In this timeline the Japanese don't get the airfields at Singora and Patani. They are 200 miles further away. That changes the situation.
Since the British don't look like they're going to capture ether Songkhla or Pattani the Japanese will be able to use those airfields. in a few days IJAAF units will be in easy range of northern Malayan airfields. They can also bomb Phuket with no trouble. One good thing about Japanese aircraft is they have long legs.
 

Fatboy Coxy

Monthly Donor
Since the British don't look like they're going to capture ether Songkhla or Pattani the Japanese will be able to use those airfields. in a few days IJAAF units will be in easy range of northern Malayan airfields. They can also bomb Phuket with no trouble. One good thing about Japanese aircraft is they have long legs.
Hi Belisarius II, I feel your struggling to keep up with all that's happening in this TL, the Japanese cancelled their planned landings at Songkhla and Pattani, see https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/malaya-what-if.521982/post-25213857
 
Some further thoughts on the railway bridges being attacked.

By noon it will be clear in Bangkok what has happened, but not why. What happens after that gets complicated.

Does the Thai air force get asked to fly standing patrols, in theory to intercept further attacks, but also to reassure the population.

The Thai army (as a minimum) gets put on alert, but will probably not be fully mobilised until the following morning; the exact orders will be interesting, will there be a curfew; what will the public be told and when?

The British ambassador will be summoned (if he can be found) and dressed down; he will ask for time to consult with London and point out not unreasonably that early on a Sunday morning is not a great time to get hold of senior decision makers, and ask to come back later with a formal response.

I suspect that 7 September will have a lot of updates as things develop, and we'll need to watch timestamps on posts carefully.

EDIT:
Repairing railway bridges, especially steel girder ones is a complex engineering task more likely to take months rather than days, especially if you have to allow for further air attacks.

Restoring a railway service is much quicker, if you have sufficient rolling stock in all the disconnected sections. Then it is a matter of unloading and reloading trains, and getting the loads across the river; first ferries, then light bridges, then light bridges with motor vehicles. It will take longer, especially in a war zone, but some service can be restored in days.
 
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Some further thoughts on the railway bridges being attacked.

By noon it will be clear in Bangkok what has happened, but not why. What happens after that gets complicated.

Does the Thai air force get asked to fly standing patrols, in theory to intercept further attacks, but also to reassure the population.

The Thai army (as a minimum) gets put on alert, but will probably not be fully mobilised until the following morning; the exact orders will be interesting, will there be a curfew; what will the public be told and when?

The British ambassador will be summoned (if he can be found) and dressed down; he will ask for time to consult with London and point out not unreasonably that early on a Sunday morning is not a great time to get hold of senior decision makers, and ask to come back later with a formal response.

I suspect that 7 September will have a lot of updates as things develop, and we'll need to watch timestamps on posts carefully.
Think 7 September will be fine , 7 December , not so much :)
 
Hi Belisarius II, I feel your struggling to keep up with all that's happening in this TL, the Japanese cancelled their planned landings at Songkhla and Pattani, see https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/malaya-what-if.521982/post-25213857
I'm well aware of what happened. The British blow-up the Ledge so, they can't take the road up to Pattani since that was the whole point of stopping the Japanese from coming down the road, and the British are nowhere near Songkhla. So, what will stop the Japanese from landing aircraft on the airfields at Songkhla & Pattani in a few days and using those ports? Not landing there on December 8th doesn't preclude them from landing there a few days later.
 

Fatboy Coxy

Monthly Donor
OK I have a few of my knowledgeable contributors questioning whether the RAF were in receipt of any report on the A6M performance before December 1941. My source is not the actual report unfortunately but comes from at least a couple of books.

Bloody Shambles Vol 1, page 40, "Chiang Kai-shek's air advisor, Col Claire Chennault, late of the USAAC, had already raised warnings following reports from the Chinese of the quality and performance of these superb fighter aircraft; close inspection had been possible when, on 20 May 1941, Pty Off Kimura of the 12th Kokutai was shot down by AA during a strafing attack on Taipingssu and Shuanglin airfields near Chengtu, the first of these aircraft to be lost in action.

Details of its armament and tankage reached Singapore and were passed to both Air Headquarters and to the Air Ministry. Later the British Air Attache in Chunking forwarded estimated performance figures, which proved to be reasonably accurate. In September the Combined Intelligence Bureau transmitted this data to the same two recipients, but at Air HQ Far East, lack of intelligence staff resulted in this data failing to be extracted from a mass of general intelligence information.
"

Bloody Shambles doesn't provide individual source references, but is extremely well researched and highly though of for its accuracy.

The other book I have to quote from is The Defence and Fall of Singapore 1940-1942 by Brian P Farrell, an Australian author and professor of Military History based in Singapore. The quote from his book is on page 145, "Reports received in Singapore in May and September, based on tests of Zeros captured in China, gave clear warning of its impressive performance.......... And Brooke-Popham identified the Zero as the weapon to watch for for any indication of a Japanese attack."

Again Farrell also provides general lists by paragraph of his sources, so it's not immediately obvious what the source is, but he again is quite meticulous in his output.

I may have some more, but am not at home with my books, if I can identify the original source I will.
Hi all, further to the A6M details source

Peter Elphick's book, The Far Eastern File, The Intelligence War in the Far East 1930-1945, mentions the failure of the RAF to digest the A6M's information on page 167, and provides a source, Arthur J Marder 'Old Friends, New Enemies', Part 1, OUP, Oxford , 1981, page 308. Elphick's work shows a lot of research has been undertaken, packed with great detail, but this book was written in 1997, and I believe more information has been released since.

Then we move to another very good author, Andrew Boyd, who's book, 'The Royal Navy In Eastern Waters, Linchpin of Victory 1935-1942' is again well researched. On page 228 he mentions the criticism directed to British military leaders over their lack of knowledge of the A6M's performance, when it was available, and provides the best and probably the definitive source, 'Performance Tables, Japanese Army and Naval Services, circulated by the Air Ministry 20 May 1941, AIR 40/241 (held at the National Archives) specifications and performance data were correct including a possible endurance of 6-8 hours.

Now all this data pertains to the A6M naval fighter, there is no mention of the Ki-43 who appearance wasn't noticed until the fighting had begun. However its performance was similar, and in studying how you would fight these aircraft, much like the A5M/Ki-27 generation before, it would not be in a turning fight. If Park had sight of that data, I believe he would have instructed his pilots on the need to avoid those types of combat, and using a height advantage, zoom.

Of course, as Belisarius II quite rightly beats his drum about, you have to have the height first. And on that note I'll leave it there to avoid any spoilers.
 
Some further thoughts on the railway bridges being attacked.

By noon it will be clear in Bangkok what has happened, but not why. What happens after that gets complicated.

Does the Thai air force get asked to fly standing patrols, in theory to intercept further attacks, but also to reassure the population.

The Thai army (as a minimum) gets put on alert, but will probably not be fully mobilised until the following morning; the exact orders will be interesting, will there be a curfew; what will the public be told and when?

The British ambassador will be summoned (if he can be found) and dressed down; he will ask for time to consult with London and point out not unreasonably that early on a Sunday morning is not a great time to get hold of senior decision makers, and ask to come back later with a formal response.

I suspect that 7 September will have a lot of updates as things develop, and we'll need to watch timestamps on posts carefully.
What will happen by the afternoon is the British will be burning their code books & files and destroying their coding machines. Thai troops will enter the embassy searching for secret materials. All British diplomatic Personell will be under house arrest in the embassy till they can be exchanged. All British subjects will be arrested and put in jail till detention camps can be set up for them and held there for the duration of the war. It won't be a good day to be walking around with a British passport.

Do you think the Thais will be wasting time playing stupid games with the British Ambassador? "I'm sure it's some misunderstanding, but your excellency must be patient. You must understand it's a Sunday, and I can't find anyone in authority in London who knows anything about this. Let me contact someone in the Foreign Ministry at 9:00 Am Monday morning GMT, and I'll have some official information for you a few hours later. Your excellency must understand all this is probable a Japanese rumor to justify an act of aggression against your country."

Sure, the Thai government will broadcast that the British have attacked the country, and now they have an alliance with the Japanese. Mobilization would be ordered, with men to report to their units first thing in the morning. The air force would be ordered to take all means necessary to defend the country including whatever air alert system they had. IJAAF units in Indochina will start flying into Thai airfields on the morning of December 8th.
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
Hi Ramp-Rat, thank you for this, it helps me keep a focus on the weather, which as you quite rightly say will have a significant impact on the fighting, but I don't expect it to stop the land campaign, just slow it down. One small point, I haven't fielded any 1,000lb bombs, the 500lb being the largest present in the Far East, and they are in limited supply (don't you know there's a war on!). Also I don't think any of the aircraft in the Far East can carry a 1,000lb bomb, maybe a Wellington might if I can get them there, but I'm not sure if that was by a latter Mk aircraft or one current to out TL.

My apologies sir, I should have paid more attention to your post, on the question of what ordinance various aircraft could carry. The Wellington could and did in Europe carry the 4000 lb cookie, as could surprise surprise the Mosquito, and it goes without saying both the Halifax and Lancaster too. The aircraft that was very restricted in its ability to carry large bombs was the Sterling, which had the potential to be a great aircraft, but unfortunately due to some questionable design decisions made at the insistence of the men from the ministry. While useful was never the success that it could have been, and was very much relegated to secondary roles by 43, as a transport which it had been designed for, and as a glider tug. One of the great ‘what ifs,’ is had the Sterling been produced in what was proposed as the Supper Sterling, mostly increased wing span and more powerful engines, it would have been a great success outside of Europe, as it was designed to be in the old tradition a bomber/transport.

RR.
 
Do you think the Thais will be wasting time playing stupid games with the British Ambassador?
Bluntly, yes.

In real life the "fog of war" is real, especially for an attack out of the blue; the major issue is not the facts of what has happened but the rumours about things that have not actually happened. Committing to a war against a global empire is not a spur of the moment decision - look at the confusion in the Soviet Union when the Germans attacked them. There will be time needed to gather decision makers, brief them, convince them it is real and decide options. Call in Ambassadors from key countries to clarify their positions. Then start making decisions.
 
I think it is because he is too busy criticising your work in every post he makes.
Now now - he is doing a very good job of keeping us honest!

He has made some very good points IMO but I think FB C has made a very good TL to date which has already started to answer many of those points - the big issue is how does the IJN/A respond?

That is always the hard part for a POD driven story like this.
 
Cryhavoc101, I know but the Japanese hasn’t even attacked yet, and Fatboy Coxy has spent 2 1/2 years building the background to the idea of his thread. I much prefer Ramp Rats detailed essays highlighting his ideas and problems to constant “all this 2 1/2 years of work doesn’t matter because Japan will win anyway.”

I consider this is currently the best timeline on the site at the moment, and one of the best in the 20 years I have been a member.
 
Hi Ramp-Rat, thank you for this, it helps me keep a focus on the weather, which as you quite rightly say will have a significant impact on the fighting, but I don't expect it to stop the land campaign, just slow it down. One small point, I haven't fielded any 1,000lb bombs, the 500lb being the largest present in the Far East, and they are in limited supply (don't you know there's a war on!). Also I don't think any of the aircraft in the Far East can carry a 1,000lb bomb, maybe a Wellington might if I can get them there, but I'm not sure if that was by a latter Mk aircraft or one current to out TL.
As far as I have seen, from what you list, the only plane capable of carrying g a 1,000 bomb is the PBY-5, which could carry up to 2,000 lbs, with a long take off, and a top speed of 100mph. And that will put a dent in range.
 
Hi Ramp-Rat, thank you for this, it helps me keep a focus on the weather, which as you quite rightly say will have a significant impact on the fighting, but I don't expect it to stop the land campaign, just slow it down. One small point, I haven't fielded any 1,000lb bombs, the 500lb being the largest present in the Far East, and they are in limited supply (don't you know there's a war on!). Also I don't think any of the aircraft in the Far East can carry a 1,000lb bomb, maybe a Wellington might if I can get them there, but I'm not sure if that was by a latter Mk aircraft or one current to out TL.
What about the Lockheed Hudson?
 
Hi Logan, reinforcements, well that would be telling.... Tut tut for asking, but as my old mum use to say "You don't get anything without asking"

What reinforcements would you suggest are available?
hey @Fatboy Coxy sorry haven't respond, the weather here in Colombia is crazy right now. I will post the reinforcements that I think would arrive at Singapore, Burma, and Sumatra (yes reinforcements for Dutch East Indies).

Just a quick question I have, the F2 buffalos that were station OTL, in TTL where are they at this moment? (I think 82 or 84 F2 buffalos fighters were at Singapore in OTL.)
 
Bluntly, yes.

In real life the "fog of war" is real, especially for an attack out of the blue; the major issue is not the facts of what has happened but the rumours about things that have not actually happened. Committing to a war against a global empire is not a spur of the moment decision - look at the confusion in the Soviet Union when the Germans attacked them. There will be time needed to gather decision makers, brief them, convince them it is real and decide options. Call in Ambassadors from key countries to clarify their positions. Then start making decisions.
Just asking but do you know that railroad lines have stations and watering stops with telegraph lines up and down the line. So, do you think no one saw those Battle's flying in and then circling around while they bombed a bridge, and no one sent a wire? No police or military units got off a telegraph, radio, or telephone message to anyone. Comparing this to Barbarossa is a poor analogy. Everyone knew they were being attacked along a massive front, it was the surprise and scale of the attack that led to mass confusion. The Thais would know they were being attacked do you really think the military government of the country would be listening to a diplomat telling them it isn't happening?
 
Just asking but do you know that railroad lines have stations and watering stops with telegraph lines up and down the line. So, do you think no one saw those Battle's flying in and then circling around while they bombed a bridge, and no one sent a wire? No police or military units got off a telegraph, radio, or telephone message to anyone. Comparing this to Barbarossa is a poor analogy. Everyone knew they were being attacked along a massive front, it was the surprise and scale of the attack that led to mass confusion. The Thais would know they were being attacked do you really think the military government of the country would be listening to a diplomat telling them it isn't happening?
Well in OTL it was the Japanese who attacked and the Thai government took roughly 8 to 10 hours before they agreed to Japanese terms and ordered a cease to resistance. I would remind you those terms were delivered while the attack was ongoing so fair to say he was negotiating at the barrel of a gun and he still didnt cave right away. So let's just say that it's fair to use that time frame before they join the Japanese. Although since Philbun had been playing the two against each other I would say add another 24 hours till he gets an idea who he thinks is winning but that's up to the author.
 
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