Malê Rising

Wilhelm will also have an interesting time incorporating the Republic of Baden into his postwar empire.
Well, I don't know how important Republicanism has become for the Badeners during the war. IOTL, Baden was one of the most liberal states in Germany, with the Grand Dukes quite accomodating to demands for participation and with a relatively liberal constitution, so it would be ironic if they would be the ones replaced by a Republic instead of their more pig-headed colleagues in other states. I understand that the Republic is proclaimed because the Grand Duke stays loyal to the FAR, whether out of conviction or fear. But that could be remedied by him stepping aside for a less compromised heir after the war. I don't get the feeling that the monarchy has compromised itself so much as to make a post-war setllement impossible, in which Baden would stay a Grand Duchy (making the Prussians more at ease), but with the Grand Duke being a mere figurehead.
OTOH, technically the NGF already contains three (or four) republics - the three Hanse cities and perhaps Frankfurt (I don't remember what happened to it ITTL, IOTL it was annexed by Prussia after the Prussian-Austrian war). Of course, they weren't revolutionary Republics but the last remaining of the HRE's city states, so they weren't seen as a threat, and their government was quite oligarchic anyway. There's a nice scene in Thomas Mann's Buddenbrooks, which is set in the Hanse city of Lübeck, where during the 1848 revolution Consul Buddenbrook has a discussion with a revolutionary worker along these lines: "What is it that you want?" - "We want a republic!" - "But we already are a republic." - "In that case, we want a different republic!"
@ Admiral Matt: After WWI, the sentiment for joining Germany was very strong in Austria, and only the veto of the allies prevented it. But there, Germany and Austria had fought (and lost) together, and Germany had entered the war to support Austria. ITTL, things will be made more complicated by the Germans having been the enemy and, by inciting ethnic minorities, corroding the Habsburg empire. If the Habsburg Empire crumbles as a result (which I still see as a likely outcome), the Austrian Germans may still see their future best served as part of a German Empire, but I assume there will be less enthusiasm then IOTL.
 
Jonathan... where's Prussian-Russian frontline supposed to be? Because it's rather confusing. Unless Prussia holds Eastern Prussia, there's no way for them to move towards Warsaw at all... and when Russians are in Posen and Silesia I doubt that Prussians were able to keep East Prussia. And even if they did, there'd be a SINGLE railway line joining Prussia and central Poland - the Danzig-Marienburg-Illau-Mlawa-Modlin-Warsaw line; which would be difficult with the Modlin fortress sitting on it.
It'd make more sense going along Thorn-Wloclawek-Kutno, but in that case Prussians would outflank Russian positions in Posen, but it doesn't appear to happen.

Another thing - were did the conflict between Polish nobles and other Poles in Congress Poland came from? You do realise that OTL there were Polish nobles who joined Socialists, like Josef Pilsudzki? So, what gives?
 
Jonathan, by the way, you got the scene where the Badener soldiers storm the railway station totally wrong. As you probably know, according to Lenin, no German revolutionary would occupy a railway station without buying a platform ticket first, but I didn't see you mention any platform tickets! ;)
 
Thats definately true of serious scholarly history, what I'm saying though is that it will go down as the turning point in popular history and in high school history classes (probably most peoples most in depth exposure to any history).

Fair enough - the Baden coup, along with another side-change that will happen in a couple of months, is a dramatic event, and as such will capture the public imagination as a turning point. It will certainly be emphasized in the postwar German schools - the revolution of the patriotic people of Baden will be part of the mythology that surrounds German unification.

The Prussians would have to have made quite a gamble... So it'd take a lot of luck, but with the right amount of Russian incompetence/disorganization (not such a stretch) it's possible.

I do think they'll be overrun, but it doesn't matter. Russia's logistics are shot. Even if the Germans facing them don't attack, the Russians depending on those trains can't. A flank is covered, just as the center of FAR lines collapse.

This was something that Wilhelm planned with the Polish partisans - as we've seen at several points during the war, the young Wilhelm is often more audacious than his generals. One thing this will instill in him, BTW, is the belief that the Poles (who were all for the strike) are braver than the Junkers who demurred.

Once again, I am getting a little mixed up with Carlton's TL here - the Prussians as Polish allies, the conflict between Polish radicals and Polish aristocrats... :)

Well, conditions create events, no? :p It seems reasonable that in an existential war between Germany and Russia, one side or another would make use of the Poles.

Also, the talk of German national unification is making me wonder, how is pan germanism doing in Austria itself? They're fighting them on the one hand, but on the other hand Austrian liberals and socialists may like them for fighting the ultramontaines.

After WWI, the sentiment for joining Germany was very strong in Austria, and only the veto of the allies prevented it. But there, Germany and Austria had fought (and lost) together, and Germany had entered the war to support Austria. ITTL, things will be made more complicated by the Germans having been the enemy and, by inciting ethnic minorities, corroding the Habsburg empire. If the Habsburg Empire crumbles as a result (which I still see as a likely outcome), the Austrian Germans may still see their future best served as part of a German Empire, but I assume there will be less enthusiasm then IOTL.

I think Wannis is right. On the one hand, there will be a good deal of pan-German sentiment, the incorporation of the Sudetenland into the NDB earlier in the war will be a precedent, and the Austrian Germans might feel that their chances are better as part of the German Empire than as a landlocked rump state. On the other hand, Austria will be deeply humiliated, and there will be hundreds of thousands of German-Austrians dead by North German bullets. The Austrian question will end up being one of the major issues in the peace settlement, and will require conciliation which may or may not be forthcoming.

Well, I don't know how important Republicanism has become for the Badeners during the war. IOTL, Baden was one of the most liberal states in Germany, with the Grand Dukes quite accomodating to demands for participation and with a relatively liberal constitution, so it would be ironic if they would be the ones replaced by a Republic instead of their more pig-headed colleagues in other states. I understand that the Republic is proclaimed because the Grand Duke stays loyal to the FAR, whether out of conviction or fear. But that could be remedied by him stepping aside for a less compromised heir after the war.

That may happen. The junior officers who staged the coup are fairly radical (as junior officers often are), but they've also brought the notables of the city and the distinguished pan-Germanists into their government, and the people aren't entirely sold on the idea of a republic. There could well be a postwar restoration in which, as you say, the new Grand Duke will play a figurehead role, but the radicals will demand a price, which will be part of the larger price that Wilhelm will have to pay to get the postwar Reichstag to declare him emperor.

Failing that, as you also say, republics as constituent parts of monarchies aren't unheard of - several of the Malaysian states are examples as well as the Hanseatic cities - so Prussia could probably swallow a new one if it has to. Baden might actually be an easier problem to solve than Württemberg and Bavaria, where the NDB will have to set the precedent of deposing the kings.

Jonathan... where's Prussian-Russian frontline supposed to be? Because it's rather confusing. Unless Prussia holds Eastern Prussia, there's no way for them to move towards Warsaw at all... and when Russians are in Posen and Silesia I doubt that Prussians were able to keep East Prussia. And even if they did, there'd be a SINGLE railway line joining Prussia and central Poland - the Danzig-Marienburg-Illau-Mlawa-Modlin-Warsaw line; which would be difficult with the Modlin fortress sitting on it.
It'd make more sense going along Thorn-Wloclawek-Kutno, but in that case Prussians would outflank Russian positions in Posen, but it doesn't appear to happen.

Really, just one rail line to the border? I guess that makes some sense - in an empire where all roads led to St. Petersburg, the railroads would go there too.

Let's try to make this work. I've mentioned that some of the coastal cities in East and West Prussia, including Königsberg and Danzig, were bypassed by the Russians in their drive west - they were put under siege, but the North Germans were able to supply them by sea. So maybe the North Germans pushed a salient south from Danzig at the same time they advanced in Silesia and Posen, took the Modlin fortress, and then seized the rail line long enough to get troops to the central Polish cities.

Or maybe the Russians built the rail lines out to the Silesian front during the war so that they could move troops there faster, and that wartime construction is now being used against them. That might actually be the simpler solution.

Another thing - were did the conflict between Polish nobles and other Poles in Congress Poland came from? You do realise that OTL there were Polish nobles who joined Socialists, like Josef Pilsudzki? So, what gives?

Fair point - there are nobles who are socialists, as well as many workers (and most peasants) who are not! Part of the intellectual support for the revolution comes from the nobility, albeit not as much as in 1846 or 1863 (this uprising is more analogous to 1905 in OTL). But Klimecki was thinking in general terms - his image of the "noble" is that of the conservative Galician magnate, not Pilsudski. His view of nobles is as much caricatured as his view of capitalists - i.e., with some truth to it but without much nuance. Of course, the people on the reviewing stand might have similar views of him.

20,000 [leagues ahead of Leclair] in fact?

Well, yes. In fact, some Frenchmen will be over the moon about him becoming prime minister, although others will feel as if they've been dragged down to the center of the earth.

I wonder what would happen of Verne became Premier....it would be interesting, to say the least.

In TTL, his works became popular somewhat later (with Africa not as exotic in TTL, Five Weeks in a Balloon was a very different book, and it was the novels of the later 1860s that made his name) so he went somewhat further in the legal profession, becoming a two-time deputy to the Corps législatif as well as mayor of Amiens. He's an elder statesman not associated with any party, he is popular with the people due to his novels, and (as in OTL) he's a pacifist and thus has the bona fides to lead a peace-seeking government. He'll also be quite the futurist during his two premierships (one before the time of troubles and one after).

BTW, I'd originally planned for Leclair's replacement to be Zola, but Verne was just too perfect.

Jonathan, by the way, you got the scene where the Badener soldiers storm the railway station totally wrong. As you probably know, according to Lenin, no German revolutionary would occupy a railway station without buying a platform ticket first, but I didn't see you mention any platform tickets! ;)

Well, they were pretending to be soldiers going to the front, so of course they didn't need tickets. They did show the checkpoint officer their passenger manifest, though. :p
 
This was something that Wilhelm planned with the Polish partisans - as we've seen at several points during the war, the young Wilhelm is often more audacious than his generals. One thing this will instill in him, BTW, is the belief that the Poles (who were all for the strike) are braver than the Junkers who demurred.
Little known fact, but the Hohenzollern Princes IOTL learnt Polish in order to be able to talk to their Polish subjects. I don't know how well, but ITTL it could mean that Wilhelm would be able to talk to Polish nationalists in their own language, which might earn him some points.

Baden might actually be an easier problem to solve than Württemberg and Bavaria, where the NDB will have to set the precedent of deposing the kings.
Well, ITTL Prussia probably can't go for the option of annexing the defeated states, especially regarding the Pro-German uprising in Bavaria. Failing that, the protocol between monarchs used to be the loser submitting to the winner and keeping his throne. The kings of Bavaria and Württemberg may both feel that their defeat is too shameful and resign, opening the way for an uncompromised heir, but what necessitates a deposing? The only ones I could imagine baying for the head of the king may be the Pro-German party in the Bavarian civil war, if too many atrocities have been committed by the royal side, and their demands certainly will have weight. But Württemberg seems more quiet?
 
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Well, ITTL Prussia probably can't go for the option of annexing the defeated states, especially regarding the Pro-German uprising in Bavaria.

The other states of the Confederation wouldn't stand for it, nor would the people of southern Germany, who didn't fight their own rulers in order to become Prussian. For that matter, the Prussian government itself would probably not want to absorb so many restive Catholics.

Failing that, the protocol between monarchs used to be the loser submitting to the winner and keeping his throne. The kings of Bavaria and Württemberg may both feel that their defeat is too shameful and resign, opening the way for an uncompromised heir, but what necessitates a deposing? The only ones I could imagine baying for the head of the king may be the Pro-German party in the Bavarian civil war, if too many atrocities have been committed by the royal side, and their demands certainly will have weight. But Württemberg seems more quiet?

True, the king of Württemberg hasn't really blotted his copybook other than siding with the FARs, so if the protocol is to allow defeated monarchs to submit, then he'd be able to do so. (The Grand Duke of Baden also hasn't done anything particularly bad - as you said, Baden is one of the more liberal German states - but the putschists had to remove him in order to make a clean break with the FAR alliance.)

The king of Bavaria will have to go, though - there were atrocities during the civil war, and at least half his subjects hate him like poison. Maybe the powers will orchestrate an abdication in favor of an acceptable family member - or maybe the Bavarian army in exile will take matters into their own hands when München falls.
 
The other states of the Confederation wouldn't stand for it, nor would the people of southern Germany, who didn't fight their own rulers in order to become Prussian. For that matter, the Prussian government itself would probably not want to absorb so many restive Catholics.



True, the king of Württemberg hasn't really blotted his copybook other than siding with the FARs, so if the protocol is to allow defeated monarchs to submit, then he'd be able to do so. (The Grand Duke of Baden also hasn't done anything particularly bad - as you said, Baden is one of the more liberal German states - but the putschists had to remove him in order to make a clean break with the FAR alliance.)

The king of Bavaria will have to go, though - there were atrocities during the civil war, and at least half his subjects hate him like poison. Maybe the powers will orchestrate an abdication in favor of an acceptable family member - or maybe the Bavarian army in exile will take matters into their own hands when München falls.

By the way, I think there are some not unnoticeable bits of of Northern Bavaria (which is actually Francony) that Prussia can claim with some sort of historical basis. I am thinking mostly of Ansbach and Bayreuth, who were ruled by an offshot of the Hohenzollern House and ultimately inherited by the Prussian branch before Napoleon. I am not very sure about the process that made them part of Bavaria at Vienna, but I get the impression it was pretty convoluted.
So, Prussia annexing a substantial part of Bavarian Francony does not seem so far off. However, the rest of Bavaria (including Bavaria proper, Swabia, Hochpfalz, any other part of Francony, Nuremberg, and a lot of other minor places) is another set of uneasy problems altogether.

EDIT: offering Tyrol and/or Salzburg to Bavaria (Voralberg is pretty likely to become a Swiss canton or something similar here) is a quite obvious way to appease them if they are stripped of Franconian areas. It was the way Napoleon went, however, and it backfired quite clearly then, so people my be not so inclined to repeat the arrangement.
 
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Really, just one rail line to the border? I guess that makes some sense - in an empire where all roads led to St. Petersburg, the railroads would go there too.

Let's try to make this work. I've mentioned that some of the coastal cities in East and West Prussia, including Königsberg and Danzig, were bypassed by the Russians in their drive west - they were put under siege, but the North Germans were able to supply them by sea. So maybe the North Germans pushed a salient south from Danzig at the same time they advanced in Silesia and Posen, took the Modlin fortress, and then seized the rail line long enough to get troops to the central Polish cities.

Or maybe the Russians built the rail lines out to the Silesian front during the war so that they could move troops there faster, and that wartime construction is now being used against them. That might actually be the simpler solution.

Eh.... I don't know.

Initially I read the update as a raid in force; storm trooper equivalents sneaking as much as fighting through the lines and once in the open simply moving faster than the Russians could react to them. Risky in the extreme, but within the capabilities of contemporary warfare on the Eastern Front. But now it sounds like you're talking about a surprise attack that drove a salient at least the 350 kilometers from Danzig to Warsaw, all in a single offensive that would have had to be supplied by sea.

If that is your meaning, then I'd argue that it's doesn't fit within the capabilities of c1900 warfare at all. The only time armies moved like that in Europe was during the German drive to Brest-Litovsk, and that was only possible because the Russian army effectively didn't exist - having deserted to take part in land reform. Even Germany at the very end, or Serbia being back-stabbed by Bulgaria didn't reach the level of speed and success of this dramatic offensive. This is too big to make the Russian position collapse - it's the kind of thing that would depend on the Russian position having already collapsed.
 
So, Prussia annexing a substantial part of Bavarian Francony does not seem so far off. However, the rest of Bavaria (including Bavaria proper, Swabia, Hochpfalz, any other part of Francony, Nuremberg, and a lot of other minor places) is another set of uneasy problems altogether.

Hmmm, I'm not sure the other German states would want Prussia to get any bigger than it is, and there's going to be enough trouble assimilating the south without messing with the internal borders. Some Prussians might want to expand, but I think they'll be reminded that it's Germany rather than Prussia that is unifying.

EDIT: offering Tyrol and/or Salzburg to Bavaria (Voralberg is pretty likely to become a Swiss canton or something similar here) is a quite obvious way to appease them if they are stripped of Franconian areas.

Apparently, in OTL, Voralberg wanted to become a Swiss canton in 1919 (80 percent positive vote at a referendum) but Switzerland didn't want it. I'm not sure what the Swiss attitude toward expansion will be in TTL - on the one hand, they'll want something for their trouble after being dragged into the war, but on the other hand, admitting another canton will affect the ethnic, religious and possibly political balance. The path of least resistance might be to keep all of German Austria together, either as a rump state or as a constituent of the German empire.

Initially I read the update as a raid in force; storm trooper equivalents sneaking as much as fighting through the lines and once in the open simply moving faster than the Russians could react to them. Risky in the extreme, but within the capabilities of contemporary warfare on the Eastern Front.

That's what I had in mind as well - break through with a few brigades, fight to the railheads, and then jump on the rail lines that the Polish partisans have cleared and race for the cities. I was trying to square that with what Tizoc said about there being only one rail line from Warsaw to the prewar German border.

I'll tell you what I think happened: there was only one rail line to the border before the war, but once the Russians invaded Posen and Silesia, they used some of their conscript labor to build a few more lines to supply the front. The Russians have now been pushed back far enough that the railheads are just behind the front, enabling the Germans to break through and race for Warsaw as originally planned. That way they don't need any salients from Danzig. Does that work for everyone?
 
Apparently, in OTL, Voralberg wanted to become a Swiss canton in 1919 (80 percent positive vote at a referendum) but Switzerland didn't want it. I'm not sure what the Swiss attitude toward expansion will be in TTL - on the one hand, they'll want something for their trouble after being dragged into the war, but on the other hand, admitting another canton will affect the ethnic, religious and possibly political balance. The path of least resistance might be to keep all of German Austria together, either as a rump state or as a constituent of the German empire.

Whoa.

That's what I had in mind as well - break through with a few brigades, fight to the railheads, and then jump on the rail lines that the Polish partisans have cleared and race for the cities. I was trying to square that with what Tizoc said about there being only one rail line from Warsaw to the prewar German border.

I'll tell you what I think happened: there was only one rail line to the border before the war, but once the Russians invaded Posen and Silesia, they used some of their conscript labor to build a few more lines to supply the front. The Russians have now been pushed back far enough that the railheads are just behind the front, enabling the Germans to break through and race for Warsaw as originally planned. That way they don't need any salients from Danzig. Does that work for everyone?

Hrm. I think that makes more sense, yes.

The one thing I'd poke at though is that the best site to make such an offensive would be away from the areas the Russians have lately been pushed back. Those areas will have by far the densest Russian defenses, while on the rest of the front the Germans could take some advantage of the relative openness.

That said, if there was a major Polish uprising at a railhead just behind the lines, or the Poles had taken a major rail hub themselves and then could pinch the Russian lines between them and the Germans.... Well, it's not impossible anyway. I'm not sure I have the background to say more with much certainty.


Incidentally, when was TTL's Franco-Prussian War, again? And do you think losing would have prevented Bismark from dropping silver currency after the war? I've just discovered, bizarrely enough, that it might make a big difference to the Chinese American community. And do so in a way that's sort of up your alley.
 
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That probably isn't on the cards; Tonga isn't really settler-colony material, which is one of the reasons why, unlike every other Pacific Island monarchy I can think of, it avoided colonization in OTL. It may be vassalized by one power or another, but it won't become a New Caledonia.

As Shevek23 points out, there will be disagreements within the United States about what to do, and the other powers may constrain them as well. There will be many people with something to say about what happens to Tonga, including, ultimately, the Tongans.



No doubt. They've already promised Japan that it can keep what it conquers, so in the event of a BOG victory, the outlying Russian islands (and maybe even Petropavlovsk) will become Japanese. None of the great powers have any particular interest in these islands, so I doubt that Japan would get done out of them at the peace table. But if Korea successfully resists, the great powers aren't going to risk another war to give it to Japan anyway; the Japanese might get some capitulations and protection for their commercial interests, but Korea would remain independent.

A defeat in Korea certainly wouldn't enhance the Japanese militarists' reputation - the success of the naval war might prevent imperialism from being completely discredited, but Japan might enter the twentieth century somewhat more chastened than OTL, and it will be looking for other ways to increase its influence.

Finally, I'd again be obliged if someone were to post one more comment so that the next update (most likely this weekend) won't be on the bottom of the page.

Came a little late to this (as was on holiday), but if you want to read a bit more about Tonga, the blogged linked below may be of some use. The author is a NZ poet/academic resident there at present and he often talks about Tonga's society and the like. The author has a pretty obvious ideological view, but I'll leave that to you to sift through

http://readingthemaps.blogspot.co.uk/
 
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Speech of Samuel Clemens, National Peace Party Presidential Candidate, Cincinnati, September 19, 1896

… I’ll give one thing to the war party, they’re always ready with a new story. Last year it was the Amazon, until we learned what they were really after down there. Then it was Hawaii, until that blew up in their face. Now it’s Tonga.

Tonga, gents. How many of you had heard of it before our would-be myrmidons started chattering about it? I’ll confess I hadn’t. If you can find Tonga on a map, please give me your map, because you’ve got a better one than I do.

Granted, we can’t discount what happened there. A hundred American sailors killed – that’s not something we can just sweep under the rug. But going to war? That reminds me of a gent I met once in Texas. He was in the saloon one day, and a mosquito landed on his hand and stung him. He didn’t like that one bit. So he took his revolver and shot the skeeter six times, and as they were taking him to the hospital, he said “I sure showed that sumbitch.”

Make no mistake, that’s what it would be. Because the war party isn’t talking about fighting Tonga, or at least not just that. They’re talking about fighting Britain over Tonga, or maybe France, or maybe both. I guess fighting both of them makes sense, because they both have exactly the same amount to do with the massacre of our sailors – that is, nothing. But if we do that, then we’d be sending hundreds of thousands of our boys to early graves and millions more to be maimed. That’s what I’d call shooting ourselves in the hand to swat a fly. Hell, we’d be lucky if we don’t shoot ourselves in the head.

Bad idea, right? And it’s an even worse idea given that we’re actually doing something about Tonga. I’m running against Bill Chandler, but he handled this one right. He went to the people we’ve been talking to about the Pacific for the last six months – the same ones the war party wants us to fight – and they all went to the king of Tonga together. Our sailors’ families got compensation. The people who murdered them will be tried and punished. There’s a commission in place to make sure nothing like that happens again.

Our rocking-chair warriors call that weak-kneed. I call it smart. Instead of sending thousands of young men to die for nothing, we worked with our neighbors and got justice without firing a shot. Just think – if the Europeans had tried that in ’93, millions of their sons might be alive today…

… I’ve heard it from the other direction too. Some folks have said to me, “The war’s almost over, what do we need a Peace Party for?” Well, I’ve got two answers to that. The first one is that this is exactly when it’s most tempting to jump in. Now’s the time to join the winning team and grab some of the spoils, or join the losing side and see if we can turn things around. There are even those saying that this is our last chance to pick something up for ourselves while everyone else is distracted.

And the second reason is – well, this won’t be the last war men ever fight. I’m a Christian, and I believe in the perfectibility of mankind, but I also believe in original sin, and as long as we’re a fallen race, we’re going to find things to fight over. That’s why we still need a Peace Party – not just to keep us out of this war, but to make sure we don’t join the next one, and to support things like that Turkish plan for a world court which might keep wars from happening. That’s why I’m looking forward to your vote six weeks from now, and that’s why I hope you cast that vote for peace…

*******​

Oyster Bay, October 15, 1896

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The water of Cold Spring Harbor was chilly this time of year, but that was welcome after a five-mile run. Theodore Roosevelt shook off his shoes and tunic and plunged into the surf, angling under the waves like a porpoise before coming up for air.

“Come on in, Jimmy!” he shouted. “What are you, afraid of a little cold?” His long-suffering secretary tiptoed to the edge of the water, knowing that a refusal would only get him splashed for his trouble.

“Any more letters today, sir?”

Roosevelt ducked his head underwater again and held it there for a long moment, thinking. Just as Jimmy was about to plunge in to rescue him, clothes and all, he surfaced, shaking droplets of water from his hair.

“Yes there are. Do we have a final copy of the Tonga essay? Good, I need it sent off today – the usual list of papers. We need to tell Barker that yes, he should push for a Progressive senator if the party holds the balance of power in the state legislature. And we need to answer James Weaver’s letter: ‘The National Peace Party will work with any party before or after the election, so long as they commit to keeping our nation out of the war at any cost.’”

“Very well, sir.” The secretary made notes on the pad that he’d carried with him throughout the morning run.

It’s nice that Weaver’s courting us, Roosevelt thought, once again finding solitude under the harbor’s surface, but I only hope we’re in a position to make bargains. It was hard to predict how a five-way election would go, or if anyone would win it outright. A few months ago, he’d thought that Chandler might, but the Populists had bridged the gap between the agrarian South and Midwest and the unions of New York and Chicago, and they were eating into both the Republican and Democratic vote. The Progressives didn’t seem to be doing as well, but they were also strong in some traditionally Republican states, and between Pattison and Weaver, neither major candidate might win an electoral majority. And if that happened, and if the Peace Party could cobble together a few electoral votes and Congressmen, they’d be part of the horse-trading…

He swam out into the harbor, leaving Jimmy behind, wondering how that would work. Coalition politics wasn’t what the United States was used to, and he wasn’t sure whether the American party leaders even knew how to do that kind of bargaining. He suspected that he and Clemens, for all they were political neophytes, might be better at it than most; they’d at least traveled to countries where such things were done.

He’d gone a few hundred feet from shore when he began to feel the chill, and he remembered that there was an undertow somewhere. No need to make Jimmy any more anxious than necessary, he thought, and turned around. A minute or two later he was stamping onto the shore, accepting the towel that his secretary threw over his shoulders and making his way up to the house.

“After you get those letters out, you can take the morning off,” he said. “If I need anything else, I’ll let you know.”

“Very well, sir. Will you be having breakfast with Mr. Bennett?”

Roosevelt picked up his pace at the mention of the actor who’d been his beau-of-the-moment for the past five years. “Of course.”

“I’ll let the kitchen know, then.”

*******​

Charleston, November 3, 1896

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Harriet Tubman sat on a couch in the union hall and watched the people swirl around her. It was getting late, and she really ought to close her eyes, but the people on their endless errands and the snatches of conversations made it feel like she was dreaming already.

She’d been around elections since the last war, so none of what was happening was new to her, but it was amazing how much things could change while still being the same. She remembered the provisional election in ’63, taking votes by battalion and by farmstead and carrying the ballots through Confederate lines. She remembered the times when it had taken days to learn who’d won a state election, and sometimes weeks to learn who’d won a national one. But now there was the telegraph and the telephone, and she’d know by morning who the president was and who California had voted into Congress.

It seemed now like all those years, and even all the years before, were coming together: her childhood as a slave, the Underground Railroad, the uprising, the long years rebuilding South Carolina into something that freedmen everywhere could look on with pride. She’d had strong dreams since that time when her master had hit her on the head, dreams of leading her people to glory, and at this moment she felt that she was in the middle of one of them. But it was everyone else’s dream she was living now, the voters’ dream, and only they would say whether they’d chosen her as their prophet.

“We’ve got some more numbers, Miss Harriet.” It was some young man a third her age with a sheaf of papers in his hand. Didn’t he know she didn’t care right now? Didn’t he know she had other things on her mind, and that she could wait until morning?

“You’re running just behind Talmadge,” he went on, oblivious. “But the city isn’t in yet, and neither are the islands.”

She nodded as if she understood, and then a moment later, she did. The low-country vote went to whoever won the Circles, and a few more of them had gone for Talmadge than for her – loyalty to the Republican Party died very hard in the lowlands, even when Moses was the other candidate. But the Sea Island Gullah and the city voters were more independent, and of course the whites didn’t care about the Circles one way or the other. Wouldn’t it be funny if they were the ones who put me over?

As she finished the thought, she realized that she’d shaken out of her reverie, and that she was suddenly interested in the papers the young man was carrying. She leaned forward and took them with one hand, moving them to where they both could see.

Chandler’s won New England – well, of course he would. Weaver’s got North Carolina, and the Democrats and Progressives are fighting hard in New York. Rebecca Felton going to the House from Georgia… my, my. It looked like Harriet’s friend and nemesis had won a close four-way race for the Progressives – imagine that, the first woman in Congress coming from a state where women couldn’t even vote.

Well, let’s see if I’m the second, because if I am, there’ll be some debates on the House floor that everyone will remember.

“Some city returns coming in,” said another party worker, a woman – Harriet strained her memory, and recalled that her name was Lydia. She was in her early twenties, a doctor’s daughter, from the freedman upper class that had grown up in Charleston since the war. Pretty, too, not that it matters. I wonder what she’d think if she knew how much she reminded me of all the plantation misses back when I was a child.

“Come on, child, don’t keep it to yourself.”

“You’re beating Talmadge two to one south of Broad, and three to one over by the docks.” There were a lot of immigrants in the port district, and many people who made their living in the Haiti and Sierra Leone trades, and peace was good for business. “That puts you sixty votes ahead districtwide.”

“A landslide, if I don’t mistake it.”

“It’ll get better. The low country’s nearly all in, and Talmadge doesn’t have too many strongholds in the city.”

And damned if it didn’t happen just that way – Harriet lost a few city precincts in the next two hours, but she won a lot more, and the Sea Islands gave her a narrow majority. At two in the morning, she was ahead by eleven hundred votes out of forty thousand, and Talmadge was on the phone congratulating her on her victory.

It was like a dream again, for a woman who’d been many things in her seventy-six years. But will it be a flight to glory? I’ll have to take it day by day.

*******​

Results of the American General Election of 1896

President (443 electoral votes; 222 for majority)

Chandler (Republican): 183 EV - 5,156,879 popular votes
Blackburn (Democrat): 167 EV - 4,387,515 popular votes
Weaver (People’s): 54 EV - 3,105,160 popular votes
Pattison (Progressive): 32 EV - 1,622,370 popular votes
Clemens (Peace): 7 EV - 1,009,128 popular votes
_______​

House (357 seats; 189 for majority)

Republican 139
Democratic 126
People’s 55
Progressive 30
Peace 7

(State delegations: Republican 17; Democratic 14; People’s 3; Progressive 2; no majority 7)
_______​

Senate (86 seats; 43/44 for majority)

Republican 34
Democratic 32
People’s 8
Progressive 10
Peace 2
 
Y'know, I don't know why I never paid closer attention to this TL before. After having gone back and read through the end of the Civil War, I now know the error of my ways. Subscribed!
 
Thanks, Dragos and Fleet Mac!

What state (or states, I suppose) did the Peace Party win? I'd be very interested to see an electoral map of this election, it seems very chaotic.

The Peace Party won Connecticut, where Clemens lives and Roosevelt is very influential, and which has a seventh electoral vote in TTL.

Beyond that, I'm not even going to try to draw an electoral map. Figure that the Populist states are in the Midwest, Mountain West and Upper South (I mentioned that Weaver won North Carolina), the Progressives won a couple of Upper Midwest states and maybe California or Oregon, and the two big parties took their traditional strongholds, although the smaller factions were able to flip a few states by acting as spoilers.

EDIT: All right, here's the list:

Republican: SC (7) + MS (9) + VT (4) + ME (6) + NH (4) + MA (15) + RI (4) + MD (8) + PA (32) + KY (13) + IN (15) + MI (14) + MN (9) + IL (24) + MT (3) + UT (3) + ID (3) + WA (4) + WV (6).

Democratic: VA (13) + GA (13) + AL (11) + FL (4) + LA (8) + TX (15) + AR (8) + MO (17) + CA (9) + NY (36) + OH (23) + NJ (10).

Populist: NC (11) + TN (12) + KS (10) + NE (8) + Dak (5) + CO (5) + NV (3).

Progressive: WI (12) + IA (13) + OR (4) + DE (3).

Peace: CT (7).

 
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Woot! Connecticut voted peace! Absolutely loving how things are going, especially in America (although this political stuff is making me wonder how socialism is doing there given how the SLP have been my personal horse in the game for all the retrospective elections, also what's going on with Debs/Debses ATL sibling). Also is Mr. Bennett a real person (and if so can I have his first name?) because I can't find him after doing some quick research.
 
Hrm.... The Peace Party results are a little disappointing. Would have thought they could do a little better, though it does make sense that they'd be down at the bottom as the last-minute construction that they are. I know my paternal great grandfathers alternate equivalents certainly would have voted that way.

I'd have bet their congressmen would have clustered around PA, NJ, and RI anyway. All the Quakers, Amish, and Mennonites mucking about. Of course the Amish probably refused to vote, worse luck. With Clemens' momentum in Connecticut that'll be doubly so.

If the US did enter the war now, the Dems and GOP would probably throw a national unity government together and gently nudge these others to oblivion. As it stands though....

They (Clemens and company) don't seem to have a lot of options, as far as coalition politics or even horse trading go. The latter is much better - faithless electors or people voting their conscience from other parties will create some windows. If these parties have any discipline, though, they can't do much for the likely coalitions in congress except shore them up a bit after they already have a majority.

Any thoughts on that silver question? Looking at where the Populists were successful, it looks like there was still a "Great Depression" (the original 1873 Panic one) in this timeline.
 
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