Malê Rising

But we have Al-Umum al-Muttahida today: the UN. (Which is why I brought up millet after our earlier conversation, I casually wanted to see what it was called.) It is ironic that millet remains religiously charged in Arabic, while we've adopted (at one point at least, maybe less so today than in the mid-20th century Arab elite circles of Cairo and Damascus) Ummah for the UN; opposite, it seems from what you say, in Turkish

Well, I am fairly sure that "milla" can be used in a non-religious sense in Arabic too (although in general it is not a very widely used word), but my impression is that a religious connotation remains dominant. "Umma" is consistently used both ways.
I believe that having the same root, if not the same word, used in Arabic and Turkish would important for the Ottoman states, and in this case, a plural of "Umma" (where the very use of a plural form excludes a strong religious undertone) is a better choice.
However, I could go on for a couple of hours (I think that actually I will; my students will probably be imparted a lengthier version of this discussion in a couple of months) but that would be derailing the thread.
 
JE, any chance you'll get to Central America? If you have no plans to, I'd be happy to write another update set in either narrative cycle...

I was going to touch on it briefly in the Latin America update, but I'd be a lot happier to see a more detailed guest update from someone with regional knowledge.

Something like China (or, for that matter, the Soviet Union) OTL then? Showing that it has the technical chops of any of the great powers?

Pretty much. India will want to show that it can do what the great powers do, which is increasingly defined in terms of industrial clout and technical feats. And if, say, East African or Southeast Asian astronauts are launched into space on Indian rockets, so much the better for showing leadership.

However, multiethnic empires are cool (and France now is one ITTL) and nationalism is fucking dangerous.

On the other hand, multiethnic empires always have to walk a fine line in balancing "multiethnic" with "empire." France has, at this point, reached a balance that's harmonious for most of the nation (including many of the DOMs) but that other outlying areas don't care for. Marianne's concern, and that of the French government, is how to do justice to those regions without breaking the status quo that works for everyone else. In some cases, that might mean independence or special arrangements - but either one would have to be managed carefully.

What you describe is actually what I understand to have been the course of semantic shift of "Millet" in Modern Turkish. "United Nations" is translated "Birleşmiş Milletler". However, this is post-POD and quite likely to be a semantic shift that occurred in a Kemalist frame of political language and liguistic policy. Nothing like that ever occurred ITTL, or could have realistically have occurred in a surviving Great Power Ottoman Empire, I think.

Of course, "Umma" (
"Ümmet" in Modern Turkish) is likewise a religiously loaded term in Arabic, and even more so in Turkish where its modern usage appears to be entirely religious (and specifically Islamic; it is not really the case in pre-Modern Arabic). I'd still argue that it would be the most likely word in TTL's context, especially considering the identical word with a very close basic meaning in Hebrew (I think some scholars hold that the Arabic word is actually a Hebrew borrowing, for which there is not hard evidence but the reasoning is fairly sensible).

As you say, TTL's Ottoman state hasn't undergone anything like Kemalist secularism, even in Mesopotamia. Millets in the traditional sense are still important in much of the union, and with them still around, there would be less reason to repurpose the word (and more potential confusion if it is repurposed).

And the religious connotations of "ummah" aren't really a problem. The union is, after all, still based partly on religion - it's a community of Muslim nations (with a few minor exceptions) and the Sultan-as-Caliph is one of the lynchpins holding it together. Someone is also bound to point out, as Nassirisimo has done, that the original concept of "ummah" wasn't exclusive to Muslims, so Mount Lebanon, the Jebel Druze, the various Mesopotamian minorities and whatever kind of autonomous collective Chayat Haaretz winds up with in Palestine can still be part of it. Indeed, "ummah" might be justified as representing the religious aspects of the union while "muttahid" represents the secular aspects.

But we have Al-Umum al-Muttahida today: the UN. (Which is why I brought up millet after our earlier conversation, I casually wanted to see what it was called.) It is ironic that millet remains religiously charged in Arabic, while we've adopted (at one point at least, maybe less so today than in the mid-20th century Arab elite circles of Cairo and Damascus) Ummah for the UN; opposite, it seems from what you say, in Turkish

Hmmm. With Turkey and much of the Arab world being part of the same union (even if some of the outlying Arab countries are part of it mostly in name), would there be more unity between Turkish and Arabic political terminology, with "ummah" and "millet" continuing to have the same connotations in both languages? For that matter, how would literary/formal Arabic inside the Ottoman Union relate to literary/formal Arabic outside it? I expect there will be a movement to standardize the language throughout the Arab world and create something like the Fusha Arabic of OTL, but in practice, would there end up being several standards (Ottoman, Maghrebi, possibly Egyptian), or even separate codifications in politically distinct regions like Algeria, Morocco and South Arabia? Or would the literary clout of Ottoman Arabic, especially if Egyptian writers and television commentators also use it, be enough to establish a single standard?

I had very little idea. My "didn't dare" was meant as ironic, but according to your books stands fairly close to reality. so Liechtenstein is actually the first country to have repelled a Nazi invasion by itself. Which in itself begs the AH question: what if the Nazis didn't back down there and entered a conflict with Switzerland in Spring 1939?

There's actually some speculation on that here, along with a more detailed account of the coup attempt; the author's belief is that if Hitler had pushed, Switzerland wouldn't have done anything and Liechtenstein would have vanished, possibly never to be resurrected. The option of a conflict with Switzerland is more interesting, though - the Swiss army was geared for defensive war, and I wonder if it might have been able to successfully defend Liechtenstein in 1939. (We probably shouldn't take this discussion too much farther, though, at least not on this thread.)

What's happened to Bulgaria, BTW? I don't recall any mention of the Ottomans resolving that last nationalist uprising.

It was mentioned, but in passing: Bulgaria got full independence at the same time the Ottoman Union was established. Keep in mind that TTL's Bulgaria is smaller than the OTL state and doesn't have a coastline, although independence came with concessions regarding the use of Ottoman ports.
 

Sulemain

Banned
Is Bulgarian a monarchy or a republic? Much as I dislike the Tsarist system, the title of Tsar is, in of itself, pretty cool.

I suspect the royal visit to India will be jet propelled, or, at least, I hope so.

With Britain not having to maintain the BOAR ITTL's 50-90 period, the armed forces will much more resemble Mountbattern's ideal of expeditionary marines and paras, with a smaller heavy core. Think OTL modern France, actually. I suspect the French model will be alot more common, and portable tanks like the AMX-13 90 and OTL prototypes like the Bat Chat 25T to be the norm in Europe ITTL 60s.
 
There's actually some speculation on that here, along with a more detailed account of the coup attempt; the author's belief is that if Hitler had pushed, Switzerland wouldn't have done anything and Liechtenstein would have vanished, possibly never to be resurrected. The option of a conflict with Switzerland is more interesting, though - the Swiss army was geared for defensive war, and I wonder if it might have been able to successfully defend Liechtenstein in 1939. (We probably shouldn't take this discussion too much farther, though, at least not on this thread.)

It's interesting speculation but wildly off-topic here. Perhaps I'll open an appropriate thread on it.
I might post some thoughts about standardization of Arabic ITTL tomorrow.
 
Warning for minor spoilers (they'll be revealed in the next update, and you've probably guessed most of them already):

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Great map JE. It's nice to see another update on where the Abacars are as the 3rd and 4th generations are heading into their middle and twilight years, along with the world around them. Can't wait to see where the 5th and 6th will take their family legacy.
 
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Deleted member 14881

JE, I have a question about astronomy in TTL. Do radio telescopes exist or is astronomy limited to visual telescopes?
 
When are they going to hit oil in Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, and Angola? Equatorial Guinea's oilfields are in the shallow waters, so when will offshore, shallow-water drilling start?
 
Hmmm. With Turkey and much of the Arab world being part of the same union (even if some of the outlying Arab countries are part of it mostly in name), would there be more unity between Turkish and Arabic political terminology, with "ummah" and "millet" continuing to have the same connotations in both languages?


Most likely yes. At the very least, there would be more reciprocal influence and greater closeness. I also can see Arabic remaining a more significant source of borrowings into Turkish (and, to a lesser extent, vice-versa).

For that matter, how would literary/formal Arabic inside the Ottoman Union relate to literary/formal Arabic outside it? I expect there will be a movement to standardize the language throughout the Arab world and create something like the Fusha Arabic of OTL, but in practice, would there end up being several standards (Ottoman, Maghrebi, possibly Egyptian), or even separate codifications in politically distinct regions like Algeria, Morocco and South Arabia? Or would the literary clout of Ottoman Arabic, especially if Egyptian writers and television commentators also use it, be enough to establish a single standard?

Well, written "formal" Arabic has largely remained under one main standard since about the age of Muhammad. Fusha Arabic is not a modern creation as you seem to imply, but rather a largely Medieval one is in many regards, especially in the written form (most case endings are dropped in common modern pronounciation, but they aren't written anyway).
So, there would be relatively little need for "standardization", like IOTL.
The point is about 1) modernization 2) the possibility to raise spoken varieties of Arabic into systematic formal use.

Mind you, a form of modern standardization happened, especially in the sense of a linguistic "purification" of post-classical literature, which often diplayed traced of the spoken language; likewise, the ortographic norm became much more strict, and some typically Magribi writing uses have almost disappeared, both effects of the spread of the printing press centered in Egypt and the Levant.

I general, I think that the reasons that made a politically very fractured Arabic world to stick with a modernized standard version of the classical language across the whole Arabic space IOTL are largely going to stay there ITTL. Arabic has even more prestige ITTL, and it would be even less rational for countries such as, say, Tunisia to change that for official adoption of a Tunisian spoken variety whose standardization is all to be done.
However, ITTL there is not any major form of Arabic Nationalism steeped in desperate romanticism against an intractable and utterly hostile geopolitical context, that IOTL has fostered an strong focus on Arabic language as a symbolic and identitary rallying point.
So that spoken varieties may have more room to gradually trickle into more formal uses earlier and less challenged (as they had started to do all along the Ottoman age AFAIK, before the modernization set in). "Minority" langauges as the Berber varieties or Nubi may be in a better shape as well.
I general, the result is likely to resemble the complex interplay of varieties (or level of formality) of OTL's Arab world in the general lines.

The only thing that might change this picture is the Maghribi nationalism you mentioned in passing. For one, I think that the Maghribi script is very likely to be mantained and thrive ITTL, which might make an Ottoman reader feel strange when reading something printed in Algeria (and the reverse) but won't affect overall mutual intelligibility much.
 
Jonathan, very interesting, however, it's quite hard to know which colour is which in the wealth map. They are all very similar.
 
What is funny to see is the contrast with an OTL map of Africa: there is so few straight lines!



One of my friends who is a Catalanist said me once a very sensed thing: the Catalans didn't intend to even think of independence before Franco forbade use of Catalan, making these people of whom many were fluent also in Spanish suddenly aware of their ''Catalan'' identity.

I couldn't argue about this is or not actual, for my knowledge of Spanish social and cultural history is limited, but that give an idea of how these matters of regionalism could go.

In France, I don't know of regionalist movements before late 20th century.
However, the regional identities were strongly suppressed by Republicans of Jacobinist tradition in the name of indivisibility. The matter took a more dramatic turn with the reforms of Jules Ferry in education which had forbidden the teaching of other languages than French.
The other stepstone was the Great War which somewhat standardized the languages used: Bretons, Basques and Corsicans couldn't but speak in French to understand each other.

I can conceive that the Empire doesn't be engaged in active suppression of regional identities like the Third Republic, and I can say that the Bonaparte family (Napoleon III and his cousin, our TTL Napoleon IV) were very attached to the Corsican roots of the family.
Still, one can't take away what happened in the trenches, the fraternity forged there between soldiers from all the Empire.
 
One of my friends who is a Catalanist said me once a very sensed thing: the Catalans didn't intend to even think of independence before Franco forbade use of Catalan, making these people of whom many were fluent also in Spanish suddenly aware of their ''Catalan'' identity.

That is not really true though. Catalanist elements have existed in Spain in a political role since about 1898 and the more radical ones appeared in the 1920s, including some weird Catalanist fascist movement looking to recreate the Crown of Aragon. Identifying with Catalonia was very common already in the 1900s, after all that's when the first demands for Catalan autonomy appeared (the Lliga's Mancomunitat de Catalunya)

Franco did not forbid the use of Catalan either, what it was not allowed for political sphere nor in several cultural ones (early on, then it relaxed in the 60s), but you could speak it at home or with friends.

The issue with France and French is that the country's jacobine attitude towards regionalism will be there, and as the balance of power shifts to Parliament, no matter how 'tolerant' Marianne might be, the liberals and conservatives (and probably the socialists too) will not be looking forward to any sort of decentralisation or toleration of minority languages.
 
Perhaps I missed it, but has Zanzibar's empire completely collapsed into independent states (doubtful given the concept of sovereignty and states ITTL)...or is this an update to come? And Algeria is still French in someway shape or form...
 

Sulemain

Banned
I do enjoy how Africa is considerably better off then OTL :D And a lot better developed democratically, etc. Love the differing levels of relations France has with Africa.
 
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Is Bulgarian a monarchy or a republic? Much as I dislike the Tsarist system, the title of Tsar is, in of itself, pretty cool.

I suspect the royal visit to India will be jet propelled, or, at least, I hope so.

Bulgaria was an autonomous principality up to this point, so it would probably become independent as a (constitutional) monarchy, with the prince becoming Tsar. This would make two Tsars in TTL's world (the other one also has the titles of King and Governor of Eritrea).

I'd imagine that there would be civil jet aircraft in service by 1961 - you've got a better idea of what they'd use than I do.

JE, I have a question about astronomy in TTL. Do radio telescopes exist or is astronomy limited to visual telescopes?

Hmmm, not something I know much about. Wikipedia says that the first radio telescopes were developed in the 1930s, and that the invention of radar was an important step in radio astronomy. Given that radar (or EMR, as it's called in TTL) has existed since the late 1920s, and radio technology in general is as advanced or more so as OTL, I'd expect there to be radio telescopes by now, albeit primitive by today's standards.

When are they going to hit oil in Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, and Angola? Equatorial Guinea's oilfields are in the shallow waters, so when will offshore, shallow-water drilling start?

All of those except Congo and Equatorial Guinea have been discovered by now. The first Niger Delta and Angola oil fields were found in the 1950s OTL, and the first fields in Gabon were discovered (I believe) in the 1960s, so with those regions more developed ITTL, I'd imagine that the oil would be found earlier. The discovery of oil in Gabon will actually be a significant plot point in the next update.

The first oil discoveries in Congo-Brazzaville were also made in the 1950s IOTL, but exploration there was prompted in part by the deteriorating situation in French Algeria. In TTL, with that part of the Congo under German rule through the early 50s, the potential loss of oil reserves elsewhere wouldn't come into the picture, and exploration might happen a little later. And the Equatorial Guinea reserves, as you say, are offshore, and I'm not sure that offshore drilling in Africa would be economically viable just yet. Of course, that might not be the case for much longer, given that a more developed Global South means more demand for oil and that the exploration and drilling capabilities of that region are increasing.

Well, written "formal" Arabic has largely remained under one main standard since about the age of Muhammad. Fusha Arabic is not a modern creation as you seem to imply, but rather a largely Medieval one is in many regards, especially in the written form (most case endings are dropped in common modern pronounciation, but they aren't written anyway).
So, there would be relatively little need for "standardization", like IOTL.

Thanks. I did have the misconception that MSA was a modern standardization, but I see I was mistaken. Is this true of formal spoken Arabic as well - for instance, is the Fusha Arabic "received pronunciation" used by television broadcasters a 20th-century thing or does that go back further? I'd imagine that radio and television would have at least some leveling effect, although Arabic diglossia seems to be more pronounced than anywhere outside Norway.

In general, I think that the reasons that made a politically very fractured Arabic world to stick with a modernized standard version of the classical language across the whole Arabic space IOTL are largely going to stay there ITTL. Arabic has even more prestige ITTL, and it would be even less rational for countries such as, say, Tunisia to change that for official adoption of a Tunisian spoken variety whose standardization is all to be done.

Fair enough. There's also still a religious imperative to have a common written language; the Tunisians don't want to be in a position of "translating" the Koran.

However, ITTL there is not any major form of Arabic Nationalism steeped in desperate romanticism against an intractable and utterly hostile geopolitical context, that IOTL has fostered an strong focus on Arabic language as a symbolic and identitary rallying point.

So that spoken varieties may have more room to gradually trickle into more formal uses earlier and less challenged (as they had started to do all along the Ottoman age AFAIK, before the modernization set in). "Minority" langauges as the Berber varieties or Nubi may be in a better shape as well.

I general, the result is likely to resemble the complex interplay of varieties (or level of formality) of OTL's Arab world in the general lines.

So, colloquialisms and loanwords from border regions might become accepted for written use in the areas where they're spoken, and then spread throughout the Arab world via literature and mass media? I wonder if pop culture might also result in some infiltration of European languages, with Arabic ITTL having a few expressions equivalent to "le weekend" (or "el weekend" if you're Spanish).

Jonathan, very interesting, however, it's quite hard to know which colour is which in the wealth map. They are all very similar.

Yeah, I consider single-color gradients more aesthetically pleasing than a rainbow, but they always carry the risk of being hard to tell apart - especially where, as with this map, there's a concentration in one part of the scale.

The general patterns should be apparent, though: the Niger Valley, coastal West Africa, the Copperbelt and "metropolitan" South Africa are richest, while central Africa and the East African states recovering from the Bloody Forties are poorest.

What is funny to see is the contrast with an OTL map of Africa: there is so few straight lines!

Then again, the straight lines in OTL are mainly in the Sahara.

In France, I don't know of regionalist movements before late 20th century. However, the regional identities were strongly suppressed by Republicans of Jacobinist tradition in the name of indivisibility. The matter took a more dramatic turn with the reforms of Jules Ferry in education which had forbidden the teaching of other languages than French. The other stepstone was the Great War which somewhat standardized the languages used: Bretons, Basques and Corsicans couldn't but speak in French to understand each other.

I can conceive that the Empire doesn't be engaged in active suppression of regional identities like the Third Republic, and I can say that the Bonaparte family (Napoleon III and his cousin, our TTL Napoleon IV) were very attached to the Corsican roots of the family. Still, one can't take away what happened in the trenches, the fraternity forged there between soldiers from all the Empire.

Certainly not. The regionalism in TTL is a reaction to the Red Twenty, in which the right wing has taken up support of the "purer" regional cultures over what it sees as the degraded urban society, but the solidarity created by the Great War and political struggles, as well as the leveling effect of mass media, is still there. Very few people speak only Breton or Occitan at this point; everyone learns French in school and hears it on the television. And metropolitan France isn't going anywhere: the French empire might shed some African territories that were relative latecomers and ambivalent about being part of the French project, but no one at all is advocating independence for Brittany - the more so since most of the regionalists are also right-wing French patriots.

The issue with France and French is that the country's jacobine attitude towards regionalism will be there, and as the balance of power shifts to Parliament, no matter how 'tolerant' Marianne might be, the liberals and conservatives (and probably the socialists too) will not be looking forward to any sort of decentralisation or toleration of minority languages.

Marianne is a Jacobin herself, albeit a moderate one (yes, I did just type the phrase "moderate Jacobin") who thinks of French identity mainly in political terms. She has no problem with regional languages or cultural preservation, as long as everyone learns French too, but she, and nearly all the French political spectrum, would draw the line at political decentralization of the state. There will most likely be a few administrative and cultural compromises, but as I said above, France will be one of the countries ITTL that buys into post-Westphalianism the least.

Wow, that's a lot of middle-income countries on that map!

Well, there surely are more middle-income countries in this Africa than in our Africa - and it's 1955 :eek: :)

I do enjoy how Africa is considerably better off then OTL :D And a lot better developed democratically, etc. Love the differing levels of relations France has with Africa.

Keep in mind that the countries shown as middle-income on the map are middle-income by 1955 world standards. And Africa is still underdeveloped compared to Europe or North America: I believe (although I'm too lazy to check) that lower middle income countries are both the median and the mode, and the only country that exceeds the high middle income category is the Kingdom of the Arabs with its low population and huge oil reserves.

Perhaps I missed it, but has Zanzibar's empire completely collapsed into independent states (doubtful given the concept of sovereignty and states ITTL)...or is this an update to come? And Algeria is still French in someway shape or form...

The breakup of Zanzibar's northern and western provinces happened here and here, although it was building for a long time.

And "in some way, shape or form" is a key phrase - you'll notice that Algeria isn't an integral French province any more. The detail will be in the next update, but the existence of a proportionally Puerto Rican-size Algerian diaspora in metropolitan France is a major factor, and the vote will be a close one.
 
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