Malê Rising

Don't forget that the Persian Gulf coast of what is now Saudi Arabia (al-Hasa province of the Ottoman Empire then) has a large and historically deep majority of Twelver Shi'ites, unlike much of the rest of the Peninsula.
In this sense, that area is fairly apart from Najd (and actually closer to lower Iraq for most of its history). IOTL, the Saudis managed to exploit the weakness of the Ottoman Empire after the war with Italy to take over the area (it was strategically useful to them even if nobody knew about oil there in 1913) but ITTL, I think that there is no reason to think that the Ottomans would concede any more autonomy than it was in place before. The Central Arabian powers in this context are WORSE than the Ottomans in the context of TTL from thhe perspective of local elites, so they'd probably pick the option of increased autonomy under a closer allegiance to Stamboul than Ha'il has. That would likely mean a new local player when oil emerges a factor, a player with significant outside connections (Persia, although there is historically very little love lost between the two sides of the Gulf; they have serious trouble about agreeing on the NAME of the Gulf IOTL in 2013 AD, for instance).
 
Might some outside force - the British in the Trucial States, for instance - be interested in backing the Sauds' comeback, or possibly promoting a dark-horse candidate of their own (a minor Bani Khalid sheikh or Omani prince)?

I think that, since the British Empire shall undergo major changes in the near-future, placing a candidate or backing a house won't come until the mid-20's at least, and by that time a lot could have changed in the Ottoman Empire (increased immigrants and all). Also, what Falecius said; the locals (non-bedouins) may be more willing to accept Ottoman rule over the established/establishing houses, and one mustn't discount Persia in all of this, seeing that most of the Gulf populations are Shi'as.

At best I could see the Wahhabis taking back Riyadh, but that's as far as it could go.
 
Interlude: My dear Armin

Salonika, April 1915

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Arthur Conan Doyle had visited the Balkans as a child, almost half a century before. Salonika had already been a city then, but a small one, and most of the stevedores and sailors had called it “Thessaloniki.” A few of them still did, but they were far outnumbered by the more recent arrivals, the Jews who had turned Salonika from a small city to a big one and who’d put their stamp on every part of it. Even the Greeks and Turks who worked alongside them now looked and spoke a little like Jews themselves.

Doyle, making his way down the gangplank to the pier, found it vaguely disconcerting. He was a man of the world, of course, and no stranger to Jews; he’d known them in many of the cities he’d lived and visited. But in those places, Jews did their best to blend in with the majority, or else stayed mostly in their own neighborhoods. Here, the Jews were the majority to which their neighbors blended. It wasn’t a bad thing, necessarily, but it… just wasn’t the way things were supposed to work.

And the Jews! Doyle was past the cranes and warehouses of the docklands now, and into the waterfront plaza. The people there were as motley an assembly as one would find in any port, and most of them looked very little like the Jew of a Scot’s or even a Londoner’s imagination. There were Hasidim in their heavy black coats and fur hats, yes; they looked familiar, but Doyle couldn’t help imagining what such clothing must feel like in this climate. The Moroccans and Tunisians were in more sensible djellabas, but they were olive-skinned and curly-haired, looking far more like Doyle’s idea of an Arab or Greek than otherwise. There were sober Ashkenazim dressed like Germans; sober Sephardim and Romaniotes dressed like rich Turks; Russians; Caucasians dressed like poor Turks; Yemenis who looked like Bedouins; even a few Ethiopians in the patterned cotton robes of their country.

It was enough to make Doyle wonder how anyone could think of Jews as a race.

He stopped in the square for a moment, unabashedly watching the people pass and listening to snatches of their conversations. The cadences of many languages drifted to his ears; he could hear Turkish, Greek, Russian, Yiddish, something that sounded like archaic Spanish, and…

“Hebrew?”

“Yes, it is.” He turned to see an amused, vaguely Balkan-looking man speaking in accented English, and all at once was deeply embarrassed.

“I’m sorry…”

“No need to be. Everyone’s like that when they first get here, me as much as anyone else. And most of us don’t stand much on formality here – maybe up on the hills, but the rest of us ignore them.”

“Oh.” Doyle exhaled in relief, and curiosity got the better of embarrassment. “I didn’t realize that people actually spoke Hebrew – I thought it was only for prayer, like church Latin.”

“If you ask the Hasidim, it is. But the Am Ehad party…”

“Am Ehad?”

“Sorry, ‘one people.’ They’re the ones who want to turn everything you see here into a single nation, with Hebrew as its common language. You can see they’ve got their work cut out for them.” Doyle’s interlocutor paused for a moment and let his eyes drift to a poster advertising an art exhibition in Turkish and Greek. “I like the sound of Hebrew, though. Maybe it’s that Hebrew’s ours, not something we borrowed from you lot, no offense meant.”

“And none taken,” Doyle answered; he was privately appalled by the other man’s crassness, but it wasn’t as if he’d made the best of starts here either. “Would you happen to know where the Kerem neighborhood is?”

“Kerem? That’s up north and a little west – I’m headed that way myself. You can follow me.”

“Thank you…”

“Yossi. Yossi Calderon.” Try and fit that into your mental geography, Yossi’s eyes taunted, but his smile was welcoming as he led Doyle onward.

They walked past the public buildings and department stores on the plaza into the winding streets of the old city, with its ancient houses converted to tenements. The natural habitat of the Jew, a fellow naval officer had said once, and maybe this time the stereotypes had some truth to them; Salonika’s population had grown faster than the available housing, and it was a crowded city even by the standards of someone who’d spent years in Singapore and Hong Kong.

The crowding seemed even worse with so many people were down on the streets, and to Doyle’s astonishment, many of them were clustered around tables. The streets were rich with the smell of fresh-baked bread, and the tables were piled high with flat crepes, cakes, lamb, and olives and roasted vegetables arranged in groups of five.

Yossi looked back at him, amusement in his eyes again. “Mimouna,” he said. “It’s a Moroccan holiday, but everyone celebrates now, and rather than inviting people in, they’ve just brought the tables out to the street.” He snagged a crepe from one of the tables, folded it around some lamb and handed it to Doyle; as he did so, a Moroccan Jewish patriarch in a djellaba and silk cap sprinkled both of them with a sprig of mint dipped in milk.

The milk was unexpected, but the lamb was surprisingly good, and Doyle suddenly realized how hungry he was.

“It’s good to see everyone getting along,” Yossi said, moving on.

“Sometimes they don’t?”

“Some idiot a month off the boat started a big fight a few days ago – he saw some Mizrahim eating rice at Passover, and said something he shouldn’t have. It would have ended there, but once the families and friends got involved, it became a matter of honor, and you know how those things are.”

“I suppose I do,” Doyle said, and in truth he’d seen many fights start over even lesser things. Put people from so many countries this close together, and you’re lucky not to have a civil war…

The neighborhood was changing now; the streets were straighter, the buildings well-constructed and modern, the stores more lavish and even some small parks and trees to break up the urban jungle. The roads were less crowded, although there was plenty of noise from the apartments and restaurants; it seemed that Salonika’s bourgeois preferred to celebrate Mimouna inside.

“Kerem’s in there,” Yossi said, and pointed across a square and past a statue of someone Doyle presumed to be a Jewish hero. “It isn’t that big – just ask someone for your street, and he’ll tell you how to get there.”

It proved a bit more complicated than that; Doyle was just starting to get a feel for the city’s layout, and he had to ask directions three times before he found his way to Gracia Nasi Street. Number 59 was a handsome stone building four stories in height, and as dusk fell, he mounted the stairs to the second floor and rang the right-hand doorbell. A moment later, the door opened, and an elderly man with Central European looks and the air of a nineteenth-century gentleman stood in front of him.

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“Monsieur Vámbéry?”

“It’s Armin Bey here. And you, I presume, are Dr. Doyle.”

“You got my letter, then?”

“I did.” The old man stepped aside, ushering Doyle through the door and into a well-kept apartment decorated with curios from the Caucasus and Central Asia. Their arrangement was eclectic but bespoke a refined taste; the furniture was sparse but well-made, and the walls were lined with books in half a dozen languages. Vámbéry stopped at a table by the window, and the two took seats facing a polished wooden centerpiece that looked more African than Turkic.

“Oh, that,” Vámbéry said, seeing where Doyle’s gaze had traveled. “That was sent to me by a correspondent of mine, a coffee and tea exporter late of the Bugandan army by way of the Honvéd and an Ottoman prison camp. Weisz, his name is. He writes me now and then about the folklore – there are some vampire legends that might interest you, actually.”

“They would indeed. I’m much more familiar with the West African stories…”

“Most certainly. I enjoyed your Firefly, and The Thief of Timbuktu was quite good as well; I hadn’t realized there were such legends on the upper Niger.”

“It isn’t widely known.”

“Then we should talk about that later. But now, I’d assume you’re hungry. The woman who comes to cook for me is away, so I thought we’d go down to Malka’s. They make the best Ashkenazi food in this part of the city; you’d swear you were in Poland, or dare I say it, Hungary. We’d be away from the Mimouna crowds, and we can discuss Transylvanian vampires, which is why you’re really here.”

“That sounds excellent – but how did you know that?”

Vámbéry thought of telling Doyle about the letter his colleague had written, which was much more detailed than his own cryptic note and which went on at length about his latest literary project. But then he decided there was no need for that; he was an old man, and he was entitled to have his fun.

“It was elementary.”
 
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Don't forget that the Persian Gulf coast of what is now Saudi Arabia (al-Hasa province of the Ottoman Empire then) has a large and historically deep majority of Twelver Shi'ites, unlike much of the rest of the Peninsula.

It is historically majority Shi'a, however IOTL that majority has been reduced with Mainstream Sunni Islam and Wahhabism making in-roads and froming local majorities and causing some tradtionally Mjaority Shi'a areas to be a mixed-population.


seeing that most of the Gulf populations are Shi'as.

Only about half at most; whilt their's the aforementioned Shi'a population in the Saudi East coast, outside of that Shi'a is only found in large numbers in Bahrain (majority), small numbers in Qatar and the UAE (10% and 15%) and a small minority in Oman, which itself is majority Ibadi, which is a seperate branch of Islam from Shi'a and Sunni.
 
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Looks like Doyle is taking the place of Bram Stoker with another writer instead embarking on Sherlock Holmes, and I love the glimpses of 1910's Salonika. How in the world would an identity be carved from all of that is beyond me, but trust someone (looking at you, Lev...) to actually try and think of something, hopefully with less bloodshed. :)

Only about half at most; whilt their's the aforementioned Shi'a population in the Saudi East coast, outside of that Shi'a is only found in large numbers in Baharin (majority), small numbers in Qatar and the UAE (10% and 15%) while their's a small minority in Oman, which itself is majority Ibadi, which is a seperate branch of Islam from Shi'a and Sunni.

Whoops, my bad. Didn't fully realize the demographics of that part of the world.
 
Please tell me that Bram Stoker is writing a series about a mysterious Count, driven from his home in Transylvania by the war and washed up in London- his fortune is running out, but he is increasingly called upon by Scotland Yard for his strange abilities to see what others don't...
 
Don't forget that the Persian Gulf coast of what is now Saudi Arabia (al-Hasa province of the Ottoman Empire then) has a large and historically deep majority of Twelver Shi'ites, unlike much of the rest of the Peninsula [...] The Central Arabian powers in this context are WORSE than the Ottomans in the context of TTL from thhe perspective of local elites, so they'd probably pick the option of increased autonomy under a closer allegiance to Stamboul than Ha'il has. That would likely mean a new local player when oil emerges a factor, a player with significant outside connections

Also, what Falecius said; the locals (non-bedouins) may be more willing to accept Ottoman rule over the established/establishing houses, and one mustn't discount Persia in all of this, seeing that most of the Gulf populations are Shi'as.

At best I could see the Wahhabis taking back Riyadh, but that's as far as it could go.

So the Porte would potentially have a hook to retain (or regain) the Gulf coast by positioning itself as the Shi'ites' protectors. This would leave the Ottomans in control of both coasts, and the bulk of the oil, while the houses of Saud and Rashid fight it out for the Nejd.

I do wonder about the Persians, though - as you and Falecius note, there's no love lost between them and the Gulf Arabs, but they do have the advantage of being Shi'ite. If Persia modernizes enough by the 1920s, it might be able to make a play. Of course, the worst-case scenario in this event would be a proxy war between Ottoman-sponsored Sunnis and Persian-sponsored Shi'ites - say, if the Porte backs a Bani Khalid chief and the Shi'ites seek Persian support for their own candidate. If the fighting gets bad enough, it could result in one or the other population becoming refugees.

The Trucial States and Oman, at least, should be largely outside this struggle.

I really liked that little interlude, especially the references to Sherlock Holmes.

Looks like Doyle is taking the place of Bram Stoker with another writer instead embarking on Sherlock Holmes

Yeah, I couldn't resist the Holmes reference.

For what it's worth, though, Vámbéry isn't going to take Doyle's OTL place; he's an ethnologist as he was in OTL. And Doyle, who is an ATL-sibling, won't precisely be Bram Stoker; his vampire stories will have much more of a mystery element. There was discussion of him beginning at post 3360 and continuing intermittently through the early 3380s, and my portrayal of him in the update follows that discussion.

I like the glimpse of Salonika.

It sounds very much like a Sicilian or Southern Italian city, a Naples almost.

I actually had a combination of Naples and South Tel Aviv in mind when imagining the center city; the middle-class neighborhoods are more North Tel Aviv.

The Kerem district, which means "vineyard" in Hebrew, is more or less in the same place as the Ampelokipoi district of OTL, which means the same thing in Greek. The layout of the city isn't much like OTL Thessaloniki, though - the harbor and parts of the old city are the same, but that's about it.

How in the world would an identity be carved from all of that is beyond me, but trust someone (looking at you, Lev...) to actually try and think of something, hopefully with less bloodshed.

People will try, but they may not succeed. The attempt to create a unified Jewish national identity in Israel was only partially successful even with Ben-Gurion's quasi-Kemalist policies and the severe threat that the state has faced for much of its history; in Salonika, without either of these factors, any attempt to mold a single identity will resemble herding cats. The saying "two Jews, three opinions" doesn't come out of nowhere.

With that said, though, Salonika in the 1930s and 40s, which is probably when we'll take our next close look at it, will be a different place - wealth, immigration and geopolitics will all work cultural changes, and at least some of it (the wealth) will have a homogenizing effect.

Please tell me that Bram Stoker is writing a series about a mysterious Count, driven from his home in Transylvania by the war and washed up in London- his fortune is running out, but he is increasingly called upon by Scotland Yard for his strange abilities to see what others don't...

Well, it might not be Bram Stoker who writes that story...
 

Sulemain

Banned
I've got it: The Alt Churchill, who was a bit of writer in OTL, will be remembered for writing brilliant detective stories! It all fits!
 
Quality update. Salonika sounds very real in a way I can't quite put my finger on. Maybe it's having been to Naples and being Jewish, but I reckon most of it is your skill as a writer.
 
Thanks! Is there anything in particular, in the United States or elsewhere, that you'd like to see? We'll next visit the US in the 1930s.

Well, I would definitely be curious in seeing how the new political landscape leads or doesn't lead into the familiar topics of the 20's and 30's of stocks, tariffs, prohibition, organized crime, and the like.

I'm also curious how the civil rights movement is different from our own, as I assume it must be. Some of the white establishment actions leading up to the Civil Rights Act were direct reflections of our horror at seeing Nazi crimes. So I wonder what the legal landscape will look like without a Holocaust, which seems to be the case ITL.
 
Well, I accept most people in Naples have been always poor, but the wealth of the palaces and churches speaks loudly

Yeah, it was the second largest city in Europe for a couple centuries, and still had more people than London in 1600: people would hardly have moved there in such numbers if had been a total dump.

(Of course, it _has_ had a off half-millenium)

Bruce
 
Yeah, it was the second largest city in Europe for a couple centuries, and still had more people than London in 1600: people would hardly have moved there in such numbers if had been a total dump.

(Of course, it _has_ had a off half-millenium)

Bruce

Exactly. My observation, as a new world type, of many of the Mediterranean western European rim port cities is that they, regardless of a rough 18th-early 20th centuries is that they had a very good time of it for a very long time, based on their cathedrals, port facilities and rich people's houses. Far more so than say a Northern European city.

Could anyone really compare say Malaga to York in terms of pre modern wealth?
 
Exactly. My observation, as a new world type, of many of the Mediterranean western European rim port cities is that they, regardless of a rough 18th-early 20th centuries is that they had a very good time of it for a very long time, based on their cathedrals, port facilities and rich people's houses. Far more so than say a Northern European city.

Could anyone really compare say Malaga to York in terms of pre modern wealth?

Well, until the Atlantic and Baltic trade realy took off through the sixteenth century, the Med was the place where all the juicer thing in trade passed. And even when America and the Cape Route were discovered, their early European trade terminals were in Iberia (Seville and Lisbon respectively) and pretty much tied into the Mediterranean system (especially Seville). Of course, later on it was rough going, with all the Mediterranean powers declining and their naval interaction reduced (frequent wars didn't help either). However, Naples weathered that storm better than, say, Genua or Seville itself, not to mention places like Tunis. It helped to be a key pawn in the Borbonic power system and having a fairly modern State to back the capital as a consequence (the rotting oligarchies in Genua and Venice clearly did NOT have the same advantage). Livorno was the counterpart within the Hapsburg system and benefited accordingly.
 
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