Malaya What If

[Sekhmet_D]

Let's set up a scenario like Matapan, with the Japanese in place of the Italians...

Would the Japanese be so quick to engage such a battleship-heavy force without a single battleship of their own amongst their ranks? I have a hard time picturing any Japanese commander (barring Raizo Tanaka or Tameichi Hara) showing this sort of David-versus-Goliath aggressiveness, even with the cover of night, superior optics and Long Lance torpedoes on his side.

 

[Bookeater]

It'll be very interesting if The Philippines falls, but the rest of the Japanese expansion efforts not only fall flat, but vastly overextend the scarce resources the Japanese retain. You can be here Singapore will also have a fearsome submarine force which will do even more damage to the Japanese Merchant Navy because they'll have torpedoes that actually work!

 

[Butchpfd]

^^^ From what little I know of the Philippine force then, is that the Philippine Scouts were well trained and individually armed to standard. The artillery and other supporting units were anemic by 1941 standards. The Constabulary forces needed much more training and ample modern equipment - even some of the ammunition was suspect after being stored for too long in hot humid conditions. Still, the Constabulary forces proved pretty game fighters after the Japanese invasion

Buthpfd certainly can add considerably more

The reliable ground forces in the PI were just enough to conduct War Plan Orange. The defense line was supposed to be approximately Subic to the East Coast of Bataan at Orani.
Plans were already to send 2 Battalions 192nd and 194th,of M3 Light tanks and a 17th Armored Ordanance Company of M-3 75mm Halftracks which arrived in the fall of 1941. Note: fate forced the 26th Cavalry Mounted, to ad hock brigade with the armored units. There are photos of the M-3s and 26th Cavalry(Mounted) on the field of battle.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

It'll be very interesting if The Philippines falls, but the rest of the Japanese expansion efforts not only fall flat, but vastly overextend the scarce resources the Japanese retain.

What might be even more interesting is if MacArthur ends up being sacked following this development. Who would replace him, and would the Philippines be bypassed as a result during the subsequent American resurgence?

 

[Driftless]

Even if they eventually succumb, if Malaya and Singapore hold out much longer than the PI, where would that have left MacArthur in the Allied hierarchy going into late '42-early '43? Gort and company would look like the competent warriors and Mac just might not look so good in comparison. Part of putting Mac in charge of the SW Pacific was for US political purpose, but with a better defense of Malaya, Singapore, and Burma, then the British leadership would definitely have the cachet over Mac (IMO). I can't imagine Mac sitting still for operating under the theater command of Lord Gort, or would it have been Wavell? Walter Kruger would still have been a great choice for the top US Army field commander.

The US gets it's leadership role opportunity with Operation Torch, late in the year, with Ike and eventually Patton in overall command of the western bookend and Alexander & Monty running the eastern operations.

^^^ninjaed - kinda

 

[Butchpfd]

My biggest critique of the mobilisation of the Philippines army was that 10 militia divisions were stood up but only 1 Regiment in each case which was barely trained and equipped by Dec 41.

Each of the 10 got a 2nd Regiment literally on the eve of the Japanese so zero training etc and officially gained a 3rd during the campaign (of what utility I cannot say)

Probably would have been better to have formed 4 full Divisions - 1 Regular division (1 US Army/US Marine Regiment and 2 Regular PH ones) and 3 Militia Divisions (9 odd PH militia Regiments) and then split them into 6 and then 9 as more forces were stood up

It would also have been useful to have proper support and training facilities for the 2 Tank Battalions that arrived

194th and 192nd Tank Battalions (activated national guard many of whom had first seen their tanks as they were loaded on the ships) with 108 M3 Stuarts between them plus a number of Half tracks

When they first went into battle the tank Battalion could not get any fuel so siphoned enough fuel to send a single platoon into action and said Platoon found problems with their guns as they had not had an opportunity to fire them due to lack of facilities and support etc with the Platoon commanders (Lieutenant Ben R. Morin) tank test firing its 37mm and rendering it u/s as it failed to return to battery.

I do not know how these issue get properly addressed but it was clear that not enough was done prior to Dec 7 and this may be out of scope for this TL?

4th Marines could not have been formed into a mixed Division since the only arrived the last week of November. The Cavite and Olopongo Independent Marine battalions were mixed infantry and AAA units, as well as the 3 USMC radar units assigned to Hart. Sadly Mac Arthur was made Overall Commander of US forces Far East. He took Hart's search radar based at Cavite and moved it 100km south. It left Hart with 2 fire control radars which were useless without their search radar, until targets were visually sighted. Eventually the search radar and one of the director units made it to Bataan . See USMC History of Phillipine Campaign.

 

[Butchpfd]

It'll be very interesting if The Philippines falls, but the rest of the Japanese expansion efforts not only fall flat, but vastly overextend the scarce resources the Japanese retain. You can be here Singapore will also have a fearsome submarine force which will do even more damage to the Japanese Merchant Navy because they'll have torpedoes that actually work!

If Singapore holds Hart will move his Subs there rather then Western Australia.

 

[Belisarius II]

Would the Japanese be so quick to engage such a battleship-heavy force without a single battleship of their own amongst their ranks? I have a hard time picturing any Japanese commander (barring Raizo Tanaka or Tameichi Hara) showing this sort of David-versus-Goliath aggressiveness, even with the cover of night, superior optics and Long Lance torpedoes on his side.

Good question. Yes, I think they would. In this situation the Japanese had a heavy cruiser damaged, and unless they wanted to abandon it, they needed to fight. On paper the odds seemed heavily stacked against them, but that's only in terms of gun power. The Battleships were slow, and their gun fire range advantage was limited at night. Even with radar they couldn't shoot any further than they could see, though still 15" shells hit much harder than 8" shells do. The Japanese had a high degree of confidence in their night doctrine, optics, torpedoes, and training. They thought their optics would let them see and shoot further than the British. Seeing the British first they thought would enable them to outmaneuver them.

Remember war is about taking calculated risks, and I think this would be a good bet. This was an opportunity to inflict disproportional damage on the enemy. Risking cruisers to take out battleships sounds good to me. Let me add this. I had the IJN Cruisers stand in line shooting it out with RN Battleships for 5 minutes because they wanted the British to stay in line until the torpedoes could hit. After that it was time to run off into the darkness. "Hello darkness my old friend."

 

[Belisarius II]

What might be even more interesting is if MacArthur ends up being sacked following this development. Who would replace him, and would the Philippines be bypassed as a result during the subsequent American resurgence?

MacArthur was a sacred cow; FDR was never going to sack him. That would cause a political blood bath he didn't want to deal with, especially at the beginning of a long hard war.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

Good question. Yes, I think they would.

If you ever incorporate this scenario into a timeline of its own somewhere down the track, have Tanaka be the victorious Japanese commander. He is the only flag ranked IJN officer whom I can envision taking this sort of calculated risk, and a torpedo expert to boot.

 

[Driftless]

MacArthur was a sacred cow; FDR was never going to sack him. That would cause a political blood bath he didn't want to deal with, especially at the beginning of a long hard war.

Maybe not sacked, but if Gort and company hold Malaya, Singapore, and Burma after Macs extraction and thr fall of Bataan, Mac isn't going to be viewed as the hero of OTL.

Could he accept a secondary command role?

 

[Belisarius II]

Maybe not sacked, but if Gort and company hold Malaya, Singapore, and Burma after Macs extraction and thr fall of Bataan, Mac isn't going to be viewed as the hero of OTL.

Could he accept a secondary command role?

I wouldn't matter. McArthur would still be an American hero, and the Allied Commander for the SW Pacific would have to be an American. We have to see where this TL leads, but it very hard for me to conceive of Malaya holding out with everything around it being held by the Japanese, or the Commonwealth forces defeating the Japanese in Burma.

 

[Aber]

So maybe he was good at recognising talent, managing personalities and getting on with people, rather than being a great battlefield general?

Yes, and remaining calm.

However it was recognised that he needed a good Chief of Staff or subordinates to be effective.

He did better than OK at Dunkirk

Agreed, but the key point for me is that it was Montgomery who went to Brooke and told him that Barker was not up to it, and needed to be replaced by Alexander.

 

[Belisarius II]

kYes, and remaining calm.

However it was recognised that he needed a good Chief of Staff or subordinates to be effective.

Agreed, but the key point for me is that it was Montgomery who went to Brooke and told him that Barker was not up to it, and needed to be replaced by Alexander.

Of course, Monty was a Brooke protégé, so it was easier for him to go to Brooke with a personnel issue. It would be like Eisenhower going to Marshall.

 

[Fatboy Coxy]

I had to think on that reference for a few seconds, then I did laugh out loud!

Here's the boys in action

And Bing crooning "I'm so afraid of night 'cause I'm too romantic" (you have to switch the sound icon on)

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1502521186850964

 

[Fatboy Coxy]

Would the Japanese be so quick to engage such a battleship-heavy force without a single battleship of their own amongst their ranks? I have a hard time picturing any Japanese commander (barring Raizo Tanaka or Tameichi Hara) showing this sort of David-versus-Goliath aggressiveness, even with the cover of night, superior optics and Long Lance torpedoes on his side.

Hi Sekhmet_D: to my mind that fits in very well with the IJN doctrine of Kantai Kessen,

Kantai Kessen - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

See last paragraph under Japanese planning

 

[Sekhmet_D]

Hi Sekhmet_D: to my mind that fits in very well with the IJN doctrine of Kantai Kessen,

Kantai Kessen - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

See last paragraph under Japanese planning

And yet, during the one battle IOTL (Second Naval Guadalcanal) where a golden opportunity presented itself for the IJN cruiser and destroyer force to cripple the big US Navy battlewagons with their formidable torpedoes... nothing of the sort was done.

 

[Belisarius II]

If Singapore holds Hart will move his Subs there rather then Western Australia.

He still going to base them in Australia. Singapore would be subjected to regular bombing and would have impossible supply problems. Everything going to Singapore would first have to run a blockade. Geography gives you only a few entrances into the South China Sea. The Straits of Malacca, the Sunda Straits, the Lombok Straits, or around the East end of Timor into the Banda Sea and the Japanese had them blocked. Submarines could go there but not supply ships. That's why no relief could ever get to the Philippines. It's just not a realistic idea.

 

[Wolf of Badenoch]

3( Faulty Depth Control, Faulty Magnetic Detonator, Faulty contact Firing Pin), MK XIV Torpedo.

I've been reading a lot of WWII US submarine-focussed fiction recently and there appears to be a universal agreement that there were significant problems with these warhead firing mechanisms which BuOrd was well aware of. Is this true and if so, can anyone explain why it took so long to rectify the problem?

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Hi Cryhavoc101, I think MacArthur's mobilisation plan was beaten to the punch by the Japanese assault, I think all major mobilisations have to be done in stages, so I wouldn't criticise that.

The Philippine Division with the American 31st Infantry Regt, was a square division, but it lacked brigade structures and was converted to a three regt division. There was a plan to swap one of the Philippine scout regts in the division with the US 34th Infantry Regt, the scouts to be used to back fill other Philippine units. The 34th were scheduled to sail from the USA on the 8th of December, I believe.


I'm not planning on addressing any issues in the Philippines, its not my field, so to speak, and the TL isn't about them. I'll leave it as historically was, until my ripples reach it, if they do, and then worry 😱

British and US Mobilisations was to build a full unit (be it Battalion Brigade Division etc) and then a year to 18 months later split it into 2 units and fill up the gaps with recruits, promoted officers and promoted NCOs - continue training rinse and repeat

The British did this with the 13 TA Divisions - doubling them to 26 in or about 1939

Early war the problem with that was that units trained to a certain standard and then were effectively decimated

So perhaps I am being harsh but I would have preferred that the PH army follow the above method but anyway not that important to this TL