Mali empire doesn’t collapse

It has no true rival if it successfully reforms and would be safe from the Europeans until the 19th century. As a muslim state it wouldn't sell it's own citizens into slavery but surrounding pagans are fare game so it would expand if only to capture more slaves. It would probably keep general technological parity with the West or at least the Ottomans seeing as Timbuktu was one of the greatest learning centers in the world, though it's military would have little reason to be as effective.
 
It has no true rival if it successfully reforms and would be safe from the Europeans until the 19th century. As a muslim state it wouldn't sell it's own citizens into slavery but surrounding pagans are fare game so it would expand if only to capture more slaves. It would probably keep general technological parity with the West or at least the Ottomans seeing as Timbuktu was one of the greatest learning centers in the world, though it's military would have little reason to be as effective.

I wouldn't be so sure of that. After all, Sakoura Mansa was himself a slave before rising to rule.

Plus, Mali was a willing participant in the Arab Trans-saharan slave trade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_slave_trade#"Supply"_zones

I personally think that if Mali was stronger, then I think it may well make selling as slaves a punishment for a wide array of crimes. Simply because it would be more profitable for Mali, and being stronger, they'd be setting tougher terms as it'd be hard to get slaves legally from anyone else.

Then again, depending on the state of the Kingdom and its objectives (i.e. is it going to be a Saharan, Sub-Saharan, or Transatlatic power) it could do any number of things. I expect it is more likely that they'd become a colonial power, effectively meaning that rather than being sellers, they'd probably be exporting criminals to "Penal Colonies" in OTL Brazil, and importing a large quantity of the wood that Europe had that was good for Trans-atlantic ship building. Lumber and Salt for gold and slaves? Different triangle trade, but still a valuable one that would cause massive inflation in Europe.
 
Actually I think slavery would be less prominent then OTL. Mali resorted to slave trade because it couldn't compete with Songhai's monopoly on the gold trade. So manpower was the most valuable thing Mali had to offer to European markets.
 
Then again, depending on the state of the Kingdom and its objectives (i.e. is it going to be a Saharan, Sub-Saharan, or Transatlatic power) it could do any number of things. I expect it is more likely that they'd become a colonial power, effectively meaning that rather than being sellers, they'd probably be exporting criminals to "Penal Colonies" in OTL Brazil, and importing a large quantity of the wood that Europe had that was good for Trans-atlantic ship building. Lumber and Salt for gold and slaves? Different triangle trade, but still a valuable one that would cause massive inflation in Europe.

Would it really need to import European wood when it could be using indigenous sources of tropical hardwoods (like the Spanish often did for many of their ships) in West Africa or its New World colonies?
 
Would it really need to import European wood when it could be using indigenous sources of tropical hardwoods (like the Spanish often did for many of their ships) in West Africa or its New World colonies?

I was under the impression that West Africa didn't have the same abundance of timber suitable for shipbuilding, throwing what can stick, etc. Still, a shipload of salt is no bad trade.

I'd be curious to know the quantities of good ship-building wood, to understand if there is a risk of deforestation, even over-cutting of these hardwoods.
 
I’m not really sold on Malian overseas colonies. OTOH if Mali pulls a Tanzimat and start making manufactured goods for regional substitution it could prove disruptive to the triangular trade, driving up cost of slaves and reducing their export.

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I was under the impression that West Africa didn't have the same abundance of timber suitable for shipbuilding, throwing what can stick, etc. Still, a shipload of salt is no bad trade.

West Africa has the African mahogany, which are often used for canoe building there (and also are used in traditional medicine to counter malaria). Maybe bilinga or iroko. I'm not sure if any of those would be suitable, but they all seem to have uses in boat-building and look like decent hardwoods. And besides, it isn't like the Malinese need to be copying European ship designs to cross the Atlantic, or if they do at first, they'll rapidly put their own spin on things and use woods they have available.

I'd be curious to know the quantities of good ship-building wood, to understand if there is a risk of deforestation, even over-cutting of these hardwoods.

Cuban mahogany is endangered now, but that's after centuries of exploitation by the Spanish for building a sizable chunk of their navy. And that's not considering all the other uses for mahogany over the centuries.
 
West Africa has the African mahogany, which are often used for canoe building there (and also are used in traditional medicine to counter malaria). Maybe bilinga or iroko. I'm not sure if any of those would be suitable, but they all seem to have uses in boat-building and look like decent hardwoods. And besides, it isn't like the Malinese need to be copying European ship designs to cross the Atlantic, or if they do at first, they'll rapidly put their own spin on things and use woods they have available.

I wonder what they'd look like to be fair. I sadly can't find anything atm on Abu Bakr IIs fleet, but I don't think it is unreasonable (since others copies the ship designs at least initially) that they'd be heavily influenced if the Europeans are the ones who instigate any interaction.

Cuban mahogany is endangered now, but that's after centuries of exploitation by the Spanish for building a sizable chunk of their navy. And that's not considering all the other uses for mahogany over the centuries.

I get the point there. It'd be interesting to see fleets of Khaya ships.
 
Maybe I’d the fleet from America return and didn’t settle in the area then they would have a huge head start
The alleged Abubakari II fleet should not be taken without a huge grain of salt. Even in the time of Mansa Musa, the Manden state did not have much by way of port infrastructure, much less oceangoing ships. There are hurdles which prevent any *Mali from expanding south into the Bight of Benin and getting a coast (namely, you have to contend with the tsetse). While they did have nominal control over what is now Senegal and there was known to be a trading settlement on what is now the river site called Morfil, it's pretty unlikely that those were oceangoing ports. The settlements in that area were geared towards land-based trade routes and trade of goods through the caravans of the veiled Sanhaja who controlled the Saharan crossings.

The Mandinka were certainly accomplished navigators of rivers and knew how to build pirogues. But you're not going to cross the Atlantic in a pirogue. You'd need a POD well before Sundiata Keita to get something like this, at least in order to have a Mali which both a) has more of a diverse commercial presence in Senegal and b) has more obstacles to the land route.



Theoretically you could see a Mali last longer or strengthen its position if you had some sort of early alt-colonization scenario in which Mali got looped into the new intercontinental trade network early and got access to the New World crop package. One of the big problems in Mali is that the local crop package isn't so hot. If they can get access to someone with New World stuff, they can add staple crops like maize, cassava and to some extent amaranth and chili and bell peppers, on top of luxury crops like the cacao bean and various New World nuts.

I love the idea of Mali building a Sahelian empire on a foundation of cassava so much that I might just use it myself.
 
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I wonder what they'd look like to be fair. I sadly can't find anything atm on Abu Bakr IIs fleet, but I don't think it is unreasonable (since others copies the ship designs at least initially) that they'd be heavily influenced if the Europeans are the ones who instigate any interaction.

Their ship designs might resemble some cross between Arab and Iberian influences, producing something which would be 100% African.
 
The alleged Abubakari II fleet should not be taken without a huge grain of salt. Even in the time of Mansa Musa, the Manden state did not have much by way of port infrastructure, much less oceangoing ships. There are hurdles which prevent any *Mali from expanding south into the Bight of Benin and getting a coast (namely, you have to contend with the tsetse). While they did have nominal control over what is now Senegal and there was known to be a trading settlement on what is now the river site called Morfil, it's pretty unlikely that those were oceangoing ports. The settlements in that area were geared towards land-based trade routes and trade of goods through the caravans of the veiled Sanhaja who controlled the Saharan crossings.

The Mandinka were certainly accomplished navigators of rivers and knew how to build pirogues. But you're not going to cross the Atlantic in a pirogue. You'd need a POD well before Sundiata Keita to get something like this, at least in order to have a Mali which both a) has more of a diverse commercial presence in Senegal and b) has more obstacles to the land route.



Theoretically you could see a Mali last longer or strengthen its position if you had some sort of early alt-colonization scenario in which Mali got looped into the new intercontinental trade network early and got access to the New World crop package. One of the big problems in Mali is that the local crop package isn't so hot. If they can get access to someone with New World stuff, they can add staple crops like maize, cassava and to some extent amaranth and chili and bell peppers, on top of luxury crops like the cacao bean and various New World nuts.

I love the idea of Mali building a Sahelian empire on a foundation of cassava so much that I might just use it myself.

Agreed, while it is theoritically possible Malian kings commissioned ship building with Arab consultants there is simply no evidence the region built anything but large dug out canoes. Ship building was complex and was the equivalent of building a national aircraft industry today. Had Abu Bakari invested in such an establishment it would be unlikely to have disappeared without a trace.

There are many theories about Abu Bakari’s voyage. One of the more interesting I’ve heard was his fleet of canoes followed the coastline east, and discovered the Niger river estuary. The legend said earlier voyages came across a river in the middle of the ocean and this would make the most sense. Another possiiblity is his successor Mansa Musa made the story up to justify his usurping the throne; that his predecessor had gone insane and abandoned the empire. Then there is the strange phenomenon of at leat three west African kings (including two Malian) who died mysteriously crossing rivers. It almost seems like a standard cover story for secretive royal deaths.
 
The only way for the Mali do not get destroyed by the soghani or some other citystate is for them to destroy the de centralized nature of it and the power of the city like Timbuktu
 
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