Malê Rising

When I was pursuing a formal BA in History in the later 1990s I was exposed to the phase of the "culture wars" going on then in the USA, where Republicans under the wing of the then only recently gone elder Bush Administration were giving firepower to the general conservative backlash against "history from below;" one of their champions (Gertrude Himmelfarb, IIRC) described the various ethnic, feminist and so on movements as "history with the politics left out.":rolleyes:

I'm not sure how anyone could write the history of, say, the Great Awakenings or the labor movement, and believe that. Both were important to American history - political as well as cultural - and both were created from below. And they weren't the only ones.

It seemed to me at the time - and I was a nighttime college student then - that Himmelfarb and her like-minded compatriots were reacting to a mental caricature of "history from below" (involving historical determinism, extreme identity politics and the complete denial of the agency of the individual) rather than what history from below in fact was. But it's a little late in the day to refight those wars.

I'd have to check the exact timing to see which comes first, the Spanish crackdown in the Philippines or the American invasion of Mexico, but even if these Asian events started first, any American envoys who showed up to chat up the Filipinos would probably disclose a lean and hungry look that would put them off--they know that look.;)

The Filipino war of independence and the Mexican civil war/revolution both began in 1910, with the American intervention in Mexico beginning in 1913 just as the Filipino war was winding down. The Filipinos would certainly be aware of events in Mexico when the Americans come calling.

I expect you're right in anticipating that the Filipinos will try to do what Hawaii has done by playing the great powers off against each other. This will pose a danger of economic colonization and the rise of a comprador class (as has happened in TTL's Hawaii), but the Filipinos are certainly in a better position to manage it.

And you're also right that South Africa will be a very conflicted dominion, but we'll see how it will play out (the 1920s are not yet fully planned).

This is sort-of off topic and potentially quite vain since it's postulating an AH inside an AH, but man, I just can't abandon the idea of French Philippines, especially with TTL's France doing it. I mean, if Frenchness can grant Black African Muslims so much influence upon TTL France, I can only wonder what it will give long-converted Catholic Asians. And it will do exotic things to Filipino as well as French culture. Don't forget the Moros, too !

That would be quite a POD within a POD - once Spain establishes itself in the Philippines during the 16th century, it would probably take a defeat in war to dislodge them. Maybe this would have happened if Spain and France had fought on opposite sides of the Great War, although the Filipinos might not like Spanish overlords to be replaced by French ones any more than they wanted Spain to be replaced by the United States in OTL.

On the other hand, France will have a commercial presence in TTL's Philippines - it's a nice way back into East Asia for their merchant marine - so there's a possibility of mutual influence in the future.

(And the African cultural influence in TTL's France is somewhat like the OTL United States - there's a significant and visible impact in fields like the arts, music, food and fashion, but the underlying culture is still basically French.)

I am hoping that the land reform issue be solved in the earliest time possible. I don't want an Asian banana republic around... :( Or a Marcos please...

You don't have to worry about Marcos - maybe he'll have an ATL-cousin who will be a barangay captain somewhere. Land reform will be a big deal, though, especially if the foreign trading partners start investing in plantation land.

Thailand is what the Filipino leaders will be shooting for, but they'll have to be skillful to do it. English could help if it becomes the international language of business.

Update hopefully by tomorrow.
 
...English could help if it becomes the international language of business.

But it doesn't have quite the leg up it did OTL. It does have much of it--the British Empire, still riding quite high at the moment and not yet visibly falling--did its part for generations to shift things in that direction. What is different here is that Americans are not stepping into British shoes as fast as they have to pull out of them (let's just visualize both Britain and the US as some kind of cephalopod, many-tentacled monsters here to make that metaphor mean anything...:eek:) You've shown plenty of instances of American businessmen making a go of it despite the lack of a US imperial global power to protect them, so I guess Yankee entrepreneurs are swarming around after all, but they are in a weaker position than OTL.

So, at a hunch, I'd say there's about 2/3 to 3/4 the push to switch over to English in this world. Meanwhile the Americans are not taking over the cinema as much as OTL, and when they switch over to talkies there will be lots of polities capable of supporting their own film industry who don't speak English. The overwhelming US influence of the OTL post-WWII years simply will not be there; it will at best be one (possibly quite attractive) cultural strand among many others. Even if the pieces of the English-speaking world do tend to draw together later in the century due to parallel culture and social organization plus the shared background and language, I don't see them having the weight they did OTL.

So, considering that the British have already pushed the world in the "English is the global lingua franca" direction, and the Americans and English settler colonies will have some substantial influence, I'm guessing it comes out about 2/3 OTL--English will be a very good language for everyone to know, but it won't be nearly as essential as it is OTL. Also--globally speaking it will be the British dialect of it that remains standard--the American spin will generally be much weaker. That might not be the case in certain locations--presumably Coaster Africans learn the Charleston black dialect instead of either British or US high-class standard.

German won't be nearly as globally important as English but still a lot more widespread than it is outside of German-speaking Europe OTL. Japanese will probably be pretty widely spoken in East Asia, and Russian will have currency outside of Russia, at least in Ethiopia. Spanish and Portuguese will not be as eclipsed as OTL and will come back stronger, starting now rather than post-1945.
 
German may very well become the lingua Franca of central Africa. You've got all those colonies and I imagine there will be a significant, if not substantial, return of African migrants to Germany back to their ancestral lands, particularly those educated in Germany who may be drawn back to work as civil servants for the colonial governments, or as clerks and managers for the various mining enterprise. On top of that, there's a significant chunk of the Congo under German influence and Kohler's playground in Sud Kivu.
 
German may very well become the lingua Franca of central Africa. You've got all those colonies and I imagine there will be a significant, if not substantial, return of African migrants to Germany back to their ancestral lands, particularly those educated in Germany who may be drawn back to work as civil servants for the colonial governments, or as clerks and managers for the various mining enterprise. On top of that, there's a significant chunk of the Congo under German influence and Kohler's playground in Sud Kivu.

Yeah, I can actually see this happening. Rather than one language being in use everywhere, we might see economic influence more evenly spread out. On the other hand, all those Indian businessmen throughout the 20th century might cause English to stay in use in several areas, including Zanzibar and much of the Middle East.

English will certainly prosper in West Africa and perhaps even Southeast Asia.

OTOH, French might just be more popular in Europe depending on how the German economy does vis-a-vis France, and how much France intends to integrate its various 'Outremer' territories.

I was wondering if Arabic might get a resurgence however; if the Ottomans continue to prosper, and with Arabic becoming super important in the workings of the Empire, Arab merchants might be more widespread, competing with the use of English in East and West Africa. And if Turkestan establishes ties with the Ottomans, then perhaps even there! Though Turkish might continue to be important, as a whole, I'd place my bets on Arabic seeing a resurgence. Though obviously one dialect would have to win dominance over the others.
 

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Lothar Dörner, Princes and Paupers in the Federal Empire (Heidelberg Univ. Press, 2011)

… Germany grew quickly after the war. Its growth consisted at first of repairing wartime devastation – it was 1902 before German industrial output exceeded prewar levels – but it continued apace from there. Industrial growth in Germany between 1897 and 1913 kept pace with that of the United States and exceeded that of France or Britain. Germany lagged behind France in research and development – there would be no German equivalent to Verne’s industrial research institute until 1911 – but made up for that in precision engineering, and Germany became a leader in the high technology industries of the time. Its economic hegemony over much of central and eastern Europe only increased its prosperity, and as the 1910s dawned, Germany rivaled the United States for the highest living standard in the world.

This era of prosperity was not without controversy, however, because a key part of Germany’s growth was immigration. Much attention is given, and deservedly so, to the Indian and African veterans who settled in Germany after the war and who became an enduring presence in the Hanseatic cities and Berlin, but a far greater part of the postwar labor shortage was alleviated by newcomers from Poland and the former Habsburg lands. Between 1900 and 1910, about a million citizens of the Kingdom of Poland immigrated to the German Empire, and even more came as refugees from the Hungarian civil war, many of them ethnic Germans but also Hungarians, Romanians, Slovaks, and Roma. (Bohemia, which was a prosperous, democratic and industrialized Zollverein member, drew immigrants rather than contributing them; the Bohemians in Germany were mostly professionals and businessmen.)

These immigrants were necessary to fill the jobs created by postwar industrial development, but some Germans resented them. The Roma, especially, were stereotyped as thieves and disease carriers, as were Africans after the “Congo disease” was identified in the late 1900s, but nobody – not even the Ostdeutschen – was immune. Opposition to racism became a rallying point for the Social Democrats and the liberal parties, who welcomed immigrants into their ranks, but the nationalist parties took an anti-immigration stance which became increasingly hard-line as the economic crisis of the 1910s progressed…

… The German constitution provided for a model democracy on the federal level, but many states retained their nineteenth-century voting systems and forms of government. In Prussia, especially, the three-class franchise and the open ballot ensured that the state government would be dominated by conservatives and that the state’s delegation to the Reichsrat would lean strongly to the right. This, combined with the smaller principalities and duchies, created a built-in conservative majority in the Reichsrat to balance the liberal-dominated Reichstag.

The balance of forces between the houses of parliament, and between the empire and the states, made for stable and centrist government. But it also meant that the states had considerable freedom to be repressive. The states could not resurrect the anti-socialist laws or impose political censorship – freedom of expression and association were part of the federal bill of rights – but the criminal police and tax authorities were used to break up labor unions and progressive organizations.

The result was that the battle for democratization, already won at the imperial level, shifted to the states, with the postwar constitutions of Bavaria and Baden serving as models. In the Hanseatic cities, a combination of electoral victories and public protests forced the adoption of universal suffrage and the transformation of the city senates into cabinets responsible to the municipal parliaments. Peaceful change was also effected in some of the small states, where the electorate was conservative enough that the ruling princes could implement universal suffrage without fearing loss of control. But Prussia, and to a lesser extent in Hannover and Saxony, resisted the calls for change, and any attempt to use the federal government as a vehicle to impose such change was thwarted by the Reichsrat.

The conflict became acute in the mid-1910s as the export-dependent economy was hit hard by the depression (it would reach its low point in 1918) and the Reichsrat vetoed many of the emergency relief measures proposed in the Reichstag. The period between 1914 and 1919 in Germany’s three largest states is often called the “Labor War,” with increasingly militant trade unions engaging in strikes and sometimes pitched battles with the police and the industrialists’ security forces. This period also saw increasing difficulties for the immigrant population, who were seen as working-class agitators by the state governments even while many workers considered them competitors for jobs.

Nobody would really win the labor war: the unions weren’t strong enough to overcome the police, but the Hanseatic cities and princely states, worried that the militancy of Prussian labor would spread to their jurisdictions, added to the pressure for reform. Hannover’s adoption of universal suffrage in 1917, and the election of a liberal state government the following year, deprived Prussia and Saxony of key support in the Reichsrat, and in early 1919, the Prussian government reluctantly agreed to end the three-class system and take a less confrontational stance toward the unions. The immediate threat receded, but neither side regarded the conflict as finished…

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Anna Lindh-Malmström, Scandinavia and the Beginnings of Neo-Feudalism (Stockholm: Bonniers, 1987)

… The “Postponed Crisis” of 1911 nearly finished the Swedish-Norwegian personal union, but it would transform the union instead – and with it, all Scandinavia and even all the world.

The crisis’ catalyst was a renewed attempt to change the terms of trade between the two countries, a measure that had first been proposed in 1895 but was shelved due to the exigencies of the wartime economy. The issue remained dormant during the postwar prosperity that both nations shared, but as the global economy began to deteriorate in the early 1910s, it again became a factor. As Sweden moved to protect its farmers and manufacturers from foreign competition – which included Norwegian competition – the Norwegian Storting, increasingly dominated by rural populists, debated the imposition of retaliatory tariffs or even severing the union altogether.

The Storting’s approach was accentuated by its long-standing dispute with Sweden over control of foreign policy, which had traditionally been conducted by the Swedish Foreign Ministry on behalf of both countries. Many of the Norwegian populists saw an independent foreign policy as integral to local control of the economy, and the appointment of a Norwegian foreign minister after the 1911 election was a direct challenge to the Swedish crown. When the Swedish king refused to swear in the new government until the proposed foreign minister stood down, matters stood at a knife edge. The Storting reappointed the government by an overwhelming vote and resolved that the king would forfeit the throne if he refused again to swear it in; Swedish parliamentary leaders declared that all options, including war, would be on the table if the Storting continued on its course.

Catastrophe was averted through the efforts of the Swedish and Norwegian prime ministers, both of whom viewed the escalating crisis with alarm and had no desire to go where their more eager subordinates were leading. In June 1911, after a month of secret negotiations, they presented a resolution to their respective governments. In broad outline, it was a straightforward compromise: the common market between Sweden and Norway would be restored in exchange for Norway giving up its claim to an independent foreign ministry. But the Swedish foreign ministry would also be abolished; going forward, foreign policy would henceforth be conducted by a “crown ministry” that was part of neither country’s government. This ministry would be headed by a Swede, but Sweden and Norway would have equal representation on its governing board, and each embassy would include a Norwegian-interest section staffed by a consul appointed by the Norwegian government.

There was considerable opposition to the prime ministers’ plan, but with war as the alternative, the more moderate members of both parliaments embraced it. The king, eager for a way to climb down, gave it his seal of approval, which swung many waverers behind it, and on July 18, both parliaments voted in favor. The new Norwegian government, minus the foreign minister, was sworn in the following day, and the union was saved.

The impact of the crisis might have ended there if not for the lessons drawn from it by a member of the Swedish negotiating team, Nils Branting. In 1913, Branting, a junior member of the prime minister’s staff, published an essay entitled A New Paradigm of Sovereignty, which argued that national sovereignty was a package of rights rather than an indivisible unity, and that these rights could be delegated downward to autonomous regions or upward to multi-national entities. More than that, he argued that such delegations should be made, and that they were a possible answer to the conundrums of nationalism and collective security.

Among the more controversial parts of Branting’s thesis was his view of constitutional monarchy as a means of splitting national sovereignty. He argued that a monarch, as an apolitical figure, could embody several levels of sovereignty at once in a way that a political body could not, and pointed to the Swedish-Norwegian resolution and Wilhelm II’s role as Duke of Alsace-Lorraine as proof that a personal union could bridge the gaps between national aspirations in a way that did not involve conquest or dispossession. His many critics would refer to his prescriptions as “neo-feudalism,” a label he adopted, and which he gave effect four years later when he arranged for the Gustav V to take oath as Count of Åland and secure autonomy for that archipelago within the Finnish kingdom. He is also believed to have been influential in the devolution of Iceland and the Faroe Islands as kingdoms under the Danish crown in 1918, with the latter becoming the world’s smallest nominally independent nation.

A question often raised is whether Branting’s views were influenced by his connection to the Carlsenist settlements in East Africa; two of his uncles were among the early settlers, and Branting himself visited the Rift Valley and Zanzibar as a young man. There is nothing in his thesis that can be directly connected to Carlsenist doctrine, but one cannot help but wonder if he drew inspiration from the Omani empire’s own quasi-modernist feudalism or from Carlsen’s emphasis on personal unity as a means of combining nations and races…

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Stjepan Pavletić, The Habsburg Lands in the Twentieth Century (Vienna: Karl Linder, 2005)

… Well before the voting took place in 1903, the result of Austria’s referendum on unification with Germany was a foregone conclusion. The German volunteers who fought for Austria in the Burgenland conflict did much to reduce the bitterness of the war, but Austrians still remembered that Wilhelm II had wanted to conquer them and that Franz Joseph had given his life to maintain their independence. By the early 1900s, Austria had also begun to see itself as an alternative to Germany, a rural and conservative nation of yeomen which preserved its traditional ways of life better than its industrial northern neighbor. It was sometimes hard to reconcile this view with the existence of cosmopolitan and creative Vienna, of which Austrians were also proud, but the perception was real nevertheless, and it contributed to nearly all major parties calling for a “no” vote and to the referendum being disapproved by 86 percent of the voters.

Austria also adjusted surprisingly well to its new role as a kingdom of no greater status than the other two Habsburg lands. Some nationalists did lament the loss of Austria’s empire, but more remembered how much trouble it had been to juggle the demands of the various nationalities, and they decided that it was better to be a small, but prosperous and firmly German, nation than the master of an empire always on the verge of falling apart. Again, polyglot Vienna was something of an exception, but Viennese tolerance became much easier to accept when the minorities were no longer potential separatists but citizens praised for their wartime loyalty. And Vienna ensured that, no matter what it may have lost politically, Austria would always be the cultural center of the Habsburg lands, and that it would be the mecca for Slovenes and Dalmatians eager to take part in the vibrant music and art scene of the 1900s and 1910s.

Carniola, too, prospered; it was another conservative yeoman nation, and now that it was an autonomous kingdom, it was fully reconciled to Habsburg rule. It was Dalmatia that was the odd one out. Dalmatia was the poorest of the Three Lands, and it also had revanchist claims over the coastal cities that were Italy’s prizes of war as well as a sizable contingent that wanted to join Hungarian Croatia. The Hungarian civil war, and the repression carried out by the nominally autonomous Croatian government after the war’s end, dampened enthusiasm for such a union, and the parties that supported it never came close to a majority of votes, but the unionists increasingly carried out assassinations and terror bombings, and there were frequent allegations that Hungary supported them…

… On June 28, 1914, a blast ripped through a theater in Dalmatia’s capital, killing 127 people including the ambassadors from Austria and Carniola. The bomber was quickly caught and proved to have connections to three members of the Hungarian regency council. Hungary refused a demand for extradition and reparations, mobilizing its army instead; internal papers made public after the fact show that a majority faction on the regency council wanted a short victorious war in order to distract the public from the worsening economy. Efforts at mediation broke down, and on July 5, the parliaments of all three Habsburg kingdoms declared war on Hungary; at dawn the following day, the Hungarian army crossed into Dalmatia, hoping to present the unprepared Habsburgs with a fait accompli.

To say the least, things did not go as the regents had planned. The Dalmatian army fought a valiant rearguard action in the mountains, and the Hungarian advance bogged down. A Hungarian attempt to surround Fiume and cut off the rail connection to Carniola and Austria failed, and armored trains of Slovene soldiers quickly began arriving to reinforce the Dalmatian resistance. And the Habsburgs received support from unexpected quarters as Serbia and Romania, wary of the regency council’s revanchism, threatened to enter the fight on the Habsburg side unless Hungary withdrew. The Ottomans also preferred a divided Croatia, and although they didn’t offer to join the fight, they agreed to supply the Habsburg forces through Bosnia. The Hungarian war effort fell apart quickly, and by mid-October, Hungary quit Dalmatia, formally recognized the prewar border and agreed to pay reparations for the bombing.

The aftermath of the fiasco would see a coup by the minority faction among the regents, the replacement of the regency council by a single leader bearing the title “head of state,” and the restoration of a limited parliament, but the cost of the war would cripple Hungary for years to come. The consequences for Austria would, unfortunately, be hardly less catastrophic. Austria had always struggled with its wartime debt obligations, and with the cost of even a brief war added to the general economic downturn, it was forced into default by the end of 1914. This would be the last default among the Great War-era powers, but it would deepen the crisis throughout the world, and it would be most of a decade before the Habsburg kingdoms recovered. In the later 1910s and 1920s, “Austrian tolerance” would struggle to maintain itself…

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Hans Tieleman, A Modern History of the Low Countries (Amsterdam: Schouten, 1945)

… Belgium in the 1900s and 1910s was a stable, if repressive, country. By 1905, the improvisations of the postwar era had solidified into an ideology in which the Church, the military, industry and labor were all organs of a corporate state. The Church and the industrialists, however, were definitely first among equals. Independent labor organizations and confrontational tactics were outlawed, and the state-sponsored unions emphasized a cooperative relationship with business. The clergy and the industrialists also dominated the board that vetted parliamentary candidates – all political parties were banned, and only approved candidates could run as independents.

The heavy state censorship and cultural repression, both of liberal Catholics and the country’s Jewish minority, led many to leave for Paris, Amsterdam and elsewhere. But the state ideology’s emphasis on solidarity also helped cushion Belgium from the worst effects of the 1910s depression. The ex-Legion influence in the government and business fostered a paternalistic attitude toward employees, and although many concerns reduced wages, social pressure ensured against mass layoffs in most cases, and the state stepped in to keep key employers from failing. The Belgian government also followed Germany and France, albeit for very different reasons, in organizing sports and country weekends for urban workers and their families.

The relative stability of the Belgian economy would help the “Belgian model” compete with liberalism and socialism in the Netherlands, Iberia and parts of the former Habsburg empire. In the 1917 Dutch election, the Catholic Unity Party won 20 percent of the vote, eclipsing the Catholic Liberals and winning most of the “Catholic seats” in the consociational cabinet. The performance of another Belgian-aligned party in the Portuguese election of 1919 would be even more successful…

… The “Ethical Policy” in the Dutch East Indies, as the Dutch governments called it, would prove more enduring than the “partnership raj” in India. Not only was it enshrined in a formal agreement, but both sides had endured years of bitter warfare to reach that accord, and as such, neither was willing to disregard it lightly. The santri teachers who had been the heart of the rebellion now turned their formidable energies toward supporting the agreement. This was particularly true of the jajis who had mobilized the peasant women and who now held high status in rural Javanese society; women in general would become the backbone of the new order, and would have an important place in education and even in local government.

The santri prospered during the 1900s and 1910s with the end to racial discrimination in business and professional licensing, with many holding municipal office and sending their children to study in the Netherlands. Relaxation of travel restrictions also brought many peasants and tribesmen from rural Java and Sumatra to the cities, aiding in the spread of goods and ideas. The Minangkabau people of West Sumatra, with an established tradition of sending young men abroad to find work, traveled to Batavia and the Malay cities in increasing numbers, and although they distrusted the strictness of the santri, brought reformist ideas home when they returned from their years of wandering…

… In the outlying princely states of Borneo and Sulawesi, the Dutch honored their wartime arrangements, under which the rulers would have broad autonomy in exchange for preferential trade and resource exploitation rights. As in India, however, the rulers’ arrangement with the colonial power did not shield them from challenges by their own subjects. By the mid-1910s, the reformist doctrines of the santri and the Bugis were joined by the independent Filipino sultanates, and an increasing number of people in the towns demanded more internal democracy and called for a regional federation…
 
So... summing up, Germany's going Democratic-Socialist, Hungary and Austria is in for tough times, a new form of government takes hold in Belgium, and a new idea of national sovereignty will change the world forever.

What will ever go wrong? :rolleyes:
 
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Sulemain

Banned
Belgium going corporatist, France going to the far-left, Austrian romantic nationalism, German social democracy, I can see these colliding in a hideous manner in the future.

The post war immigration into Germany reminds me of post-WW2 Britain, as it happens.
 
June 28, 1914, eh? I see what you did there.

Interesting developments across Europe. What does Poland's government look like? I imagine that the flow of workers to Germany is starving whatever industry Poland and Slovakia have of labor.

Also, are the laborers moving to Germany primarily immigrants or migrants? Because if there's any flow back to the motherlands, that could cement German as the trade and business language of Europe.

Any movement of people within the Zollverein to the colonies? You cannot deny us Transylvanian Barotseland! :p
 
So, at a hunch, I'd say there's about 2/3 to 3/4 the push to switch over to English in this world.

I'd say you're about right - the greater breadth of the British Empire is more than made up for by reduced American cultural dominance, especially since the British influence on some parts of the empire (e.g., southeast Asia) will be rather superficial. The question is whether 2/3 to 3/4 of OTL's push is enough to be a critical mass. There are advantages to having a single language which is understood by educated people everywhere and which can be used by businessmen, technicians and academics throughout the world, so once that critical mass is reached in favor of a certain language, I'd expect it to become a global standard fairly quickly.

I could see a couple of possible competitors, but none of truly worldwide scope. As Roberto says, German will be a language of wider communication in much of central Africa, and also in much of central Europe: it will be what a Pole, a Finn, a Slovene and a Dutchman will speak when they meet each other in Prague. It will also be an important language in engineering and science. But it really won't have much presence outside the Zollverein and the German colonies. Likewise, as Badshah says, Arabic (presumably either classical or some modern standard) could become a language of wider communication throughout the Islamic world, possibly even overtaking Turkish in prestige within the Ottoman Empire, but its use outside the Muslim world would be limited.

Maybe English will become a world language, but not so much as in OTL - it could be a language of big business, diplomacy and academia, but but not mass culture or tourism. The mass-culture niche would be taken by several regional languages: German and Arabic are obvious candidates, as are Spanish, French, Russian, Chinese, Japanese and Hindustani (for at least northern India). Africa would have several regional languages of wider communication: English in South Africa; German in the Congo and the German colonies; Portuguese in the Angola-Katanga-Mozambique belt; Arabic and Swahili in the Omani empire; Amharic and Russian in Ethiopia; Sudanic and either French or English in West Africa, depending on where one is; and Gullah/Krio among the Coasters.

So... summing up, Germany's going Democratic-Socialist, Hungary and Austria is in for tough times, a new form of government takes hold in Belgium, and a new idea of national sovereignty will change the world forever.

What will ever go wrong? :rolleyes:

The new paradigm of national sovereignty has been building for a while - Salonika, Alsace-Lorraine, the gradualist South African union, the fringes of the Ottoman Empire, Turkestan, the International Court of Arbitration, the mess that is the Congo, and now Scandinavia have all contributed to the assault on the Westphalian system. Branting is simply the first person to systematize what's happening and to develop a political theory around it.

The fact that he is first will give him influence, but many will disagree with his "neo-feudalism" thesis, especially since unbundled sovereignty will work just fine in republics. The most eager proponents of his theory will be monarchists looking for an argument that kings still have something unique and irreplaceable to contribute to twentieth-century politics; others will be quite a bit less romantic-medieval about the whole thing.

Belgium going corporatist, France going to the far-left, Austrian romantic nationalism, German social democracy, I can see these colliding in a hideous manner in the future.

Belgium or Austria deciding to take on France or Germany would be a very one-sided war. The potential for catastrophe would be in a French-German war or some kind of grand alliance, and neither seems in the cards: France and Germany have settled their border disputes, and they're both mainly concerned with internal matters.

None of these countries are in steady state, though, and they won't necessarily have the same political alignment a decade from now, which could change things for the better or the worse.

The post war immigration into Germany reminds me of post-WW2 Britain, as it happens.

That was one of my primary models, and it's causing many of the same tensions. Maybe some nationalist politician will make a Flüsse aus Blut speech. :p

June 28, 1914, eh? I see what you did there.

I thought about having the Croatian terrorists blow up Franz Ferdinand, but decided against it. On the other hand, the war did end before Christmas.

Interesting developments across Europe. What does Poland's government look like? I imagine that the flow of workers to Germany is starving whatever industry Poland and Slovakia have of labor.

Poland is a liberal monarchy, with a Polish king rather than a German one but with a foreign policy very closely coordinated with Berlin. There's a fair amount of minority nationalism, especially among Ukrainians, and as in OTL, different governments blow hot and cold on the issue. There's a fairly strong socialist movement centered in the cities, strong conservative parties and a growing Catholic Liberal movement.

And yes, Poland and Slovakia are primarily agricultural countries (Poland has some light industry in Warsaw and Krakow) and are likely to stay that way as long as they're integrated into the German economy. They have the potential to be prosperous agricultural states, though, and remittances help.

Also, are the laborers moving to Germany primarily immigrants or migrants?

Both. Many of those who come for a few years end up staying, and vice versa. But as stated above, German will spread into the Zollverein countries regardless, because of its usefulness in business.

Any movement of people within the Zollverein to the colonies? You cannot deny us Transylvanian Barotseland! :p

I doubt there'd be many Transylvanians in Africa (the Hungarian exiles in Buganda notwithstanding), but I bet there are Polish and Czech engineers in the Copperbelt mining towns.
 
Interlude: a tree grows in the Copperbelt

Ndola, Kazembe
May 1916

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The office behind the schoolroom looked like it always did. There was a forlorn plant on the windowsill, competing for space with books of physics and metallurgy. The table was cluttered with drawings of fabulous machines and buildings that soared above the woodlands like a fantasy, along with brushes, ink and pens. On the wall were two crude paintings: one of a Luba village at morning, and one of a young girl who looked strikingly like the woman at the desk.

She rose from her chair to greet me, favoring the bad leg that she’d got courtesy of a Russian torturer during the Polish rising. The scar that ran from her left ear down to her shoulder came from the same war – a firefight in the streets of Warsaw, one of the many battles that had no name.

I waved her down, but she stood up anyway and extended a hand. I took it, shifting the books I was carrying into one arm.

“Put these on the table?”

“If you can find room. Otherwise, put it by the window.”

Another glance at the table persuaded me that there wasn’t room, so I went to the windowsill and piled the books on top of those that were already there. They were physics textbooks as always; Maria had been having me order them for her for years, because the company’s shipping arrangements were quite a bit faster than the mail. Before that, when she still worked for the company, she’d ordered them herself.

I’d heard some of her story back in those days: she’d been saving to go to the Sorbonne when the war started, and she’d lost it all, along with her sister and most of the use of a leg, in the partisans. A French university hadn’t been an option when she came home, and the Technische Hochschule had been the only German one that took women at the time, so she’d become an engineer. But theoretical physics had always been her first love.

“What do I owe you?” she was asking.

“Don’t worry about it. Consider them a down payment. The company needs a bigger bridge on the Chililabombwe spur.”

“Oh?” She looked interested now. She didn’t get many chances to design things now that she’d left the company. It was a wonder she’d got any chances at all – she was the only woman Laumann had ever hired, and he’d never have done it if she hadn’t been so damned useful. It wasn’t a coincidence that the smelter we all used now was called a Skłodowska converter, or that she was a genius at finding rare minerals. She was the one who’d found the emerald deposits.

And in spite of all that, she was teaching at the Realschule now. I’d never asked, but she must have got tired of people looking at her like she had two heads. I’d done it often enough in the early days.

“I’ve brought specifications,” I said, realizing I’d left her question hanging much too long. “Maps. We’ll reopen your account to hire labor.”

“How long will it take? I’d like to go out tomorrow after classes and test the soil.”

“Maybe the day after. Your usual rates?”

“What? Oh, yes.” I could see she was already planning; when she was in that state, I could probably get her to do the work for free.

Maybe, when she was in that state, I could dare. “Dinner tonight?”

She looked up at me sharply; evidently, she wasn’t as abstracted as she seemed. She was on the verge of shaking her head. But then she said, “why not? I’ll still be here at seven.”

“I’ll see you then.” I took a last look at the books I’d left by the window. “A bit elementary for you, aren’t they?”

“Oh, they’re not for me.”

*******

1e2bAfN.jpg

I sat for an hour after Gregor left, going over the maps and making preliminary sketches. I did need to do the testing, but I had a good idea of what the soil around there was like, and it would be good if I could give them some tentative cost estimates and drawing.

After a while I looked up and saw that Ketiwe was sitting by the table. She always came at this time, and I should have had some tea ready. But she didn’t complain; she never did. She gave me a shy “Hallo, Pani Maria” instead, and walked around to where she could see what I was doing.

She looked at the drawings carefully and made some notes with a pencil. I could see she was checking my math, which was always good practice; she’d need the same kind of math for physics.

“Did I get it right?”

“I’m not done yet, Pani Maria. But it looks good.”

“You can finish later. I got some more books for you. They’re in that pile on the windowsill.”

“Thank you!” She ran to the window like the fourteen-year-old she was, and turned the books around to where she could see the titles. The Elements, I heard her read. I knew that was the one she’d notice. Atomic theory was her fascination, as it had once been mine.

She read and I sketched for a companionable hour, and then I made tea and we talked about what she’d just learned. The conversation drifted to architecture, which she’d taken an interest in since coming to school, and she brought out some new drawings to show me. They were still amateurish, but she was getting better – her latest design for the meeting-hall she’d been working on, with asymmetric lines and a slate roof that suggested thatching, wasn’t bad at all.

“Very modern?” she asked.

“Very modern. Maybe too modern for anyone to build just yet…”

“To build the future, we have to imagine it, don’t we?”

“I hadn’t realized Jules Verne was one of my students.” But they were all Vernes, all the ones that came here – in this place where everything was changing so fast, people in the villages could see the future too. Ketiwe wanted to study physics, but there were others who wanted to be doctors like my lost Bronisława, and many, many who wanted to be engineers. They were the reason I was teaching at the Realschule at a hundred and fifty marks a month rather than working for Laumann at five hundred.

Ketiwe’s story was like many of the others. Her father was a miner who’d come up from Barotseland, and once he’d realized what his daughter could do, he’d given everything to see that she was educated – he’d valued that above marrying her off, which was more than could be said of many in Europe and Africa. But he’d died last year of the Congo fever, and the aunt she lived with now wasn’t as tolerant, and getting her into the Humboldt University had become my project. She’d be worth a hundred bridges to Chililabombwe.

“Let’s talk about your physics books some more,” I said. “You’ll need to know what’s in them, to take your tests for the university.”

“When do you think I can take them?”

“You could pass them now, I think, but you’re too young. Give it a year or two – you’ll have your diploma by then, and you’ll be able to make your own way in the city.”

All at once she looked hesitant. “Do you think I can really go?”

“Of course you can. Women can study there now. They even have societies of women students…”

“I wish they’d had that when you were a girl.”

If they had, we’d probably never have met. But I didn’t say that. I blessed her instead, and laid The Elements out in front of us.

*******

Wo93ook.jpg

We sat together with the book, just the two of us, and Pani Maria pointed out things for me to explain. She smiled at my answers, and even more so at my questions. “Half of science is knowing what questions to ask,” she always said.

It was nice here. Pani Maria’s office was a quiet place, a friendly place, not like the noise of the classroom during the day or the bustle of home. It was good to come here when I was done with my chores and read together. My father had been so proud that I could read, and I could see the same pride in Pani Maria’s eyes.

There was a knock on the door, and I looked up and realized that the sun had gone down. She realized the same thing, and I helped her stand so she could answer the door.

The man outside didn’t wait. It was Herr Linder from the Laumann company, and he was wearing his Sunday clothes, and he’d stopped to pick some flowers. “Käthe is here,” he said – he always pronounced my name the German way. “Maria, are you ready for dinner?”

“In a minute, Gregor.” There was something in the way she looked at him that I hadn’t seen before. Maybe it was that she was looking at him the way he’d always done at her.

She picked up her hat where she’d left it on the table, and made her way toward the door. “You look hungry, Ketiwe,” she said. “It’s been a long day. You should come…”

“You’ve found a chaperone?” Herr Linder asked, smiling, but as he did, she finished, “and we’ll make it a family.”
 
Great little interlude- Marie Curie teaching science at a German school in the African Copperbelt! It's little things like these that make this TL so great.
 

Sulemain

Banned
Aah, way to make me smile JE. Would I be correct in understand more women are at university ITTL then at the same point in OTL?
 
To extrapulate, a Polish woman marrying a German man and adopting an African girl?

Man, why could'nt the real world have progressed so much before the 80s.
 
So... This timeline's Marie Curie:

- fought in the streets of Warsaw during the Great War,

- got tortured by the Russians as a result, to the point of having near-permanent damage to one leg,

- got into a different university and studied engineering,

- got involved in some German-African company right after,

- found emerald deposits and a new way of smelting,

- and is now dating a German from said company (care to tell who he is, BTW?) and tutors African kids?

:eek: She should write a memoir about this. Seriously. Anyone who has been through such a life deserves to be remembered.
 
Great little interlude- Marie Curie teaching science at a German school in the African Copperbelt!

Her two-years-younger ATL-sister, anyway. Given her family's association with Polish nationalism, it seems reasonable that she and her surviving sister would be caught up in the uprising during the Great War. Afterward, she went to the Copperbelt because it was the only place where she could get a job.

Aah, way to make me smile JE. Would I be correct in understand more women are at university ITTL then at the same point in OTL?

Quite a few more - in France mainly, but also in Germany, Britain and of course West Africa.

To extrapulate, a Polish woman marrying a German man and adopting an African girl?

Man, why could'nt the real world have progressed so much before the 80s.

There were plenty of Polish-German marriages in OTL, and any adoption of Ketiwe would be informal given that she still has blood relatives. Maria will certainly arrange for Ketiwe to be looked after when she goes to Berlin.

Malê Rising: A World of "Don't Mind Me, I'm Fine, There's Just Something In My Eye, That's All..."

If it's any consolation, I felt the same way writing it.

She should write a memoir about this. Seriously. Anyone who has been through such a life deserves to be remembered.

She may - or maybe someone else will do so for her.

For the record, the machine she invented is basically the Peirce-Smith converter, and Gregor isn't a counterpart of anyone who existed in OTL.
 

Sulemain

Banned
If this TL doesn't end with everyone in the world linking hands together in peace and harmony, I will be disappointed.

Are those hideous miscengrenation laws less widespread/even exsistant in the US ITTL?
 
That was really sweet - and very nicely written.

Do you have any plans to 'publish' this, JE? Maybe not in dead tree format, but give it its own website, maybe?
 
Here's hoping that Ketiwe hasn't got the "Congo Fever" from her parents. The way that the world is almost as globalized as our own is really quite interesting. Assuming that the trend continues, 2013 of TTL will be certainly more of a global society than our own, taking into account all of these immigrants to various places and the steady breakdown of the Westphalian system.
 
If this TL doesn't end with everyone in the world linking hands together in peace and harmony, I will be disappointed.

And the biggest miracle of it is that it isn't made of miracles, not if we define them as things that don't happen in the natural order of things. This world of broader hopes and more vivid dreams is made of the same atoms and molecules our own is made of, and every element of it that seems madly fanciful comes out of the pages of OTL history. "Oh, a community of Muslims where a bunch of women, young and old, married and unmarried, rich and poor, go around teaching both girls and boys to read and are authoritative leaders of the Islamic Umma--oh, what a Utopian dream of a feminist Islam...no, what, in OTL 18th and 19th century West Africa you say...:confused::eek::cool::D!" If these are miracles, then human beings are all born wonders. If history, as Lenin says, begins where there are millions--and every one of those millions of people can burn this brightly--no wonder the horizon glows with wonder.

It was the foreseen prospects of a world like this, where some colonial mining town in the Congo jungle has Marie Curie's ATL sister not only managing to burn so brightly herself but bringing out the light of dozens of dozens of other human diamonds, that made me so crassly enthused for the high tech wonders of this timeline. All our progress is the result of human potential being actualized, and so much has been so horribly wasted. What if we just wasted a bit less of it? The whole thing ought to run faster, more smoothly, with more shoulders to the wheel, with fewer being ground under by it. And in a world blessed by the absence of yet another global war of the strongest against the strongest, less should be burned up--and this is one where not only is that the case but we can see the institutions being built, brick by brick, to specifically work to prevent conflict where they can, and alleviate it when they can't.

Are those hideous miscengrenation laws less widespread/even exsistant in the US ITTL?

Ah, to speak of one of many devils!:p

I was thinking about this several posts back; where some ATL person remarked how unique it was that Italy's religious (Catholic) party should be so leftist. Maybe it was unique that they had so little counterpart on the Right, but it has been par for the course, almost the signature of the timeline in fact, that religion and progressivism in human relations on every scale have been so often hand in hand here.

And I wondered, in the religious context--we see how progressivism "infects," as a frightened reactionary might put it, Islamic societies and now Catholic ones, and in Orthodox Christianity and among various 19th century new branches of Christendom like the Carlsenists in Scandinavia and Africa and the Mormons in the US (and Africa!) and yet other new denominations forming in Central and East Asia...what about older, more mainstream Protestantism? Well, who in the world (OTL) combines nominal Protestantism with serious, culturally widespread religious passion? That largely boils down to the English speaking world, Britain and the USA, and a few others like the Boers of South Africa--and in post-WWII generations a whole groundswell of converts to evangelical Christianity in many "colonial" societies--including Latin America nowadays. But this new spurt of Protestant evangelism grows out of American, and to some extent British, roots. How that kind of religiousity evolves in Britain is beyond my guess, but I gave some thought to mainstream Protestantism in the USA--and especially in hindsight, from a post-20th century, that's the American South I'm looking at.

And in this world where religion and secular progressivism so often go hand in hand, what has been becoming of the mainstream denominations of what we OTL call the "Bible Belt?" Both Methodism and the Baptists began, in the USA in general and in the South in particular, as radical cults of the "Great Awakenings" and prided themselves in not being mainstream. Both began welcoming converts (everyone was in some sense a convert after all) from all levels of society--but especially the poor--and even all races. Black people preached and testified to white ones. Only gradually, as these new, radical, antiestablishmentarian denominations became the numerically dominant and newly mainstream, did doctrines and practices shift to freeze out those who once were the very living blood of the newly revived faith.

We know that, literally in spite of black self-liberation in the Civil War (and before of course) the majority of southern states proceeded, as per OTL, to enact Jim Crow laws anyway, the legal integument of the strong forces of racial exploitation and the fear and hatred the guilt of that engendered. There can be no doubt ITTL every monstrosity of racism ever dreamed up OTL has its counterpart here, and indeed the law in some places goes beyond where it needed or dared to go OTL in some matters, such as legal censorship for instance. So no doubt at all anti-miscegenation laws are on the books in many, probably at some point the overwhelming majority, of states.

And unless Jonathan has specifically said otherwise they might be even in South Carolina, supported perhaps by some people of African descent as much as by those denying any--I hope not, I hope that well-known examples of the folly of pride in pure lineages countervailed an understandable passion to proudly end generations of unspoken abuse with legal hard lines enforced by both sides. But that might have been an easy point to pass with the assent of solid majorities of both sides of the black/white divide, never mind if the best among both of them stood with some of the worst in appealing to erase the line.

But although Jim Crow was OTL and here a machine to not only re-enchain the African-"tainted" peoples of the South but also to bamboozle and manipulate the majority of poorer white people as well, in that function it's had to operate in a much more challenging environment, politically speaking. In the OTL South, it was generally enough to keep control of the Democratic party and others could usually go to the devil. That doesn't work in post-1890 USA in this timeline! All communities and sectors are up for grabs politically.

In this context, I think that while some Southerners will become atheists (an old Southern tradition!:p) others will shake up their congregations, recalling the old radical roots of now-respectable Methodist and Baptist and other fire-eating, camp-revival creeds. They will split, with some congregations clinging to the political quietism that had served the slave-owning days well, others reviving the spirit of questioning that had first proposed and enacted into law the principle of freedom of religion on this continent in the first place.

And some of these revived congregations--by no means all, or a majority at first--will include, as the founding revivals of their denominations had, people of all races. This will reflect the reality that in the competitive political sphere white people and black will sometimes find themselves allied--ironically not just the poor in solidarity with each other, but some communities might find it behooves the interest of the better-off whites to cultivate the sanctity of the property of some better-off blacks, and even to work openly with them.:p

Mixed-race church congregations are quite likely to be something prohibited by the letter of the law in many places, perhaps by the 1910s not just in the South either. It was the sort of thing that pre-Civil War Southern laws routinely sought to forbid. But in the context of living religion in the South, the monstrosity of a nation--or state--that fancies itself "Christian" setting up and perpetuating such a division in the matter of salvation of immortal souls that so flies in the face of the elementary message of the Gospels must show up, in this topsy-turvy context, as the sin it would be.

Aha, the conservatives might mutter darkly, as they have with such effect overall--if you have mixed races in the same church, in the same pews every Sunday (or Saturday, whatever...far be it from them to ban Millerites after all!) it will only be a matter of time before you have mixed--relationships. That was a trump card they could play to put the kibosh on the whole thing OTL.

Well it surely will be a political hot potato all right. What makes it hotter, not cooler, is that of course mixed-race relationships of one kind or another, often blatantly exploitive ones, have been the reality in mixed-race America all along. The radical thing would be to acknowledge and bless them!

I think that ITTL there will be more opportunity, earlier, in more places including in the deep south, to challenge the orthodoxy of racial separatism, and that sooner rather than later it will "go nuclear" as it were in grasping the nettle of acknowledging and sanctioning interracial relationships, meaning that miscegenation laws should go to the devil along with any laws preventing the races to gather together in worship--and that is pretty much the axe to the whole trunk of all doctrines of racial apartheid right there.

(Well, just abolishing Jim Crow laws legally isn't that, necessarily, if de facto segregation along geographical, neighborhood lines is still a norm and is still enforced by strong social sanctions against this kind of private mixing--that is still the case here in the OTL USA. I suppose ITTL if it were taken to 2013 there might still be some stubborn outposts of de facto apartheid here and there in the USA. But I also suppose that the "norm" of separation would be more strongly challenged and flouted ITTL much earlier and it would be much weaker by say TTLs 1980 than it was on the whole here.)

I don't expect it to happen quietly or gradually--there will be quiet and gradual and perhaps slow evolution of attitudes going on, but that will be punctuated by earthquakes of drama that will shake the nation. Jim Crow will not go quietly--but more people will fight to get rid of it, in various particular incarnations here and there, even if it means a hard and perhaps fatal fight.

The legal concept of "miscegenation" should be dead sometime before the OTL US Supreme Court struck it down in the late 1960s. But maybe not long before--OTOH I think it will start being attacked and eroded long before such a movement could get going OTL, and will be substantially weakened and called into question during years when it was actually spreading and being more tightly enforced OTL.

And Christian fundamentalists in the South will probably be as involved in tearing it down as they were in building it up.

Thanks to the legacy of Abacar!

Peace be upon him!
 
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