Malê Rising

Yeesh. I really underestimated just how much effect early AIDS was going to have on medical and societal development. That's not even talking about the growth of an anti-semitism like movement against Africans in some areas. I'm almost afraid to ask what kind of death numbers we should be expecting out of all this.

To slightly less horrifying matters, I need to make a quick correction regarding that earlier comment I made about heritage speakers of Norwegian in the Midwest. A reread indicates that the study was of self-identified heritage speakers and only 40 people, rather than 40 percent, retained fluent speech or comprehension. I no longer have the numbers, but at least in Wisconsin the Norwegians were one of the more cohesive groups due to founding their own towns, churches, and newspapers all in very rural areas, and I cannot find the old percentages of remaining heritage speakers. They could be strong in a better environment, but they could also end up similar to OTL, at least here in Wisconsin.

EDIT: Some further research pulled up this map from the same source to give you an idea of heritage speaking communities and people who speak a language other than English at home and what's more prevalent IOTL 2000. Of course, the numbers these days aren't particularly impressive, but they should give you a good idea of relative strength of different ethnicities within the upper midwest. Sorry for beating a dead horse like this. It's got me interested enough to do research, right now.
 
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As always Jon, I'm humbled by your writing which makes mine look as pale as flour. Yet again, social implications arise showing a world with some actual difference in it. Certainly I will remain a cheerleader of this tale.

What I'm saying is that men are dicks (no pun intended), even more so in the past, so there's going to be those who demand sex whether the wives want it or not AND refuse to use condoms since they know their wives don't have it and vice-versa thee wives know they don't have it.

I think you should make a thread in Chat to better illucidate your ideas, and refrain from derailing this thread. I would love to see a wall of text explaining the power of a misandrist view of social history, as there isn't enough of it today. :)
 
And thats gonna be the majority of people? Ok. You're gonna need to give me some proof.

Fact of the matter is, a huge barrier to contraception has been lifted. The social disdain for contraceptive use is being eroded as well. There's a huge panic about the disease, which will cause uncertainty no matter what. I don't care if there are several who'll have the mindset you describe. For many people, they will take advantage of this, and that will translate into a smaller birthrate.

Let's just say I tend to have less faith in Humanity and lave it there on the point.

That said though, there still would be pressure to have more kids, both from a cultural standpoint and from a practical standpoint since, as far as I can tell medicine, while advancing, is'nt at the point where the Child Death rate has been diminished significantly enough to not need to have multiple children.
 

Deleted member 67076

That said though, there still would be pressure to have more kids, both from a cultural standpoint and from a practical standpoint since, as far as I can tell medicine, while advancing, is'nt at the point where the Child Death rate has been diminished significantly enough to not need to have multiple children.
This I disagree.

While I don't doubt that there's pressure to have kids, no one is criticizing a couple having 2 kids instead of 5.

Also, I disagree on the latter point. TTL most likely would have better medical treatment and infrastructure, which should help cut down on infant/early childhood and maternal mortality.

Besides, IOTL, by the 1920s, infant mortality was far less of a problem than it had been in the decades past, even in rural areas.
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
Well I laid off this timeline for a long time as it was simply being updated too much - I've been trying to focus my reading on fewer areas at any one time. But here I am. I've been rereading from the outset of the great war and will probably continue until sometime around 2017, when I catch up with you.

In the meantime, I'll contribute my uselessly out of date thoughts. :)

The differences in movement between our Great War and MR's are really striking. It's not so much the wide spread of global fronts; the movement there is indeed substantial - say trucks for example - but consistent with the OTL war. It's Europe that is most divergent.

The historical theater was one of dramatic and mobile opening offensives, followed by prolonged stalemates, with substantial movements thereafter largely being limited to the moment after a combatant had collapsed almost entirely. So there were decisive mobile victories in East Prussia and Galicia at the outset, the huge sweeping invasion of Belgium was itself outflanked and driven back, then only Serbia's fall until exhaustion, mass reinforcement, and the Bolsheviks allowed movement in France and Italy and Russia.

Though we tended to talk about it as a war of less movement, the European fronts in this TL were actually almost the reverse. What it had in common was a fair bit of movement in the opening offensives on Northern Germany. But after that the parallels really broke down. Even some of the less successful offensives gained ground in the tens of miles mid-war, while a few were extraordinarily successful. The invasion of Bohemia, across trench lines and mountains directly into the rail supply of an intact power, has nothing in OTL to really compare it to.

Then, oddly, this trend slightly reversed in the closing days of the war. France and Austria - their political systems disrupted and recognizing defeat as a certainty - could and did stop their attackers. This does match some OTL parallels, of course. Just seems out of place next to the deep driving assaults of this war.

My other thought so far is in regards to French expansion. The British drew on vast reserves of Indian manpower to keep up the war in Europe, as the French to a degree did with West African citoyens. But where the British efforts fractured the Imperial system, the French ones had little in way of negative effects for the French body politic. On the contrary, without the African departments the civil war might well have been longer and bloodier. As such I would have thought the expansion of the French system would be taken as much more threatening by its former opponents. Not only was a British colony annexed directly to France, but the state grew impressively. Only Germany's strength benefited more, and in long-term projections even they might fall in second place. Anyway, I noticed the dearth of shrill editorials screaming the threat of Black France Arisen Like A Nubian Phoenix et cetera et cetera.

Carry on then.
 
....
My other thought so far is in regards to French expansion. The British drew on vast reserves of Indian manpower to keep up the war in Europe, as the French to a degree did with West African citoyens. But where the British efforts fractured the Imperial system, the French ones had little in way of negative effects for the French body politic. On the contrary, without the African departments the civil war might well have been longer and bloodier. As such I would have thought the expansion of the French system would be taken as much more threatening by its former opponents. Not only was a British colony annexed directly to France, but the state grew impressively. Only Germany's strength benefited more, and in long-term projections even they might fall in second place. Anyway, I noticed the dearth of shrill editorials screaming the threat of Black France Arisen Like A Nubian Phoenix et cetera et cetera.

Carry on then.

I don't know if you're skimming ahead a bit while plodding through the updates. Let me just say that I was rather surprised at the delayed manner in which the consequences of the war came home to Britain--and that, having delayed the crisis, Britain could not muddle through with a bit more grace than you will find they will.:(

In other words, I didn't see the extensive involvement of African and Indian colonized peoples in Britain's war effort as necessarily threatening to the continuance of the Empire in some form at all, any more than France's proved to be. That it was possible they'd wind up breaking away, seeing that the Imperial Race has no clothes as it were, or rather that the clothes they had hid a mere temporary advantage that was rapidly dissolving, which was certainly a factor in the breakdown of OTL empires, was clear enough, but I counted on offsetting factors balancing that--as is by and large happening for the French, and seems to be working for the Germans as well.

No, if you see fault lines in the British system--look at Britannia herself, not her colonies.

Maybe your perspective can help me come to better understanding of just what the hell went wrong there.

Trying to understand it as best I can--perhaps, OTL, despite the many grumbles and denunciations of Yankee greed one finds in site-members of the Britwanking persuasion, perhaps the OTL dark cloud of American dominance of the financial and business world in the interwar period had a silver lining for Britain and France after all--the OTL market Crash and subsequent Depression did not look like anything of London or Paris's making, so the British and French governments could scramble for means of riding out the crisis without too many recriminations--they blamed Wall Street and our flaky Yank financial system and turned to digging themselves out of the hole they didn't feel they made, or anyway tried to keep themselves from sinking deeper.

ITTL on the other hand--the US economy grows, but does not dominate the world, and the City of London remains the chief center of world capitalism. So when world capitalism melts down, perhaps Britain's movers and shakers had their hands tied and their eyes blinded by the responsibility they'd retained; the mental paralysis associated OTL with Herbert Hoover and his Wall Street gurus freezes Parliament and the City instead, with eventual consequences you'll be reading about.

And for those of us more or less up to date, just as I was puzzled how Britain came to such an ugly place, so now I am a bit bemused that they seem to be getting over it so well and so soon, now. I rather thought the Imperialist debacle would have ongoing destructive and depressing consequences for generations to come--having wrecked the most lucrative parts of the Imperial system by winding it too hard, what has Britain to fall back on to save them from spiraling ruin that would once again undercut the credibility of the best Britons and once again empower the worst, for yet another binge of trying to bluff their way out of crisis, leading to a still worse hangover and more malaise? Until Britain falls as low as other former world-leading empires, and slowly begins to recover as a third-rate nation among others?

Y'all know that's not what I wished on Britain, but having taken the tragic fall they did ITTL, it is not clear to me how they avoid hitting bottom.:(

As for France not being more feared:

I certainly felt that during the wartime posts, the French were doing remarkably well in some respects--basically that they manage to project their power beyond French borders early on, and then when the inevitable attrition started to wear them down faster than the BOG powers, by then those powers, prevailng though they were, were themselves exhausted. Russia and Austria broke, but while Germany and Britain made substantial gains, it was at a terrible cost to each. Having held the worst of the war away from her borders, the French were in a position to cut their losses before final catastrophe fell upon them--and part of the leverage they had to minimize their losses at the peace conferences was that the British and Germans were so near collapse themselves--they were willing to quit while they were ahead.

So if the French could set all the world aflame once and then bow out while merely singed, should they be feared for threatening to do it again? But France hardly made the Great War happen all on her own...with neither Russia nor the Austro-Hungarian state in a position to play their former roles (the latter being pretty much terminated) France alone can hardly hope to prevail.

Going Socialist, I suspect, was at the time it happened regarded by Britain and Germany as weakness, not gathering strength.
 
People need to remember that the actual chance of HIV infection with any one sexual encounter is relatively small. The highest risk, 3%, is for being the "bottom" in anal sex. But for everything else, the risks are significantly less than 1% - more like 1 in 300 for any heterosexual encounter for either partner.

What this means is statistically speaking you're pretty unlikely to get AIDS, even if you don't use condoms, unless you:

1. Have hundreds of one-night stands a year. Realistically speaking, this is only likely for certain subsections of gay culture (like the bathhouse culture IOTL), as well as prostitutes. The average straight man simply cannot get enough casual sex to put themselves at risk, unless they use prostitutes, and most cannot afford such heavy usage anyway.

2. Engage in multiple concurrent sexual relationships (e.g., Polyamory). This is how AIDS became so widespread in Africa IOTL. If you have a wife, as well as a lover, and both your wife and your lover also have one additional regular partner, and so on, your risk of getting infected is actually much, much higher.

As modern-day sexual norms in the west drifted to serial monogamy, risk was kept relatively low. But if the focus becomes on "being safe" with prostitutes and reducing causal encounters, but a system which promotes lifelong mongamy but in practice continues to have mistresses and the like, the potential for AIDS epidemics in the West is much, much higher than IOTL. Sadly, people will actually tend to curtail the only moderately risky parts of their behavior, seldom using protection with their long term second partners, and thus the spread of AIDS will continue.

This. More readers need to read this and let it sink in and realize how the above scientific facts coupled with the emerging sexual conservatism and openness to condoms, birth control, etc. can seriously limit the "epidemic" or spread of HIV in many of TTL's societies.
 
This. More readers need to read this and let it sink in and realize how the above scientific facts coupled with the emerging sexual conservatism and openness to condoms, birth control, etc. can seriously limit the "epidemic" or spread of HIV in many of TTL's societies.

I think it was implied, but basically the most important changes in terms of OTL for AIDS prevention in the West were the rise of divorce and the rise in the age of marriage. This is because it meant people didn't feel shackled into "monogamous" relationships when they really wanted to have other sexual partners. So when they got bored with their partner, instead of continuing to have sex with them infrequently, but augmenting elsewhere, they just broke things off entirely and moved on to someone new.

Up until TTL's AIDS epidemic, sexual mores in the West were clearly heading in this direction. However, growing sexual conservatism could result in regression, since social norms tend to be only vigorously enforced when people are watching, and not always deeply internalized.
 
People need to remember that the actual chance of HIV infection with any one sexual encounter is relatively small [...] As modern-day sexual norms in the west drifted to serial monogamy, risk was kept relatively low. But if the focus becomes on "being safe" with prostitutes and reducing causal encounters, but a system which promotes lifelong mongamy but in practice continues to have mistresses and the like, the potential for AIDS epidemics in the West is much, much higher than IOTL.

This. More readers need to read this and let it sink in and realize how the above scientific facts coupled with the emerging sexual conservatism and openness to condoms, birth control, etc. can seriously limit the "epidemic" or spread of HIV in many of TTL's societies.

I think it was implied, but basically the most important changes in terms of OTL for AIDS prevention in the West were the rise of divorce and the rise in the age of marriage [...] Up until TTL's AIDS epidemic, sexual mores in the West were clearly heading in this direction. However, growing sexual conservatism could result in regression, since social norms tend to be only vigorously enforced when people are watching, and not always deeply internalized.

Fair point. This is a time when divorce is just starting to become socially acceptable and where it's legally difficult in most places. The norm for those in unhappy marriages will be to seek comfort somewhere else, and they'll probably be less careful with regular mistresses than when visiting prostitutes or having casual encounters. So there are your polyamorous networks that facilitate the spread of HIV.

I wonder if no-fault divorce will take off sooner in TTL. The danger of HIV probably won't do the trick, as the connection between divorce laws and HIV risk would be poorly understood. The decline of double standards, on the other hand... if keeping a mistress became a real scandal rather than something tolerated with a wink and a nod, then pressure might build to allow those in bad marriages to get out. Combine that with condoms, and we're looking at a hell of a culture war in the 30s through 50s.

The age of marriage will probably continue to increase, though, as feminism progresses and education becomes more important.

That's not even talking about the growth of an anti-semitism like movement against Africans in some areas.

Africans in TTL are stirring up some of the same fears that have historically been stirred by Jews. Certain parts of the far right see them as proxies for the alienating aspects of modernity and as invasive plague-carriers.

Of course, such feelings are extreme even on the right, and most Frenchmen or Germans are willing enough to see Africans (and Jews) as neighbors, but there's an ugly undercurrent that the Congo fever has done nothing to dissipate.

I'm almost afraid to ask what kind of death numbers we should be expecting out of all this.

HIV works slowly and it's nowhere near as easy to catch as insect-borne diseases, so it won't be like the Black Death or the 1918 influenza epidemic. Also, while HIV will push down life expectancies over time, other medical innovations will be pushing them up, so some of the effect will be masked. (In OTL, southern and eastern African countries with life expectancies below 50 years didn't suffer the "HIV dip" that countries with higher life expectancies did, or at least had a much shallower one - and life expectancy in the developed world in 1920 was in the low 50s.)

TTL's world population in 2014 will have a 5 in front of it, but the great majority of that will be down to an earlier demographic transition in the developing world.

I no longer have the numbers, but at least in Wisconsin the Norwegians were one of the more cohesive groups due to founding their own towns, churches, and newspapers all in very rural areas, and I cannot find the old percentages of remaining heritage speakers. They could be strong in a better environment, but they could also end up similar to OTL, at least here in Wisconsin.

It seems to be a matter of critical mass - town-size communities are less likely to keep the language than groups that are a majority in a significant part of the state. For Norwegians, it seems likely that they'd keep some cultural traits and folk customs but lose the language by the late twentieth century.

That said though, there still would be pressure to have more kids, both from a cultural standpoint and from a practical standpoint since, as far as I can tell medicine, while advancing, is'nt at the point where the Child Death rate has been diminished significantly enough to not need to have multiple children.

Also, I disagree on the latter point. TTL most likely would have better medical treatment and infrastructure, which should help cut down on infant/early childhood and maternal mortality.

Besides, IOTL, by the 1920s, infant mortality was far less of a problem than it had been in the decades past, even in rural areas.

Medical advances aren't the only factor that affects child mortality; better nutrition and sanitation will boost kids' chances even if medicine stays the same. The accessibility of medical care is also a major factor, and railroads and motor wagons will ensure that more children are able to get to the hospital in emergencies.

This is still the pre-vaccine era, so child mortality is high by modern standards (look at how many children Funmilayo has had compared to how many she's raised) but it was declining by the 1920s in both OTL and TTL.

That, and the world is becoming increasingly urbanized, meaning that a child is more likely to be an expense than an extra hand. I expect that birth rates will in fact decline and are probably declining already.

Though we tended to talk about it as a war of less movement, the European fronts in this TL were actually almost the reverse. What it had in common was a fair bit of movement in the opening offensives on Northern Germany. But after that the parallels really broke down. Even some of the less successful offensives gained ground in the tens of miles mid-war, while a few were extraordinarily successful. The invasion of Bohemia, across trench lines and mountains directly into the rail supply of an intact power, has nothing in OTL to really compare it to.

Then, oddly, this trend slightly reversed in the closing days of the war. France and Austria - their political systems disrupted and recognizing defeat as a certainty - could and did stop their attackers. This does match some OTL parallels, of course. Just seems out of place next to the deep driving assaults of this war.

The tl;dr explanation for that is that the successful mid-war offensives coincided with the adoption of new tactics and technology - the Bohemian offensive, for instance, was the first in which storm-troop tactics were widely used - while the stalemates occurred after the enemy learned to deal with those tactics. And there were also fronts that didn't move as much; the Rhine and southern German fronts, for instance, might be static for months at a time, and even the western Balkans were often a morass of trench warfare.

My other thought so far is in regards to French expansion. The British drew on vast reserves of Indian manpower to keep up the war in Europe, as the French to a degree did with West African citoyens. But where the British efforts fractured the Imperial system, the French ones had little in way of negative effects for the French body politic.

This was mainly because Britain had to make wrenching changes in its imperial system in order to realize India's recruitment and war-production potential, while France largely made use of structures that already existed.

In any event, I think Shevek23 has it: that in the early days after the war, France was regarded as weak, both because of its fractured politics and because its expansion of citizenship had led to civil war. By the time it got back on its feet, its government was relatively unthreatening and it was more interested in internal reforms than expansion.

Granted, there were many who took a less sanguine view of France, and Gallic-menace screeds did occasionally grace the opinion pages, but most people were too sick of war to want to do anything about it.

Let me just say that I was rather surprised at the delayed manner in which the consequences of the war came home to Britain--and that, having delayed the crisis, Britain could not muddle through with a bit more grace than you will find they will.:(

Again, the tl;dr explanation is that the Imperial period was disastrous enough for its lessons to actually be learned. In a way, the scale of the catastrophe worked in post-Imperial Britain's favor; if it had been less, then the next government to take over might have had another go.

The dominions also helped with the recovery, given that a strong Britain lends strength to all of them, although their price was a major change in the empire's internal structure.

Not all is wine and roses, though, and the British government is by no means immune from making more costly mistakes. In fact, for a wounded power, even non-mistaken decisions may be costly; we might see one of those fairly soon.

Update toward the end of the week, I think, although as always, that's not a promise.
 
Call me curious, but what are the status of witch doctors around this time period? I think I can recall there being some West African societies (and beyond, such as the Malays and Javanese) having witch doctors or something close to the sort.
 
If AIDS is becoming far more widespread in this timeline it also inevitably becomes less and less deadly (the less virulent variants of HIV prevail over more lethal ones - the carrier that lives longer and in better shape has more chances to germinate other carriers). So by the end of XX century Congo Fever would be justas annoying as herpes (well, maybe slightly more, lest's say: as flu). And the darwinian selection would also quickly expose humans who have innate resistance to HIV and give them chance to breed. And the beginning of XX century is a time when the eugenics has strongest following so combining it with HIV resistance would be something to be consider. Especially if some populations show for some reason higher than average resistance or even immunity to HIV, as it was in case of Black Death, it would for sure bring large numbers of insane speculations why it is. It is to be seen if this hastens the development of human genetics or muddle it?
 
If AIDS is becoming far more widespread in this timeline it also inevitably becomes less and less deadly (the less virulent variants of HIV prevail over more lethal ones - the carrier that lives longer and in better shape has more chances to germinate other carriers). So by the end of XX century Congo Fever would be justas annoying as herpes (well, maybe slightly more, lest's say: as flu). And the darwinian selection would also quickly expose humans who have innate resistance to HIV and give them chance to breed. And the beginning of XX century is a time when the eugenics has strongest following so combining it with HIV resistance would be something to be consider. Especially if some populations show for some reason higher than average resistance or even immunity to HIV, as it was in case of Black Death, it would for sure bring large numbers of insane speculations why it is. It is to be seen if this hastens the development of human genetics or muddle it?
Actually, I dont think you see that happening iOTL. I think hoping for a 'benign' hiv is whistling in the wind. Will there be selection pressure to increase the prevalence of hiv-resistant genes? Sure, but that takes a number of gennerations, and human generations are long.
 
Call me curious, but what are the status of witch doctors around this time period? I think I can recall there being some West African societies (and beyond, such as the Malays and Javanese) having witch doctors or something close to the sort.

If a witch doctor is anyone who uses magical healing rituals, then they're fading fast in West Africa, the Copperbelt, the Swahili coast and most of South Africa (although there are still many people who take their Western medicine along with a few spells or prayers for placebo effect). They're much more common in central Africa, back-country Tanganyika and the less developed parts of South Africa, and have even taken on added importance in some places due to the spread of Congo fever. In Asia, I'd guess that there's a similar division between urban Java and Malaya on the one hand, and the hinterland on the other (especially in outlying islands such as Borneo/Kalimantan and Sulawesi, or in the interior of Sumatra).

If AIDS is becoming far more widespread in this timeline it also inevitably becomes less and less deadly (the less virulent variants of HIV prevail over more lethal ones - the carrier that lives longer and in better shape has more chances to germinate other carriers).

Actually, I dont think you see that happening iOTL. I think hoping for a 'benign' hiv is whistling in the wind. Will there be selection pressure to increase the prevalence of hiv-resistant genes? Sure, but that takes a number of gennerations, and human generations are long.

Also, HIV has some traits that might slow that process down. It propagates slowly, meaning that it doesn't burn through populations as fast as the flu does. Also, because of its long incubation time, many HIV-infected people will live long enough to have children, and most of those children won't be infected themselves (even the child of an HIV-positive mother who is breast-fed has only a 1 in 3 chance of becoming infected). This means that HIV isn't as much of an evolutionary disadvantage as a faster-acting, faster-spreading virus.

There was a study in 2005 that addressed whether HIV was becoming less virulent, and its conclusion was basically "reply hazy, ask again later." The authors believe that HIV might eventually come to coexist with humans the way SIV does with sooty mangabeys, but that it could take generations. Others have suggested that HIV may be getting more virulent. Of course, HIV won't necessarily evolve the same way in TTL as in OTL, given the different conditions of its spread to humans, but I'd guess that it will have only begun evolving to a more benign form by the present day.
 

Sulemain

Banned
That would a shocking twist, wouldn't of? This TL ends with the entire planetary population dying of HIV/AIDs?

I just had the idea that while pre-marital sex between men and women would be frowned upon (for good reasons for once) female on female sex might be encouraged, at least in some countries! Just a wild theory, of course. How is lesbianism and female sexuality seen in general? In OTL UK, there was a famous book (which I can't remember the title of right now) in which female sexual happiness was justified and encouraged. Anything like that ITTL? Like you said, things are becoming less hypocritical, but I wonder what that's like from a female perspective?
 
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Actually, I dont think you see that happening iOTL. I think hoping for a 'benign' hiv is whistling in the wind. Will there be selection pressure to increase the prevalence of hiv-resistant genes? Sure, but that takes a number of gennerations, and human generations are long.

Jonathan Edelstein said:
Also, HIV has some traits that might slow that process down. It propagates slowly, meaning that it doesn't burn through populations as fast as the flu does. Also, because of its long incubation time, many HIV-infected people will live long enough to have children, and most of those children won't be infected themselves (even the child of an HIV-positive mother who is breast-fed has only a 1 in 3 chance of becoming infected). This means that HIV isn't as much of an evolutionary disadvantage as a faster-acting, faster-spreading virus.

I think that one factor escapes our attention here. OTL AIDS spreads and is monitored closely in developed countries where there is well developed health care and the pairs have one, two or three, seldom more children. So the mechanism of darwinian selection can not catch. The infected persons are prohibited from procreation so the possible genes of resistance have no chance to show their advantage over other genes.
But in this timeline we are talking about world population which just emerged from the world war so many people are starved, deseased, wounded or weakened in other ways. Beside in this time women were encouraged to bear as many children as they could until climacterium - over ten if possible. So the women who managed to live longer after getting infected could bear more children and these of children who were more HIV-resistant had more chances to have their children - with at least partial resistance. I think that syphilis can be close analogy - in XVI century it was a desease as deadly as leprosis. But it was not killing at once and the symptoms of infection were delayed. In XIX century you could contract syphilis and then fight it on your own when you had strong organism. I think it become less virulent (or the people become stronger, who knows).

I'm going to closely monitor the situation in Africa and South East Asia to find out if in OTL there are symptoms of loss of virulence by AIDS when it is spread over a numerous population for generations. If I'm not mistaken the generation exchange is much quicker there than in developed countries so the possible changes in lethality of HIV can be (maybe) spotted earlier.
 

Ljp4KuC.jpg

Zélia Moreira, A Princely Republic: Ilorin During the British Period (Ilorin: Popular Press, 2007)

… Muhammadu Abacar’s dictatorship outlasted the Imperial Government by less than eighteen months.

His rule had been embattled nearly from the beginning: the imamate had declared his presidency illegal, and after three generations of civil liberties, the people disliked his censorship and repression. Few respected the rulings of the imams he had handpicked to fill the qadis’ courts, and as others in West Africa and the Ottoman world had done before them, trade unions and religious brotherhoods withdrew participation from society and formed parallel institutions. Radicals from Sokoto and the Adamawa industrial belt, raised in a harder school than their Ilorin brethren, streamed in to provide support and organization. But as long as the Imperial Party held power in London, fear of it prevented the people from rebelling openly.

The Imperial Government’s fall brought the underground opposition into the open. Although Muhammadu had railed against the Imperials, it was clear to all that he ruled with their tacit support, and that a threat to him might bring British troops from Lagos and Igbo country. The fear of invasion was now gone, replaced by something akin to the revolutionary spirit of the 1840s. Crowds of people resurrected the tradition of the assembly-field by surrounding unpopular officials and shouting them down; Umaru Abacar and the other dissident imams called for strikes and protests. Muhammadu responded with violent repression, but the local assemblies and labor brotherhoods fought back with arms secured from the north, and the army’s own loyalty was increasingly in question.

The act that finally tipped the balance, however, came not from the radical north but from the conservative south: the Yoruba city-states of the New Oyo Confederation. Ever since the confederacy was formed in response to the Royal Niger Company threat [1], the Yoruba had been content to follow Ilorin’s lead; it had, after all, brought them victory and prosperity. But there had always been an undercurrent of resentment over the city-states being economic and political adjuncts of Ilorin, and with Muhammadu’s rise, that resentment was transformed into fear of what their neighbor might do. And fear would eventually turn to resolution.

The July 1922 meeting at which the Confederation censured Ilorin appeared to many contemporaries like a bolt from the blue, but it was in fact the result of careful organization. The groundwork was laid by Funmilayo Abacar, who had conceived of the idea and spent months securing the support of British officials and Yoruba monarchs. By the time the city-states met at Ife, their agenda was already set, and they knew that Britain would defend them if Muhammadu responded to it with aggression.

Ilorin did not attend the conference, and the vote to suspend its privileges was nearly unanimous, well over the two thirds needed for a carrying majority. And its suspension carried with it the loss of free movement and transit through the Yoruba states. Industrialists all at once needed visas to visit their warehouses in Lagos – visas that, somehow, always encountered bureaucratic delays – and, worse yet, had to pay heavy fees to transport goods to port by rail.

Nor was this a problem that could be solved by leaving the confederacy. The 1880 treaty with Britain recognized Oyo collectively, and not Ilorin in its own right, as an Imperial Domain; if it seceded, Ilorin would be just another princely state, without the advantages that the pact conferred. And the Empire Office in London made clear that it would take a dim view of any attempt to renegotiate the treaty while Muhammadu remained in power.

So the sanctions bit hard, and they cost Muhammadu the support of the industrial class, which had reluctantly supported him as a bastion against the radicals. The factory owners suddenly began to obey the imamate’s injunction against paying taxes to an unlawful government, and unilaterally canceled their military contracts. Without money to pay his soldiers, and without the support of any sector of society, the game was up: in January 1923, Muhammadu shot himself as crowds surrounded the old Abacar home on Oyo Square that he had made into a presidential palace.

After that, events followed quickly: a provisional government of True Abacarist trade unionists, liberal imams and industrialists took power, and the Empire Office suddenly lost its reluctance to negotiate a new order in the lower Niger. Matters could not go back to the way they had been before Muhammadu seized power – the Yoruba city-states had come into their own, and now wished a destiny separate from Ilorin – but Muhammadu’s fall created more of a sense of shared victory than bitterness, and it proved easy for London to broker an amicable divorce. On August 1, 1923, the Republic of Ilorin and the Oyo Confederation (the “New” had got lost along the way) became separate Domains of the British Empire…

… It has been said that Muhammadu’s downfall kept the Malê states British a decade longer than they would otherwise have been, and that is likely true. Everyone realized that, without Britain to act as guarantor, the attempt to discipline Ilorin would probably have led to war, and that only British power had given the Yoruba city-states the leverage to shake off Ilorin’s dominance. But at the same time, the affair reinforced the Niger Valley states’ wariness of Britain: after all, if it had cooperated in taking down one government, what was to prevent it from toppling another that was not to its liking? And while an Imperial Domain had originally been the rough equivalent of a dominion, the dominions’ independence had advanced while the domains’ had not.

The search for a middle ground between full independence and the status quo would lead to a revival of Usman Abacar’s vision of a Niger Valley federation: a federal dominion, like Australasia or South Africa, that would have more leverage vis-à-vis Britain and would be able to police its member states without British help. The first stirrings of renewed federalism came from the left: the All-Niger Workers’ Congress, a loose coalition of federalist trade unions and labor parties throughout the region, was founded in 1923, and attracted the support of such figures as the insubordinate jaji turned novelist Honório Yaji. [2] But before long, federalism – and opposition to it – would transcend left and right…

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Aminatou Salazar, Africa’s Twentieth Century (Univ. of Sokoto Press )

… To the Niger Valley federalists, South Africa was an example of how entities with different levels of sovereignty and even different imperial patrons could form an effective union. Their opponents also saw South Africa as an example, but a cautionary one, pointing to the conflicts in Matabeleland and Basotholand and to the way in which the Imperial Party had been able to bring the government to a virtual standstill. To them, any attempt to combine colonies, protectorates and independent states was doomed from the start.

In the 1920s, three parts of British West Africa were still crown colonies. The Gold Coast was relatively content with that status, which was all that stood between them and annexation by the Dahomey and Asante kingdoms to the north. The other two were not. The Lower Niger colony – Igboland – was still in a ferment after the Women’s War [3]; although London had retreated from the worst policies even before the Imperial Government fell, the Igbo now wanted self-rule rather than a return to the old status quo. And Lagos had become the Hong Kong of West Africa, the port where Malê, Coaster, British and Brazilian trade routes met: it had a polyglot population of Yoruba, Igbo, Krio, Afro-Brazilians, Indians and Europeans, and the colonial authorities were torn between the restive middle class’ demands for self-determination and their own desire to keep a firm grip on such an important entrepôt.

The princely states also ran the gamut from contented to otherwise. Bonny, Calabar and the Gobir Agency were peaceful, the former two because of their wealth and the latter because it was remote, traditionally-minded and generally left alone by London. Dahomey and Asante were quite the opposite: during the Imperial era, their kings had correctly guessed that they had hunting licenses against the domestic opposition and had used those licenses ruthlessly. Thousands of dissidents had been imprisoned or exiled, and with the fall of the Imperial Government, they now redoubled their efforts for change. In Wukari, Borgu and the Nupe kingdom, where Igbo and Malê merchants brought new ideas and the rulers had met the twentieth century somewhat less than halfway, the population simmered rather than boiled, but the desire for more was just under the surface.

And the domains, as well, had their discontents. Sokoto and Adamawa had democratized, but not enough to suit the domestic opposition; the struggle between the industrialists and the labor brotherhoods had only been inflamed by the Imperial era; and through long habit, the British commissioners supported the rulers against their peoples’ aspirations. Both were governed by elites who had been educated in British-sponsored civil service schools and who had ties to the throne and the industrialists, and pressure from below had made these elites all the more determined to hang onto power.

The differences between these states presented a formidable obstacle to federation. By 1923, the crown colonies had been granted elected legislatures and expanded civil rights but not responsible government, and the domains were wary of combining with entities over which London retained so much control. The more autocratic of the princely states balked at the democratic reforms they would need to institute in order to join a union. The smaller states feared domination by the larger ones, and Oyo worried that a union would put it back under the Malê dominance it had but recently shaken off. The Igbo, Fon, Asante and Niger Delta peoples, who were Christian, were unsure that they wanted to be part of a mostly-Muslim dominion. So negotiations dragged on, sometimes encouraged by Britain and sometimes not, but to little avail.

The general strike of 1928, called by the All-Niger Workers’ Congress to support democracy and federation, would be a catalyzing event for all sides. The strike began in Zaria but spread quickly to other major cities in the Niger Valley, and in many, local grievances overwhelmed the common agenda. In Kumasi and Abomey, the protests spilled over into open revolt against the monarchies; in Sokoto, strikers demanded a third republic; in Lagos and Owerri, they called for immediate dominion status.

The governor of Lagos, who was the highest-ranking British official on hand, was well-intentioned but alarmed at disorder spreading throughout the lower Niger. He negotiated with the Igbo strikers but declared martial law in Lagos port, and when the princely rulers asked for British troops to suppress the revolts in their kingdoms, he acceded. By the time the dust had cleared, hundreds were dead in the Dahomey and Asante capitals, and the Emir of Adamawa had imposed emergency rule on the industrial cities.

By February 1929, the strike was over. In some places, the strikers had made gains: Sokoto instituted fully responsible government beginning that year, and more powers were transferred to the Lower Niger and Lagos legislatures. But in other states, the suppression of the protests, and Britain’s role in that suppression, would leave bitter memories, and it also killed the idea of federation for the time being. The three Malê successor states and the Oyo Confederation would attain dominion status separately in 1930, but a unified Dominion of West Africa seemed farther away than ever…

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Zélia Moreira, A Princely Republic: Ilorin During the British Period (Ilorin: Popular Press, 2007)

… The parliament elected in 1923 had a dual mandate as legislature and constitutional assembly, and a year into its term, it voted out Ilorin’s first written charter. This constitution, approved by referendum in early 1925, created the modern Ilorin Republic: with minor changes, the institutions and forms of government set by the 1925 document remain in effect today.

The constitution combined aspects of Westminster democracy with the institutions that had grown up during three generations of Abacarist rule, and sought to prevent a recurrence of the excesses that had marked the Muhammadu Abacar interregnum. The office of president, which Muhammadu had created and abused, was abolished. Instead, the prime minister would once again be the highest state officer and would be first among equals in a collective cabinet government. Civil liberties were made untouchable even in emergencies, the right to petition and sue the government was made virtually absolute, and a modern version of the assembly-field was institutionalized by requiring all legislative sessions to be open and forbidding votes from being taken until the citizens had a chance to speak.

Other provisions entrenched Abacarist labor legislation: the right to work and sustenance were added to the bill of rights, as were the right to safe working conditions and to a just wage as defined by Abacarist jurisprudence. The distinction between civil and sharia courts was formalized for the first time, but the two systems merged at the highest level: the supreme court of the republic would have an equal number of civil judges and qadis, and a majority of both was required to sustain a ruling…

… The early years under the new constitution were peaceful ones: the return to democracy, and the general prosperity of the 1920s made Ilorin’s politics less volatile than those of the other two successor states. The decade after Muhammadu’s downfall was more a chance for politics to catch up to the society Ilorin had become: one that was on the margins of being a developed country by the standards of its time, and one in which several of the founding institutions had become unnecessary.

With schools in every village, for instance, there was no longer a need for jajis; itinerant professionals were now more likely to be doctors who circulated in districts where clinics had not yet been built. Modern roads, motor wagons, cinema and radio had replaced itinerant peddler-storytellers. The descendants of the Malê smallholder-soldiers settled in the countryside during the First Sokoto Republic were now, for the most part, members of district cooperatives along with their Yoruba and Hausa neighbors. Indeed, there was no longer a distinct Malê population: for more than forty years, “Malê” meant anyone who spoke Sudanic and adopted Abacarist culture. Ilorin was still a country steeped in the legends of Usman dan Fodio and Paulo Abacar the Elder, and those legends suffused its political discourse, but it had moved on to other challenges and conflicts that were far from those stories.

Ilorin had modernized in other ways as well. In 1880, a typical family had slightly more than six children; by 1930, that number had declined to just under four. Life expectancy at birth stood at 52 years, and children who survived until age five could expect to reach their sixties. Before the Great War, a substantial majority of the population had been rural, but now almost 40 percent lived in the large towns, and the 1928 census found that Ilorin City had more than 600,000 people.

But decades of coal-based industrial growth and urbanization, especially the rapid expansion of the Great War and the 1900s, had brought their own problems, pollution and sanitation chief among them. The air in Ilorin City and other industrial towns was often smoggy and thick with factory smoke, causing a rise in asthma and other respiratory ailments. The water of the Asa and Niger rivers was no longer safe to drink, and fish stocks, which had been a traditional dietary supplement for those who lived along the rivers’ banks, had declined noticeably. Rising levels of pollution had been noted for some time, but after the “Ruhr fog” of 1926 – an acute air pollution episode in Germany that left more than 70 people dead [4] – doctors worried that it might become more than a nuisance.

It was under these circumstances that a new current entered Ilorin’s politics: that of concern for the environment. This had its precursors in other places: conservationist movements had existed in the United States and western Europe for decades, and anti-dumping laws had been enacted in Britain even in the nineteenth century. [5] But conservationism was still largely an elite movement and, in many cases, one that remained uneasy with industrial modernity. In Ilorin, where modernity was a foundation of the state and where people were keenly aware that industry was its lifeblood, such notions were a bad fit; instead, the founders of West African environmentalism proceeded from an Islamic humanist ethos and sought to treat both industry and nature as interdependent parts of the human world.

This would find its first expression in a 1927 ruling signed by a dozen Abacarist and Labor Belloist imams, several of whom, including Umaru Abacar, had been on the court that declared the Muhammadu government illegal. Citing the thirty-third sura [6] as well as various injunctions concerning the purity of water and the preservation of earth, they argued that humans held the earth in trust, not only for this generation of the ummah but for all past and future generations. There was thus an obligation to preserve places of historic significance and traditional livelihood, to provide clean air and water to those who lived now, and to ensure that leave the next generation a world in which it could survive.

The ruling also drew from Belloist ideas of faith community, writ large to encompass the entire world. Industry was good, for it reduced poverty and helped humanity achieve the dominion it had been granted over the world, but industrialists were part of a community that included humans, plants, animals and God. [7] As such, they were obligated not to foul the places where others lived, and the community as a whole had a duty to plan and regulate industrial development.

This was a remarkably political document for a faith tradition that professed withdrawal from politics, and in this it was similar to the Christian Stewardship movement of the following decades, which also claimed to be apolitical. Some of its fruits would be political, such as the clean-water legislation that passed the Ilorin parliament in 1929, and the opposition to it certainly would be. But it would also have a long-term effect on the ethical thinking of West African Islam, and some of that effect’s implications would be decades in appearing…

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Amara Konneh, “Liberia and the Beginning of Afro-Atlantism,” Journal of African Development 32: 285-92 (Fall 2001)

… By the end of the Imperial period, several thousand Sierra Leonean political dissidents had fled to Liberia. Many spent years there, establishing professional practices or working for Liberian businesses, and most of these found Liberian sponsors to connect them to the clientage networks that were still a critical part of the country’s political and economic life. With their return to Freetown after the Imperial Government’s fall, the Liberian patronage system – which had already established itself in Sierra Leone through marriages between elite Krio and Americo-Liberian families – now extended throughout both countries.

This, along with the return of other political exiles who had spent the Imperial years in South Carolina, marked a significant point in the development of what is now called the Afro-Atlantic Creole culture. The peoples of Sierra Leone, Liberia and the Carolina and Georgia lowlands had always thought of themselves as cousins, but now, more and more of them came to consider each other siblings instead, part of a single nation rather than a complex of related ones. It was a hybrid nation, one heavily influenced by the Kru and Mande of Liberia, the Temne of Sierra Leone and the folkways of the American South, but its people were at home nearly anywhere along the Atlantic rim.

Liberia’s newfound prosperity as an iron exporter [8], and its central position between Leonean and African-American cultures, would be a dominant influence in this hybrid people, and the Americo-Liberians – who still had enormous cultural influence even though the Kru and Mande had held political power for two generations – would be its chief architects. By 1930, the Krio and Gullah languages had largely merged into the Kru-inflected Liberian creole, and in the wake of the 1925 Jamaican Settlement, the patois of Jamaica had begun to do likewise. The Atlantic-rim cultures also shared a common core of foods, holidays, styles of clothing and family patterns that combined Britain, the southern United States and the Rice Coast, and by this time, even the inland peoples had assimilated to this culture through education and the clientage system.

For a generation, it had been common for middle-class families to have branches in all three countries. In the 1920s, intermarriage became increasingly common even for the working class and peasants; by 1940 it was the exception for a Leonean family not to have cousins in Monrovia and Charleston, and increasingly in the Caribbean as well. The rise of Liberian-style adoption bonds, and declared brotherhood between the children of close friends or business associates, made multinational families even more prevalent.

This inevitably led to calls for closer economic and political union, echoing the Afro-Atlantic ethos first professed by Edward Wilmot Blyden. [9] In 1925, Sierra Leone attained a greater measure of self-government, with an elected legislature similar to those in Lower Niger and Lagos, and one of that parliament’s first acts was to support a customs union with Liberia; the governor initially vetoed this union, but after further negotiations between Freetown, Monrovia and London, it was approved in 1928. Given Liberia’s history of friendship with France, this gave Leoneans easier access to markets in French West Africa and metropolitan France itself. And by 1930, both Liberia and Sierra Leone had begun to explore the possibility of upgrading the most-favored-nation status they already had with the United States…
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[1] See post 647.

[2] Remember him?

[3] See posts 3872 and 3893.

[4] Compare OTL’s Meuse fog of 1930.

[5] As in OTL.

[6] Verse 33:72 to be exact; this verse is sometimes cited as a source of Islamic environmental ethics in OTL.

[7] Sura 6:38: “There is not an animal in the earth, nor a flying creature flying on two wings, but they are peoples like unto you.” This is also a common citation in discussions of Islamic environmental ethics.

[8] See post 3196.

[9] See post 3196.
 
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A really wonderful update. Your hints about Liberia and Sierra Leone - I really can't see African states getting much further off the ground than they did IOTL - even with greater African-American political power in some places, they're still a minority.

I can see Islamic environmentalism having an impact in India (even though it's far removed from Abcarist traditions) - as India rebuilds from the war of independence and modernizes, environmental issues will begin to rise in importance rapidly.

Cheers,
Ganesha
 
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