make demands, but nor were these territories returned to the Ottomans. Instead, the European powers used the leverage provided by Dimitrakis’ boots on the ground to create the Duchies of Crete and Thessaly. Each duchy would be nominally independent and would have its own legislature; however, each would also be subject to one Greek and one Ottoman commissioner, the consent of both would be required to pass any legislation, and the Ottoman representative would have power to guarantee the rights of the Muslim minority. In addition, at the Porte’s insistence, the port of Salonika was made a free city rather than being incorporated into Thessaly, in the anticipation that its Jewish majority, which was pro-Turkish, would enable the Ottomans to maintain control over sea traffic into the region...

… The final peace treaty was signed on October 12, 1877. In Stamboul, it was greeted with mixed emotions. The restitution of the Crimean khanate and the gains in the Caucasus were highly popular and the financial indemnity would help defray the cost of the war and provide for the wounded soldiers, but the loss of the Greek territories, even under mutual supervision, cast a shadow on the victory. There was a growing sense that the empire had not done as well at peace as it had at war...


WHen does consumer Motor transport spread to the Balkans TTL? Though I suppose trams and rails might do for commuters until the 1960s or so.
The Great War was the tipping point for a lot of characteristic 20th Century type petrol vehicles, including aircraft but quite massively, road/surface motor vehicles--the French word "fiacre" becoming common even in English for automobiles, I believe "truck" prevailing even in Britain for what Americans OTL call that, "rider" from the German Ritter for what we call "tanks." We saw an installment (#96) featuring a prototype of both fiacres and trucks being developed in France as a wonder-weapon and later we have an Abacar participating in an overland strike over the Sahel in armed trucks. Mention was also made of how they amplified the logistical punch of Catholic League forces moving through nominally neutral Belgium to join the assault on lower Rhenish Germany.

I infer that both sides implemented them very rapidly in great numbers on and near the western European fronts, but they also spread rapidly to Africa, where they would be thinner on the ground but all the more valued for their ability to cover distances quickly; West Africans on both sides as well as neutrals such as Liberians would therefore have quickly incorporated at least a thin layer of infrastructure, mechanic facilities as well as rapidly developing petrol distribution networks.

These would draw on an explosively growing mining/refining infrastructure; there was no mention but one might well suppose US firms made out like bandits selling to both sides initially from East Coast sources such as Pennsylvania--dunno when the Texan and Southern Californian fields would be found--nor for that matter just how soon it was realized OTL Nigerian sources existed). There is explicit mention somewhere in the post-war threads of just when and how the Persian Gulf complex was developed; I don't know if the Caspian or Romanian fields were known pre-War or not nor whether the Dutch fields were being exploited before or during the war. (IIRC the Netherlands stayed neutral, which was a useful status for them to have from both British and German interests; the French couldn't bother them save via Belgium and it was in France's interest for that kingdom to stay neutral on paper too--now I'm not sure where the French were getting oil if not from the Dutch, since even if Algerian sources were known they'd be tough to rely on across the Med--US imports would be subject to RN interception as "contraband" one supposes.

Hmm, the petro-politics of the Great War itself would be quite interesting to flesh out!:)

Anyway I would bet that even if the Ottoman fronts were backward in this respect (and the Russians were not out of the loop regarding motor vehicles, so the Sultan's forces would at least be facing some war-fiacres and gun-hauling trucks) then if not immediately, then in the last year or so their allies would be sure to assist them with spare deliveries, probably generous or even free licensed manufactures and anyway some mechanic infrastructure and development of roads on key fronts. I forget just how close either the Russians or Austrians ever got to Thessaly; I don't believe Salonika or Istanbul were ever approached closely though it may have been quite touch and go for a while. So one or the other, possibly both but if just one most likely Istanbul itself probably got some fiacre-manufacturing set up during the last years of the war, and both would I think have got some influx of German, British or even Empire-made vehicles operating out of the cities to support the fronts to the north.

With the coming of the peace, then, Salonika would probably already have quite a network of roads, if only of the crudest type, on which thousands of utilitarian war vehicles remained to be retained for the army or police, or sold off as war surplus, and tens of thousands of experienced drivers.

Postwar, on top of this layer of war-surplus junkers with lots of experienced mechanics to keep them running would be a new luxury market in expensive fiacres for the rich, and a pre-established set of markets for any would-be Fords in the world to sell cheaper, Spartan trucks and economy fiacres to follow, along with tractors derived from riders for the country farms and construction work.

So the pattern would be as OTL, with luxury cars going first, to regions not directly front-line or near them during the war, accelerated and lubricated by the large former frontlines where the mass automotive economy would already be laid out in nucleus much as aeronautical infrastructure plus a zillion surplus DC-3s were scattered across the globe by WWII OTL--the difference being, the war fiacres and "practical" trucks and riders would hardly saturate the market the way the Gooney Birds depressed the mid-size plane market OTL--all would be used but many people who would want a fiacre or truck or tractor post-war would not have the luck to inherit one, nor would the war issue stuff be as nice or suited to their peacetime purposes as a new post-war design.

I think the Great War did leave a general depression in its wake, but one boom market that would take up the slack would be automotive. So I'd expect something similar to the OTL 1920s auto boom a couple decades early, starting within five years at the latest of the end of the war, by which time a lot of the war surplus things would be breaking down for good.

And the various imperial spheres would each tend to favor their own colonial/patronized networks, meaning a partitioned set of parallel markets with limited overlap between them. If the Sultanate did not establish factories of its own during the war they surely would afterward, and Salonika itself seems like a likely place for some of them to be located. That city might be better situated to serve the Greek market than a more centrally held Ottoman city proper, as well as Bulgaria. Depending on who finds what oil where and when, petrol supplies can come from Libya, Algeria, Romania or piped to Levantine ports from the great Persian Gulf region reserves.

By 1920, the Salonikian hinterland could be as car-happy as Los Angeles of OTL!:eek::p
 

yboxman

Banned
Anyway, since I'm in Alaska right now and since I've been too busy vacating to complete the Caribbean-Canadian update, let’s talk about Alaska in the Malêverse. As in OTL, the United States bought Alaska in 1867, and although the beginning of the gold rush might vary by a few years either way, some trapper is bound to find the yellow stuff before long. So there would still be a mining-center city more or less at Fairbanks (which was Alaska’s largest city IOTL until the 1940s or 50s), and there would probably be an equivalent to Juneau built along the fur-trapping and mining-supply routes.

A few things which might be interesting to see, though I don't know if they would be realistic:

1. A larger Ethnic chinese community in Alaska.

OTL, Chinese made up a massive part of the Canadian gold rushes and were relatively favorably treated, partly because the Brits viewed them as potential counterwieght to American miners. Many ended up remaining and contribute to the character of Vancouver today.

In the united states, OTOH, Chinese were treated quite shabbily, by miners, state and territorial governments and the federal government alike, and few of the Chinese who participated in the pacific gold-rushes remained, or make enough money to be able to import wives from the homeland.

I'm not sure how much you touched on this earlier, but I think it's fair to assume that in the maleverse racial attitudes will be somewhat more relaxed ,allowing for a greater influx of Chinese (and later Japanese) immigrants to the west coast in general and Alaska in particular. Certainly, I seem to have the impression that no "Asian exclusion act" was passed TTL.

2. OTL the natives of the Chukchi peninsula and Eastern SIberia and the Inuits had little post 19th century interaction that was not mediated by missionaries and occidential researchers (Eg; the introduction of the reindeer).

I wonder if that might not play out differently ITTL given the earlier and more succesful native identity movements and national and international recognition of them, not to mention the earlier toppling of the Tsar, the greater role played in Tolstoyan russia's politicks by East Siberian people (Yeah, I know, Trans-Amur people, but still) and the absence of outright ideological hositlity between Russia and the U.S.

it might be a bit utopian, but seeing Inuits and Chukchis form trannational bonds and pull themselves up by their own bootstraps would be fascinating. Heck, it's the Maleverse, right?

It would be even more interesting if the inuit-chukchi connection would form a vector of transmission of Tolstoyan ideas into Alaskan politics, either as a divide between native, chinese and white identities, or as a bridge between these groups.

It would be hillarious to see a Sarah Palin clone on either side of this ideological divide.
 
Oh, please, no bumping!:rolleyes: It's mean and misleading, and Jonathan has kept up a much more rapid and reliable pace than most authors here. Don't nudge! It just annoys everyone.
 

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Alison Gordon, Modern Afro-Atlantic Politics (Univ. of Kingston Press, 2013)

… The formation of the Afro-Atlantic Common Market [1] was both effect and cause. If there hadn’t already been a cultural elite at home in all the Atlantic-rim countries, if Afro-Atlantism weren’t already an established idea, the Common Market would never have come to be. But at the same time, the treaty union created by the Market allowed the elite to grow and enabled Afro-Atlantism to become a mass movement.

There had always been considerable freedom of movement between the Caribbean islands, the Coaster enclaves of West Africa and the United States, and for two generations, it had been common for the middle and upper classes to go abroad for work and study. The Common Market formalized the zone of free movement and expanded it to include the Spanish and Creole-speaking states. People had moved between those as well – it was common for Haitians to do seasonal labor in the Dominican Republic or Cuba, and many Jamaicans had settled on Hispaniola during the troubles of the Imperial era [2] – but establishing an official presence there had been harder. Now, suddenly, it wasn’t, and the effects were quick in coming: between 1953 and 1960, the French and English-speaking communities in Havana doubled, and “Cuba Towns” grew up in Kingston and even Freetown.

Institutions followed the flow of people. In 1959, a Liberia-led consortium of Common Market countries founded the Afro-Atlantic University, with flagship campuses in Monrovia, Havana and Port of Spain. Before the 1960s were out, there were branches of the university in most Caribbean islands and coastal West African states, as well as three in the United States (Charleston, Atlanta and Houston) and others in Brazil and Mexico. Air travel and a union-run ferry network made education and jobs throughout the Common Market accessible to a majority of its people, and multilingual broadcast media existed across most of its member states by 1970. A 1966 revision to the Common Market treaty provided, as in India and the Central African Accord nations, that nationals of member countries would be treated as citizens throughout the union, allowing the cultural elite to become a political elite.

The solidarity built during the 1950s and 60s, both at the elite and the popular level, enabled the Common Market to survive the 1970s. The global recession that began in 1971 hit commodity prices hard and agricultural commodities hardest, which was devastating to a region still heavily geared toward sugar production. The Trinidad-Guiana federation had oil, and Jamaica, Cuba and Liberia had strong mining sectors and light industry, but even they had many small sugar cane growers, and on the smaller islands, sugar production and government jobs funded by sugar revenue were virtually the entire economy. Unemployment soared, many small growers were forced into debt to keep their land, and standards of living in some parts of the Common Market fell by a third, leading to mass demonstrations and calls for radical solutions.

Two opposing camps emerged: those, mainly in the larger and more diversified member states, who wanted to abandon the Common Market project and institute protectionist measures, and those who wanted to strengthen the association by reviving the sugar cartel of the 1910s-20s. [3] Jamaica and Trinidad-Guiana threatened to withdraw from the union over this issue, but these threats proved empty due to the popular support that had built up over the last two decades, and the pro-cartel faction narrowly won out at the Common Market conference of 1974. The logistics of the cartel proved easier than in the 1910s, as none of the Afro-Atlantic countries were governed any longer by colonial authorities, and by early 1975, sugar price supports were back in place.

The revived cartel still faced major challenges. Not all the cane sugar producers were part of it, and it had to compete with beet sugar from the United States and Europe, so its control over the price of sugar was limited. The Common Market also faced a lawsuit in the Court of Arbitration arguing that the cartel was monopolistic, unfair to sugar consumers, and contrary to principles of free trade between nations. The legal challenge was turned back in 1978, when a majority of the Court ruled that there were no principles of customary international law that compelled free trade or prohibited nations from combining to support commodity prices (although several judges suggested that cartels might be illegal if they involved key energy resources such as uranium or oil). The purely economic challenge proved the more difficult one; in the face of beet sugar competition, the cartel struggled to raise the price of cane sugar enough to permit recovery.

In the end, the cartel was only partly successful in shoring up the Afro-Atlantic economies. The rest of the job was accomplished through negotiations with the more developed sugar producers, which agreed to voluntary price support measures in return for relaxation of cartel restrictions. But even this, in the view of many, represented a victory for the cartel: if the Common Market hadn’t spoken with one voice, then it would have had far less leverage in negotiating with outside countries, and indeed, a divided Afro-Atlantic region might never have been able to persuade the rest of the world to notice its economic difficulties. As prosperity returned in the late 1970s, there were no more thoughts of breaking up the Common Market – a sentiment which only redoubled during the 1980s as tourism grew into an economic mainstay and the smaller member states saw economic unity as their protection against becoming dependent on foreign-owned tourist facilities.

There would be one more test of the Common Market’s solidarity, though, and it would be a severe one: the emergence of regulatory-capture scandals in the 1990s much like those that had swept the Zollverein and other established treaty agencies two decades earlier. The bodies that administered the sugar cartel, which theoretically represented the member states, had come to represent the sugar industry, and more than that, they had effectively been taken over by large-scale agribusiness. By the end of the 1980s, the Sugar Board’s policies were increasingly inimical to the yeoman growers and co-ops that had multiplied in the wake of the land reform of the 1940s and 50s, and the board was able to influence, and in some cases even override, government action that favored small-scale agriculture.

The scandal broke in 1992, after revelations concerning elections that had been fought on the issue of debt relief for small growers. The previous year, in both Dominica and Barbados, the governing coalitions narrowly turned back challenges from parties that supported restructuring of the debt overhang from the 1970s. In January 1992, leaked documents revealed that the Sugar Board had played a large part in the outcomes of these elections, and had financed dirty tricks and outright fraud in favor of the governing parties. Legal challenges were filed, but they dragged on, with the local courts reluctant to challenge an agency that controlled a large portion of the economy outright and that was allied with banana growers’ groups that controlled much of the rest.

In Dominica, where there was a tradition of yeoman radicalism going back to the nineteenth century, people took matters into their own hands, with massive street protests in June 1993 occupying the capital and forcing the government to resign in favor of a union of co-operatives. Elsewhere, the growing scandal became a subject of elections, court petitions and conferences for the rest of the 1990s. As in the Zollverein, a consensus developed in favor of popular participation in international institutions; in 1999, an amendment to the Common Market treaty succeeded in replacing the crony-ridden boards with the “sugar parliament,” “banana parliament” and “tourist parliament,” each directly elected and with guaranteed representation for small business and labor unions.

The performance of the economic parliaments has been mixed. They are far more transparent than what came before and regulatory capture on the scale of the 1980s hasn’t recurred, but they have been marked by rivalry between member-state delegations and disputes between the representatives and their expert staff, and have been criticized for giving insufficient representation to environmental concerns. The aftermath of the 1990s scandals has also stymied attempts to move the Common Market closer to a political union on the Indian or Nusantaran model. Proposals for a common currency, tentatively the “Afro-Atlantic pound,” have foundered over disagreements between the richer, more industrialized members and the poorer, agriculture and tourism-dependent ones as to how a monetary union would be implemented; varying conceptions of popular government and human rights have thus far thwarted the establishment of union-wide parliaments or courts outside the economic sphere; and lingering cultural differences have muted calls for political unity, especially after the accession of the Dutch islands and Surinam in 2004. The solidarity created by Afro-Atlantic institutions and shared history continues unabated, but for the majority of people in the Caribbean and coastal West Africa, it still has limits…

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Mauricio Salazar Blyden, Afro-Atlantism and the World (Monrovia: Massaquoi, 2012)


… In 2012, it’s still possible to start a fight by arguing that Afro-Atlantic culture does or doesn’t exist. Like the question of whether the West African Coasters are one people or several, the Afro-Atlantic question is tied up in ideology and nationalism. The same patterns that some see as proof of a common culture are viewed by others as mere details, and one’s view on this issue is often a good predictor of one’s political alignment.

Most people, if pressed, will admit that the Afro-Atlantic states are at least a cultural region, shaped by forced migration, slavery and European colonialism. There is also broad agreement that the region has certain cultural polestars. Liberia, the birthplace of Afro-Atlantic ideology, is clearly one; Monrovia is a flagship of the regional university and a center of education and media. On the other side of the Atlantic, Havana, Kingston, Santo Domingo and Port-au-Prince are centers of art, music and fashion, all with audiences that extend well beyond their home countries and even beyond the Common Market, and Port of Spain, as the bridge to India, is also a place where musical and artistic styles are born. Any educated person in the Afro-Atlantic world – and these days, that means almost everyone – will be familiar with the speech patterns and cultural products of these cities, and will likely have lived in more than one of them at one time or another…

… More controversial is the degree to which the demotic speeches of the Caribbean and West Africa have fused into a common language. There had always been strong similarities between the Krio language of Sierra Leone, the creoles of Liberia and Fernando Po, the Gullah speech of lowland South Carolina and Georgia, and the patois of Jamaica and Belize. Even before the end of the nineteenth century, connections between South Carolina, Liberia and Sierra Leone had turned their regional creoles into a single language, and succeeding events – the growth of a Jamaican diaspora in the 1910s and 20s, the foundation of the Common Market and the Afro-Atlantic University, the spread of mass media and music across the region – brought this trend to the Caribbean. The first university courses in the emerging Afro-Atlantic language were taught as early as 1955, and by the 1960s, it was generally agreed that the creoles of the British and American-influenced nations had merged into one speech.

The media and an increasingly mobile population brought Afro-Atlantic to the rest of the Common Market, and in the process, the new language picked up elements of Cuban and Dominican Spanish, Portuguese, Haitian Creole, standard French and Modern Hindustani. The accretion of loanwords was slow but inexorable: by 1990, literary Afro-Atlantic had as many Spanish words as the Afro-Cuban-Krio fusion of Fernando Po, and common Haitian and Brazilian expressions had made their way into the language through music. In the early twenty-first century, Afro-Atlantic was nearly as much a demotic speech in Santo Domingo, with its large and much-intermarried Jamaican community, as in Kingston or Freetown.

The spread of Afro-Atlantic inspired counter-movements to preserve the purity of regional languages, and it also accentuated regional differences in the Afro-Atlantic speech itself. The English and coastal West African core, and by the 1990s certain loanwords, were common to all dialects of Afro-Atlantic, but other loanwords varied widely from region to region. The Afro-Atlantic of Havana shaded into Spanish, that of Port-au-Prince into Kreyol, that of South Carolina and the Gulf Coast into American English. This is the reason that, even as Afro-Atlantic has become a language of literature and mass media, it continues to defy attempts at standardization, and its boundaries remain a matter of opinion…

… And then there are the foreign polestars of Common Market culture. Although the Common Market treaty zone is, by some measures, the Afro-Atlantic heartland, the larger Afro-Atlantic world includes every place where there was once African slavery. Two countries in particular, Brazil and the United States, have an outsize influence on Afro-Atlantic culture through their sheer size, wealth and interaction with the rest of the African diaspora.

Nearly every Common Market country has a diaspora in the United States, with some, such as the South Carolina Haitians or the Gulf Coast Jamaicans, going back a century or more. Most of the Afro-Atlantic states also have four-freedoms agreements with America – Liberia and Sierra Leone since 1958 (and informally long before that) and the rest during the 1980s and 90s – and it has become common for their citizens to spend time studying or working there. Add to that Liberia’s American roots, the adoption of an Afro-Atlantist outlook by much of the African-American population in recent decades, and the presence of Afro-Atlantic University campuses and other institutions on American soil, and it’s no surprise that American fashions, figures of speech, sports and political ideas spread quickly from one end of the Common Market to the other. The cultural transmission is two ways and always has been, but parts of the Caribbean and West Africa are nearly as Americanized as the Bahamas and Virgin Islands.

Brazilian influence has traditionally been stronger on the African side of the Atlantic: the Afro-Brazilian origin of several of the Coaster peoples, the regional presence of the Malê and Brazil’s extensive diplomacy toward its African descendants have made sure of that. Since the 1980s, though, Brazilian culture has also made itself felt in the Caribbean, due in large part to the popularity of Brazilian music and design, the commonalities between Afro-Brazilian and Afro-Caribbean religions, and the adoption of Afro-Atlantist ideology by a majority of black Brazilians. The presence of Brazil is still more subtle in the Caribbean than in coastal West Africa, but with the spread of Afro-Atlantic educational institutions to Brazil and vice versa, it can only be expected to increase.

Just as subtle, but still present, is the legacy of Europe. Except for the few islands that are still dominions or integral parts of European countries, there is less ongoing cultural contact with Europe than with the New World powers: Afro-Atlantist ideology is much less common among Africans in Europe than in Brazil or the United States, and although many Common Market countries are part of the Commonwealth or other European-sponsored treaty organizations, those associations are primarily political and economic rather than cultural. Still, centuries of colonialism must inevitably have an impact. In Cuba and Puerto Rico, which retain their ties to the Spanish crown, the cities still have the flavor of old Spain; the same is true of Fernando Po’s old colonial capital on the other side of the ocean. British architecture and sporting traditions still hold sway and have even spread in much of the Caribbean and Sierra Leone. Martinique and Guadeloupe, which are outside the Common Market but interact freely with it, are as French as Paris, and St. Maarten is virtually unchanged from the days of Dutch rule.

Even Mexico has become the home of a growing Afro-Atlantic community, and although most settlement from the Common Market countries has occurred this century, traces of Mexican art and folk religion are already appearing in Caribbean public squares and churches…

… The spread of foreign cultural influence in the Common Market hasn’t passed without reaction. As in the United States and Brazil, a movement to “re-Africanize” speech, art and religion took shape in the 1980s and has thousands of adherents today. But this movement has never gained the support of a majority, even locally. Most of the Common Market’s citizens then and now have adopted Afro-Atlantism’s founding principle: that they are not an African diaspora, or at least not merely one, but instead a new people which is indigenous to both shores of the ocean and whose heritage comes from many nations.

For, if nothing else, Afro-Atlantic ideology has succeeded in overcoming many of the region’s old differences: the enmity between Haiti and the Dominican Republic, for instance, is fading quickly into historical memory, as are the prejudices that divided Jamaicans from people of the smaller British islands. However politically volatile the Common Market may be as it confronts the economic and environmental challenges of the twenty-first century, the Afro-Atlantic nation has made peace with itself…

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Laurie Pillai, From Sea to Sea: Canada in a Global Age (Montreal: Union, 2014)

… The failure of the Winninpeg Charter and the subsequent compromise agreement with Québec [4] ushered in a quiet decade in Canadian politics. The voters had shown themselves to be firm supporters of federalism and equally firm opponents of constitutional tinkering, and a suitably chastened political class called a halt to its efforts to restructure the country. Negotiations with the First Nations continued, building on the foundations of the 1950s and 60s and leading to the creation of autonomous entities [5], and Arctic Canada moved closer to self-rule, but otherwise, the status quo between the federal government and the provinces was maintained.

The effective federal response to the 1970s recession did much to quiet sectional tensions for the time being. The quiet era was also aided by the social revolution taking place in Québec. In the 1960s, nationalism had been the major fault line in Québécois politics, but by the mid-70s, the focus had shifted to a three-cornered culture war between Catholic conservatives, socially liberal Catholics who took inspiration from the Portuguese “new opposition” [6], and secularists. The new battlegrounds were feminism, abortion and censorship, and the decade between 1975 and 1985, during which Québec would be transformed from one of Canada’s most culturally conservative provinces into one of the most progressive, left little time for nationalist disputes.

Ironically, though, the Québécois social transformation was precisely what led to the reawakening of national tensions in the later 1980s. The secularist movement, which governed Québec from 1979 to 1986 in coalition with the liberal Catholics, drew much of its support from Anglophones in Montréal and from first and second-generation immigrants. The more conservative Catholics came to see the culture war as not only a battle for social permissiveness but a struggle over Québécois identity. The liberals, both secular and Catholic, saw elections as a forum for deciding social policy; the conservatives saw them as a competition for cultural dominance much like the language disputes of the post-Great War era.

The conservatives’ rhetoric about a threat to Québécois culture resonated with wavering moderates who were uncomfortable with the pace of change, and in 1986, the Rally for Québécois Independence returned to power for the first time since the crisis of the 1960s. The new government resurrected the demands of the Winnipeg Charter era, including control over citizenship and immigration, and strengthened their hand with a non-binding referendum in which 52 percent of voters supported independence if these demands were not achieved.

The federal government, remembering the fiasco of Winnipeg, was reluctant to make another attempt at theorizing the relationship between the provinces and the center. Nevertheless, it saw little choice if it wanted to keep the country together, and it believed that the compromises made with the First Nations and the Métis, including the rules governing tribal citizenship, might provide a suitable foundation. Thus, with considerable trepidation, it entered into another round of negotiations, this time in Victoria. In 1987, these talks yielded another proposed charter which was not as radically post-Westphalian as Winnipeg but which still gave considerable autonomy to the provinces and territories. Provincial citizenship would not replace federal citizenship as the Winnipeg Charter had provided, but would exist alongside federal citizenship and determine qualifications for the local franchise. Provinces would also gain devolved control over many cultural and educational institutions, with a stronger federal bill of rights as a quid pro quo.

The government pitched the Victoria Accord to the voters as a product of experience, one that had taken on board the lessons of Winnipeg and the First Nations negotiations. But again, the voters were more skeptical, especially of the possibility that the proposed constitution might create a class of second-class citizens with only a federal franchise. The Accord passed in Québec and two other provinces, including British Columbia where the still-contentious First Nation claims gave the idea of provincial citizenship some appeal, but failed in the others and did not win an overall majority.

In the wake of the referendum’s failure, the Québécois government declared independence. Québec’s nationhood would be short-lived, as several of the ruling party’s deputies got cold feet and crossed the floor before the government could even begin negotiating terms: a new election brought the liberals and secularists back to power and put paid to any thought of secession for the time being. But this was little comfort to the federal government, which looked forward to a bleak future in which provincial demands would continually escalate and the country would always be on the verge of breakup. Several politicians and editorial writers in the early 1990s went so far as to proclaim the Canadian project finished.

Again, however, Canada would work better in practice than in theory. The expected breakup never quite materialized, with the Québécois Catholic conservatives becoming increasingly marginal in provincial politics, and the later 1990s pointed to a possible way forward. The Victoria Accord had failed as a package, but polling suggested that several of the cultural provisions might have passed if put to the voters individually. Most voters viewed it as reasonable that political units, and distinct societies within them, should have the right to protect their cultural patrimony, a feeling that was heightened by the widespread acceptance of the “Sitka Meetings” between the Arctic peoples of Canada, Alaska, Siberia and Japanese Kamchatka. And as Québécois nationalism softened and the province continued to secularize, cultural autonomy also became an increasingly acceptable solution from their standpoint.

The “Millennium Referendum” of 2000 thus put before the voters only the cultural and educational devolution provisions of the Victoria Accord, carefully worded so that francophone Québécois, as well as the province as a whole, would qualify for devolved institutions if they wanted them. This time, with civic autonomy off the table, the vote succeeded. Québec has, of course, used its devolved powers more fully than most of the other provinces – among other things, it opened an office in the Consistory and joined the French university network – but others have also formed natural ties: the Maritimes with Scotland, Ireland and the Dominion of Newfoundland, British Columbia with the Pacific rim, the Arctic peoples strengthening the links created in the Sitka Meetings.

The years since the Millennium Referendum have been relatively quiet, much like the 1970s. The breathing space is a welcome relief after the tensions of the 1980s and 90s, but it remains to be seen whether Canada has finally found a theory that works in practice or whether the present day is the calm before another storm…
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[1] See post 5304.

[2] See post 4462.

[3] See post 3584.

[4] See post 5944.

[5] See posts 6329 and 6352.

[6] See post 6368.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Interesting section...

Interesting section...

The "near abroad" of the United States, north and south.

Didn't "your" Britain go neo-fascist during the 1920s-30s? I may have missed it, but I'd think that sort of development would have driven the Canadian provinces and an autonomous Newfoundland into alliance if not union with the U.S.

Well done, as always.

Best,
 
Interesting section...

The "near abroad" of the United States, north and south.

Didn't "your" Britain go neo-fascist during the 1920s-30s? I may have missed it, but I'd think that sort of development would have driven the Canadian provinces and an autonomous Newfoundland into alliance if not union with the U.S.

Well done, as always.

Best,

That's the 1910s with the Imperial Era fiasco and the Indian War of Independence ended it already with the Imperial sympathizing Crown and the Imperial Party lead government overthrown by the socialists and moderates. That's almost a hundred years ago.

Amazing update, I can't wait for the Nusantaran Union and the Philippine Republic's place in it. :)
 
A new post! Like a refreshing drink on a hot dry summer day!:)

… The formation of the Afro-Atlantic Common Market [1] was both effect and cause. If there hadn’t already been a cultural elite at home in all the Atlantic-rim countries, if Afro-Atlantism weren’t already an established idea, the Common Market would never have come to be. But at the same time, the treaty union created by the Market allowed the elite to grow and enabled Afro-Atlantism to become a mass movement.
I expected this--but sooner, and not on as large and wide a scale as it belatedly comes, eventually.

Back in the days when South Carolina and its Circles regime stood almost alone in the USA, while the Great War was brewing and then boiled over, I figured Carolinians and West Africans might patronize each other economically; that import fiacres from West African manufacturers would be a thing in South Carolina, or that West Africans choosing to purchase American-made products would have a preference for Carolinian firms. That was the sort of thing I was thinking about back then, reflecting on the fitful presence of US African-American campaigns to purchase from Afro-American owned firms.

I didn't properly envision the depth, breadth and perseverance of the Coasters and their various root systems inland though. In retrospect its growth has been shot all through the timeline of course.

I found quite often reading this post that questions that came to me were addressed reading further down so that was very satisfying. One of them, in the main and first parts of this excerpt, being "what about Carolina?" Until the post addressed the relationship of US citizen Afro-Americans with the "Common Market" I wondered if in the interim, sometime between the 1910s and the 2010s, African Americans had been so successfully assimilated into the general US culture (which is to be sure far less homogenized as a whole than OTL) that they drifted away from their trans-Atlantic web--that African Carolina had rendered vital assistance to the whole but had bowed out over time.

Farther down it is clear that this is not so; the USA is tied, via its African Americans and their friends, with the wider African-Atlantic network to this day. The world as a whole seems less an assortment of rival nation-states and more a web work-hardly seamless, but there is almost always a net of ties across any particular seam, and many paths from one node to another (as the Canadian part of the post illustrates--North America is tied to France via Quebec, and also via the French Caribbean; Francophiles can leave the USA on one path and come back via another.

I was wondering where Carolina was in the formal governing institutions of the Afro-Atlantic Common Market; I figured there was no way to formally include Charleston and US citizen Carolinians (and African-Americans resident elsewhere) since the national government they'd come enveloped in as it were was too big and on the whole too non-African to really belong there. On a level below governance though, it was made clear enough how deep the ties run--branch University campuses not only in Charleston but Atlanta (once Felton's bastion of Redeemer reaction, recall!) and Houston.

The fate of the sugar growers was interesting; they have to compete with temperate climate grown sugar beets--but apparently no one is championing maize-derived fructose. To which I applaud. I once assumed fructose had to be a "better" sugar than sucrose. But the guilty fact is, I've discovered for some years now that my aversion to most sorts of soda pop one could most easily buy here in the USA is really that I don't like the taste of fructose sweetener. Drinks like that, and other uses of sugar, generally are not really any sort of healthy food I suppose--but why fall between stools? If I am going to sin in diet, let me enjoy it! I quite like Mexican Jarritos sodas, which taste totally artificial but I find most of their flavors superior to more traditional US alternatives--and some of their flavors are simply delicious. Try their guava soda sometime if you can find it, or their strawberry. (The mango, I find, mixes better with vodka than anything else I've tried:p). I hate US colas, Coca-Cola and Pepsi--but give me a bottle of Mexican Coca-Cola and I'll thank you; the difference is in the sugars and nothing more. I suspect maybe I just react to the flavors the sodas used to have when I was a little kid, because I gather it was during a corn blight crisis sometime in the Nixon administration that the US soda industry switched over to corn-based sugar; so when I get a bottle of Mexican bottled Coke or Pepsi product, I'm getting a taste that I got when I was a child. And I like it.

So--ITTL, is corn sugar not nearly so much of a thing, because even at the higher prices the cartel sought to impose, cane (or beet) sugar remained cheap enough that few in the consumer food business were tempted to switch to maize sugar?

Anyway as I read that I figured that long term way out of the crisis was for the sugar farmers to diversify. Sooner or later there would be waves of reaction against the sort of compromised food that industrialized food production tends to deliver. Probably less than OTL, since probably ITTL more organic foods have held out better in common diets despite the economies of scale of homogenized central food corporations.

And meanwhile, much of what market share the centralized food purveyors have managed to capture is more diverse than OTL, with different regions having their own mass-produced parodies of the various regional diets instead of Euro-American developed foods displacing local ones--and vice versa, the global corporations feed back diverse foods from other lands into the various markets, at first with limited imports of products from elsewhere at specialized ethnic markets catering to immigrant clusters and other expatriates, but then the people of the host country stumble upon the fast and or junk food versions of other nations and the demand picks up beyond those expatriates to the general population. So even though junk food based on West African, southern African, Indian, Nusantran or Filipino or East Asian nations or Caribbean or South American organic cuisines remain junk, with the wrong quasi-nutrients and preservatives, it is more diverse junk--someone who snacks on a good mix might be better approximating actual nutrition as the gaps of one are filled by the remaining goodness of another. And of course then this is a gateway to the curious trying the real thing some time, and being better prepared for the strangeness of it and better primed to taste what is uniquely good.

So when the anti-junk food crusades get going, the more organic alternatives will be widely available in domestic markets very far from their origins. No nation or region will be "pure" in its traditional foods; rival foreign stuff will be available everywhere. And appreciated.

So--traditional ethnic crops that OTL serve merely as the local alternative to globalized foods and crops will be themselves sellable on the global market. So, blights and climatic disasters that smite one region's favored foods will be compensated both by the same crops or close equivalents from other regions being available on the market, and by entirely different foods remaining available too; the likelihood of one region suffering for lack of its favored, locally understood staple foods would be lower since substitution would be something everyone is more accustomed to. Famine then would be a matter (as it tragically generally is) of market failure rather than failure of the actual supplies, and in this world of feisty local democratic movements permeating most every society, starvation would probably be prevented by public actions tending to damp out speculative market fluctuations.

Could the mutual globalization of all cuisines help explain why corn syrup type sugars don't get the protectionist and industrial bandwagons they did OTL--with US farmers catering to a more diversified market, their overall commitment to maize is a bit less, and the maize crops they grow are more specialized hence less homogenous; perhaps no corn blight takes hold because of greater biodiversity in the maize fields, and a glitch in the maize market is not seen as something that needs protectionism to rectify to sustain an influential mass industry, but rather as something farmers need to adapt to.

The TL probably doesn't have Coca-Cola but whatever equivalent thing it has, no one puts corn syrup into it!

The narration does not indicate that the peoples forming the sugar cartel get away from dependence on selling their sugar crop by means of massive diversification. Any tendency for the sugar market to be depressed because of healthy foods movements seeking to cut down on its general use would be offset by rising populations; cane sugar will always find some sort of market.

The major new diversification mentioned is not agricultural at all; the cartel's role in buffering relations with the rising tourism industry suggests that although clearly tourism retains some of the toxic effects of OTL, it will be at least somewhat less so here, and perhaps after the wave of heavier democratization of the regulatory bodies, a lot less.
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The picture of the crowd with the OTL Canadian flag raises the question--did Canada, at some point, perhaps the Winnipeg Charter, adopt the OTL flag by some coincidental parallel path? Or were you just stuck for a good picture and forced to use the OTL flag, and we should imagine it as a different flag the crowd is holding?
 
I'd have to read this post and others following it more closely, but I'm going to say, probably not so much.



The question then is whether the reforms championed by Ibrahim Şinasi gave the Ottoman State enough power to stand up to the OTL force the French applied, not only in the form of a reforming army funded by reforming finances but in some combination of reinforcement of resolve of the Muslim majority of the Empire as a whole versus conciliation of the Christian locals in Lebanon--Şinasi's prescription being that rectifying recent excessive centralization by local councils whose membership would be elected without formal division into faith groupings would allow Christians to dominate locally wherever they were an actual majority (and have a strong influence where they were a large minority I guess--but the spirit of his slogan of "Citizens not Dhimmis" is moving away from the millet system formal allocation of specified powers to specified communities and toward a unified, Westphalian sort of state identification of all subjects regardless of faith.

I don't recall Jonathan expounding specifically on the outcome in Lebanon; one might suppose that a mere decade or so out from the distant Brazilian/West African POD essentially none of Şinasi's program had been enacted, therefore things had to go pretty much as OTL. But I think even if the French did have their way as far as they did OTL in Lebanon in the 1840s, over the subsequent decades the tendency toward Lebanese Christians seeking and getting French patronage was checked and reversed along Şinasian or populist-Belloist lines. Certainly by the time of the Great War, with France on the opposite side from the Sultanate and the latter enjoying at any rate moral support (if not so much effective material support:rolleyes:) from their British and North German allies, any remnant of that period would be reformed administratively right out--if this were politically feasible. At any rate if the Maronites managed to hang on to their super-millet status it would have to be on the basis of their own bargaining power with the Porte--including of course their implicit ability to mess up the Ottoman war effort by insurrection, but in the circumstances, isolated from effective French power and with the Russians and Austrians also held at bay far from their region, they'd suffer the full power of the Sultanate's punishment for open treason, aided by the Muslim-majority regions surrounding them. French protection would hardly be a trump card during the war!

So I'd guess that any formal power-sharing arrangements the French helped set up would be whittled away, providing the Porte could offer a sufficient number of Maronites sufficiently acceptable terms they could live with, and in the post-war world Lebanon would be a place where Christians held a local balance of power solely to the extent that their actual numbers warranted, and as elsewhere in the Sultanate, very possibly sectarian political identity was cross-cut or made completely irrelevant against more class-based interest identities.

But I might have missed more detailed exposition on Lebanon in the general flow of events elsewhere.:eek:

Anyway other matters come to a head well before the Great War!


Indeed! And many are those, in this and other timelines I read, who cry out for a "story only" thread but I personally think that what we have here is far better; not only can one construct a "story only" narrative by just opening the successive single posts one by one, but the titles form a sort of index. To find something that doesn't warrant the main attention of a whole post (and most posts involve several parts with some thematic unity but covering other aspects as well) we might need to search the whole thread for say "Lebanon" or "Maronite," but just scanning these titles by eye one sees that the post I linked to above is the first that focuses on the Sultanate, while turning up several more before we get to the Great War years. "The War of the Balkan Alliance (aka the Russo-Turkish War of 1877)", Installment 57, post 691 seems likely enough to address such a drastic development and lo and behold:





The Great War was the tipping point for a lot of characteristic 20th Century type petrol vehicles, including aircraft but quite massively, road/surface motor vehicles--the French word "fiacre" becoming common even in English for automobiles, I believe "truck" prevailing even in Britain for what Americans OTL call that, "rider" from the German Ritter for what we call "tanks." We saw an installment (#96) featuring a prototype of both fiacres and trucks being developed in France as a wonder-weapon and later we have an Abacar participating in an overland strike over the Sahel in armed trucks. Mention was also made of how they amplified the logistical punch of Catholic League forces moving through nominally neutral Belgium to join the assault on lower Rhenish Germany.

I infer that both sides implemented them very rapidly in great numbers on and near the western European fronts, but they also spread rapidly to Africa, where they would be thinner on the ground but all the more valued for their ability to cover distances quickly; West Africans on both sides as well as neutrals such as Liberians would therefore have quickly incorporated at least a thin layer of infrastructure, mechanic facilities as well as rapidly developing petrol distribution networks.

These would draw on an explosively growing mining/refining infrastructure; there was no mention but one might well suppose US firms made out like bandits selling to both sides initially from East Coast sources such as Pennsylvania--dunno when the Texan and Southern Californian fields would be found--nor for that matter just how soon it was realized OTL Nigerian sources existed). There is explicit mention somewhere in the post-war threads of just when and how the Persian Gulf complex was developed; I don't know if the Caspian or Romanian fields were known pre-War or not nor whether the Dutch fields were being exploited before or during the war. (IIRC the Netherlands stayed neutral, which was a useful status for them to have from both British and German interests; the French couldn't bother them save via Belgium and it was in France's interest for that kingdom to stay neutral on paper too--now I'm not sure where the French were getting oil if not from the Dutch, since even if Algerian sources were known they'd be tough to rely on across the Med--US imports would be subject to RN interception as "contraband" one supposes.

Hmm, the petro-politics of the Great War itself would be quite interesting to flesh out!:)

Anyway I would bet that even if the Ottoman fronts were backward in this respect (and the Russians were not out of the loop regarding motor vehicles, so the Sultan's forces would at least be facing some war-fiacres and gun-hauling trucks) then if not immediately, then in the last year or so their allies would be sure to assist them with spare deliveries, probably generous or even free licensed manufactures and anyway some mechanic infrastructure and development of roads on key fronts. I forget just how close either the Russians or Austrians ever got to Thessaly; I don't believe Salonika or Istanbul were ever approached closely though it may have been quite touch and go for a while. So one or the other, possibly both but if just one most likely Istanbul itself probably got some fiacre-manufacturing set up during the last years of the war, and both would I think have got some influx of German, British or even Empire-made vehicles operating out of the cities to support the fronts to the north.

With the coming of the peace, then, Salonika would probably already have quite a network of roads, if only of the crudest type, on which thousands of utilitarian war vehicles remained to be retained for the army or police, or sold off as war surplus, and tens of thousands of experienced drivers.

Postwar, on top of this layer of war-surplus junkers with lots of experienced mechanics to keep them running would be a new luxury market in expensive fiacres for the rich, and a pre-established set of markets for any would-be Fords in the world to sell cheaper, Spartan trucks and economy fiacres to follow, along with tractors derived from riders for the country farms and construction work.

So the pattern would be as OTL, with luxury cars going first, to regions not directly front-line or near them during the war, accelerated and lubricated by the large former frontlines where the mass automotive economy would already be laid out in nucleus much as aeronautical infrastructure plus a zillion surplus DC-3s were scattered across the globe by WWII OTL--the difference being, the war fiacres and "practical" trucks and riders would hardly saturate the market the way the Gooney Birds depressed the mid-size plane market OTL--all would be used but many people who would want a fiacre or truck or tractor post-war would not have the luck to inherit one, nor would the war issue stuff be as nice or suited to their peacetime purposes as a new post-war design.

I think the Great War did leave a general depression in its wake, but one boom market that would take up the slack would be automotive. So I'd expect something similar to the OTL 1920s auto boom a couple decades early, starting within five years at the latest of the end of the war, by which time a lot of the war surplus things would be breaking down for good.

And the various imperial spheres would each tend to favor their own colonial/patronized networks, meaning a partitioned set of parallel markets with limited overlap between them. If the Sultanate did not establish factories of its own during the war they surely would afterward, and Salonika itself seems like a likely place for some of them to be located. That city might be better situated to serve the Greek market than a more centrally held Ottoman city proper, as well as Bulgaria. Depending on who finds what oil where and when, petrol supplies can come from Libya, Algeria, Romania or piped to Levantine ports from the great Persian Gulf region reserves.

By 1920, the Salonikian hinterland could be as car-happy as Los Angeles of OTL!:eek::p

I've been liking a lot of these updates, and the discussions related to them, I have. With that said, however, I do feel like there is something to point out, in what may be my first (small) criticism of something within this TL.

To be honest, although this is rather unique amongst AH.com's TLs, the usage of the word "fiacre" to describe *all* motor vehicles, is a fair bit on the implausible side, and here's why.

The main reason I point this out, by the way, is that, according to a little cursory research, the word "fiacre" originated solely as a word used to describe a certain type of vehicle, that is, specifically and solely a four-wheeled carriage, similar to a Hackney, for hire on the streets of Paris, Vienna, and a few other major continental cities.....and going back to the 1600s at that. Why is this a plausibility issue? The TL's POD is in 1840, well after the term "fiacre" had been firmly established.

Whereas OTL's for "automobile" & "car"-though the word "carriage", from which we get the word "car" is rather older than "fiacre", it was never solely used for any one type of horse-drawn vehicle, and was, in fact, a generic term(ultimately borne from the Roman word "carrum", or wheeled vehicle).....and "automobile" itself is a modern term that merely required for a combination of two ancient words, one Greek and one Latin, and was also highly generic.

Perhaps it may be set in stone now, but had I noticed this a while ago, I'd have suggested "autocar" or something as the generic term, with "fiacre" limited to *taxis and maybe a couple of other applications(such as *armored cars, which, if I'm not mistaken, were the first mentions of fiacres in this story.).

So, yeah. I sincerely hope neither Jonathan or any of the other readers minds this little tangential stream of consciousness(and I don't want to seem like I'm being hard on J.E. in particular, because I didn't intend to be!), but it's been on my mind for a couple of days and I couldn't help but want to get this off my chest. :eek:

Otherwise, though, I still think you had some interesting ideas here, Shevek, and I'll be patiently awaiting the next update from J.E. himself, when it comes. :):cool:
 

Deleted member 67076

Dominican Republic is going to be so weird here. (In a good way.) That early end to isolationism and the slow but steady integration into the Afro Atlantic common market is going to see so quite a lot of influence from the Anglo Caribbean as opposed to just US influence.

And then there's the extra wealth which is going to translate to more immigrants from all over coming in and adding their own stuff.

Its... incredibly hard to picture how the modern state would look like.
 
Dominican Republic is going to be so weird here. (In a good way.) That early end to isolationism and the slow but steady integration into the Afro Atlantic common market is going to see so quite a lot of influence from the Anglo Caribbean as opposed to just US influence.

And then there's the extra wealth which is going to translate to more immigrants from all over coming in and adding their own stuff.

Its... incredibly hard to picture how the modern state would look like.

Seems about right to me, TBH. But no Trujillo, or a Trujillo the opposite of his OTL counterpart, would have a real bonus, IMHO. :D
 

Deleted member 67076

Seems about right to me, TBH. But no Trujillo, or a Trujillo the opposite of his OTL counterpart, would have a real bonus, IMHO. :D
A Trujillo the opposite of OTL would be an absolute horror. Liberal and democratic but terrible at managing an economy, leading to near systematic bankruptcy. For all the shit the guy did (to which I cannot defend), his first 20 years were marked with vast economic growth, rapid increase in light industry and the elimination of the foreign debt owed by the republic.

This would just be another Luperon, which would be depressingly common and get no where.
 
I've been liking a lot of these updates, and the discussions related to them, I have. With that said, however, I do feel like there is something to point out, in what may be my first (small) criticism of something within this TL.

To be honest, although this is rather unique amongst AH.com's TLs, the usage of the word "fiacre" to describe *all* motor vehicles, is a fair bit on the implausible side, and here's why.

The main reason I point this out, by the way, is that, according to a little cursory research, the word "fiacre" originated solely as a word used to describe a certain type of vehicle, that is, specifically and solely a four-wheeled carriage, similar to a Hackney, for hire on the streets of Paris, Vienna, and a few other major continental cities.....and going back to the 1600s at that. Why is this a plausibility issue? The TL's POD is in 1840, well after the term "fiacre" had been firmly established.

Whereas OTL's for "automobile" & "car"-though the word "carriage", from which we get the word "car" is rather older than "fiacre", it was never solely used for any one type of horse-drawn vehicle, and was, in fact, a generic term(ultimately borne from the Roman word "carrum", or wheeled vehicle).....and "automobile" itself is a modern term that merely required for a combination of two ancient words, one Greek and one Latin, and was also highly generic.

Perhaps it may be set in stone now, but had I noticed this a while ago, I'd have suggested "autocar" or something as the generic term, with "fiacre" limited to *taxis and maybe a couple of other applications(such as *armored cars, which, if I'm not mistaken, were the first mentions of fiacres in this story.).

So, yeah. I sincerely hope neither Jonathan or any of the other readers minds this little tangential stream of consciousness(and I don't want to seem like I'm being hard on J.E. in particular, because I didn't intend to be!), but it's been on my mind for a couple of days and I couldn't help but want to get this off my chest. :eek:

Otherwise, though, I still think you had some interesting ideas here, Shevek, and I'll be patiently awaiting the next update from J.E. himself, when it comes. :):cool:

"Fiacre" does not refer to all motor vehicles in ATL modern English; it refers exclusively to automobiles Americans call "cars," not to trucks, jeeps or tanks known here as "riders."

My suggestion: the interaction of the wartime position of France and the USA. We see an instance of a French development of a practical motor vehicle, for a suitably downgraded value of "practical." This is hardly proof the French are far ahead of course; later in the war both sides have them so the Germans and British are not far behind.

But the position of France is rather similar in broad terms to that of Germany in the OTL Great War; her own core territory inviolate; a domestic social and political structure that is a mix of authoritarian aristocracy and a strong democratic/parliamentary movement (but far less fraught with existential struggle to the death than in the OTL German Empire; the Bonapartist Empire has had generations to accustom itself to the juxtaposition of republican radicalism and Bonapartist stratification--and indeed Bonapartist legitimacy is deeply rooted in the Revolutionary tradition, sort of a Hegelian synthesis that has evolved into the new antithesis of the persistent radical revolutionary populist thesis if y'all follow...:eek: Anyway in territorial terms, the French armies occupy their German foe's soil and not the other way round, and indeed the French situation is much better than OTL German in that they also have southern German kingdoms and principalities on their side as allies--not populist ones to be sure and that is France's ultimate undoing. But through most of the war, France is relatively isolated from global trade due to RN blockade, but enjoys a broader swathe of more or less contiguous European territory to draw resources from.

Therefore, I reason, the wartime regime of France decides that despite wartime shortages, it would be more inspirational than provocative to have the rich of Paris, and/or the distinctively aristocratic or heroic individuals, to start driving private autos even during the war; it is an inspiring view of the glorious future of the Empire once they inevitably win the war.

These vehicles would in fact fit precisely into the narrow niche you've pointed out "fiacres" occupied as horse-drawn personal transport of the well-off in Paris.

These are only a fraction of the motor vehicles France produces; by far the majority are no-nonsense military/utility models. But in Germany and Britain, there are no corresponding private vehicles for the duration; all of their production is exclusively for war purposes.

The Great War makes heavy demand on horses after all; the domestic supplies of all powers are going to be badly depleted quite soon. The BOGs can import more horses from the USA with good assurance of their safe arrival across the ocean, but the French and Austrians have no such vast resource to draw on--hence the "patriotism" of the Parisian elite substituting motor vehicles to demonstrate how France responds.

Meanwhile one reason the USA sits on the fence and ultimately stays out of the war is that there is popular sympathy for as well as animosity against both sides pretty evenly. Americans like France and French culture; the French like Americans. Old ties to Britain and new ones to Germany, a source of many recent immigrants, are also strong; the result is US ambivalence. But the French are stereotypically considered both advanced and "fancy." To attempt to address balance of payments, French motor firms license production of "fiacres" to American enterprises. Private automobiles in the USA thus appear under a French label in that vast market.

There are no corresponding models being designed in Britain and still less Germany. By the end of the war, the equivalency of private fancy four wheeled transport vehicle = "fiacre" is established in American English; domestic designers with no ties to French licensers still call their products that to enter the market. British patriotism would suggest a different name postwar but they are recovering from a costly war; the term Americans favor dominates.
 
YAY! Johnny's back! Long time no see.

Anyways, Jonathan. While I really like this timeline, admittedly a lot of the events in 19th century South america were rather confusing to be, due to nor being described in much detail.

For example, You mentioned a "second platine war" and a "third platine war" without describing them much. I assume that there are related to the OTL "platine war", but I would like to know more. Also, I didn't quite understand what it was that caused Argentina to collapse during the great war.

Thing is, it is very clear to me that TTL averts the "nothing ever happens South America" trope, but the details of what actually happened outside of Grao Para, Brazil and Aruacania in the 19th century seem rather sketchy, and I am curious.
 
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