Malê Rising

Postwar Eurasia II: Politics is war by other means

Renate Kasuba [1], The Creation of Modern Germany (Berlin: Allgemeine, 2007)

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… Although physically devastated from the war, the North German Confederation experienced less social dislocation than most of the other major powers. Part of the reason was high morale; Germany had come out of the war an unmistakable victor, its economic hegemony stretched across Central Europe, and give or take Alsace-Lorraine, the dream of German unification had finally been achieved. Another part was, paradoxically, the very extent of German losses; the high number of casualties meant that there was a labor shortage even with wartime contracts ending, and the destruction suffered by front-line districts meant that there were jobs to be had rebuilding. Many of the state governments, with the notable exception of Prussia, assisted veterans in finding jobs and adjusting to civilian life, meaning that the problems caused by unemployed soldiers in countries like Spain, Hungary and Japan were largely absent in Germany.

But all was far from smooth. The war, and the postwar labor shortage, brought hundreds of thousands of immigrants to the German states, including demobilized African and Indian troops, ethnic German refugees from war-torn Hungary, and labor migrants from Poland, Bulgaria, the Slovak lands and Hungary itself. These immigrants were heavily concentrated in the industrial regions – in some cities amounting to as much as ten percent of the population – and the influx caused acute housing shortages and resentment among some of the prewar residents. In a few cases, immigrants were subjected to violent attacks from which they defended themselves, threatening to spark riots.

The class structure of German society was also shaken by the war. Losses among the aristocracy, which provided most of the prewar officers, resulted in many middle-class and even working-class soldiers being promoted to officer rank; as well, the sheer number of men mobilized during the war required officers to be drawn from outside the traditional elites. These men, many of them trade unionists or intellectuals, returned home determined to challenge the anti-union measures and censorship enacted during the war, which the government showed no sign of moving to repeal. The labor shortages worked in their favor, empowering workers against the industrialists and compelling the latter to deal even with illicit unions rather than provoking boycotts by attempting to shut them down. And the workers’ struggle extended to the political system, challenging antiquated institutions such as the Prussian three-class system and the powerful aristocratic houses that existed in many state legislatures.

The fate of the southern German states was also a point of contention. It was a foregone conclusion that they would join a united Germany – all of them acceded to the North German Confederation either before the war ended or within days of the armistice – but their form of government remained in question. Württemberg’s transition was seamless, and indeed was not really a transition – the king simply submitted to North German authority and kept his throne – but the other two southern German states were republics under the effective control of radical pan-Germanists and army officers, and their long-term stability was uncertain.

In Baden, this problem was resolved fairly easily. Although the former Grand Duke had supported the Franco-Austrian alliance during the war, he had not otherwise blotted his copybook, and his liberal rule was well remembered. Shortly after the armistice, he abdicated in favor of his son, rendering moot the controversy over whether an opponent of pan-Germanism should be allowed to resume the throne. His son was acceptable to all but the most radical of the junta, and promised to respect the liberal reforms of the republican constitution (including universal male suffrage and reduction of the Herrenhaus to a largely symbolic role), so after a short debate, the republican council restored the monarchy and dissolved itself so that the new Grand Duke could call an election.

In Bavaria, however, the Wittelsbachs had stained their record beyond hope of redemption due to their violent prewar suppression of pan-Germanism and the royal army’s excesses during the war. There could be no question of restoring the king; in fact, in a referendum called by the republican government to strengthen its hand, less than 30 percent of the voters favored continuing the monarchy. In negotiations with Wilhelm II and the princes of the Confederation, the junta agreed to call an election and hand over power to a civilian legislature and president, but would not compromise on either republican rule or the reforms proclaimed by the postwar government. At the election, held in November 1897, the Social Democratic Party of Bavaria won the presidency and 45 percent of parliamentary seats, and for the first time in any German state, the Social Democrats were not only a member of the government but its senior partner.

All this played out amid the background of Wilhelm’s quest to create a German Empire, in which he would become the equal of other major European monarchs; indeed, the idea that not only Queen Victoria and Napoleon V but Rudolph of Austria still outranked him was a source of never-ending irritation. This quest proved far more difficult than Wilhelm had anticipated. He was personally popular, and his audacity during the war was widely admired, but neither the public nor his fellow princes was inclined to accept him as an autocratic ruler. Rather than being offered the throne by acclamation, as he had expected, Wilhelm confronted a Reichstag that insisted on political reforms and a coalition of princes (including the Bavarian president) who demanded concessions to state autonomy and restrictions on the would-be emperor’s power to make war. The federal election of February 1898, in which the Social Democrats and liberal parties made extensive gains, only sharpened the battle lines.

It was not until late 1899 – more than two years after the armistice – that Wilhelm was finally able to win approval for his imperial ambitions, and in doing so, he was forced to make concessions that he would never have even considered had he not wanted the title of Emperor so badly. The imperial constitution would include responsible government, a Reichstag apportioned strictly according to population rather than favoring conservative rural areas, and protection of free speech and collective bargaining. It would also include, at the insistence of the princes, a strong Reichsrat, guarantees of state autonomy and strict separation of the imperial and Prussian governments: among other things, the Chancellor would not be permitted to hold any Prussian office.

Possibly the greatest concession of all was that the imperial throne would be elective as in Holy Roman times, with the succession determined by the princes as represented in the Reichsrat. Wilhelm was guaranteed a victory in the first election – in fact, it was agreed that no other candidates would be nominated – but it was made clear that the throne was the gift of the states and that Wilhelm’s son was by no means entitled to succeed. Wilhelm grudgingly agreed to this provision, anticipating that Prussia would always be able to bribe the other princes into compliance and that no other royal house would ever be able to gain enough support to oust the Hohenzollerns – an assumption which, unlike his belief that he would be acclaimed Emperor, would prove largely correct.

On November 11, 1899, the new imperial constitution was approved by large majorities in the Reichstag and the Bundesrat (which under the new regime would continue as the Reichsrat). The constitution was to take effect on January 1, 1900, at which time Wilhelm would be crowned in Berlin as German Emperor…

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Terence Mills, From Victoria to Edward: The British Empire at the Close of the Century (London: Ploughman, 1970)

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… In his address to Parliament on 23 June 1897, Prime Minister Cranbrook proclaimed that the Great War had been a victory for the entire empire. “From Britain and Ireland, from Canada to Australasia, from the ancient cities of India to the African savanna, the Queen’s subjects worked together and the Queen’s soldiers fought together. We of Britain could not have stood without the valiant men of our dominions and colonies, nor could they have fought as they did without our guiding hand.” And as if to punctuate his remarks, the Honours List for July included more than a hundred Indian and African officers and industrialists as well as many from the dominions, all receiving knighthoods and a few even obtaining peerages. The Maharajahs of Baroda and Travancore, whose industrial output had been invaluable to the war effort, became British earls, and the Ooni of Ife was honoured with a viscountcy, making them the first from the colonies to sit in the House of Lords.

In fact, the picture of harmony painted by Lord Cranbrook was at best half true. The British public did feel great pride in the empire’s shared struggle and considerable goodwill toward its peoples; a parade of Indian regiments through London in August was met by more than a million spectators cheering themselves hoarse, and the newspapers were lavish in the colonial troops’ praise. But in the background, Britain faced the same industrial unrest and class conflicts as France or the Ottoman Empire, and overlaid on this conflict were the persistent questions of Irish and Indian autonomy and of the dominions’ role in steering the empire’s course.

The election of February 1898 – the first after the war – returned Cranbrook’s Conservatives to office, but as a minority government with a greatly reduced number of seats. The new government remained opposed to both labour activism and home rule, but sought, in both Britain and Ireland, to defuse unrest with paternalistic welfare measures. In Britain, Cranbrook proposed Bismarckian social insurance programs; in Ireland, he set aside funds to purchase large estates and distribute them for free to returning veterans. He also increased the budget for Irish primary education and promised a “rule of equity” under which the civil service would actively recruit and promote Irish candidates.

As he had been during the war, however, Cranbrook was caught between the demands of the British workers and Irish nationalists on the one hand, and the right wing of his own party and the Lords on the other. The returning veterans and trade-unionists demanded universal suffrage, full employment and support for worker control of factories, while the Irish nationalists would settle for nothing short of home rule, and neither were inclined to be mollified by Cranbrook’s proposals. The proposals themselves were opposed by a significant part of the Conservative caucus and, although Cranbrook was able to pass them with the support of the Liberals and some of the minor parties, they stalled in the House of Lords, and Queen Victoria declined to intervene to break the logjam.

The result was that, for much of 1898, the British industrial cities were the scene of strikes and protests, some of which degenerated into clashes with the police. Ireland, with a large population of unemployed veterans and disappointed expectations of postwar concessions, was considerably worse. The streets of Dublin degenerated into a four-cornered brawl between secular nationalists, Catholic nationalists, leftists and unionists, with the three nationalist factions sometimes cooperating against the unionists and the government and sometimes fighting each other. Terrorist acts against government installations and rival organizations, including shooting and bombing, were common, with the bombs escalating in size and sophistication during 1898 and 1899. The police sided more or less openly with the unionists and were accused of terrorist acts themselves; although their involvement was never proven, the allegations diminished what lingering trust the Irish still had in the government, and turned large portions of the cities into effectively lawless zones.

In India, the “partnership raj” that had been declared by the Government of India and the Congress in 1896 came under serious strain. Many members of the colonial administration had viewed the wartime political and economic concessions as temporary, to be curtailed or rolled back entirely once peace came. Also, the Indian government was under pressure from British industrialists to roll back competition from Indian-owned businesses, and from Indian feudal landlords to reverse the partial land reforms that had occurred in Congress-controlled areas. The Congress, of course, had a different view of these matters and did not hesitate to make its position known.

The Viceroy in Calcutta declared that he was still committed to the partnership idea and refused to dismiss the three Congress ministers. However, he also did little to restrain the provincial governors and civil servants who delayed or denied Indian business licenses and put restrictions on opposition meetings and publications, nor did he intervene in the landlords’ judicial attempts to reclaim their estates. The Indian courts, dominated by British judges, largely upheld these administrative actions; in those cases where Indian judges ruled against the administration, their judgments were usually reversed on appeal. The Congress-controlled ministries were able to make inroads and sometimes even secure the dismissal of particularly obstructionist officials, but the delays stifled the postwar retooling of Indian industry and added to the number of unemployed veterans in the slums. And in the countryside, the veterans added to the strength of the Congress-organized peasant self-defense groups and engaged in an undeclared war against other demobilized soldiers hired by the landlords.

Cranbrook’s response to these developments was to throw up his hands. His wartime Indian reform package had been severely diluted by right-wing Tories and the Lords before being enacted, and while he cited the postwar unrest as evidence that stronger reforms should have been made, he was unwilling to risk his political neck again for measures that his party refused to pass. He was indeed of two minds himself about whether the Congress – which he still viewed fundamentally as an organization of troublemakers – really deserved the concessions it had obtained. In the words of the Voice of Labour, Cranbrook fiddled while India burned, although it was more a slow smoldering than a conflagration…

… With the war ended, a peace treaty ratified and the immediate demobilization in hand, the Imperial War Cabinet dissolved in April 1898. Lord Cranbrook was happy enough to see the back of it, the dominions less so. The dominion governments had got a taste of steering the empire’s industrial and economic policy, and while they remained strongly pro-British – especially English Canada and Australasia – they feared a return to industrial policies designed to benefit British trade at their expense. Also, Australasia increasingly wanted a voice in colonial policy; it saw itself as a British cadet in Southeast Asia and the Pacific, and there were calls to put some of the Southeast Asian princely states under joint administration. India, as well, viewed itself as a British cadet even while remaining a colony itself; Indians were represented in the Southeast Asian colonial service and their merchants set up shop in the ports of Cochin-China and Annam, which gave Australasia one more reason for wanting a forum to mediate the competing interests.

There seemed little prospect of reviving an imperial cabinet, but the Canadian call for a quadrennial imperial summit met with a better reception, as did discussion of imperial sporting and academic links – the sort of thing that would enhance imperial good feeling with a minimum of political commitment. After some preliminary bargaining, the British and dominion governments and the Government of India agreed in principle to hold the first imperial conference in 1900 and appointed a secretariat to agree on its agenda.

But in the meantime, two events would dramatically reshape British domestic politics. In April 1899, Queen Victoria, her constitution weakened by the stresses of the war, fell ill. At her advanced age, the sickness progressed rapidly, and on the twenty-third of that month, the Queen died, bringing the 57-year-old Prince Albert Edward to the throne as Edward VII. And in the summer of the same year, the Cranbrook government became embroiled in a dual scandal: the Irish police were implicated in the sale of army surplus weapons to unionist gangs, and in Manchester, a panicked militia commander ordered his men to fire on a crowd of demonstrators, killing six and wounding more than a hundred. On September 1, the government fell, and a general election was scheduled for November 21…

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Aram Sakalian, The Young Ottomans from Tanzimat to Democracy (Stamboul: Abdülhamid University Press, 2011)

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… With the Great War ended, the Ottoman government found itself in a strange kind of paralysis. The empire was among the winners of the war: it was the unchallenged master of the Caucasus, maintained a foothold in the Crimea, and had growing influence in Bornu, Persia and the vast new Turkestani republic. But it had been a near thing, and the battle had been devastating.

The Ottoman war debt was enormous, and the reparations specified in the Washington treaty not nearly enough to cover it; the fact that most of it was held by Ottoman citizens provided a respite, but not much more than that. The paper lira printed during the war were worth one sixth of a prewar gold lira. The war had also laid bare the divisions between the traditional ruling class and the growing number of industrial workers and urban professionals, between the imperial authorities and Balkan Christian nationalists, and between the heartland and frontier. Large parts of the country had got used to ruling themselves while occupied or besieged, and were reluctant to return to central control; Bulgaria, although pacified, was sullen and bid fair to become a running sore.

And in the midst of these crises, both the Constitutionalist Party and the conservative faction had run out of ideas. The Constitutionalists’ paternalistic liberalism had worked well enough in the 1870s and had facilitated necessary reforms, but it had no answers to the challenges of the late 1890s. The conservatives lacked even that much ideological coherence, and were united mainly by desire to protect their own privileges and return to an idealized past. The radical democrats, already strong in the major cities, expanded to fill the vacuum, as did the socialists, Turkish nationalists, regional autonomists and a new brand of Ottoman nationalists inspired by French futurism.

The government, unsure of its hold on power, hesitated to call an election, seeing what had already happened in Germany, France and Britain. This, in turn, fed the unrest in the cities and towns as an alliance of trade unions, returning veterans and democrats demanded an immediate vote followed by reforms to the political system. By early 1899, much of Anatolia, the Balkans and the Levantine ports were paralyzed by strikes, adding to the burden on the already-strapped economy. In some areas it seemed that rebellion was imminent, and in May, the government finally gave in and called a vote.

The poll was held in early summer, and the establishment parties combined for slightly less than 60 percent of the seats in the lower house, but most of their support came from the rural districts where votes were cast by village headmen. It was clear that in a real election they would have lost decisively. The Democratic Party took 30 percent of the lower house, making a near-sweep of the capital and winning even in outlying cities like Sarajevo and Haifa that had historically voted for the Constitutionalists. A scattering of other opposition parties won 12 percent of the seats, mainly in the cities but with some regional parties also finding support among the independent headmen of the hill tribes. Several of the provincial councils also fell to opposition control, meaning that the establishment parties’ hold on the senate was also put in jeopardy.

Neither the Constitutionalists nor the conservatives were willing to form a coalition with the democrats, but neither could come anywhere near a majority on their own. As had happened with previous hung parliaments, they went to the Sultan to mediate. The Porte cobbled together a unity government of liberals and conservatives – something that caused defections from both parties, but still kept a bare majority of the lower house – and which largely represented the Sultan’s wishes and priorities.

The new grand vizier, 66-year-old Alexander Karatheodori Pasha, was a neutral figure chosen for his experience as a respected cabinet minister and diplomat, but what caused the greatest stir about him was that he was Greek. His government included an Armenian, two loyalist Bulgarians and a Bosnian Serb, and the message was clear: that minorities would have a place in the highest levels of Ottoman government if they gave over their ambitions for independence. At the same time, he took a firm hand in negotiating with Bulgarian leaders for a renewed charter of autonomy. His job was to act as a technocrat, mediate the empire’s political and ethnic differences, and return its finances to a sound footing. He was able to succeed in some measure with the Sultan’s backing, but since the coalition that supported him in parliament could agree on little beyond self-preservation, anything that required legislation was out of the question and budget commitments had to be fought for lira by lira.

With the parliament unable to agree on anything important, local institutions stepped in to fill the gap, aided by the fact that the central government often couldn’t decide what to do with them. The Sarajevo Commune – the elected council that had taken charge of the city while it was under siege – extended its authority across the sanjak and was even able to organize an election; the district governor nominally refused to recognize it, but realized that he couldn’t do anything without its support and rarely challenged its decisions. Similar councils sprang up in several other sanjaks, each with its own mix of parties and method of selection. In the hills of Albania and the Caucasus, more traditional authorities asserted themselves.

Outside the large cities, the ferment was greatest in the Balkans and the large Arab towns. The Arabs in some ways had the worst of both worlds: they weren’t considered a minority, but they were still thought of as backward by many Turks and had been given low priority for development. There were Arabs in the Alexander Karatheodori government, mostly drawn from traditional elites, but they were underrepresented and the Arab ministers were widely thought of as corrupt. The Arabs – influenced in some cases by the ideologies that Jewish immigrants had brought with them to the coastal cities – demanded effective local government and a fair share of imperial spending. Their movement would draw from such diverse sources as Marx, Abacar, Bello, Abay Qunanbaiuli and the Bahá'u'lláh, and would be the first step in the career of the man who would become known as Lev Pasha…

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[1] Renate Marianne Kasuba (b. 1958) is a German politician, academic and popular historian. Her great-grandfather, Adalbert (née Akalemwa) Kasuba (1879-1947), was born in the then-kingdom of Barotseland and fought as a private soldier in the Bavarian front of the Great War, settling in Bremen after the war and becoming a machinist and trade unionist. Her grandfather and father both held elected office, the former as a Social Democrat and the latter as a Social Catholic. Frau Kasuba is a professor of German literature at the University of Bremen and the author of 11 books on German and African history as well as a volume of short stories. She was a member of the Reichstag for Bremen as a Social Democrat from 1987 to 1996, a member of the Reichsrat from 1996 to 2003, and president of the Bremen City Senate from 2003. She married architect Thilo Mahler in 1980 and has three children.
 
Possibly the greatest concession of all was that the imperial throne would be elective as in Holy Roman times, with the succession determined by the princes as represented in the Reichsrat. Wilhelm was guaranteed a victory in the first election – in fact, it was agreed that no other candidates would be nominated – but it was made clear that the throne was the gift of the states and that Wilhelm’s son was by no means entitled to succeed. Wilhelm grudgingly agreed to this provision, anticipating that Prussia would always be able to bribe the other princes into compliance and that no other royal house would ever be able to gain enough support to oust the Hohenzollerns – an assumption which, unlike his belief that he would be acclaimed Emperor, would prove largely correct.

Aw.:(

And here I was hoping for a Habsburg surprise coup.
 
It's interesting that the piece on the British Empire does not mention religion as such regarding the Irish Troubles (or perhaps I should reserve the capital "T" for when things get really bad later?:eek:). I was waiting for that shoe to drop in particular in reference to the promises to recruit more civil servants from among the Irish--sure, there could be more Irish, but what if they are overwhelmingly Protestant Irish? Not only does OTL indicate that sectarian allegiances would be salient--it was noted long ago in this timeline that religious affiliation has tended to be more prominent in politics here (and race a bit less so). Indeed two of three core FAR powers were Catholic nations and the Pope is still a political loose cannon, more so than at any point in modern times in OTL, and the Catholic nations are polarized between the conservatives and liberals.

So all that said, traditional European sectarian conflict between Catholics and Protestants as such seems remarkably muted! It certainly doesn't look worse than OTL and is arguably less.

I suppose the fact that when all was said and done, the Irish did loyally muster to Queen Victoria's colors, whereas the liberal/reactionary spectrum among Catholics does hold in Ireland too, and most Protestants are not too dense to notice this is the case, means that everyone (or all but a few radicals on both sides, few enough to be ignored) is letting that lie. I suppose among the more radical Irish separatists there is no notion of Ulster being expected to split off from the rest of Ireland, and of course Unionists have no intention of letting any part of Ireland, large or small, leave the UK. If Ireland remains a whole, and still more if it remains part of the United Kingdom, then Protestants have little to fear of a tyranny of the Catholic majority. Still more because the Protestants tend to be considerably higher up the social ladder, whereas Irish who are so radical as to attack them precisely for that reason will tend to be radical Leftists first and sectarian Catholics second if at all--it's Reds the Protestant establishment has to fear, not Papists. In that conflict the conservative Church hierarchy might be their best allies!:eek::p

So I'm not so much wondering--that is, I'm not so much prodding for answers, since time and more writing will reveal them--as observing, that for a timeline that has made so much of religion, it isn't showing as the sort of flashpoint OTL experience leads us to fear--yet.

And for the moment that seems true all across the world, quite remarkably so.

Dang it Jonathan, you're giving the adoration of God a good name!:rolleyes:

:p
 
Aw.:(

And here I was hoping for a Habsburg surprise coup.

I certainly wasn't expecting that, but I had to wonder if the other princely families of the Empire wouldn't start a revolving door going every generation.

Of course, the overwhelming power of Prussia, however successfully it is hedged in by a genuinely federal constitution as here, has got to show up somehow; even with the Hannoverian and Saxon houses* (I'm sure of the former, not the latter) surviving here, and the former having some extra weight due to its relation to the British royals, no other kingdom comes close to the dignity of Prussia and its Hohenzollern house. The Imperium is theirs to lose, and they'd have to be really egregiously foolish to blow it.

But blow it they can; hopefully this reality leads to great care and attention being given to the proper political education of the Prussian heirs, teaching any really dull ones to maintain a dignified silence if they can't quite achieve mastery of playing the political game actively.
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*I'd have thrown the Wittelsbachs in with those two, as the three houses most likely to be capable of giving the Hohenzollerns a serious run for their money, having the impression that the heir in WWI years OTL was actually rather widely respected, but of course they've committed political suicide ITTL!
 
Just great, altogether. It was a nice touch, the Greek Ottoman grand vizier.

Excuse me if I missed it, but what happened to the Crimean Khanate? It's probably long gone; but I do like the idea of the Khanate of Crimea in the space age.
 
You know, at this point France is huge. I'm not quite sure how big the state is, but the areas that are legally France easily make it the second biggest European country after Russia and probably make it on par with the whole of the rest of Western Europe in land area.
 
You know, at this point France is huge. I'm not quite sure how big the state is, but the areas that are legally France easily make it the second biggest European country after Russia and probably make it on par with the whole of the rest of Western Europe in land area.

Actually France ITTL is significantly smaller than the French Empire of OTL, as it lost Indochina, its Pacific possessions and controls far less of Africa.
 
Actually France ITTL is significantly smaller than the French Empire of OTL, as it lost Indochina, its Pacific possessions and controls far less of Africa.

But he's talking about what legally is considered part of the metropole....in this way France is quite big.
 
One of the things that I've been interested to learn about the British in India is how independent or not their local commanders war. After the 1857 Revolt, the Crown took control, as we all know - but local leaders of the EITC often still remained powerful on the ground. In other words, there was more of a shift in London and Kolkata than anywhere else. A huge part of the governance of India was up to local elites - often Indian with British aides holding massive influence.

This led to idiots like Dyer (responsible for the Amritsar massacre) feeling that they could get away with atrocities in the name of "security" because local elites would protect them, like O'Dwyer did for Dyer.

Or to O'Dwyer putting Dyer up to it, depending on who you credit.

But that dynamic definitely exists in TTL, with local officials and elites having enormous power to obstruct the decrees of the central government. The power of those three Congress ministers has limits on the ground. And as matters develop, there will be alliances between some Indian elites and the Raj against more radical demands for democracy and the left wing of the nationalist movement.

And here I was hoping for a Habsburg surprise coup.

I'm afraid the Habsburgs will stay out and look south and east rather than north - the politics don't really work, both for religious reasons and because the war and its aftermath have crystallized a separate Austrian identity.

You'll note, though, that I said Wilhelm was "largely" correct. As Shevek23 says, Prussia has major institutional advantages as well as the power of incumbency, but there will be near misses in the future as well as at least one occasion when the Reichsrat forces the Hohenzollerns to nominate someone other than the heir apparent.

It's interesting that the piece on the British Empire does not mention religion as such regarding the Irish Troubles (or perhaps I should reserve the capital "T" for when things get really bad later?:eek:).

As seen in both the most recent update and the second 1898 narrative (post 2738), some of the nationalists are militantly Catholic, and even the left-wing nationalists refer to the unionists as "Proddies." There are definite religious overtones to the terror campaign.

The British government isn't going to openly favor Irish Protestants over Catholics, though, both because (as you mention) the Irish Catholics fought and died for Britain, and because it's trying to calm Ireland down rather than stir it up further. Of course, covert aid to the Protestants is another story, and the Cranbrook government has fallen over exactly that. And as you say, any home-rule deal may involve an alliance between the Unionists and the conservative Catholics against the socialists. People in both camps are talking about that already.

So I'm not so much wondering--that is, I'm not so much prodding for answers, since time and more writing will reveal them--as observing, that for a timeline that has made so much of religion, it isn't showing as the sort of flashpoint OTL experience leads us to fear--yet.

Possibly because, with the exception of a few countries (e.g. Ireland, Germany, Switzerland, India, the Balkans), most nations have a single dominant religion, and many of the religiously diverse ones have other factors that mediate the religious tensions (nationalism in Germany and India; cantonal autonomy in Switzerland). Intra-religious conflict is more important in many places than inter-religious conflict. Of course, intra-religious conflict can be pretty bad - Spain and Belgium aren't very happy places right now - and neither are the places like Ireland or Bulgaria where inter-religious tensions have gone hot.

Of course, the overwhelming power of Prussia, however successfully it is hedged in by a genuinely federal constitution as here, has got to show up somehow; even with the Hannoverian and Saxon houses* (I'm sure of the former, not the latter) surviving here, and the former having some extra weight due to its relation to the British royals, no other kingdom comes close to the dignity of Prussia and its Hohenzollern house.

Hannover and Saxony both exist, but their royal houses would start with a much smaller base of support in the Reichsrat, not to mention that even if some other princes are dissatisfied with the Hohenzollerns, they won't necessarily want the Hanoverians or Saxons in their place. It's hard to knock off the incumbent.

But blow it they can; hopefully this reality leads to great care and attention being given to the proper political education of the Prussian heirs, teaching any really dull ones to maintain a dignified silence if they can't quite achieve mastery of playing the political game actively.

They'll actually have to be very careful about who they put forward as the heir, let the good ones develop a track record and make sure the dull ones are put to pasture - as noted, there will be an occasion on which the Reichsrat rejects an unacceptable Hohenzollern heir and sends them back to the drawing board. They'll be much more judicious after that.

Will we see Persia soon?

Briefly in the next update and in more detail during the 1910s; Afghanistan will also figure in some detail around that time.

Lev Pasha has me so intrigued...

He's appeared a couple of times during the war, but you ain't seen nothing yet.

Right now the Ottoman Empire is in a race to see if it can find a new direction for reform before a revolution breaks out - Lev will play a part in one or the other, or maybe both.

Just great, altogether. It was a nice touch, the Greek Ottoman grand vizier.

Excuse me if I missed it, but what happened to the Crimean Khanate? It's probably long gone; but I do like the idea of the Khanate of Crimea in the space age.

Alexander Karatheodori Pasha was an Ottoman statesman in OTL, and was Prince of Samos; in TTL he's risen farther due to his successful diplomacy after the 1877-78 war, his help in keeping Greece neutral in 1893, and his association with the Constitutionalist party.

The Crimea is an autonomous region in Russia, with some Ottoman concessions. It's no longer a khanate, as an independent Crimean state proved indefensible during the war. The Khanates of Shirvan and the Caucasus still exist, though, so there will be Khans in TTL's twentieth century.

You know, at this point France is huge. I'm not quite sure how big the state is, but the areas that are legally France easily make it the second biggest European country after Russia and probably make it on par with the whole of the rest of Western Europe in land area.

Actually France ITTL is significantly smaller than the French Empire of OTL, as it lost Indochina, its Pacific possessions and controls far less of Africa.

But he's talking about what legally is considered part of the metropole....in this way France is quite big.

Counting only areas that are integral parts of the French state, TTL's France includes the following:

Metropolitan France, 674,843 sq. km.;
Algerian littoral, about 400,000 sq. km. (eyeballing it on a map);
Senegal, about 200,000 sq. km. (OTL Senegal plus the Gambia but minus Casamance);
Gabon, 267,667 sq. km.;
Guadeloupe, 1628 sq. km.;
Martinque, 1128 sq. km.;
St. Pierre and Miquelon, 242 sq. km.

This adds up to about 1.55 million sq. km., give or take - comparable to Mongolia and Iran in OTL, and about three times the size of the German Empire. It would definitely be the largest state in Europe, at least until (and unless) other European powers start making their colonies into integral provinces.
 

Sulemain

Banned
As a constitutional monarchist with a taste for multi-cultural, multi-ethnic parliamentary monarchies, I must say I am loving this TL.

I will ask though: what would you say the most liberal state in terms of social liberalism/political liberalism is ITL? I'm thinking France, but I might be mistaken.

Are you a monarchist, JE?
 
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What were the general effects of the war on the Jewish populace in Europe? Salonika escaped unscathed, so it would be a prime choice for emigrants fleeing the ethnic turmoils and looking for a spot where being a Jew doesn't turn into a hassle.
 
Counting only areas that are integral parts of the French state, TTL's France includes the following:

Metropolitan France, 674,843 sq. km.;
Algerian littoral, about 400,000 sq. km. (eyeballing it on a map);
Senegal, about 200,000 sq. km. (OTL Senegal plus the Gambia but minus Casamance);
Gabon, 267,667 sq. km.;
Guadeloupe, 1628 sq. km.;
Martinque, 1128 sq. km.;
St. Pierre and Miquelon, 242 sq. km.

This adds up to about 1.55 million sq. km., give or take - comparable to Mongolia and Iran in OTL, and about three times the size of the German Empire. It would definitely be the largest state in Europe, at least until (and unless) other European powers start making their colonies into integral provinces.

So could you make an updated map at some point? If *metropolitan* France really is that huge, 400k+ sq. mi., then it must have swallowed up quite a bit from some of the surrounding countries.....French-speaking Barcelona and Mainz, maybe? :cool:
 
It sounds as if the establishment in the Ottoman Empire is on its way out. I'm sure that as the Empire becomes more urbanized it will be harder for the traditional way of ensuring electoral victory for the establishment. It does sound like it is truly transitioning toward a state like that envisioned by the Ottomanists, which is always a pleasing development.
 
So could you make an updated map at some point? If *metropolitan* France really is that huge, 400k+ sq. mi., then it must have swallowed up quite a bit from some of the surrounding countries.....French-speaking Barcelona and Mainz, maybe? :cool:

There's a 1900 map here. Note that Jonathan's figure for "metropolitan France" looks to include French Guiana, since I didn't see it listed separately. Given that Spain was a French-leaning neutral in the recent war, Barcelona seems unlikely, and given that France did not win said war, Mainz also would not seem to be in the cards.
 
As a constitutional monarchist with a taste for multi-cultural, multi-ethnic liberal states, I must say I am loving this TL.

I will ask though: what would you say the most liberal state in terms of social liberalism/political liberalism is ITL? I'm thinking France, but I might be mistaken.

As a small-R republican who tends to agree with Paulo Abacar about the world having too many kings, I'm a bit surprised at the way TTL has turned out. :p I guess it makes sense, though, that new states created after a Great War in the 1890s would be more likely to become monarchies than new states created in the 1910s, especially if all the powers on the winning side are constitutional monarchies and the French Third Republic never formed.

By most measures, France is the most socially liberal country at this point and will continue to be so. It's probably also the most politically liberal, but that might not last; the revolving-door governments of 1880-92, the semi-dictatorship under Leclair and the civil war have all eroded respect for constitutionalism and the rule of law, with effects that will be felt from the late 1900s to the mid-20s. As I said above, France isn't going to become a dictatorship or single-party state, but the ruling parties will have their thumb on the scale in some uncomfortable ways.

What were the general effects of the war on the Jewish populace in Europe? Salonika escaped unscathed, so it would be a prime choice for emigrants fleeing the ethnic turmoils and looking for a spot where being a Jew doesn't turn into a hassle.

It wasn't good to be a Jew in Russia during the war or in Hungary afterward, but other than that, Jews didn't do too badly. Those still in Russia are OK now - some sporadic anti-Semitic violence accompanied the revolution, but the new government stepped down on it pretty quickly. Jews from Hungary are indeed fleeing to Salonika as well as Austria (for the Habsburg loyalists) the Ottoman Empire, the United States, Britain, France, Germany and Holland, with a few going as far as Australasia or even more remote places.

It sounds as if the establishment in the Ottoman Empire is on its way out. I'm sure that as the Empire becomes more urbanized it will be harder for the traditional way of ensuring electoral victory for the establishment. It does sound like it is truly transitioning toward a state like that envisioned by the Ottomanists, which is always a pleasing development.

The establishment is on its way out kicking and screaming - the question is how much more they'll kick before they accept facts. The constitutional reforms of the 1870s were very effective in bringing order to Ottoman politics and government finance, and the old generation of liberals can still come up with grand ideas such as the international court of arbitration, but industrial and urban development has passed them by, and they don't really have any prescriptions for the postwar world. Of course, they don't realize this yet, and by now they're as anxious to protect their privileges as any reactionary, so the transition won't be a smooth one.

There are several competing visions of the Ottoman state at this point, and one of them is very close to what the Ottomanists intended. The emerging leaders of the twentieth century will include a new generation of Young Ottomans, one of whom will have the last name of Bronshtein.

If *metropolitan* France really is that huge, 400k+ sq. mi., then it must have swallowed up quite a bit from some of the surrounding countries.....French-speaking Barcelona and Mainz, maybe? :cool:

Note that Jonathan's figure for "metropolitan France" looks to include French Guiana, since I didn't see it listed separately. Given that Spain was a French-leaning neutral in the recent war, Barcelona seems unlikely, and given that France did not win said war, Mainz also would not seem to be in the cards.

The figure was my mistake - I looked up the OTL land area of France and didn't realize that it included the overseas departments. According to the cadastral survey as cited in Wikipedia, the land area of European France should be 543,965 sq. km. (210,026 sq. mi.), and the total land area of TTL's integral French provinces should be about 1.4 million sq. km. or 540,000 sq. mi. Bigger than Peru, smaller than Mongolia.

French Guiana isn't an integral province yet, either in OTL or TTL.
 
Okay. After weeks of lurking along this timeline, I finally decided to make an account here because dammit! I wanna add my own thoughts to this piece of marvelous work!

I don’t consider myself an alternate history fan, but a few weeks back I stumbled upon this timeline while I was mindlessly surfing the web and I have to say, your world is one of the best works of historical fiction I’ve ever read, ever. I am astounded with the amount of detail here and the discussions among other forum members in this thread are both eye-opening and surprising educational.

Okay, I’m done with my praise. Now to the questions.

1) What will become of Sarawak in this timeline? In the real world, the Brooke’s rule the forest nation until they were ousted by the Japanese in 1941. At the same time, Charles Vyner Brooke had wanted to end absolute rule by granting major powers to the local parliament. In this timeline, with the Japanese seeming to be pacified (for now), what will happen to the Brooke’s Kingdom of Sarawak? Will Charles’s Brooke’s son be butterflied away, or will something else happen to the family over the 1900’s?

2) What shall happen with the Kingdom of Johor in this timeline? I wish I had found out about this story earlier, because the possibilities of playing Sultan Abu Bakar in the context of the Great War would be amazing! Personal friend of Queen Victoria, conferrer of the Royal Prussian Order of the Crown, visits to the Ottoman Empire and China, bestowed a title by the king of Hawaii, not to mention his trying to modernize the kingdom until he’s called the “Father Of Modernization” in Johor… I know that he couldn't be butterflied as he is born before the timeline has changed, but could there be a chance that his disease be butterflied away? Gah! The possibilities…

That’s it, I suppose. Keep on rocking, Jonathan!

P.S: Will we get more of Anastasia’s POV (or her father’s, for that) of her coming to Eritrea? I’m becoming quite curious as to the Russian family’s reaction to their new home.
 
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Alexander Karatheodori Pasha was an Ottoman statesman in OTL, and was Prince of Samos; in TTL he's risen farther due to his successful diplomacy after the 1877-78 war, his help in keeping Greece neutral in 1893, and his association with the Constitutionalist party.

The Crimea is an autonomous region in Russia, with some Ottoman concessions. It's no longer a khanate, as an independent Crimean state proved indefensible during the war. The Khanates of Shirvan and the Caucasus still exist, though, so there will be Khans in TTL's twentieth century. [Unquote]

Thanks for the full reply, both for Karatheodori and the news about the Khanates.

Looking forward to all of it; noticeably Lev Pasha!
 
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