Malê Rising

I'm actually wondering if you'll see a somewhat substantial migration of Vietnamese Catholics to Reunion, Guadeloupe, and Martinique ITTL? They have the benefit of having a warmer climate than Paris, and Reunion in particular is the nearest French port of call regardless.

Of course, they would not become dominant on any of these islands, but they could perhaps get to 5%-15% of the population, and leave their own mark on the (already quite mixed) local culture.
 
Giancarlo Rossi, The 1905 Conclave and the Battle for the Church (New York: Catholic Workers’ Press, 1965)


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… The death of Pope Gregory XVII in Brussels in October 1904 marked the end of the Church’s most tumultuous period since the Counter-Reformation. Under Gregory, the Church had, unthinkably, gone to war, and even more unthinkably, it had lost. The world was full of Papal Legion veterans and disillusioned Catholic Liberals intent on bringing the war over the faith to their own countries, and the battle between them had led to Gregory earning the dubious distinction of being the first Pope ever expelled from two countries.

Under the circumstances, the next Conclave could hardly be expected to be an ordinary one. Even the place where it would be held was a matter of much debate. Rome, of course, was out of the question; the Italian government of the time was less radically anti-clerical than the one that had fallen over the Vatican treasures scandal, but it was still no friend of the Church, and any meeting there would be on terms set by the civil authorities. Paris, under socialist rule, and Madrid, from which Gregory had been politely but firmly ejected after becoming a political flashpoint, were nearly as unacceptable. Brussels, favored by the hard-line faction among the cardinals, was rejected for fear of political influence, and Vienna because nobody wanted to test whether the Habsburg emperor still had a veto over papal candidates.

Several smaller European cities had their supporters – Prague, Warsaw, Munich and Lisbon were all considered – but due to political instability or factional associations, none could secure majority support. For a time, it seemed that the Conclave might founder before it had even begun, and the anti-clerical press gleefully suggested that the Palais des Papes in Avignon be reopened for business. In the circumstances, Empress Isabel’s invitation to hold the Conclave in Rio de Janeiro proved a godsend. Nobody had seriously considered a New World city – Gregory had appointed several non-European cardinals, the first in centuries, but they were still a small minority – but once suggested, it was an obvious choice. Isabel was both impeccably Catholic and reticent about interfering in Church affairs, and Rio was far from the squabbles of postwar European politics.

The cardinals who assembled in the Rio de Janeiro cathedral in March 1905 were deeply divided about the future of the Church. After thirty-two years of Pius IX and twenty-six years of Gregory XVII, none could really be called liberal; the Catholic Liberals were a movement of the grass roots and the lower rungs of the hierarchy, not the College of Cardinals. But there were sharp distinctions between those who wanted to continue with Gregory’s militant ultramontanism and those who favored a pastoral papacy to heal the Church’s wounds. There were also fault lines between the more traditional conservatives, with their focus on high-level power politics, and the cardinals associated with the Papal Legion, who called for a doctrinal brotherhood that transcended national and class boundaries. The cardinals were also aware that the French Emperor and the Spanish king still claimed the right of civil veto, and while they had repudiated the veto in principle, few wanted to risk the unnecessary complications that one would cause.

Inevitably, the Conclave became deadlocked between several candidates, each of whom claimed the support of a vocal minority. After a month of balloting, there was little movement; none of the candidates would yield, and none were able to sway the others’ supporters. The debate began to shift toward possible compromise candidates, outsiders who might bridge the gap between the factions. It may have been the spirit of the first New World Conclave at work, but the two candidates that emerged from the back-room meetings and straw ballots were both from the Western Hemisphere: Atenógenes Silva y Álvarez Tostado, Archbishop of Michoacán, and Joaquín Arcadio Pagaza y Ordóñez, Archbishop of Monterrey.

Both archbishops had the desired combination of doctrinal conservatism and political moderation, but beyond that, they could hardly be more different. Pagaza was an academic and a man of letters, the author of several books of poetry and scholarly works on theology, and he would be a philosopher-pope. Silva, who had come up as an administrator of charities and hospitals, was known in his central Mexican diocese as “the Father of the Poor.”

Ultimately, on the ninety-ninth ballot, the desire for a pastoral papacy won out, and Silva was elected. The smoke rose over Rio on April 29, 1905, and the world learned that it had a new Pope, Celestine VI. There had been no Popes named Celestine since the thirteenth century, and the last one hadn’t ended well, but he had been a humble Pope, and this was evidently what Silva wanted to emulate.

Celestine was in fact a pastoral Pope, one who steered clear of combative political stances in favor of ministry, charity and institutional development. Although careful about maintaining the purity of doctrine, he did not oppose secular democracy as the nineteenth-century Popes had, and under him, the Church would begin coming to terms with modernity. The Conclave had won breathing space to heal the rifts that divided the faithful.

But Celestine would also create new divisions. Although he withdrew from secular political struggles, he had no such compunction about Church politics, and in internal matters, he was a Legionnaire’s Pope who abhorred distinctions of race, nationality and social class. He was the voice of those who were deeply ambivalent about the Legion’s conduct during the war but who valued its camaraderie and commitment to the equality of believers. He was particularly outraged when Catholics were oppressed by other Catholics, and condemned forced labor in the colonies and exploitation of the European and American poor. He also continued Gregory’s practice of appointing cardinals from outside the traditional circles of Church power, drawing from both the diocesan priesthood of Europe and the non-European world. During Celestine’s reign, cardinals would come from as far afield as Angola, Vietnam and the Philippines.

It was the last of these that would again, unintentionally, embroil the Church in secular politics. Since the late 1870s, the Philippines had been a dominion of the Spanish crown, with broad internal autonomy. However, the bureaucracy and the education system were still dominated by a self-perpetuating cadre of Spanish-born Dominican and Augustinian priests who often undermined the authority of the elected government. The nationalists, who had initially been mollified by dominion status, were increasingly impatient with the government’s inability to dislodge this clique, and the returning Legionnaires, who had known freedom from caste discrimination during the war and some of whom had held positions of command, added fuel to the fire.

But that was as nothing to the petrol that Celestine poured on the flames in 1908, when he elevated one of the few Filipino bishops to archbishop of Manila and appointed him a cardinal. The new archbishop, Teófilo Navarro, was a man of strong nationalist sympathies, and joined the government in bringing the entrenched bureaucracy to heel. The friars, much closer to the centers of power in Madrid than either the cardinal or the dominion prime minister, persuaded the Spanish cabinet that it was in fact the Filipino government and priests that were attempting to undermine Spanish rule. A fact-finding mission in 1909 yielded inconclusive results, but the Cortes, seeing the integrity of the empire at stake, declared a state of insurrection late that year and removed the dominion government. The prime minister refused to step down, and Navarro supported him, calling on the faithful to protect the country’s freedom. In an overheated emotional environment, matters quickly spiraled out of control, and the result, in February 1910, was a war that neither side wanted…


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Zélia Alalouf, Bridge to the Twentieth Century: The Brazil of Isabel I (São Paulo: Nova Fronteira, 2010)

… On paper, Brazil in 1900 was the master of its domain. Its losses in the war hadn’t been heavy, immigration to the industrial cities had continued even during wartime, and the postwar economic turnaround had come quickly. Grão Pará was part of Empress Isabel’s domain, in personal and customs union with Brazil, and Brazilian companies joined those of Europe and America in harvesting the wealth of the Amazon. The industrial cities of the southeast were as polyglot as any in the New World, Iberians, Germans and Eastern Europeans rubbing shoulders with Africans, Arabs and the newest arrivals from Vietnam.

To the south, the breakup of Argentina had removed a potential rival, the gaucho republics were friendly, and Paraguay had descended into low-grade civil war between the ruling family’s allies and liberal reformers. To the west, the Andean republics were a perennial source of immigrants for Brazilian plantations and factories. Venezuela was unhappy but chastened, and was preoccupied with its own civil strife. Brazil was primed to break away from French economic dominance and become a more equal ally, and the choice of Rio to host the Papal Conclave was a symbol of Brazil’s rise in the world.

For Isabel, however, the wartime gains would prove a poisoned chalice. Like the Tall dynasty in the Toucouleur Empire – although she would have bridled at the comparison – she was trying to preserve an idealized commonwealth of pious yeomen in the face of industrial modernity. Even before the war, discontent had been growing in the industrial cities: the immigrants who lived there may have been mostly Catholic, but most had little use for Isabel’s ultramontane utopianism or for the autocracy, censorship and cultural repression by which it was maintained. And still more was there discontent among those who were not Catholic, including those who followed Islam and the outlawed candomble faiths.

Nor did the challenges come only from the immigrants. Although the laws of Grão Pará and Brazil were strictly separate, people now moved freely between them, and it was not lost on many Brazilians that Grão Pará had a liberal constitution, universal suffrage and land reform. The Brazilians who went to work in the Amazon came home with new ideas, and the quilombos of the Brazilian back-country took inspiration from the success of their counterparts across the border. The spirit of the Cabanagem and the Marianada were once again returning to Brazil.

In another country, or in Brazil at another time, this might have been a recipe for civil war. Certainly, when the allegations of fraud that followed the 1908 election gave rise to widespread street protests, there were many who urged Isabel to crush them with the army. But Brazil had been torn apart by civil war in the 1830s and 40s, and nearly torn apart again in the 1850s and 60s, and the empress was unwilling to go down that road again. And when she learned that parish priests had come out to join the demonstrators, she refused to order the army to shoot the clergy of her beloved Church. Instead, she acceded to the protesters’ demand for a constitutional assembly, to be chosen by universal male suffrage within six months.

The assembly that convened in early 1909, the product of the “Quiet Revolution,” was something different from any congress that had met in Brazil before: the traditional upper-class planters and provincial notables sat cheek by jowl with trade unionists, Afro-Brazilian peasant leaders and Koreans from the back country. And the July Constitution would mark the end of the empress’ autocracy: henceforward, Brazil would have responsible government subject to imperial reserve powers as well as strong guarantees of civil liberties. The new Brazil would still be a conservative country, and the Church would play a central role in guiding social reforms, but the last twelve years of Isabel’s reign would be different from the first forty…


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Alison Gordon, The Reinvention of the Caribbean (Univ. of Kingston Press, 1998)

… The British Caribbean in 1900 was much the same, politically and socially, as it had been in 1870: a tiny upper class, a large underclass of servants and agricultural workers, and little in between. In theory, the law made no distinctions based on race; however, economic oligopolies and strict property qualifications for the franchise had kept the racial stratification of the nineteenth century intact. In the Jamaican election of 1901, only 25,000 people from a total population of 820,000 had the vote, and malapportionment in favor of rural areas meant that some constituencies had less than 100 voters. These came almost entirely from the white planter class, the Kingston merchants and the educated mixed-race population, with the black majority represented hardly at all.

The Jamaican elites maintained a loose alliance to protect their privileges, but were in an uneasy relationship with each other as well as the underclass. The merchants, many of whom were immigrants, had different priorities from the planters and clashed with them on tariffs and public spending, while the theoretical equality of the mixed-race elite didn’t translate to equality in the social hierarchy. No matter how rich a creole was, he could not expect to become a member of the sporting clubs where much of the colony’s business was done, and their own social clubs were shut out of much of the deal-making. It is little wonder that Alexander Gordon gave up a safe seat in the Jamaican legislature to stand for Parliament in Stepney; as he said at the time, the risk of standing as a foreign mixed-race candidate in a London constituency was worth the possibility of being in a position to actually do something.

In the event, he could do little. Jamaica had responsible government and a highly effective parliamentary lobby, and was thus largely impervious to the social changes occurring in Britain. The smaller islands were little better; they had no responsible government but were still fiefdoms of their governors, and their day-to-day government was conducted by executive and legislative councils appointed from the upper classes that shared the governor’s social circles. If anything, they were even more socially and racially stratified than Jamaica was.

But the 1900s were also a time when radical ideas were beginning to flow into the islands. In the wake of the armistice, merchants from Sierra Leone, Liberia and the Niger Valley coast set up shop in Kingston and Bridgetown to join the sugar and coffee trade. The Afro-Atlanticism of Blyden gained some purchase among black intellectuals and the more discontented of the mixed-race elite; Abacarism, although tied to a strange faith, also influenced Jamaican nationalists with its notions of democratic self-rule and consent as a fundamental pillar of government.

The Anglo-Caribbean upper class reacted to these developments much as might be expected. In 1904, the Jamaican legislature barred African merchants from Kingston - a measure that the Sierra Leone merchants’ association appealed to the House of Lords, winning a reversal on the ground that British subjects could not be prevented from trading anywhere in the British Empire. Failing that, both Jamaica and Barbados banned nationalist clubs as seditious, but the number of arrests and trials between 1905 and 1910 shows that they were anything but successful in eliminating anti-colonial sentiment. And in 1908, an independent candidate affiliated with the nationalist All Jamaicans’ Party was elected in a Kingston constituency, signaling a dangerous fissure between the white and mixed-race ends of the elite coalition. The other legislators refused to seat him, but he was re-elected in 1910 with a larger majority, and when he was again denied his seat, he called for a general strike…

… Cuba and Puerto Rico, self-governing Spanish dominions since 1876, were content enough during the postwar decade. Liberal governments and incremental land reform had reduced disaffection in the countryside, and since dominion status had conferred universal Spanish citizenship, many islanders formed connections to the mother country through work or study. These trends were stronger in Cuba than in yeoman Puerto Rico; Madrid and Barcelona both had Cuban communities by the mid-1900s, with Afro-Cubans heavily represented in the Barcelona left and in the avant-garde music scene. Havana, in turn, grew into a multiracial cultural center reminiscent of contemporary Paris, giving form to the “rumba age” of the early twentieth century.

By this time, Cuba had also become part of the emerging Afro-Atlantic network. Like other colonial powers, Spain had settled freedmen in Africa, with more than a thousand emancipated slaves being given passage to Fernando Po between the 1840s and 1860s. There, they intermarried with the indigenous population and the fernandino creoles, becoming a hybrid people that preserved Cuban heritage much as the Agudas and the Malê preserved Brazilian cultural elements. By the time of the Great War, Santa Isabel on Fernando Po was part of the Coaster trading system, and afterward, it became the Coasters’ connection to the Spanish Caribbean.

The Fernandinos opened the doors of Havana and San Juan not only for themselves but for the other Coaster peoples; traders, students and intellectuals from Sierra Leone, Liberia, francophone West Africa and even South Carolina were present in both cities. The result was a fusion of musical, artistic and literary styles that would make Havana a place of pilgrimage from throughout the Americas…

… The forgiveness of the French debt had brought much-needed economic stability to Haiti, and the administrations of Lysius Salomon and Oswald Durand – the first two Haitian presidents to actually finish their terms – had brought a measure of political stability. The conflict between the mulatto economic elite and the black peasantry was far from over, but the country’s developing political institutions were giving it a place to play out short of the knife. The governments of the 1880s and 90s also focused on rural development, and for the first time in Haiti’s history, the peasants actually saw some benefit from the state in the form of roads, schools and water infrastructure. As well, Haiti drew increasing investment from South Carolina, francophone Africa, and even the Malê, who considered the Haitian revolution the mother of their own.

But progress in Haiti was often a matter of three steps forward and two back. Despite improvements, most peasants still lived in extreme poverty, and corruption remained widespread. Under strong presidents like Salomon and Durand, the country stayed within bounds; under weak ones, when oppressive local officials were not controlled and administrative and judicial avenues of appeal broke down, the discontent could touch off rebellion. The country briefly reverted to the old ways during the succession of short-lived, weak administrations in the mid-1890s, with rival candidates encouraging rebellion in the countryside in order to overthrow the incumbents. The return of Salomon’s predecessor Boisrond-Canal in 1894, combined with the fragile prosperity that Haiti achieved as a neutral country during the war, righted the ship temporarily, but in the mid-1900s, the country again fell into crisis.

The root of the problem was the economic slump Haiti experienced after the war. The return of Papal Legion veterans to Cuba and the Dominican Republic, and the latter country’s own economic downturn, meant that there was less of the seasonal work that many Haitian peasants relied on to sustain themselves, and the return to peacetime trading patterns meant that Port-au-Prince and Cap-Haïtien no longer profited from being neutral ports. Many Haitians, urged on by out-of-power politicians, came to believe that foreigners had stolen their prosperity, and in 1903 and 1904, there were riots in which three Senegalese teachers were killed. France demanded compensation, which the Haitian government could ill afford, and the demand only fueled anti-foreigner sentiment.

Worse was to come in 1905, when Haitian seasonal workers in the Dominican Republic rioted after their pay was stolen. Several Dominicans died in the clashes, at which point the Dominican army intervened, crushing the riots and taking most of the workers prisoner. This might have been the end of the matter, except that Dominican mobs ranged through the countryside massacring Haitians wherever they could be found. Accurate figures have never been determined, but thousands, and possibly more than ten thousand, were killed.

The Haitian government, already primed to protect the nation’s sovereignty against foreign encroachment, reacted with fury, and after the Dominican Republic refused to make reparations, it declared war. In October 1905, the Haitian army invaded Dominican territory along a broad front. It made initial progress, with the outnumbered Dominicans falling back in the north and south, but the southern offensive stalled in the mountains and the army suffered as Dominican partisans attacked its tenuous supply lines. In 1906, the Dominicans took the offensive, but their attack also bogged down, and by midyear, the battle had settled into trench warfare with Haiti occupying about a quarter of Dominican soil.

The fighting would drag on for another year and a half, with casualties mounting on both sides, before the governments of both countries fell and a consortium of mediators from South Carolina, Africa and Europe persuaded them to refer their dispute to the International Court of Arbitration. The war would end, not with a bang but with a ruling; in April 1909, the court ordered Haiti to vacate Dominican territory and directed the Dominican Republic to pay compensation for the massacre. By that time a fragile peace had returned to Hispaniola, and the reparations helped Haiti to recover under the technocratic administration of Laurent Mézard, but the scars of the war would be a long time healing…

… On the rim of the Caribbean, Mexico believed that it was finally coming into its own. The election of a Mexican Pope was celebrated throughout the country as a sign of Mexico’s new place in the world, and wartime industrial development had brought new wealth and amenities to the cities. Mexico City in particular became a showplace, with lush parks and gardens, theaters and opera houses, and districts of mansions. But there was a stark contrast between the opulence of the cities and the desperate poverty of the countryside, and while the last quarter of the nineteenth century had been a time of internal peace and development, the government was corrupt and dictatorial and the middle class increasingly unsatisfied.

The governments of the 1900s were unconcerned about the growing discontent; indeed, it seemed that the insulated upper class was hardly aware that any discontent existed. Their preoccupations were the development of the capital city, ensuring the growth of the industrial belt in Nuevo León, Tamaulipas and Veracruz states, and increasing Mexican presence on the world stage. They did achieve these things to varying degrees, and also managed to put the Yucatan house in order after half a century of conflict; a 1903 British-brokered deal resulted in the breakaway Maya republic of Chan Santa Cruz being admitted as an autonomous Mexican state, with its acts ratified by the Mexican government and its president confirmed in office as governor.

But as peace was made in the south, unrest grew further north. Monterrey, the center of Mexico’s wartime industrial growth, became known as the “Mexican Barcelona,” with four-cornered clashes between industrialists, liberals, leftist trade unions and Catholic unions. The last of these included many Legion veterans and claiming inspiration from Pope Celestine although not sanctioned by him. In Jalisco, Guanajuato and Queretaro, land reform protests spiraled into peasant revolts, which by 1908 had come dangerously close to the capital. Angered by what it saw as the government’s weak response to the rebellions, the military took power in 1909, sparking another conflict that would ultimately implicate the Church and the international left…
 
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Actually, the Jesuits were the more progressive of the Spanish Friars, relatively speaking, running schools like the Ateneo de Manila. It was the Augustinians, the Dominicans, and the Recollects that were the problem in the Philippines.
 

Deleted member 67076

Magnificent update. I am glad to see the developments all around, (except for the Dominican-Haitian war:( and the fact that just like in OTL, Anti-Haitianismo will still exist, along with its hatred of dark skin).

At least Trujillo is butterflied away, I can take comfort in that at least.

Here's to hoping the peace can last and both countries can get better.
 
Nice update Jonathan. Interesting to see how veteran Legionnaires bring change and social foment home with them to all corners of the Catholic world.

Where was the US during the Haiti-Dominican War? Isolationist or not, there will still be a lot of US capital investment in the Caribbean and Central America as OTL. I wonder what they'll do to protect it. Were their any American concessionaire warlords in either the Congo or Grao Para? If so, they may bring their experience of political control for profit back to the New World and set off on Banana Republic filibustering adventures without the support of the US government.

I wonder what domestic black migration within the US will look like ITTL. Will there be less of a Northward migration into the cities once US industries really take off?
 
Hmm...

The Conclave: Well, goodbye Spanish Philippines! it's been fun knowing you! I suspect the Japanese will be gleeful that a resource-rich, large-market colony is revolting so close by them. I wonder what shall happen to the Muslim majority south now. (Sulu-Maguindanao Rising?)

Brazil: Nice to see that the place avoided the post-monarchy strife of OTL. I wonder if Pedro II would be happy to see that his dynasty outlived his death, although it may be for the better if it did...

Caribbean: Careful, Jamaica. You could change a lot of things now, while you can. (They won't, won't they? At least, not until it's too late). As for Mexico and Hispaniola, I really hope the United States takes a blind eye to all of this.

A question that should have been asked months ago: How did Ecuador manage to get some of it's neighbours' territory during the Great War?

A question asked on a more recent event: Will the Chinese Civil War spur greater emigration into South-East Asia? If so, then I wonder how will the locals react to the new arrivals...
 
...censorship and cultural repression by which it was maintained. And still more was there

what exactly?

EDIT: Otherwise... oh, boy - the Legion is turning out to be a whole lot of trouble for a lot of countries. The early 20th century sounds like it will be littered with regional conflicts and civil unrest.
 
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I'm actually wondering if you'll see a somewhat substantial migration of Vietnamese Catholics to Reunion, Guadeloupe, and Martinique ITTL? They have the benefit of having a warmer climate than Paris, and Reunion in particular is the nearest French port of call regardless.

Of course, they would not become dominant on any of these islands, but they could perhaps get to 5%-15% of the population, and leave their own mark on the (already quite mixed) local culture.

There's a lot more opportunity in Paris or Rio, and there have been Vietnamese in both cities for some time, but as you say, the islands have a better climate, and there are niches that could be filled. The possibility of becoming a substantial minority rather than a small one might also be attractive - it would take less than 20,000 Vietnamese to become 10 percent of the population of Guadeloupe or Martinique. I'd expect that some would go, although the metropolitan cities would be the main destinations.

Actually, the Jesuits were the more progressive of the Spanish Friars, relatively speaking, running schools like the Ateneo de Manila. It was the Augustinians, the Dominicans, and the Recollects that were the problem in the Philippines.

Thanks, correction made. It does make more sense that the Dominicans would be the troublesome ones. The Jesuits are likely to side with the ilustrados and the Legion veterans, then - a case of strange bedfellows if there ever was one, but there's been a lot of that in TTL.

Magnificent update. I am glad to see the developments all around, (except for the Dominican-Haitian war:( and the fact that just like in OTL, Anti-Haitianismo will still exist, along with its hatred of dark skin).

Unfortunately, I think that's going to happen, given the Dominican Republic's history under Haitian rule and the tensions that inevitably arise between poor populations competing for work. There will be better things in store for both countries, though; the 1900s are the nadir.

Interesting to see how veteran Legionnaires bring change and social foment home with them to all corners of the Catholic world.

Otherwise... oh, boy - the Legion is turning out to be a whole lot of trouble for a lot of countries. The early 20th century sounds like it will be littered with regional conflicts and civil unrest.

A movement like the Legion is bound to change the people who take part in it. As Jord839 once said, the Legion will be remembered among the faithful as a story of sin and temptation due to the atrocities during the war, but also a story of brotherhood and elimination of artificial distinctions. The Legion veterans have reacted to this experience in different ways, some mostly bad (Belgium, France, Spain), some mostly good (Philippines, possibly Mexico) and others more ambiguous.

The 1910s will certainly be a turbulent decade. TTL is moving out of the age of imperial conflicts and into the age of ideological conflicts, although there will be a fairly big one during the 1910s-20s that is both.

Where was the US during the Haiti-Dominican War? Isolationist or not, there will still be a lot of US capital investment in the Caribbean and Central America as OTL. I wonder what they'll do to protect it. Were their any American concessionaire warlords in either the Congo or Grao Para? If so, they may bring their experience of political control for profit back to the New World and set off on Banana Republic filibustering adventures without the support of the US government.

The United States was divided - there were more American commercial interests in the Dominican Republic than in Haiti, but public opinion was on the side of the Haitians due to the massacre. As a result, the US concentrated on protecting its interests and let other countries take the lead in brokering a peace.

There were American concessionaires in the Congo, and plenty of them in Grão Pará, but there aren't too many places left to filibuster in the twentieth century. Most of them have become "respectable" by now in the way that robber barons often do; from great felonies come great fortunes.

I wonder what domestic black migration within the US will look like ITTL. Will there be less of a Northward migration into the cities once US industries really take off?

This topic has been kicked around before. There was migration west from the Jim Crow states as there was in OTL, and the northern migration is also starting - even in the states where Jim Crow hasn't taken hold, the prospect of better wages will attract many migrants.

The Conclave: Well, goodbye Spanish Philippines! it's been fun knowing you! I suspect the Japanese will be gleeful that a resource-rich, large-market colony is revolting so close by them. I wonder what shall happen to the Muslim majority south now. (Sulu-Maguindanao Rising?)

Japan has been in touch with the Filipino nationalists for years - it doesn't want to annex the Philippines, but it would love to break them off from the Spanish empire and have a friendly state nearby. The loss of the Philippines would also make the Spanish Micronesian empire untenable, and Japan might be in a position to pick it up as it did in OTL.

The Muslim south might try to go its own way, given that it was only recently brought under control and isn't well integrated with the rest of the Philippines. A great deal might depend on whether they can fight off both the Spaniards and the Filipino nationalists, or whether they can make a deal with one or the other.

Caribbean: Careful, Jamaica. You could change a lot of things now, while you can. (They won't, won't they? At least, not until it's too late). As for Mexico and Hispaniola, I really hope the United States takes a blind eye to all of this.

The Jamaican upper class has its collective head pretty firmly in the sand, so the chances of reforming in time are unfortunately low. In Mexico, as in Grão Pará, the United States won't intervene as long as nobody attacks its commercial interests, although if someone does, all bets are off.

A question that should have been asked months ago: How did Ecuador manage to get some of it's neighbours' territory during the Great War?

A question asked on a more recent event: Will the Chinese Civil War spur greater emigration into South-East Asia? If so, then I wonder how will the locals react to the new arrivals...

Ecuador grabbed some of Grão Pará when the latter country was in chaos. (If you're thinking of the territory that's part of modern Peru in OTL, it did belong to Ecuador during the nineteenth century - Ecuador in OTL was once bigger than it is now.)

I'm not sure whether Chinese emigration will be more or less than OTL - China is having a civil war, but it's also in better economic shape. The answer might depend on how long the war lasts and what happens afterward.

what exactly?

Sorry, fixed that.
 
The 1910s will certainly be a turbulent decade. TTL is moving out of the age of imperial conflicts and into the age of ideological conflicts, although there will be a fairly big one during the 1910s-20s that is both.

Great updates, Jonathan! Really fantastic stuff.

And, as to this conflict that's both, I'm guessing it'll have a lot to do with India. Maybe even everything to do with India.

Cheers,
Ganesha
 
Now that's interesting. A Mexican pope, though I'm assuming he's pretty white, will shake things up a bit, especially with his emphasis on the good part of the Legionaires' experiences in removing artificial racial, class, and national boundaries. We can see that's already causing trouble, but I'm honestly curious if it might not be the best option the Church has open to it right now. It'll be interesting to see how it develops.

On that same vein, I wouldn't expect it now with Celestine's desire to stay out of politics, but further on down the line I think we can expect some colonies to have nationalist development similar to Lesotho's. IIRC, the Catholic Church had a pretty significant hand in the development of the Basotho Nationalist Party there around independence and the majority of its politicians were practicing Catholics with the opposition parties being associated with protestants (and muslims in the NE). IOTL, this was due more to Catholic control of a majority of the schooling there and acting on changes in the wind towards colonialism/Vatican II, but here I could see it as a natural outgrowth in areas like Portuguese Africa later.

Besides that, it's good to see Brazil avoid civil strife, but sad to see it in Hispaniola and continuing in the rest of South America. Are the Bahamas playing a part at all in the Afro-Atlantic identity or developing political changes in the Carribean?
 
And, as to this conflict that's both, I'm guessing it'll have a lot to do with India. Maybe even everything to do with India.

All I'll say now is that you'll find out very soon.

Now that's interesting. A Mexican pope, though I'm assuming he's pretty white, will shake things up a bit, especially with his emphasis on the good part of the Legionaires' experiences in removing artificial racial, class, and national boundaries.

He was pretty white, yes, but he spent his Church career among people who mostly weren't. He'll definitely shake things up, both because he comes from outside the entrenched Church power circles and because he's a remarkable man in his own right. (Mexico seems to have had quite a few remarkable churchmen at this time, born before or within a few years of the POD - both candidates at TTL's Conclave existed in OTL, and I changed their careers only a little.)

His perspective will change the Church profoundly, and will cause conflicts that continue to this day, but after TTL's nineteenth century, you may well be right that it's the best long-term course.

On that same vein, I wouldn't expect it now with Celestine's desire to stay out of politics, but further on down the line I think we can expect some colonies to have nationalist development similar to Lesotho's... IOTL, this was due more to Catholic control of a majority of the schooling there and acting on changes in the wind towards colonialism/Vatican II, but here I could see it as a natural outgrowth in areas like Portuguese Africa later.

Watch that Angolan cardinal. He'll be a major challenger to Portugal's way of doing things in its colonies, starting with the very fact that he'll have Portuguese priests under him.

Are the Bahamas playing a part at all in the Afro-Atlantic identity or developing political changes in the Carribean?

The Bahamas are peripheral, but they're also part of the United States now, which means that Bahamians will be able to gain cultural influence in American cities and will interact heavily with South Carolina. It will be part of the Afro-Atlantic network, although not the most major of parts.
 

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Defne Bereket, The Ottoman Cinema (Stamboul: Tulip Press, 1993)

… The Ottoman Empire’s first experimental movies were shot as early as the war, but the true beginning of Ottoman film was the opening of the Davetoglu studio in 1901. Davetoglu was a visionary director with a ruthless marketing genius and a flair for assembling talent, and his movies, titled in Turkish and Arabic, transformed cinema from an elite curiosity to mass entertainment. By 1910, there were eleven studios in Stamboul and more than a hundred theaters, and the Ottoman capital was counted among the world’s dozen cinema hubs. [1]

Music had been the first universal art form in Stamboul, and cinema became the second. Film breached barriers of language and ethnicity: it was common for movies to be titled in three or even four languages, which may be why silent films lasted somewhat longer in the Ottoman Empire than elsewhere. Film also crossed gender lines. In most other respects, social and artistic life was segregated: the city’s coffee-houses and social clubs were an exclusively male domain, the social life of the residential streets belonged to the women, and literary or poetic readings were typically given to audiences of the author’s gender. But the movie camera entered the women’s world and brought women into the public performance space, giving actresses like Zehra Arat their first exposure.

The themes of early Ottoman cinema were threefold. Most common, and most loved by the capital’s audiences, were dramas based on the Turkish, Arabic and Persian classics; film was in fact key to bringing classical Arabic culture to a Turkish audience, and would play a significant part in mediating Arab political aspirations. Less numerous, but popular with sophisticated viewers and occasionally crossing over to mass appeal, were social dramas and absurdist comedies, all relentlessly political and seeking clarity amid the rudderless politics of the time.

The Inheritance (1906) is typical of the absurdist genre. A farmer, Mehmet, owns two plots of land, one larger than the other, and his will is unclear as to which plot will go to which son. His older son Mustafa, thinking himself clever, files suit in both the official courts and the courts of the elected council that forms the sanjak’s unofficial government. When the two courts issue opposite rulings, he and his brother demand that they annul each other, and both sons take a series of futile appeals to ever-more-incompetent officials. Finally, the younger son, appropriately named Suleiman, brokers a compromise: the brothers will switch plots each week.

The social-drama genre is characterized by films such as The Sultan of Mehdi Street (1907). Made during the turbulent prelude to the 1907 election and the Year of Five Governments, chronicles the previous election campaign and its aftermath in a working-class industrial neighborhood. Its anti-hero, Adem, builds a power base among peasants who have migrated to the city for work, finding them jobs and apartments in exchange for their votes. The peasants, whose headmen voted on their behalf in the villages, are easily convinced that Adem will act as their proxy. With their support, Adem is elected to both the official city council and the parallel sanjak council, defeating an idealistic war veteran, and alternately promotes and undermines both institutions as he seeks to turn the power vacuum to his own advantage.

Other comedies and social dramas – the one would sometimes fade into the other as central government continued to falter – tackled themes such as child marriage, polygamy, conditions in the industrial towns, and most controversially of all, the aspirations of the empire’s minorities. Todor’s Wedding (1909), one of the first films made in Stamboul by a Bulgarian director, caused even more of a firestorm than Leyla Celer’s The Second Family had done the previous year. While the film was careful not to advocate disloyalty to the Sultan, the wartime atrocities of the Ottoman army were part of its backstory, and the hero’s wedding dance in Bulgarian national dress was portrayed as a gesture of affirmation and defiance. Many condemned the movie as seditious, while others argued that Bulgarians had real grievances and that they should not be left out of the empire’s march toward freedom…

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Miriam Calderon, Dreaming of Jerusalem: Salonika, 1878-1928 (Stamboul: Sepharad, 1955)

… “I came to Salonika to find the Jewish nation,” said playwright Meyer London in 1903, “but I hadn’t expected so many of them.”

Few made the point as succinctly as London, but it was one that visitors picked up on within hours of arrival: that in the Free City of Salonika, “the Jewish people” was at best a term of art. There were Jews and Jews, and most considered their neighbors to be part of the second group.

Salonika in 1900, counting the suburbs and rural areas that were part of the international zone, had more than half a million people, ten times as many as had lived there before the War of the Balkan Alliance. The prewar Sephardic and Romaniote communities still made up most of the elite, but they had become a demographic minority. Now they shared their space with refugees from the Pale of Settlement, the Caucasus and Central Asia, with growing communities of Persian and Yemeni immigrants, with businessmen from western Europe and the Americas, and even with a few Ethiopian Jews who had set up shop in the wake of the war.

The Jews of Salonika spoke a dozen different languages, came from as many religious traditions, and didn’t always get along. Many brought resentments and conflicts with them from the old country, and some formed new ones: Russian Jews looked down on their Caucasian and Central Asian cousins who returned their condescension with resentment; the Sephardim who were used to being cultural and political leaders were threatened by new Russian and German Jewish wealth; the secular liberals and socialists thought of the Orthodox Jews as backward and were seen in turn as apostates. In the crowded precincts of the city, these rivalries sometimes turned into street brawls, and elections were lively affairs which sometimes featured fifteen or twenty squabbling parties.

But the same closeness and cultural difference that sometimes made Salonika uncomfortable, also made it the creative and economically vibrant city that it was. In the center city and the waterfront district, the products and foods of a dozen different Jewish cultures could be found, the communities shared each other’s religious and secular music, and regional holidays such as Mimouna and Sigd became shared celebrations. There was intermarriage between the communities, much as their elders tried to stop it, which led to polyglot families and fusions of literary and artistic styles.

Perhaps inevitably, a new form of Jewish nationalism emerged, focused not on reclaiming the Holy Land but on the hybrid culture to which Salonika’s diverse Jews had given rise. This was a cultural rather than a territorial nationalism, aimed at instilling the concept of a Jewish people that transcended national and cultural borders. Its followers supported the revival of Hebrew as a common language of all Jews, and opened a Hebrew press, weekly magazine and music publishing house. This movement would also be strongly influenced by the Reconstructionist Judaism of Haifa, with its emphasis on the Bahá'u'lláh’s teachings of peace, equality and education…

*******

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Aram Sakalian, The Young Ottomans from Tanzimat to Democracy (Stamboul: Abdülhamid University Press, 2011)

… The Ottoman establishment’s slide into irrelevance had continued with the 1903 election, and it accelerated sharply in 1907. That year, the conservative factions and the paternalistic-liberal Constitutionalists, even in combination, were unable to win a majority in the Majlis. Together, they held about 45 percent of the parliamentary seats, most of them through co-opting rural headmen rather than through actual votes. The rival Democratic Party increased its share to 41 percent, with the balance being held by various socialist and regionalist parties who none of the large factions regarded as acceptable coalition partners. No single bloc could command the confidence of the lower house, and a minority government was inevitable.

The disarray in the Porte was no less. The Karatheodori Pasha government had been forced out in 1904 due to infighting at court, with the vizier resigning to assume the office of Prince of Samos. His successor, Abdul Hadi Pasha, was able but tempestuous, clashing with both his ministers and the Sultan before being banned from court in 1906. In the toxic political atmosphere of the time, a strong vizier could not be found.

The result was the “Year of Five Governments,” a period of thirteen months during 1907-08 in which one weak administration followed another and in which neither parliament nor vizier could effectively govern. As the comedy of errors played out in the capital, real power continued to devolve to the large cities – most of which had already instituted universal suffrage for municipal elections and had democratic or trade-union-dominated councils – and to the unofficial governments that had grown up in frontier provinces during and after the war. In 1906, about 20 percent of sanjaks had parallel governing institutions; by 1908, more than half did, and even some vilayets had “people’s councils” existing alongside the officially-sanctioned advisory bodies. Some of these had grown entrenched enough to conduct the majority of tax collection in their jurisdictions, starving the Porte of revenue and also giving them a powerful way to buy the loyalty of local police and army garrisons.

Parallel governments were particularly common in the western Balkans, the industrial regions of northwest Anatolia, and the Arab provinces. The last of these were dominated by the emergent Arab political movement, which was Ottomanist and loyal to the Sultan but which conceived the state as a Turkish-Arab empire rather than a Turkish one. The parallel governments in the Levant and Mesopotamia elected Arab governors to replace the Sultan’s Turkish appointees, and demanded equality of the Arabic language and equal priority in national development.

In central Arabia and Yemen, which were already recognized as autonomous, central authority decayed even faster. The desert Bedouins recognized the Sultan as religious overlord, as they had always done, but ignored the commands of a government that they saw falling even further into corruption and decadence. Politically, they drifted closer to the sheikhs of the Trucial States, who in turn had begun to accept their Belloist-inflected Wahhabism. The Yemenis too professed loyalty to the Sultan but aligned more closely with their wartime allies in Eritrea and Ethiopia, with chiefs turning to Emperor Menelik to settle their disputes more often than they turned to the Porte.

Faced with the widespread disintegration of central authority, the Sultan agreed in 1908 to let the Democratic Party form a government. The new vizier, Mehmet Hussein Pasha, announced an ambitious democratization program, recognized the unofficial governments, and called for a conference of democratic factions to draft a package of constitutional revisions. But without a majority in the Majlis, and with the Senate and central bank opposed, he was able to enact very little of his agenda. Within a year, his government had also succumbed to infighting and a sense of futility.

By this time the crisis of was having a deep impact on the economy; two years of ineffective government and disputed lines of authority translated to decaying infrastructure, stalled development and devalued currency. Inflation approached 50 percent and unemployment rose. In some provinces, the industrialists, who had hitherto been staunch establishment supporters, threw their support behind the parallel governments in desperation, making accommodations with the workers’ councils and trade unions that dominated the unofficial sanjak councils in industrial Anatolia.

In October 1909, the Sultan dissolved the parliament and announced that, for the duration of the emergency, he would rule by decree. He appointed a neutral technocratic government and a new slate of provincial governors, including many Arabs and Balkan Christians, and ordered the army to dissolve all unofficial institutions and restore central rule. But it was too late: many military garrisons had already been co-opted, and a broad majority of people regarded the Porte’s auto-coup as illegitimate. The Ottoman people wanted true democracy, not a return to the Tanzimat.

It was at this time that one opposition voice, that of Lev Davidovich Bronshtein, began to be heard above all others. During the past decade, Bronshtein, who had married into a loyalist Bedouin tribe, had risen high in the Arab Ottomanist movement, and as a follower of the Bahá'u'lláh, argued for a particularly inclusive conception of both Arab and Ottoman identity. That ethos would inform the proposal he made in February 1910: that if the Sultan was unwilling or unable to create a modern democracy, then the opposition should do so itself. He called for a national parallel legislature, similar to those that existed in the sanjaks and vilayets, to be elected by universal suffrage throughout the empire. This parliament, once elected, would assume governing powers by default and would draft a new constitution.

His call caught fire among the democratic opposition, which was deeply divided on ideological and policy matters but which saw such an election as a way to break the logjam. At a clandestine conference in Stamboul, the election date was set for May, and an electoral authority was formed to coordinate relations with the parallel governments and organize the voting where there were none. More than seven thousand candidates registered for the poll: liberal democrats, socialists, communists, autonomists, Abacarists, even some conservatives and industrialists who saw the vote as their best hope for stability and rule of law. The opposition now included nearly the entire Ottoman political spectrum.

The government recognized this challenge for what it was, and reacted as might be expected: the two months preceding the election were marked with mass arrests, raids on opposition offices, and in some areas, a virtual shooting war between the opposition and the police. At least a thousand people were killed in the fighting, and in some provinces, the Sultan was able to shut the election down, but when the day came, voting took place across more than three quarters of the empire, and the authority certified the election of 277 representatives. A quorum of the council was able to make its way to the opposition stronghold of Haifa for the opening session.

The Sultan ordered the loyal army units to move on Haifa, hoping to decapitate the opposition with one stroke. The provisional parliament fortified the city and prepared to resist. But the conflict would end, not with a climactic battle, but with the Ottoman Revolution…
______

[1] For those who are interested, the others are Paris, Berlin, Odessa, Los Angeles, Buenos Aires, Cairo, Bombay, Trivandrum, Tokyo, Dakar and Ilorin.
 
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So where is the new Pope going to live? It seems clear he can't go back to Rome, is the Curia going to be setting up shop more or less permanently in Rio after the Conclave?

I assume the Ottoman Empire is going to end up as another post-Westphalian conglomeration after this reolution.
 
And now we have an Ottoman Revolution led by Trotsky. Didn't see that coming.

More seriously, this should be very interesting, if also possibly devastating in terms of damage to the state. It's a good way to bring together the nationalities of the Empire (including the many Jewish ones in Salonika) behind one cause and avoiding the kind of nationalist strife that utterly ruined A-H. Not that I expect this to be a cure-all by any means, but it might delay it with democratic reforms for long enough for further changes better suited to fixing those particular issues.

He was pretty white, yes, but he spent his Church career among people who mostly weren't. He'll definitely shake things up, both because he comes from outside the entrenched Church power circles and because he's a remarkable man in his own right. (Mexico seems to have had quite a few remarkable churchmen at this time, born before or within a few years of the POD - both candidates at TTL's Conclave existed in OTL, and I changed their careers only a little.)
Wow, I completely forgot to see if he was from near the POD and assumed he was an invented character. That's certainly surprising, and he'll definitely fit the mold for a pastoral Pope that will nonetheless rock the boat. I like this direction. I'm assuming his conservative dogma makes him unsympathetic to Muslims in the colonies though?

His perspective will change the Church profoundly, and will cause conflicts that continue to this day, but after TTL's nineteenth century, you may well be right that it's the best long-term course.
Hmm. Yeah, I can see that. There'll certainly be controversy surrounding him as a historical leader by TTL modern day what with his un/semi-intentional meddling in colonial politics.

Watch that Angolan cardinal. He'll be a major challenger to Portugal's way of doing things in its colonies, starting with the very fact that he'll have Portuguese priests under him.
Exactly what I was getting at. Between him, typical colonial interests, native unrest, and a larger Portuguese migration to those areas, things will be rife for conflict in Portuguese Africa. Whether it'll be sad and horrible or a great step towards a equal society still remains to be seen.

The Bahamas are peripheral, but they're also part of the United States now, which means that Bahamians will be able to gain cultural influence in American cities and will interact heavily with South Carolina. It will be part of the Afro-Atlantic network, although not the most major of parts.
Makes sense.

So where is the new Pope going to live? It seems clear he can't go back to Rome, is the Curia going to be setting up shop more or less permanently in Rio after the Conclave?
I would assume Rio for a while longer, at least a few more decades. Give it time and I figure he'll end up back in Rome once memories of the war fade. Of course, that's based on the idea that Celestine rebuilds the Church's reputation to a point where pre-war anticlericalism is considered the only reason to oppose it, which might not be the case.
 
I really do wonder what the Ottoman revolution is actually going to change in the Empire. Indeed, I wonder how much of the Ottoman army has actually stayed loyal to the Sultan as well. Still, it sounds as if he'll eventually be overthrown by those once loyal to him, so maybe the numbers don't matter.

Also, how much of the surrounding hinterland of Salonika is Jewish? Is it still mostly Greek/Turkish or have Jews moved into rural areas too?

Brilliant update as always.
 
Hmm.. the fact that it's referred to as an Ottoman revolution suggests some sort of continuity with the old state; will there be a forced transition of power to a younger, more pliable Sultan?
 
The term "Ottoman Revolution" implies that Anatolia and Arabia will still be ruled by a Sultan after the civil war, but in order to maintain his power, the Sultan will have to bend to the will of the rebels: real democracy, and a dual Arab-Turkish monarchy. I'm not sure if the Balkans will remain Ottoman after the Revolution, though - some of the Greeks and Bulgarians in the Empire might want to join Greece or Bulgaria, and some of the Jews would probably like to live in a bigger Salonika... but the new Ottoman state would surely be more progressive than Greece, Bulgaria and Salonika, and they might prefer being minorities in a progressive state than living in a conservative state.

Salonika itself... it seems like a really interesting (if probably a bit overcrowded) city. The cultural, Bahà'ì-influenced Jewish nationalism of this timeline will surely help solve some of the ethnic and religious conflicts that are plaguing the city.
 
There's a lot more opportunity in Paris or Rio, and there have been Vietnamese in both cities for some time, but as you say, the islands have a better climate, and there are niches that could be filled. The possibility of becoming a substantial minority rather than a small one might also be attractive - it would take less than 20,000 Vietnamese to become 10 percent of the population of Guadeloupe or Martinique. I'd expect that some would go, although the metropolitan cities would be the main destinations.

I don't think it's particularly likely to have Vietnamese emigration to the Antilles but the reunion seems much more plausible : there are a lot of Chinese who came at this moment IOTL.
Haïti seems in a much better shape here (will you do some cross timeline and have a prince noir and congo societies?), let's hope for the better. A random thought : is there a canal across central America and have Americans done anything in the region?

About Salonika, I would think it's far from being the only center of Judaism, as there were already quite a few Jews in Palestine : those ones would like to reclaim the holy land, wouldn't they? Is there any movement to make an Israel in an other place (EDT fight and be right had it in Kimberley, that was fun).
Now an Ottoman revolution, that get interesting, the old model had lived the moment it accepted parallel institutions. However it could really go both ways : a relatively quick and clean coup or a much messier civil war with ethnic tensions in the Balkans, socialist workers trying to instore a revolutionary regime and maybe the odd Arabic prince (Rachidi, Saudi, ect) establishing an independent Arabia and Hejaz.
 
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