Malê Rising

Parsees were really big in the China trade. Get some up to japan, initially trading for silk and tea, like at canton, then have someone go north and trade for furs. Some of the locals convert, and a few flow through the network back to india, and a couple are in some indian regiment in africa?

I'd say that they'd be bigger in business. And that's where the interest in East Africa comes in, especially with the added Indian involvement.

Also, just checked, and Tata would still be alive at this moment in time. So the Tata Group may very well be powerful players in both India and Zanzibar.
 
Well, Jamshedji Tata was a Parsi, and the Tata Group (if you still have it in the TL) is quite important to India, and was important to the British Raj as well. It doesn't necessarily have to be a religious look at the Parsis, as you yourself mention the fact that they weren't all too religious, but they would be an interesting point of view... If you had the Tata Group come about (Jamshedji was born per-POD), then I'm sure they would form larger interests in East Africa.

Tata was born around the time of the POD, and he developed his taste for business as a young man, so his career in TTL will be much the same as in OTL. At this point he's one of the leading members of the new industrial class in Baroda, with investments throughout India and the British empire. I expect that he'd have holdings in eastern and southern Africa - one or two of his family members might be Omani nobility by now - and he'll also be expanding into southeast Asia now that Britain has established hegemony in that region. He and his family will show up in TTL at some point - possibly as early as the fourth year of the war, if they play a part in the attempts to resolve India's troubles.

The other Parsis to watch are Dadabhai Naoroji and Mancherjee Bhownaggree, both of whom were members of Parliament in OTL. In TTL, Naoroji has been elected and Bhownaggree will be elected after the war; by century's end, they'll be joined by one or two other colonials.

Parsees were really big in the China trade. Get some up to japan, initially trading for silk and tea, like at canton, then have someone go north and trade for furs. Some of the locals convert, and a few flow through the network back to india, and a couple are in some indian regiment in africa?

The problem with converting Ainu to the Parsi religion is that the Parsi really made a point about NOT proselityzing.

True enough; in fact, if this is anything to go by, the Indian Parsis don't even accept voluntary converts (the Iranian Zoroastrians apparently do, but they aren't the ones involved in industry and international trade).

I suppose, though, that it might not be impossible for a village of Ainu to admire a Parsi merchant and decide to believe what he does, regardless of whether the other Parsis in India recognize them. After all, Bombay is a long way off. Then, a couple of these Ainu could become sailors, and if one of them jumps ship at Matadi and gets a job with a Brazilian timber company operating under concession to Portugal... voila, there's a Zoroastrian Ainu working for the Brazilians in the Congo.

More than one would probably be pushing it. All right, even one is pushing it, and I can't quite believe I'm talking about this, but it's too cool an idea not to happen. He'll have a cameo in the postwar Congo.

I'm pretty sure that was just a joke.

It was, but I prefer the word "challenge." :p
 
Bornu, March 1896

4RwhqAh.jpg

The motor wagon drove north across the savanna, accelerating as it went.

Usman felt every bounce as the wagon bumped over the scrubland, but he didn’t care. They’d traveled half an hour past knots of cheering troops, but now, as the wagons picked up speed, there was a palpable sense of anticipation, and not just because of the coming battle.

They were already moving at a fast canter, and now they drove more swiftly still. Thirty miles an hour, forty, then, incredibly, fifty – better than the fastest cavalry horse could gallop, faster than Usman had ever traveled in his life. They were going into battle and death, but this was better than a cavalry charge, better than the capoeira, and the sheer physical exhilaration of it was enough to make him shout like a child.

The men with him evidently agreed – the nineteen others in the bed of his wagon, and those in the forty-odd others that accompanied it, were whooping and shaking their rifles in the air. Usman could see Smuts, three wagons over, and for all the major’s professed coolness, he was acting just like the others. Birds or jungle cats might travel fifty miles an hour: the Malê now were hawks on the hunt, lions bearing down on their prey.

But then there was a whistling sound and an explosion a hundred yards in front, and another the same distance to one side: the French had seen them, and their guns had opened up. A 105-millimeter shell would shred one of the lightly armored wagons, and the French had become expert at blunting motor charges.

Not this one. These were a new generation of wagons, twice as fast as anything the enemy had faced before, and they hadn’t adjusted their lead. The next rounds fell behind the wagons, aimed at where they’d been just a moment before, and the charge drove on.

Some of the French gunners got lucky anyway. As Usman watched, a shell struck dead center on the wagon five over from his, turning it to scrap metal at a stroke. Another wagon lost a wheel to a pothole and rolled over on its side; the soldiers who still could, bailed out and ran for their lives. A moment later, another shell turned it into a column of fire, and Usman said a brief prayer for the men who’d still been there. But the others drove on.

The rounds were coming closer now, and Usman urged the wagons onward, willing them to close before the French gunners got the range. And then, he realized that they had: the enemy cavalry was in sight. These were the soldiers who screened the troops besieging Bornu’s capital, and if the wagons could break them, the British and Malê infantry could get around the besiegers’ flank and trap them.

The wagons shook into a double wedge formation and began to slow; speed had been critical before, but now they had to make the pass count. The Frenchmen, just as practiced as their enemies, responded. They knew how to deal with motor charges: clear the area directly in front of the wagons, get outside the machine guns’ field of fire, and regroup to attack them from the flanks and behind.

That was exactly what Usman had hoped they would do.

He wasn’t sure when he’d realized they’d been doing motor charges wrong. The mistake was treating wagons as cavalry. Use them that way, and they could be broken up and defeated like cavalry could. Use them as chariots, and they could be beaten with the tactics that Alexander used against the Persians: envelop them and swarm over them from all sides. But if they were used as infantry platforms…

My father fought in Spain eighty years ago, and he knew that an infantry square would beat cavalry every time. Put an infantry square on the bed of a wagon, and move it through cavalry at thirty miles an hour, and see what happens to the flank attacks then.

See what happens to them now.

“Ilorin!” he called. “Allah and the Malê!” And as he shouted, he saw.

The Frenchmen flowed around the first of the wagons, only to come within the next ones’ field of fire – and between the guns of the men on both sides. When Usman was a child, his father had told him that cavalry caught between two hollow squares rode through hell, and that was what the French horsemen faced.

Usman fired, and his shot went wild as the wagon bounced. “Shoot like a sailor, you!” shouted a sergeant behind him, and then, “begging your pardon, sidi,” as he realized who he’d berated.

“Nothing to pardon. I had it coming.” It wasn’t easy to time his shots to the wagon’s motion, for all he’d practiced with his men. He fired again, and a Frenchman fell from the saddle, more likely out of luck than skill, but that hardly mattered.

Behind him, the cavalrymen were exiting the other end of the gauntlet, just in time for the second wedge of wagons coming up behind them. Many more of them survived than not, but the Malê didn’t have to kill them all; they just had to break them up, scatter them, make them easy prey for the horse cavalry that followed.

They were doing that, it seemed. The Frenchmen behind him were in confusion, unable to regroup, and as many of those still ahead were running away as were trying to attack. They weren’t fast enough to escape. Another wagon went up in flames as a 105 shell struck home, but the others drove on, sweeping the cavalry before them.

Disorganized as they were, though, some of the French shots struck home, and one of them struck Usman. The bullet hit him almost precisely where the first one had, forty years ago and more; it was a grazing wound, but he fell against the wooden railing of the wagon bed, and it crumbled beneath him. He landed heavily on his left side as the wagon sped on.

There was another coming up behind, and he saw it start to slow down. “No!” he called, waving it onward. “Don’t break formation!” He’d put the wagons in a wedge to ensure that as few as possible would be hit by their own side’s fire, and if they didn’t stay that way, the soldiers to either side would be in danger. By some miracle, the driver understood, and the wagon sped past.

And suddenly Usman had other things to worry about, as a French cavalryman bore down on him, grateful for a target within his reach. The enemy leaned down in the saddle and slashed down wickedly with his saber. Usman parried with his rifle stock, and felt an agony in his left arm that was unlike anything he’d ever experienced; it was broken for sure. But the saber was turned, and the Frenchman was past him.

He tried to stand, and found that he could; his leg hurt like hell, but it supported him. He saw that six of the wagons had reached the French batteries and that the gun crews were scattering; the others were through the cavalry altogether, and were turning for another pass. And there were other horsemen coming in his direction: a regiment of Bornu cavalry, ensuring that the Frenchmen had no chance to regroup.

One of them pulled up beside Usman and patted his saddle. The Malê nodded; this was a ride he was willing to accept. “You’ll have to help me, brother,” he said, and reached up with his good arm; the Bornu officer pulled him up onto the horse.

“We’ve got them, sidi!” the officer shouted, and Usman saw that it was true. The Frenchmen that weren’t running for their lives were surrendering to the oncoming cavalry, and behind them came wagonloads of Tommies and Malê infantry to complete the encirclement of the troops besieging the city. The French infantry would be caught between the hammer of the surrounding soldiers and the anvil of the town’s defenders, and they were low on ammunition and a long way from reinforcements. Some of the men in the wagons would be dead within the hour, but they were cheering; they knew as well as Usman that they were riding to victory.

“What now, sidi?” the Bornu officer asked. “Where do we go?” After two years of fanatically defending his country, he seemed unable to believe that they were finally on the attack.

“To Tripoli,” Usman answered, “if we can get those damned things across the desert. And then Algiers.” Now he was the one who didn’t quite believe what he was saying, that these cities might be more than a distant dream.

“Let’s break the siege first,” the other man said, and Usman nodded; the road to Algiers was a long one, and there were many things to do before they set foot on it. “And before that, let’s get you to the rear.”

The Malê colonel started to protest, but realized he didn’t have it in him, not with the battle all but won. “Yes, sir,” he answered, and he said nothing else as the Bornu officer went to find a field hospital.
 
Awesome update. Were trucks ever used this way in WWI, in the Middle East, maybe?

Thanks! As far as I know, they weren't; the war in the Middle East wasn't mechanized (the West African theater in TTL is only mechanized because of the Malê successor states' involvement in British automotive development programs), and WW1 trucks were used exclusively as transport, artillery tractors, or platforms for machine guns and light artillery. There are fairly obvious disadvantages to using truck beds as infantry platforms - they aren't the most stable place to stand - so the developers of assault vehicles in OTL focused on gun platforms and armor. In TTL, with armor not yet practical, armies have been more willing to live with these disadvantages.

The trucks used in this battle have 90-hp straight-6 engines (which existed in OTL by about 1903) and are lightly constructed, to the point of sacrificing strength for speed and maneuverability. They're temperamental, vulnerable to artillery and rough terrain (as seen in the update) and not much use during the rainy season, but they can outrun and outflank cavalry and get through field artillery kill zones quickly. They're lighter than transport trucks, with a two-ton payload, and can make 50 miles an hour running flat-out. They are called Ekun, which is the Yoruba word for leopard.

Technicals in the African desert.

Some things never change, I guess. :p

Yup. Funny how this battle was inspired by two wars 170 years apart.
 
Year 3 summary, part 1 of 2

Keiko Nomura, East Asia in the Great War (Tokyo: Meiji, 1975)

6XaJk5F.jpg

… Historians often argue about whether the Japanese conflict with Russia and Korea was really part of the Great War. In some ways, it was not: Japan did not declare war on any of the FAR powers other than Russia, and never formally joined the BOG alliance. But in other respects, the Japanese-Russian war was inextricably intertwined with the global conflict. It is doubtful that Japan would have risked war with a European power so soon had Russia not been distracted and had Britain and the North German Confederation not offered subsidies and diplomatic concessions, and it took the Great War to resolve the conflict between the militarist and diplomatic factions in the imperial court in favor of the former.

Before the war, the prospect of increasing Japanese influence in Korea through expanding commercial interests and building ties with pro-Japan nobles and gentry seemed less risky than open war with Russia, and with much of the opposition to the Empress Myeongseong favoring an alliance with Japan, this strategy carried considerable likelihood of success. During wartime, however, the strategic balance shifted in favor of striking immediately while Russia was otherwise occupied, and the members of the BOG alliance, wanting to open another front against Russia, offered increasingly tempting prizes if Japan were to declare war.

The two decisive incidents happened within days of each other. In November 1895, an anti-Japanese riot swept Seoul in response to rumors of war, resulting in eight Japanese merchants and their families being killed. That same week, the British ambassador approached the imperial court with the best offer yet: immediate abrogation of all unequal treaties, most-favored-nation status in all the BOG powers, a cash subsidy, a substantial write-down of the debts that Japan had incurred as part of the Meiji modernization and the right to keep all Russian territory that the imperial army could conquer and hold. The public anger at the Seoul riots put the Japanese court in the proper frame of mind to accept the BOG terms, and on December 17, Japan declared war on both Russia and Korea.

The Japanese war aims were threefold: seize the outlying Russian islands and Siberian port cities, neutralize Russia’s Pacific fleet, and conquer Korea. The first of these was nearly an unqualified success. With the aid of local Japanese settlers, the imperial army seized the northern Kuril islands during the first week of the war and made a nearly uncontested landing on Sakhalin. Within a month, Sakhalin and the Commander Islands had fallen and, although shore batteries and strong landward defenses prevented an attack on Vladivostok, a lightning assault on Petropavlovsk was successful.

The other objectives proved more troublesome. The Russian fleet had already been softened up somewhat by the Royal Navy, and the Japanese Navy was able to hold its own, but was unable to score a decisive victory. And in Korea, the Japanese high command had accurately assessed Russia’s distraction but had seriously underestimated the strength of the Koreans themselves.

The initial Japanese landing at Busan succeeded with minimal casualties, but as the imperial force proceeded north, it was waylaid by peasant armies who were fanatically anti-Japanese and who had been made loyal to Empress Myeongseong’s government through tax reforms and half-hearted land distributions. Detachments of Korea’s Russian-trained army helped the peasants harry the advancing Japanese forces, while the bulk of the army, along with the Russian troops present on the peninsula, established a defensive line along the upper Nakdong and the Sobaek Mountains. The winter conditions made the Japanese advance difficult, and the invasion force was insufficient to defeat an entrenched enemy; by early March, the Japanese gains had stalled, and in places, the Koreans were even starting to push them back.

Japan responded by assembling a second, much larger invasion force, to land at Busan come springtime. It also, belatedly, took measures to legitimize its rule in the parts of Korea it occupied – something it had thought unnecessary during the initial stages of the war – by promising concessions to the conservative gentry and offering the Buddhist monks, many of whom opposed the quasi-Christian shamanism of the peasant armies, a role in education and government.

In the meantime, the Russians and Koreans prepared their defenses, and appealed to China for aid. At this time, the imperial Chinese government was recovering from the near-fatal weakness of the 1860s and 70s; it had largely regained control over its territory, substantially modernized its military, and undertaken real if halting administrative reforms. China was still no match for Japan on its own, and had done poorly in recent engagements against the Japanese army, but could still add considerable weight to the defending force – and if it were able to defeat Japan, even as junior partner to Russia, it would regain part of its lost prestige.

The Chinese court, like its Japanese counterpart, was divided, but the Emperor – who, unlike his Japanese counterpart, held ultimate power – favored war. He saw military victory not only as a way to regain prestige for China but also to prove the superiority of reform and modernization, and to overcome conservative opposition to his administrative program. What proved to be the deciding factor was Russia’s offer to restore Korea’s nominal vassalage to China in exchange for Chinese help in beating back the invasion…

*******​

Raden Mas Suwardi Suryaningrat, Scholars, Sultans and Dutchmen: The Indies in the Great War (Yogyakarta: Gadjah Mada, 1946)

… In the Dutch East Indies, matters went from bad to worse for the colonial power during the third year of the war. In the spring of 1895, they were confronted with a full-scale rebellion in the Boni sultanate, which had put the fortress of Makassar under siege, and faced demands for reforms from a coalition of nationalist leaders in Java itself. [1] Had the Dutch made concessions to the Javanese and freed their remaining colonial forces to attack Boni, they might have brought both situations under control within a relatively short time. But instead, they did the opposite: they responded to the Javanese demands with panic and military force, and found themselves with little to spare for the outlying parts of their empire.

The Javanese leaders hadn’t planned for an armed rebellion against Dutch rule. Instead, the nationalists, who came mainly from the educated santri class and the Hadhrami merchant community, demanded administrative reforms such as their counterparts in India advocated: equality under the law, an elected legislature, local control of government and education, and an end to repressive taxation and land policy. The Dutch reaction caught them by surprise, and the mass arrests that accompanied the declaration of martial law in Batavia neutralized much of the nationalist movement’s leadership. Those who remained at large, however, were the hard-liners who had called for revolt in the first place, and who had declined to attend the reformists’ congress. These men – also santri, but with roots among the abangan peasants due to the Islamic education networks that had been established over the past half-decade [2] – retreated to central Java and mobilized a peasant army to resist the Dutch.

The abangan were at first reluctant to revolt, but the savage Dutch reprisals swayed many of them to the nationalist side. They could not stand against the Dutch forces in a pitched battle, but under the leadership of the santri, they harassed and ambushed Dutch patrols and mounted a campaign of disobedience against colonial taxes. By late 1895, they had tied down many times their number of Dutch troops – many more, in fact, than the colonial authorities could really spare. The increasing need for troops in the mountains of Java meant that there were not enough to relieve Makassar, and in October 1895, it fell to the Boni army and nine hundred Dutch soldiers were taken prisoner.

Throughout this time, the Netherlands appealed to Britain for help, requesting that, since the war in the Southeast Asian theater had ended, drafts of Indian troops be sent to help put down the rebellion. Britain did provide arms to the Dutch authorities, and granted them permission to recruit volunteers, but it needed its Indian regiments to fight in Europe and East Africa and to defend the northwest frontier of India itself; moreover, given the delicate state of relations between the Raj and the Congress, it was uncertain whether Indian regiments would even agree to serve in a colonial war. The Dutch were able to recruit a brigade or two of Indian volunteers, many of them refugees from the political struggles within India, and about the same number from Siam and Indochina. But beyond that, they had to fight on their own – a situation which would sour Dutch-British relations for decades.

Faced with little choice, the Dutch made concessions to the outlying islands in order to concentrate on Java. In December 1895, they signed treaties with the Boni sultanate, and several other kingdoms on Sulawesi and Borneo. These kingdoms remained nominal Dutch vassals and agreed to pay an annual tribute, but the colonial government recognized their full internal autonomy and their right to control their ports and internal trade. The settlement made the outlying islands the equivalent of the princely states in British India and Africa, a status they would hold for the remainder of the colonial period.

1896 thus began with Dutch troops withdrawing from much of the outlying Indies and mounting a renewed offensive in central Java, aiming to root out all traces of resistance. This was a time that would be remembered in Javanese nationalist legend, and it was also the time that the armed rebellion was joined by an unarmed one. This would be called the “Revolt of the Women,” because the santri women who had gone into the countryside as Islamic teachers would be its organizers, and the peasant women the ones who carried it out…

*******​
T1U4A9U.png

Parvati Temaru, Parceling Out Paradise: The Stockholm Conference (Royal Hawaiian Univ. Press, 2011)

… In February 1896, representatives of Britain, France, Spain, the North German Confederation, Japan and the United States gathered in one of the few remaining neutral capitals. Their meeting was remarkable not only for the fact that France was at war with two of the other participants, but also for what, in the middle of global conflict, it hoped to achieve. The Stockholm Conference represented a second attempt at what the great powers had failed to do at Brussels: to set rules to the game of colonialism and to remove an entire region as a source of conflict between them. In Brussels, the subject had been Africa; at Stockholm, it was the Pacific.

The immediate catalyst for the conference was the “Honolulu Incident” of 31 December 1895, in which British and French naval crews combined to defeat a coup attempt against the Hawaiian monarchy. Both captains involved in the incident were sternly reprimanded by their respective nations, neither of which cared to have its frigate captains conduct freelance foreign policy or forget that they were at war. But the circumstances of the coup – and especially the fact that it was financed and armed by wealthy American interests – made the warring powers realize that their distraction put their Pacific holdings in danger of being seized. The result was the hastily-organized conference, with the aim of including the United States in a mutually-agreed diplomatic and administrative framework rather than having it act as a rogue power.

The notion of inviting France was controversial, especially since its prewar Pacific colonies were by then under British occupation. But others pointed out that France had extant treaties of friendship with several Pacific monarchies, and that even if it had lost its political hold on New Caledonia and Tahiti, it still had large commercial interests – and tens of thousands of citizens – there and elsewhere. And the Honolulu Incident, for all both participants disavowed it, was a reminder of the French Navy’s value in helping to keep the peace. In the end, the French diplomats, in neutral transport and under safe-conduct granted by the British and North German navies, departed from Bilbao and went to join their enemies at the Swedish capital…

… The proposals made at Stockholm were informed by the aftermath of Brussels and the bitter experience of the Great War. Rather than trying to divide the uncolonized Pacific into zones of influence, it was proposed that this region be owned by none and open to all. The powers would guarantee the independence of those Pacific islands not yet part of any empire, and all signatory nations would have freedom of trade and navigation there, as well as the right to use each other’s depots and coaling stations as long as they were not at war with each other.

This was not done out of regard for the Pacific islanders’ sovereignty. To the contrary, the powers would have extraterritorial rights in the Pacific monarchies similar to those they had in China and had but lately given up in Japan, and the draft treaty called for the signatories to cooperate in forcing the Pacific states to grant such concessions. The parties also agreed, without the formality of consulting the Pacific kingdoms, that citizens of each could own land anywhere in the Pacific and could import laborers from their respective empires. But for all that, the formal independence of the remaining Pacific states was preserved, and the powers committed themselves to end blackbirding and its related abuses.

In the end, Britain and France accepted these proposals without much controversy, as did the Japanese and Germans, whose Pacific ambitions were still notional, and Spain, whose Pacific empire was unprofitable and which had little ambition to expand. The sticking point was the United States, which had repudiated the Hawaiian coup attempt but which still had influential factions that considered Hawaii a de facto American possession and wanted to expand the manifest-destiny policy into the Pacific. When news of the Stockholm negotiations inevitably leaked, they became a subject of controversy, and – along with the incident that would soon unfold in Tonga – would become one of the defining issues of the 1896 election…

*******​

William Chang, The Imperial Question and the Rise of the Fourth Party System (San Francisco: Golden Gate, 2004)

… In 1896, the conflict between the progressives, populists and traditionalists within the Democratic and Republican Parties finally came to a head. The Republican Party was the more cohesive of the two; as the party in power, it was able to buy off many dissidents with plum assignments or programmatic concessions, and the reforms of the Chandler administration [3] had gone some way toward mollifying the more moderate reformists. The United States had prospered from the wartime trade, Chandler’s administration was relatively scandal-free, and the president was widely considered to have steered an astute diplomatic course. But even so, the more radical of the populists and progressives realized that they had little chance of dictating the party platform at the 1896 convention, especially since they were often at odds with each other. And in the Democratic Party, where four years in opposition had accentuated factional differences, the infighting between the reformists and the traditional party establishment reached even greater heights.

The dissidents in both parties had crossed the aisle for years to vote together on their pet issues, and had occasionally talked about creating one or more new factions. By late 1895, these discussions had become serious, and in January 1896, a group of congressmen, state legislators and appointed officials from both major parties announced the formation of the Progressive Party. The following month, a similar bipartisan caucus – this time of populists – declared that they would contest the election as the People’s Party. The two parties had become four, with the conservatives and traditionalists leading the rump Democrats and Republicans into the election season.

And at that, the fracturing was not complete, because events in Hawaii and the Amazon, as well as Samuel Clemens’ celebrated antiwar journalism, had made imperialism a key electoral issue. The Populists and Republicans – the latter of which was at heart a conservative party of farmers and businessmen, and looked askance at international entanglements – were mostly against American entry into the war, but there were exceptions in each. The Democrats, who had positioned themselves during the past three years as the party of renewed manifest destiny, had become the home of the war party, funded by powerful industrialists. The Progressives were split, with some advocating a “moral imperialism,” although more had swung to the antiwar side as the peace movement continued to expose the motives of the pro-war faction.

Many in the peace campaign didn’t trust any of the four – and, more to the point, they realized that all of them, except possibly the Democrats, would campaign primarily on domestic policy. At a meeting in New York in early March 1896, they resolved to form a party of their own – the National Peace Party – that would make opposition to the war the centerpiece of its campaign, and which would guarantee not to compromise its antiwar stance in exchange for domestic concessions. The new party scheduled its convention for June, but it was already clear that Clemens would be its presidential candidate.

And the presidential election was by no means the only one affected by the shakeup. Among the announcements made at the National Peace Party’s founding meeting was that Harriet Tubman would run for Congress under its banner in South Carolina’s lowland First District. That made her, at a stroke, the first woman to seek a House seat and the first African-American candidate to seek office in South Carolina as anything other than a Republican. And with the state party itself – one of the few that hadn’t split – divided into multiple factions, it was clear that the campaign there would be a dramatic one…

*******​

nggV5Rh.jpg

Aminatou Salazar, Africa’s Twentieth Century (Univ. of Sokoto Press, 2010)

… By the third year of the Great War, the transformation of all but one of the Great Lakes kingdoms and part of the eastern Congo into peasant-herder-religious commonwealths was well under way. Ankole, and that part of southeastern Buganda held by the Eighth King [4], had already adopted this model before the war; in 1893, they were joined by Samuel the Lamanite’s emergent state at Boyoma [5] and in 1895 by Rwanda. Burundi and Bunyoro, and two smaller regions in the eastern Congo basin, would follow by war’s end.

These states came from a bewildering variety of religious traditions – charismatic Christianity in Ankole, Islam in Rwanda, heterodox Mormonism at Boyoma, radical Catholicism in Burundi, traditional animism in Bunyoro and a syncretic pan-Abrahamic prophetic tradition in the Eighth King’s realm. But these traditions would lead them to some strikingly similar places. In each of them, the old monarchy and herding aristocracy, discredited by a decade and a half of repression and endemic conflict, would be replaced by a tripartite power structure of the upper peasantry, the chiefs of livestock collectives, and a religious-based civil administration. All of them succeeded in eliminating pre-existing caste distinctions, and all embraced some form of communal ownership of land, water and livestock. The founding leader of each claimed prophetic authority, and a radical “liberation theology” would be would be a major part of each one’s state ideology.

In other ways, their paths were very different. In Ankole, the new order was supported by an indigenous religious hierarchy, was compatible in many ways with pre-existing animist traditions, and enjoyed close ties to the Swedish Carlsenists of the Omani empire and the Masai among whom they lived. These internal and external ties lent it support and cohesion, and by the 1890s it had developed into a stable, consensual and relatively egalitarian republic, albeit not a fully democratic one. The Eighth King, as well, was steeped in indigenous tradition and had a loyal professional army, and was able to implement his social transformations without great trouble.

The Army of Samuel, in contrast, was a minority faith in the area it ruled, and many of its soldiers were migrants from other parts of the Congo; as such, it found itself in control of a restive population that resisted many of its social prescriptions. Its initial response to this was harsh. In early 1894, Samuel decreed that anyone who did not accept his faith must be expelled, and the result was many forced conversions and more pogroms. This policy would last only a short time before Samuel recoiled at its cruelty; it is said that he visited a village that his army had destroyed, looked upon the bodies of its slain children, and said, “I have sinned.” After that, people of other faiths were allowed to stay and their property was protected, although they were denied a vote in the affairs of the republic.

This still left Samuel in a precarious position, and his attempts to rectify that situation ranged from the practical to the quixotic. He sent expeditions throughout the Congo basin to offer sanctuary to oppressed Mormons, and he dispatched emissaries to Salt Lake City to invite American Mormons – who he addressed as “godly Nephites” – to settle in his state. He also offered autonomy to the remaining non-Mormons, allowing the upper peasantry and wealthy herders to act as judges in internal matters and unwittingly creating a social structure very similar to that in the Great Lakes republics. But the memory of the expulsions remained, and while he had earned some gratitude by eliminating the forced labor that had prevailed under the rubber companies’ rule, his hold over his realm remained far from certain.

The new regime in Rwanda encountered different problems. The revolutionary leader, Mélisande – she had no known surname – was a nineteen-year-old visionary with no political or administrative experience. She was backed by an indigenous religious structure, but it was a minority (albeit a substantial one), non-hierarchical, and after a decade of persecution, disorganized. It was unable to support her rule as strongly as the Eighth King’s priesthood or the Brotherhood Faith Assembly in Ankole, and many of the old herd-chiefs and land-chiefs were able to keep their power for lack of an effective check. The mainline Christian missionaries who remained in Rwanda, and who had supported the monarchy, and they became the focus of opposition to Mélisande’s Islamic civil government.

It was already clear by the spring of 1896 that the new government would face a struggle in implementing its reforms. What Mélisande did to break the stalemate would prove just as revolutionary as her original jihad had been…
_______

[1] See post 1893.

[2] See post 1310.

[3] See post 1219.

[4] See post 1044.

[5] OTL Kisangani.
 

Hnau

Banned
Really epic battle there, Jonathan, the stuff of future blockbusters ITTL I'm sure. :D

EDIT: Oh! This just got updated! Well fancy that. :)
 
You're spoiling us with so many good updates...
Only thing that I found a bit unrealistic was the Stockholm conference. A conference about a disputed region during a world-wide war, with representatives of all sides attending and agreeing on a compromise? You explained why it happens, but I'm not convinced. Surely, the instinct of everyone involved is to see what they can do during the war to improve their final position, and the stocks of political goodwill and reason will be very low. I can imagine the decisions of Stockholm being a part of the outcome of a final peace conference that ends the war, but finding a reasonable compromise for one part of the world while the participants are unable to resolve their conflicts peacefully in other parts of the world and still are actively fighting? I cannot see it happen.
 
You're spoiling us with so many good updates...
Only thing that I found a bit unrealistic was the Stockholm conference. A conference about a disputed region during a world-wide war, with representatives of all sides attending and agreeing on a compromise? You explained why it happens, but I'm not convinced. Surely, the instinct of everyone involved is to see what they can do during the war to improve their final position, and the stocks of political goodwill and reason will be very low. I can imagine the decisions of Stockholm being a part of the outcome of a final peace conference that ends the war, but finding a reasonable compromise for one part of the world while the participants are unable to resolve their conflicts peacefully in other parts of the world and still are actively fighting? I cannot see it happen.

I'm afraid I have to agree. Even for two friendly powers to agree to something in the modern era takes considerable time and good will (see the EU-US free trade pact under negotiation) and a multilateral compromise deal is even harder (see the Trans-Pacific Free Trade Area). Throw in a war and the lure of colonialism? I just don't see it happening.

Otherwise, great update! :)

Cheers,
Ganesha
 

iddt3

Donor
I'm afraid I have to agree. Even for two friendly powers to agree to something in the modern era takes considerable time and good will (see the EU-US free trade pact under negotiation) and a multilateral compromise deal is even harder (see the Trans-Pacific Free Trade Area). Throw in a war and the lure of colonialism? I just don't see it happening.

Otherwise, great update! :)

Cheers,
Ganesha
Especially when there is the option to try and pull the US in on your side by offering concessions. The US has an incredible amount of leverage here, it doesn't even need to threaten war, just threaten to favor the other side with loans and the like.
 
You're spoiling us with so many good updates...
Only thing that I found a bit unrealistic was the Stockholm conference. A conference about a disputed region during a world-wide war, with representatives of all sides attending and agreeing on a compromise? You explained why it happens, but I'm not convinced. Surely, the instinct of everyone involved is to see what they can do during the war to improve their final position, and the stocks of political goodwill and reason will be very low. I can imagine the decisions of Stockholm being a part of the outcome of a final peace conference that ends the war, but finding a reasonable compromise for one part of the world while the participants are unable to resolve their conflicts peacefully in other parts of the world and still are actively fighting? I cannot see it happen.

I'm afraid I have to agree. Even for two friendly powers to agree to something in the modern era takes considerable time and good will (see the EU-US free trade pact under negotiation) and a multilateral compromise deal is even harder (see the Trans-Pacific Free Trade Area). Throw in a war and the lure of colonialism? I just don't see it happening.

Especially when there is the option to try and pull the US in on your side by offering concessions. The US has an incredible amount of leverage here, it doesn't even need to threaten war, just threaten to favor the other side with loans and the like.

Fair points all. I thought about this myself, and I agree that the Stockholm Conference is a stretch, and that every instinct would tell the parties to wait until the end of the war. What might overcome those instincts, IMO, is the fear that if they wait that long, the United States, which isn't distracted by war, might come in and grab everything. This is one situation where the interests of the BOGs and FARs are aligned and in which procrastination might carry a heavy penalty. And given that the US has thus far resisted joining the war and is divided in which side it favors, the possibility of offering concessions to get it on one or the other side might not seem realistic.

You'll note that the draft agreement only applies to the independent Pacific kingdoms, which means that the losing side's possessions are still on the table when the peace treaty is negotiated, and that the treaty is drawn in terms which don't restrict either side from prosecuting the war. The point of the conference is to agree that there are certain things the war isn't about, which is something that has been done even in wartime, and to set rules for exploiting territories that the powers deem too expensive and out-of-the-way to colonize outright.

I also imagine that the agreement is drawn in very general terms - much less detailed than a modern free trade pact - and that the parties will agree that there are many details to be filled in after the war. Right now, the important thing is to set up a general framework which gets the United States inside the tent pissing out rather than vice versa.

Also, these negotiations aren't proceeding from a clean slate; Hawaii is an internationally recognized state at this point (both in OTL and TTL) and the powers have no doubt had informal discussions about the Pacific for decades.

I'm going to argue that stranger things have happened, and that the urgency of the situation makes something like the Stockholm Conference possible (albeit remarkable), but if you still disagree, I'm willing to listen to contrary arguments.

The Swedish Carlensists?

They're mentioned here and here, and their relationship with Ankole is discussed here.

Anyway, I'm planning for the second half of the third-year wrap-up, which should appear in a few days, to cover (a) the state of play in the major theaters, including the politics of the southern German states where the suppression of pan-Germanism is finally coming home to roost; (b) the political situation in India; and (c) some aspects of wartime technology, including efforts at developing an industrial scale nitrogen-fixing process. Does anyone have anything else they want to see?
 
Top