It has no true rival if it successfully reforms and would be safe from the Europeans until the 19th century. As a muslim state it wouldn't sell it's own citizens into slavery but surrounding pagans are fare game so it would expand if only to capture more slaves. It would probably keep general technological parity with the West or at least the Ottomans seeing as Timbuktu was one of the greatest learning centers in the world, though it's military would have little reason to be as effective.
Here's your problem. With no true rival, there is little incentive to reform, let alone progress technologically.It has no true rival if it successfully reforms
Then again, depending on the state of the Kingdom and its objectives (i.e. is it going to be a Saharan, Sub-Saharan, or Transatlatic power) it could do any number of things. I expect it is more likely that they'd become a colonial power, effectively meaning that rather than being sellers, they'd probably be exporting criminals to "Penal Colonies" in OTL Brazil, and importing a large quantity of the wood that Europe had that was good for Trans-atlantic ship building. Lumber and Salt for gold and slaves? Different triangle trade, but still a valuable one that would cause massive inflation in Europe.
Would it really need to import European wood when it could be using indigenous sources of tropical hardwoods (like the Spanish often did for many of their ships) in West Africa or its New World colonies?
I was under the impression that West Africa didn't have the same abundance of timber suitable for shipbuilding, throwing what can stick, etc. Still, a shipload of salt is no bad trade.
I'd be curious to know the quantities of good ship-building wood, to understand if there is a risk of deforestation, even over-cutting of these hardwoods.
West Africa has the African mahogany, which are often used for canoe building there (and also are used in traditional medicine to counter malaria). Maybe bilinga or iroko. I'm not sure if any of those would be suitable, but they all seem to have uses in boat-building and look like decent hardwoods. And besides, it isn't like the Malinese need to be copying European ship designs to cross the Atlantic, or if they do at first, they'll rapidly put their own spin on things and use woods they have available.
Cuban mahogany is endangered now, but that's after centuries of exploitation by the Spanish for building a sizable chunk of their navy. And that's not considering all the other uses for mahogany over the centuries.
The alleged Abubakari II fleet should not be taken without a huge grain of salt. Even in the time of Mansa Musa, the Manden state did not have much by way of port infrastructure, much less oceangoing ships. There are hurdles which prevent any *Mali from expanding south into the Bight of Benin and getting a coast (namely, you have to contend with the tsetse). While they did have nominal control over what is now Senegal and there was known to be a trading settlement on what is now the river site called Morfil, it's pretty unlikely that those were oceangoing ports. The settlements in that area were geared towards land-based trade routes and trade of goods through the caravans of the veiled Sanhaja who controlled the Saharan crossings.Maybe I’d the fleet from America return and didn’t settle in the area then they would have a huge head start
I wonder what they'd look like to be fair. I sadly can't find anything atm on Abu Bakr IIs fleet, but I don't think it is unreasonable (since others copies the ship designs at least initially) that they'd be heavily influenced if the Europeans are the ones who instigate any interaction.
The alleged Abubakari II fleet should not be taken without a huge grain of salt. Even in the time of Mansa Musa, the Manden state did not have much by way of port infrastructure, much less oceangoing ships. There are hurdles which prevent any *Mali from expanding south into the Bight of Benin and getting a coast (namely, you have to contend with the tsetse). While they did have nominal control over what is now Senegal and there was known to be a trading settlement on what is now the river site called Morfil, it's pretty unlikely that those were oceangoing ports. The settlements in that area were geared towards land-based trade routes and trade of goods through the caravans of the veiled Sanhaja who controlled the Saharan crossings.
The Mandinka were certainly accomplished navigators of rivers and knew how to build pirogues. But you're not going to cross the Atlantic in a pirogue. You'd need a POD well before Sundiata Keita to get something like this, at least in order to have a Mali which both a) has more of a diverse commercial presence in Senegal and b) has more obstacles to the land route.
Theoretically you could see a Mali last longer or strengthen its position if you had some sort of early alt-colonization scenario in which Mali got looped into the new intercontinental trade network early and got access to the New World crop package. One of the big problems in Mali is that the local crop package isn't so hot. If they can get access to someone with New World stuff, they can add staple crops like maize, cassava and to some extent amaranth and chili and bell peppers, on top of luxury crops like the cacao bean and various New World nuts.
I love the idea of Mali building a Sahelian empire on a foundation of cassava so much that I might just use it myself.