Malê Rising

Right, Korea might be a potential Japan/Russia battleground but it could also be a place for Napoleon III to muck around with due to the executions of missionaries. If China is stronger ITTL they'll want to protect Korea, especially if it's in the hands of conservatives but China probably won't be strong enough to do that. Christianity exists in Korea at this time but is really small, it doesn't start putting in roots until the Japanese occupation and then really explodes after the Korean War (but Pyeongyang is probably the most Protestant city in Asia before the partition).

I doubt Napoleon III will have any more success there than he did in OTL. He might send out a punitive expedition to chastise Korea for executing the missionaries, but given that the French Empire will already be fully committed in Latin America, Africa and Indochina, he won't be able to send enough force to conquer the country. Most likely, the French troops will retreat before superior Korean forces, go home and declare victory, as the OTL expedition did.

One intriguing possibility, if Korea falls into the Russian sphere for a while, is that Orthodox missionaries might step into the void left by the collapse of Franco-Catholic influence, and that the Korean Orthodox Church might become the primary Christian denomination in at least part of Korea. Then, if Japan takes over after Russia, Orthodox Christianity might become a focus of resistance against the Japanese, and Donghak/Cheondoism might syncretize with Christianity somewhat earlier than OTL as a means of making the church more indigenous. This could lead, down the line, to a nationalist movement which is more religious-based, resulting in Orthodox-Cheondoism rather than Communism getting the upper hand when (if?) Korea wins back its independence. Or, alternatively, the same thing might happen if Japan and Russia are on the same side of the *Great War and partition Korea between them, with a syncretic indigenous religion becoming a base for resistance to both. And maybe a few Abacarist doctrines could creep in there from visiting Muslim troops, although I agree that the influence would be minimal and that the primary components would be Christianity, Buddhism, shamanism and a bit of agrarian socialism.

(Anyway, the story was that bad, was it? Back to West Africa on Sunday: *Nigeria first, and French West Africa after that.)
 
(Anyway, the story was that bad, was it? Back to West Africa on Sunday: *Nigeria first, and French West Africa after that.)

I enjoyed it; I just didn't have much to say about it. :eek: Alternate literary traditions are a fascinating idea, and it's the little details like this that make a timeline great.
 
I enjoyed it; I just didn't have much to say about it. :eek: Alternate literary traditions are a fascinating idea, and it's the little details like this that make a timeline great.

Thanks for indulging my childish desire for affirmation. :eek:

I like writing the stories, and I find that they help me get into the heads of the ATL's people. They also make me focus on cultural details I might otherwise gloss over - for instance, the uneasy relationship between rural African-American culture and a state government that wants to institutionalize it, and the fact that this timeline's Gullah folktales (some with an Islamic cast) will be presented in mostly-standard English for serious audiences rather than as Uncle Remus-style dialect fables. That would almost have to have knock-on effects for Southern literature in general - if Joel Chandler Harris doesn't exist or is a minor writer, then would this timeline have an equivalent of Faulkner? But I digress.
 
As far as stories go, I tend to get very much put off by dialogues in which an important guy chats with his various advisers (probably from reading too many bad Europa Universalis AARs) but I'm liking the little snippets of story in this time line a lot. I liked the aside about authenticity versus reaching a broader audience wrt dialect use.
 
And now, back to the mother continent

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Emeka Ojukwu, The Missionary Revolution and the Remaking of the Igbo (Anambra Univ. Press 1982)

… The Igbo and the delta peoples were spared the three-cornered religious struggle that took place among the Yoruba. There was a considerable geographic and cultural separation between them and the Muslim polities to the north; they had little exposure to Islam in precolonial times, and sporadic visits by Malê traders did little to change that. For them, the battle between religions during the last half of the nineteenth century was a straightforward one: Christian monotheism against Odinala animism, the new against the old, the growing influence of Europe against the traditional elites.

On the other hand, a two-sided struggle proved more than enough.

The Igbo, unlike the Yoruba, had not experienced the fall of a powerful empire. The saying was, and still is, Igbo enwe eze – “the Igbo have no king.” All the same, the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries were a devastating time – ironically, because of both the Atlantic slave trade and its suppression. Many Igbo were kidnapped into slavery, and their village societies were hard hit by the endemic warfare associated with the trade. At the same time, other Igbo polities, including the powerful Aro Confederacy, had prospered as middlemen, becoming wealthy from traffic in palm oil and slaves; the end of the slave trade weakened them both economically and militarily, and left their victims eager for revenge. By 1850, the combination of a power vacuum, traditional rivalries and new-minted hatreds had cast Igboland into civil war.

The coming of Christianity added a new dimension to the conflict. Missionaries operating under the British aegis had already made major inroads into the delta kingdoms of Bonny and Calabar, which were British protectorates in all but name. They had already begun to expand their efforts into Igboland by the time the century reached its halfway point, establishing the first Igbo-language press and distributing Bibles and religious tracts throughout the hinterland. But what the missionaries understood as a battle for souls, the Igbo saw in terms of power. In a culture that was undergoing wrenching change and in which accepted verities no longer made sense, a new religion represented a chance for the powerless to reshape their society, and many seized that chance. And, just as might be expected, many of the established power-wielders resisted.

The fact that the choice between religions was all-or-nothing added intensity to the struggle. The missionaries had no tolerance for folk religion; to them, traditional practices represented heathen backwardness to be extirpated root and branch. In time there would be a revival of many folkways, and a synthesis of Chukwu and Christ, as the missionaries’ influence waned and colonial-era divisions became less acute, but in the nineteenth century, it was one or the other.

In some ways, this too advantaged the powerless; for instance, where the missionaries gained control, they banned the killing of twins and decreed that members of the osu outcast class were to be treated as equals. Indeed, this often resulted in a temporary inversion of the social order as the osu, who were first to accept Christianity, became deacons in the church, although lingering caste prejudices sometimes caused them to lose this position once their better-placed neighbors adopted the faith.

By the same token, however, the power of the traditional priesthood was totally broken in any place where Christianity triumphed; there could be no compromise, no blending of the old faith and the new. Ironically, this would be what made Christianity attractive to chieftains as well as commoners: if there was bad blood between a ruler and the local priesthood – as there often was – then the Christian faith was a powerful weapon on the ruler’s side. By the 1860s, Igboland was a patchwork of warring mini-states operating under the principle of cuius regio, eius religio: where the ruler was Christian, the missionaries and deacons held sway and traditional folkways were driven underground; where the chief held to the Odinala faith, the missionaries and their converts were the ones who were persecuted.

All else being equal, the battle might have been an even one, but all else was not equal; instead, both the village-states which accepted Christianity and those that resisted it acted as wedges for British influence. To the Christian rulers, Britain offered protection from their neighbors; those willing to cede control over their foreign relations and grant preferential status to British merchants, as many of the coastal peoples had done, were brought under the umbrella of the pax Britannica. As for the non-Christians, their attacks on missionaries and Christianized villages provided a convenient pretext for punitive expeditions, several of which were mounted between 1863 and 1872. As yet, Britain had no plans to conquer the interior – that design would come later – but British power gave the missionaries and their allies a decisive edge in the cultural war.

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Jaja of Opobo

With British political influence came commercial influence, and British merchants were not the only ones to profit; along with them came the remarkable Jaja of Opobo, the Merchant Prince of Bonny. An Igbo himself by birth, Jaja – whose full name was Jubo Jubogha – was sold as a slave to an Ijaw merchant in the Niger Delta at the age of twelve. He bought himself out of slavery while still a youth, and became successively the head of the Anna Pepple trading house, the leader of the breakaway Opobo city-state, and finally King of Bonny, which Opobo now dominated. By this time he had become fabulously rich on the palm-oil trade, chartering British ships to transport his goods directly to Liverpool, and through this traffic, he became acquainted with several influential British importers.

Jaja was convinced that Britain represented the new order and, in 1865, he became a Christian and formed a trading company that included several British partners. Through his kinship connections to the Igbo, he was able to piggyback on the growing British-missionary presence in the interior and secure monopolies on the palm-oil production of many villages. In some cases, the Opobo Palm-Oil Company bought the palm plantations outright and invited their former Igbo owners to set up as merchants in Bonny; it would be these men who began to build the reputation of the Igbo as a mercantile people second only to the Malê in the Niger region.

For a time, the palm-oil business made Opobo one of the wealthiest cities in Africa, with its people becoming avid consumers of imported goods and its king cultivated by European and African alike. Indeed, when Jaja visited London in 1871, he became the first African ruler to make a state visit to Britain, and the first to be received at Buckingham Palace, although the courtiers tactfully failed to inform him that his reception was very different from what would have been given to a European monarch. But many British merchants chafed at having to work through an African partner and, with the aid of like-minded men in the Foreign Office and the local consulate, schemed to muscle Jaja aside and take full possession of the lower Niger. The maturation of this plan, in which both the spiritual and temporal aspects of British influence would be recruited as partners, would have profound consequences not merely for the delta kingdoms but for Igboland as well…


*******

Ayo Aderemi, “Islam, Colonialism and Nationalism in Yorubaland,” African History Quarterly 58: 270-94 (Summer 2004)

… When people speak of Yoruba Islam, they are almost certainly referring to the folk Islam that developed during the later nineteenth century through exposure to Malê traders and teachers. If so, they are being incomplete. The northernmost Yoruba towns, particularly Ilorin, had been Islamic for centuries, and their version of the faith was relatively orthodox. And even in the southern cities where Islam did not begin to penetrate until the 1850s, the educated classes – and particularly the educated women, who learned from the jaji teaching corps – were also largely conventional in their belief. It was not until the twentieth century, as more Yoruba kings and nobles followed their people into Islam, that a significant number of upper-class Yoruba would adopt folk Islam as a means of maintaining the continuity of dynastic customs. But nevertheless, the popular perception of Yoruba Islam has a great deal of truth to it, as the folk version of the faith is the one that the great majority of Muslim Yoruba follow, and the one that has ultimately had the most influence on Yoruba culture.

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Egungun masquerade in Ile-Ife

What, exactly, is meant by “folk Islam?” By its nature, folk religion cannot be precisely defined, as practices and beliefs may vary from town to town and family to family. In general, however, the peasant Islam of the Yoruba centers around a number of commonalities:

  • The veneration of saints. The Sufi tradition of sainthood became a convenient method for the Yoruba to continue to honor their orishas, or traditional gods. With the exception of the creator-deities Olorun and Oludumare, which the Yoruba deem to be the hundredth and hundred-and-first names of God Himself, the orishas, and many ancestral Yoruba heroes, have been repackaged as Islamic teachers and miracle-workers. This reimagining dovetails with the pre-existing legend that the hero-god Oduduwa, founder of the Yoruba spiritual capital at Ile-Ife, was originally from Mecca. During the days of the Oyo Empire, legend held that Oduduwa fled Mecca to escape from Islam and find a land where he could worship the old gods in peace, but by 1870, he had been recast as a companion and guide of the Prophet who was forced into exile by evil counselors.
It isn’t only the gods and legendary heroes who have become saints; in keeping with lingering animist traditions, great leaders and teachers are also venerated. Although outright ancestor-worship is prohibited among Muslims, sainthood provides a compromise, and also allows the ancestors to be viewed as intercessors. Curiously, one of the first such heroes elevated to sainthood was not a Yoruba but Paulo Abacar, the Malê Liberator. The Yoruba began celebrating a day in Abacar’s honor within two decades after his death, which would have displeased the man greatly but which was no doubt to be expected given the identification of Yoruba Islam with the aspirations of the lower social classes.
  • The egungun masquerade. In traditional Yoruba belief, the egungun is the collective spirit of the dead, and is honored with an annual ceremony in which costumed and masked performers invoke the ancestral spirits. The Yoruba Muslims have continued this practice, albeit with a different emphasis. Rather than being possessed by the egungun and carrying messages from the dead to the living, the performers are seen as going into a divine trance and bearing words of Islamic guidance. During the nineteenth century, the messages brought by the masqueraders were often subversive of established authority; they challenged slavery and social inequality, and also warned against both the remnants of the old faith and the influence of Christian missionaries. The performers would re-enact and abjure the immoral deeds of commoner and ruler alike, but would usually focus their most biting satires on the rulers, functioning as social critics who the king didn’t dare to punish. Sometimes – particularly in faction-ridden courts – nobles might pay the mimes to satirize the behavior of opposing factions and laud their own, but more often, the performers functioned as a voice of the people and of the religious leadership.
By the 1870s, the egungun ceremony had begun to take on a secondary meaning. In keeping with Sufi mystical notions of death as another birth, the masquerade took on some aspects of a life-cycle ritual, with the egungun symbolizing the rebirth of the community in a more spiritually advanced state. This combined with the social-criticism function of the ritual, in that the evil practices condemned by the mimes were seen as obstacles to this rebirth. Among a few believers, death and the dead came to be seen as agents of spiritual cleansing, leading to a veneration of death itself similar to the Mexican cult of Santa Muerte, although this extreme is very much a minority position.
  • Music. For the Yoruba, ritual must be physical as well as spiritual; music is a central feature of nearly every Yoruba ceremony, and it has filtered into both Islamic festival and daily worship. Ceremonies typically feature drums – of which the Yoruba have several kinds, both rhythmic and melodic – as well as shaken cowrie shells and the agogo double-bell. Choral singing and responsive chants also figure prominently in Yoruba prayer, and dance of the dervish variety is both a part of communal ritual and an individual meditative device. A minority of more conservative Muslims, who disapprove of dancing in public life, nevertheless distinguish between social dancing and religious dancing, characterizing the latter as permissible and even obligatory.

  • Folk magic. This is one of the most controversial “common threads” of Yoruba folk Islam, because most Muslims don’t consciously practice it; in fact, the majority, even in the nineteenth century, regarded sorcery as un-Islamic. The open practice of charms and spells that characterizes the Brazilian candomble and rural Malê folk religion has no place among the Yoruba, whose Islamization was not diluted through the filter of slavery. Nevertheless, elements of folk magic survive as part of certain rituals and prayers: for instance, some ceremonies feature stylized dolls that represent evil counsel and are ritually abjured, and the words of some ritual invocations were once spells to control weather, prevent sickness or ward off evil.

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Yoruba double-bell

It can easily be seen that the folk Islam of the Yoruba contains a great deal of continuity from pre-Islamic culture, both in mythology and ritual, and also provides an outlet for social criticism. These are no doubt among the reasons why the Yoruba took to Islam so easily. In fact, much of the resistance to Islam during the 1850s through 1880s – with the exception, of course, of the regions near the coast where Christian missionaries had established a firm presence before the arrival of Islamic teachers – was political rather than religious. Islam was identified with Ilorin and the Malê, as well as political liberalism, while Christianity was identified with Europe. Those who wished to court Britain or Ilorin adopted the requisite faith; those who opposed British or Malê influence would favor the other religion – or, if they opposed both Ilorin and Britain, they would hold steadfastly to the old gods and oppose any syncretization.

As with the Igbo, religious differences added fuel to warfare between cities, and religion also became a marker of political factions within cities as they played out in the royal courts and the ogboni secret societies. At the beginning, a majority of Yoruba kings and nobles became Christian, because the missionaries were more willing to support their authoritarian rule and because British diplomacy was a valuable tool in both internal and foreign intrigues. Along the coast, where a majority of commoners were also Christian, this proved a comfortable arrangement. Further inland, however, the common population became increasingly Islamized with time, and the ogboni societies, which were traditionally viewed as the voice of the wisest commoners and were both a political and religious balance to the royal court, also fell more and more under Muslim influence. In some cities, the aristocracy responded by pushing Islam as far to the political margins as they could, beginning a dangerous tug-of-war between rulers and ruled, but in others, the nobles themselves started to become more accepting of Islam.

The first Yoruba king to become Muslim did so in 1868, and he was a major king indeed: the Ooni of Ife, a direct descendant of Oduduwa and the traditional Yoruba spiritual leader. His decision to adopt Islam was as much about politics as conviction, but it represented a major step toward Islam becoming the predominant religion of the Yoruba nation…


*******

Ahmadu Odubogun, Faith and Ferment: The Sahel and Sudan in the Nineteenth Century (Ibadan Univ. Press 2005)


… When Usman Abacar returned to Ilorin in early 1866, after an absence of eleven and a half years, he found the Abacarists largely out of power. They weren’t completely shut out – nobody would have dreamed of taking the education ministry away from the Nana Asma’u, and no one could imagine the treasury without João Silva’s steady hand – but they had become a marginal faction in a republic largely ruled by the industrialists, the rich merchants and the imamate.

This was more a balance of forces than a coalition, given that the imams and the textile barons had very different views on social and economic issues. The religious leadership often joined with the remaining Abacarists, and the few workers’ and craftsmen’s representatives on the council, to uphold progressive labor legislation, while the businessmen were generally able to overrule the imamate on matters of sumptuary law and free trade. The governing council was at least somewhat more representative than the authoritarian regime which had taken hold in the Sokoto Emirate to the north, and Ilorin had thus far avoided the labor unrest and social upheaval which had taken place to the north. But things were drifting in that direction, and even more, it seemed that the republic was drifting without a rudder in a rapidly changing regional environment.

Many Abacarists hoped that Usman would be the one to change that. To his chagrin, his entry into Ilorin turned into a virtual coronation, with thousands of Malê and other urban workers cheering his progress through the streets. The Abacarist faction urged him to lead the party in the election scheduled for a year ahead, and promised that, if they won, they would create the new office of President of the Republic and nominate him to fill it.

Usman refused to become either party leader or uncrowned king. It offended him that anyone would nominate him to the highest office by right of birth, and he felt that as a twenty-four-year-old whose greatest responsibility thus far had been a junior military command, he was unfit for such power. At the same time, he did not spurn the party entirely, as he might have done at a younger age. His time in Britain and India had given him a firm idea of what Ilorin should be and what it needed to do to navigate through treacherous political waters, and he had absorbed his father’s favorite maxim that knowledge without action is arrogance. If none of Ilorin’s present rulers saw the path forward, it was his responsibility to help them do so.

Thus, although he rejected the leadership of the Abacarists for the time being, he agreed to stand in the elections as a junior candidate and to campaign for other party standard-bearers. When he was elected - and when family loyalty brought enough other liberals with him to wield significant influence in the council - he accepted a colonelcy in the army and a ministry without portfolio. And he was far more outspoken, both in the government and in public speeches, than a backbencher would normally be, arguing in favor of universal suffrage, a return to the Rights of Man, a comprehensive labor code, an outward-looking foreign policy, and negotiating with Britain while that could still be done from a position of relative strength. Although Usman still denied - and would deny to the end of his life - that he was a prince, he had come somewhat to terms with the fact that many of Ilorin’s people thought of him as one, and was willing, within limits, to use the political leverage that gave him.

He had also come to terms with the fact that his eventual marriage would have political consequences, and as both his mother and Nana Asma’u reminded him, it was past time to marry. An opportunity presented itself in 1868, when the Ooni of Ife sought an alliance with Ilorin against a coalition of land-hungry neighbors. To seal the pact, he publicly adopted Islam and offered his daughter Adeseye in marriage to what he, and many in Ilorin, viewed as the republic’s first family. Adeseye, a young woman of twenty-one, had received a liberal education and had learned practical politics at her father’s court; Usman was willing, and at the strong urging of his mother, accepted the match. Another year was spent in negotiating terms, but in early 1870, the Ooni’s daughter arrived in Ilorin for the wedding. The ceremony was marked by the sort of panoply normally reserved for royalty - another thing which Usman disliked but was ultimately forced to accept.

The couple would have little time to enjoy wedded bliss before two momentous events, both occurring in 1872, shook the lower Niger. The first of these took place far to the north in London, where a group of British traders, acting largely behind the scenes, secured a charter for the Royal Niger Company. The company’s purpose was ostensibly to regularize the palm-oil trade, but behind this benign façade, its founders’ goal was to subjugate the delta kingdoms and Igboland and possibly - if circumstances permitted - to push on from there.

The second event happened much closer to home, with the death of Lawalu bin Adama, the canny Emir of Adamawa. Under Lawalu’s rule, Adamawa had benefited more than anyone, even the Malê themselves, from the advent of Abacarism. In 1840, Adamawa had been a province of the Sokoto Caliphate; now, it was the largest and most powerful state in the eastern Sahel, and its de facto dominance of the Atikuwa buffer state gave it access to industrial products without having to risk the unrest that came from industrializing the homeland. All this had been accomplished through Lawalu’s strategy of military modernization, careful diplomacy, respectful relations with his neighbors, and expansion only when the moment was right. And all this would change now that his brother Sanda bin Adama, a man with a far more aggressive bent, sat on the throne…
 
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As far as stories go, I tend to get very much put off by dialogues in which an important guy chats with his various advisers (probably from reading too many bad Europa Universalis AARs) but I'm liking the little snippets of story in this time line a lot. I liked the aside about authenticity versus reaching a broader audience wrt dialect use.

I don't care for that kind of story either - I prefer to use the history-book updates to deal with Important People doing Important Things, and to use the story updates to concentrate on formative moments. And of course, the literary updates don't have anything to do with the main story at all, except that their "authors" are shaped by the changes taking place in the world.

Anyway, I managed to finish the *Nigeria update today while helping my wife man a booth at a craft fair. What do you think of the idea of an Orthodox-Cheondoist Korea?
 
Anyway, I managed to finish the *Nigeria update today while helping my wife man a booth at a craft fair. What do you think of the idea of an Orthodox-Cheondoist Korea?

And Nigeria looks to be going interesting places, not all of them pleasant... Nice cliffhanger there.

For the Orthodox-Cheondoist Korea that'll take some work but I think it's doable. However, right now the Orthodox church in Korea seems to have "several hundred" members while Cheondoism is fairly moribund these days (my Korean wife doesn't even know what it is). Let's see how we can change that. For the purposes of this I'm assuming minimal butterflies since some of the main actors were born about 10 years after Male Rising's POD, but I'm assuming that it takes some time before any but the most minor butterflies start hitting Korea. This is my own spit balling about how to get that religious situation, it probably conflicts with some of what you're planning for Asia and the world, but I hope that you'll be able to use at least a piece or two of it...

Sorry for this being so very very long, especially since it's so tangential to this TL but had some ideas in my head and they kept on rolling...

Good general background information about Korea in this time: http://unkcs.org/wordpress/2012/05/07/last-royals-king-kojong-queen-myeongseong-sunjong/

Queen Min (or Queen Myeongseong), being rather badass, outmaneuvered her father in-law and got control of the country at age 22 (1873). With her and her family making a lot of the real decisions (and her husband liking his high tech toys) there's gradual but real modernization, a military unit is formed that doesn't have crappy old muzzle loaded muskets and Korea takes a pro-Chinese stance in foreign politics. In 1882 Queen Min's father in-law (Yi Ha-eung who we talked about before) tries to take back power but is put down by Chinese forces in Korea and carted off to China by their commander Yuan Shikai (yes, that Yuan Shikai). During this time the Japanese legation gets sacked. The Japanese are not pleased.

Then in 1884 a more radical liberal faction who is not pleased with Queen Min's pro-Chinese politics stages a coup with the help of the guards at the Japanese legation (who were allowed in in fairly large numbers after what happened in 1882). IOTL, Queen Min calls for help from Yuan Shikai again and he puts down the coup and the Japanese legation gets burned down and 40 Japanese get killed. The Japanese are not happy.

Let's throw some butterflies at the situation and say that perhaps the Japanese ambassador gets killed and the anti-Japanese rioting that happened at this time IOTL gets a bit bloodier. Now the Japanese are very very very not happy. Or perhaps the coup is more successful than IOTL and takes Seoul and calls for Japanese aid.

Then the Japanese army lands in Korea. Perhaps the Chinese back down, allow the coup leader Kim Okgyun (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Okgyun) to be Prime Minister and the Chinese forces to leave in return for some face saving concessions like Korea still being officially a Chinese vassal. Or perhaps the Sino-Japanese War starts early and the Japanese win (this early the Japanese army would be weaker, but the Chinese are in pretty bad shape too just having lost a war with France).

So now you have a liberal regime King Kojong and Queen Min as puppets but the regime is dependent on Japan and is increasingly a thin glove over the Japanese fist. During this time something like the Gabo Reforms ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabo_Reform very Meiji-inspired) hit. These might be less conciliatory to the peasants than the reforms IOTL since they wouldn't be reacting to the Donghak rebellion (which hasn't happened yet).

Queen Min isn't happy about this and, seeing that China isn't much help starts conspiring with Russian agents (and perhaps getting the first Orthodox priests into the country?) to get the Japanese out of Korea and herself back in charge of the country (as much as possible). She did something a lot like this IOTL although the circumstances were a bit different.

Then everything comes to a head at once:
1.*WW I is about to start with Russia and Japan on opposite sides.
2.The Japanese are sick and tired of Queen Min and decide to deal with her, perhaps as they did IOTL (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_Min#Eulmi_Incident_and_assassination). IOTL King Kojong then holds up in the Russian legation. Perhaps the details happen differently but something still goes down to provide a spark to rebellion.
3. More Anti-Japanese rioting and anti-Japanese militias get formed.
4. *Donghak Rebellion kicks off fueled by angry peasants, merging with the anti-Japanese militias. Due to the Japanese having moved on Korea earlier than IOTL, the *Donghak Rebellion is even more anti-Japanese and less anti-European (more Japanese economic involvement in Korea from 1885-9? less Western business penetration) and less anti-Christian. Any landlord that the peasants don't like gets branded as pro-Japanese and the peasants perhaps aren't very happy about the new more efficient tax collection system that the Japanese would've put in place.
5. *WW I starts and the Russian army marches on Korea.

The Korean rebels (which would have a big *Donghak element but would have other bunches as well) aren't much of a match for the Japanese army (muzzle loading muskets are a bit out of date...) but they create all kinds of logistical headaches as the Japanese try to come to grip with the Russian army.

If the Russians win: Korean "independent" monarchy established with Russian support and using Russia for a model (gradual reform, economic growth but keeping the king in charge). Russians win some popularity, there's a high profile conversion or two to Orthodoxy and Orthodox conversions (which start with a trickle during the war) start to speed up. The *Donghak rebels get to cast themselves as patriots rather than rebels against the monarchy (as they were IOTL) and press for land reform. A *Bolshevik Revolution would be helpful here, as it keeps the Tsar from outliving his welcome and provides a nice bit of White Russian refugees (perhaps including priests?) to Korea.

If the Russians lose: lots of Korean exiles to Pacific Russia (if that still exists). There was a well-established Korean community there (until Stalin deported it to Khazakstan) so there'd be something to build on. Perhaps the Russians make more Siberian land available to Korean than IOTL. If the Qing falls and the post-Qing Manchu land rush happens as well (in which a lot of Koreans went north into Manchuria to grab farm land and get away from the Japanese) you'll have a pretty big northern Korean diaspora which would be the natural place to incubate a Orthodox/Cheondoist mix since anyone Cheondoist or pro-Russian would be up north running away from the Japanese and friendly with each other.

So hitting religions:
-Orthodox/Cheondoist mix: Cheondoist is monotheist so there's some stuff to work in. Pretty proto-socialist/humanistic for more conservative Orthodox, but I'm sure there's some fringe types in Siberia they could work with. The person you want here is Kim Gu (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Gu) who was a Donghak leader and later very important among the Korean independence movement in exile (he's been a bit overly romanticized in Korea, but was still a good guy). If he converts to Orthodoxy (perhaps liking the autocephalous organization structure) he'd be a good glue between the two.

-Catholicism/Protestantism: with the Japanese taking over earlier they don't have much of a chance to get their foot in the door which they did historically in the period from when Korea starts to modernize to when Japan takes over completely. Without having some organization and (especially for the Protestants) schools set up, they don't have much of an infrastructure to work with. Kaiphranos' ancestors and others like them don't get a chance to get set up as well in Korea before the Japanese boot comes down.

-Buddhism: Korean monks traditionally don't marry, Japanese monks traditionally do. When the Japanese took over they allowed Korean monks to marry. After independence the celibate monks saw the married monks as illegitimate and tried to take over any temples controlled by married monks (using tactics like hiring gangsters to beat them up). The celibate monks had the edge but this conflict lasted long enough to really weaken Korean Buddhism just when Christianity was starting to take off. If you make this even more vitriolic or make the Japanese more entangled with Korean Buddhism, Korean Buddhism is less of a competitor.

How to make Orthodoxy syncretize into Korea:
-Stuff with mountains: Korean traditional spirituality is really bound up with mountains (to the extent that some Christians won't go hiking because mountains are too heathen), get some mountaintop martyrs that can get syncretized with Korean mountain spirits (http://daleskoreantempleadventures.blogspot.com/2011/12/san-shin-mountain-god.html).
-One big stumbling block for Korean Christians is what to do with the Jeasa ancestral rites (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesa). They're a big deal in Korea and Christians are traditionally been very leery of them. These days most people only do it on the anniversary of very near ancestors deaths and two a year on major holidays but it was done a lot more in the old days and is still damn important (some protestants do do it and say it's only secular and traditional but a lot still don't). One idea I had was to make it work a bit like Mormon posthumous baptisms "do this ritual and your ancestors who are wandering the world as ghosts and/or in hell can go to heaven since you'll use the power of Jesus to make it so, after all Jesus got out of hell, he can get other people out of hell too." This fits in a bit with Korean shamanism since one of the shaman's jobs was to make the ghosts of ancestors go away (having ghosts hanging around makes you sick even if the ghosts mean well). However, this would mean a pretty decisive break from orthodox Christianity, but it could go over well among some people in Korea (and China too perhaps).
 
Could there be just Orthodox Korea (or at least, a large section of the populace that worships full Orthodoxy in the north, with more syncretism the farther one gets from Russia)?
 
Could there be just Orthodox Korea (or at least, a large section of the populace that worships full Orthodoxy in the north, with more syncretism the farther one gets from Russia)?

Yeah, adding Cheondoism in makes it much harder since usually when you get syncretism it's a new faith (either new entirely or new in the country in question) mixing in with established folk beliefs, but this is two faiths that are both new to Korea (although Cheondoism claims a strong connection with pre-Buddhist Korean practices that's a lot like Neo-Pagans claiming to be just like pre-Roman druids) which makes them harder to mix. It depends on how things work out but the best bet would be to use the Sabbatean movement as a model. Leadership of a new movement gets beat down hard and mass converts. Perhaps driving a wedge between Cheondoism and Buddhist would help.
 
Could there be just Orthodox Korea (or at least, a large section of the populace that worships full Orthodoxy in the north, with more syncretism the farther one gets from Russia)?

Yeah, adding Cheondoism in makes it much harder since usually when you get syncretism it's a new faith (either new entirely or new in the country in question) mixing in with established folk beliefs, but this is two faiths that are both new to Korea (although Cheondoism claims a strong connection with pre-Buddhist Korean practices that's a lot like Neo-Pagans claiming to be just like pre-Roman druids) which makes them harder to mix. It depends on how things work out but the best bet would be to use the Sabbatean movement as a model. Leadership of a new movement gets beat down hard and mass converts. Perhaps driving a wedge between Cheondoism and Buddhist would help.

Well, Cheondoism in OTL did have Christian influences, and had folk roots (even if relatively recent ones) in Donghak. And it could conceivably be possible to drive a wedge between Cheondoism and Buddhism if the Buddhists become identified with Japanese rule and/or the pro-Japanese faction at court. If, as you suggest, Kim Gu or an equivalent Donghak leader admires Orthodoxy and his creed becomes mixed in with the nationalist movement, I can see an Orthdox-influenced Cheondoism developing.

Thinking about it further, though, it does make sense for there to be both a straight-up Orthodox population, whose beliefs would be conventionally Christian, and a *Cheondoist religion which is influenced by Orthodoxy. Orthodox Christianity itself is fairly immune to syncretism, even in places where you'd expect it (such as among the Aleuts), and if Russia were hegemonic for any length of time, the missionaries would be able to set up structures to enforce church doctrine. The autocephalous nature of Orthodoxy would mean that the church would soon be run by Koreans and use Korean as a liturgical language, but it wouldn't syncretize a great deal, and there might be some bad blood between the strictly Orthodox Koreans and the Orthodox-Cheondoists.

This isn't to say that Orthodoxy couldn't take Korean forms. Mountains would be easy enough - the missionaries might set up monasteries or churches on mountaintops in order to co-opt pre-existing holy places, and if one of these monasteries is destroyed during a war with Japan, it could become a place of martyrdom and privilege. And Jeasa could be transformed from explicit ancestor-worship into a memorial ritual where the living prayed for their ancestors' souls (or, alternatively, asked God to bless them with their ancestors' wisdom and good qualities), with the addition of Christian prayers to make clear which God is being invoked.

Anyway, I think I'll adopt your historical suggestions up to the Great War, and what happens afterward will depend on whether the Russians win or lose (I'm currently leaning toward having them lose in Europe but win on points in Asia, although that could change). If Russia does win, then would the shorter period of Japanese dominance, combined with the fact that Korea never experiences full-on Japanese colonialism, mean that there would continue to be a pro-Japanese faction at court, possibly including those who are impatient with the pace of reform? If so, then religion may end up becoming a political marker, which again would induce certain sectors of society to become Orthodox, and others Cheondoist.

Sad to see Usman marry for politics, though its not surprising.

It was inevitable, I think - he's a political figure whether or not he wants to be, and regional politics at this time is still somewhat dynastic, so his marriage would be a political event. His family, and the Abacarist faction as a whole, wouldn't let him miss a chance to forge an alliance with a powerful Yoruba ruler, especially if that ruler adopted Abacarist Islam into the bargain.

Usman's father also married for politics, though, and it turned out to be more. This will be the case for him as well.
 
This isn't to say that Orthodoxy couldn't take Korean forms. Mountains would be easy enough - the missionaries might set up monasteries or churches on mountaintops in order to co-opt pre-existing holy places, and if one of these monasteries is destroyed during a war with Japan, it could become a place of martyrdom and privilege. And Jeasa could be transformed from explicit ancestor-worship into a memorial ritual where the living prayed for their ancestors' souls (or, alternatively, asked God to bless them with their ancestors' wisdom and good qualities), with the addition of Christian prayers to make clear which God is being invoked.
There's certainly elements in Russian orthodoxy that can be used as a handle for ancestor worship - e.g. masses for the deceased or the Russian custom of celebrating Easter at the graves of deceased relatives. And while officially tolerating syncretistic elements is one thing, the Orthodox church has a record of turning a blind eye to e.g. animist practices in Siberia - it would certainly fret much less about what its adherents do at home than fire-and-brimstone Protestants ;-) .
OTOH, I'm not sure that Orthodoxy would become a mass religion even if Korea becomes a Russian dependency - historically, Orthodoxy wasn't very succesful in areas of the Russian Empire where there was a strong previously established religion (Islam in parts of the Caucasus and in Central Asia, Protestantism and Catholicism in the Baltics, Buddhism among e.g. the Kalmyks); the spread of Orthodoxy in those areas was mostly due to the migration of Orthodox Russians (Ukrainians, Belorussians), not to missionary activity. While Orthodoxy was the legitimising religion of the autocracy, the policy of the Empire seems to have preferred not rocking the religious boat in the provinces to massively spreading Orthodoxy. In the normal course of things, I would expect some conversions for career reasons, but not a massive take-up of Orthodoxy - so you'd need some specific Korean reasons for a massive take-up. Part of the "pro-establishment" stance of the Empire is that they would not take very positively to a new religion, even more if it contained social revolutionary elements, so the Russian Empire would not be a natural ally of the *Cheondoist religion, no matter how many Orthodox elements it would incorporate. Again, there may be specific local reasons for Russia to support it - e.g., if its adherents are the door-openers to Korea or if the *Cheondoists would be a significant ally in the fight against Japan.
 
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There's certainly elements in Russian orthodoxy that can be used as a handle for ancestor worship - e.g. masses for the deceased or the Russian custom of celebrating Easter at the graves of deceased relatives. And while officially tolerating syncretistic elements is one thing, the Orthodox church has a record of turning a blind eye to e.g. animist practices in Siberia - it would certainly fret much less about what its adherents do at home than fire-and-brimstone Protestants ;-).

Interesting. I hadn't known about Siberian syncretism, and some of the folk-religious practices seem much like what the Koreans, who also have strong pre-Christian traditions, might do. It will also help that the Korean Orthodox Church will be autocephalous after the initial take-up period, and will be able to emphasize those parts of Orthodox doctrine and ritual which are most in keeping with Korean tradition as well as Christianizing the traditional Korean life-cycle ceremonies.

OTOH, I'm not sure that Orthodoxy would become a mass religion even if Korea becomes a Russian dependency - historically, Orthodoxy wasn't very succesful in areas of the Russian Empire where there was a strong previously established religion [...] In the normal course of things, I would expect some conversions for career reasons, but not a massive take-up of Orthodoxy - so you'd need some specific Korean reasons for a massive take-up.

This is exactly what I'm proposing - that Orthodox Christianity would spread for the same Korean reasons that Protestant Christianity did in OTL. Education would be one - the Orthodox missionaries would presumably establish schools as they did in Alaska - as would the common threads between Christian and Korean mythology and, most importantly, the leadership of Christians in the Korean nationalist movement. For the last of these, it may be necessary for Korea to revert to Japanese hegemony after a period of Russian domination, and for Orthodoxy to become a focus of resistance to Japan, but even if Korea stays on as a Russian client kingdom, an autocephalous Korean-run church might be a more independent and national-minded body than the puppet royal court.

Part of the "pro-establishment" stance of the Empire is that they would not take very positively to a new religion, even more if it contained social revolutionary elements, so the Russian Empire would not be a natural ally of the *Cheondoist religion, no matter how many Orthodox elements it would incorporate. Again, there may be specific local reasons for Russia to support it - e.g., if its adherents are the door-openers to Korea or if the *Cheondoists would be a significant ally in the fight against Japan.

No, I agree that Russia wouldn't support it, nor would the Korean monarchy. I'm envisioning Orthodoxy as the religion of the more "establishment" nationalists, and *Cheondoism as the religion of the revolutionary peasants who would be fighting against both foreign domination and the local aristocrat/landlord class. I expect that there will be intermittent persecution of the *Donghaks and *Cheondoists as there was in OTL, although there may also (again as OTL) be occasional patrons at court.

French West Africa and the Franco-Prussian war next, hopefully tomorrow evening.
 
May the Prussians win gloriously (and become the Second Reich). I tend to root against the French. Also, seeing as the Omani are spreading Islam- yay more Ibadi! There the cool third way of Islam (and much smaller than the Sunni or Shia). It's interesting to see them have a larger presence.
 
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yay more Ibadi! There the cool third way of Islam (and much smaller than the Sunni or Shia). It's interesting to see them have a larger presence.

While they're probably the third in terms of age, their are actually five different Branches of Islam; Ahmadiyya, Ibādiyya, Qur'aniyoon, Shīʿah and the Sunnī.
 
May the Prussians win gloriously (and become the Second Reich). I tend to root against the French. Also, seeing as the Omani are spreading Islam- yay more Ibadi! There the cool third way of Islam (and much smaller than the Sunni or Shia). It's interesting to see them have a larger presence.

While they're probably the third in terms of age, their are actually five different Branches of Islam; Ahmadiyya, Ibādiyya, Qur'aniyoon, Shīʿah and the Sunnī.

The Ibadis will be dominant in East Africa, albeit leavened with some Abacarism, Ottoman reformism, and a touch of quasi-Ahmadi prophetic revelation. Remember that it's Tippu Tip who will bring Islamic modernism to the Omani empire, and he isn't your grandmother's religious reformist.

Speaking of Ahmadis and Qur'aniyoon, BTW, both Mirza Ghulam Ahmad and Syed Ahmad Khan were born before the POD. Their careers won't be the same in this timeline, and I won't give too much away at this point, but both of them will be religious and political figures, and there will be some interesting things happening in India in the wake of the Great Famine. In this timeline, West Africa has absorbed some of the reformist energy that existed in OTL India, but the Indian Muslims will still have a role to play, and some of them will go in different directions from any of the other liberals thus far.
 
Thinking about it further, though, it does make sense for there to be both a straight-up Orthodox population, whose beliefs would be conventionally Christian, and a *Cheondoist religion which is influenced by Orthodoxy.
That would be MUCh easier to swing. Cheondoism seems to have picked up bits of Catholicism in its organizatin and whatnot. Basically it's a bit like a cross between your standard pesant revolt, Utopian Socialism and Neo-Paganism. Like Neo-Paganism it's in theory harking back to the old old religion, but there are so many holes in what they know in the old religion that they need to plug in other stuff or make shit up to fill in the gaps.

co-opt pre-existing holy places
Jiri-san and Baekdu-san (san = mountain) would be the eastiest two.

which again would induce certain sectors of society to become Orthodox, and others Cheondoist.
Ya, bit it'll probably have to come fairly slow, Protestantism sunk in roots earlier but it didn't really take off until after WW II.

Russian custom of celebrating Easter at the graves of deceased relatives
Koreans do that for big holidays...

Orthodoxy wasn't very succesful in areas of the Russian Empire where there was a strong previously established religion

Exactly, so what would be needed would to kick Buddhism down good and hard so that it's not established enough to hold off other religions. IOTL Buddhism was hurt by not having as much elite support as elsewhere in East Asia (the kings of the last dynasty tended to not to like it although the royal women often supported it) and then having a lot of folk religion as well that was only quasi-Buddhist (largely-female shamans that come from pre-Buddhist traditions that are a lot like Siberian animism but with lots and lots of Buddhist/Taoist/Confucian influence over the years). Then during the Japanese occupation some Buddhist monks married and there was a very damaging schism over monk marriage after WW II (with a lot of internal coups in which unmarried monks kicked out married abbots). The more you weaken Buddhism the more space you leave open for other religions, at least for the window until more secular notions sink in (like in Japan).

but even if Korea stays on as a Russian client kingdom, an autocephalous Korean-run church might be a more independent and national-minded body than the puppet royal court.
So more the educated middle classes? Protestantism sunk in among the educated urban classes. It's just that until recently Korea didn't really have much of an educated urban class, but when one developed Protestantism spread very quickly. Catholicism tends to be spread around more evenly, Buddhism tends to be more rural, older and poorer. The current breakdown is to use ballpark figures:
15-20%ish Protestant
10ish Catholic
20-25%ish at least somewhat practicing Buddhist
25%ish non-religious
20-25%ish non-practicing Buddhist/nominal Buddhist/other/"spiritual"/who the hell knows?

Due to the last bit (which would include my wife and a lot of her family) you get wildly varying numbers for no religion and Buddhist in various surveys.
 
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The current breakdown is to use ballpark figures:
15-20%ish Protestant
10ish Catholic
20-25%ish at least somewhat practicing Buddhist
25%ish non-religious
20-25%ish non-practicing Buddhist/nominal Buddhist/other/"spiritual"/who the hell knows?

Due to the last bit (which would include my wife and a lot of her family) you get wildly varying numbers for no religion and Buddhist in various surveys.

I don't know what figures you're looking at, but the official results, and those seen in most polls are thus;

Non-religious - 46.5-49%
Christianity - 26-29%
-Protestant - 18%
-Catholic - 11%
Buddhism - 23%
Other Religions - 2%
 
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