Rome! Rome! Rome!
Also, I have to say, I love all the photography and artwork you find to accompany your updates.
For the record, the "fireworks over the Colosseum" photo is a 2012 picture that I doctored.
I think this will really cement FAR at the Catholic alliance with some handwaving at Russia which could cause fun in Ireland. Also expect problems with Italian conservatives and Spanish anti-clerical types being very angry at being dragged into a war for the benefit of the Pope. Catalonia won't be pretty...
About Spain, Catalonia was not much different from the rest of Spain, except for a bigger presence of the trade unions (at this time) so it should not be too different. However there had always been a very anti-clerical element among the Spanish liberals (left-wing), democrats (far-left) and a very clerical posture by "moderate liberals" (aka conservatives). Expect that with the arrival of the Pope, the political infighting in Madrid is going to get very nasty.
But since TTL Spain is more liberal it probably means it's less Catholic due to there being no restoration of the Church's social position during the Restauración borbónica, but still, this will only make political instability bigger.
Wonderful development for la madre patria ahead.
I don't see the Spanish jumping into the war just because they gave refuge to the Pope, nor even out of revenge for the insult to the Papacy nor at the Pope's urging. Loyalty to Mother Church is one thing; sticking their head on the chopping block is another.
Yeah, neutrality is definitely the wise thing to do for Spain. But there could be a lot of pressure to do stupid things.
Shevek23 is correct; the smart thing for Spain to do would be to stay neutral. The ruling party wants to stay out of the war, and in fact, even
France would rather that Spain stay out - as long as Spain is neutral, France can trade through its ports, but once it becomes a belligerent, all that is gone. The more pragmatic elements in the French government and even the French army would rather have Spain as a friendly neutral power and a supplier of volunteer soldiers (possibly in the form of a "Papal legion") than as a nominal ally.
But as Falecius says, there will also be a lot of pressure to do stupid things, not so much from the Pope himself (who will be scathing toward Italy and the BOGs, but will stop short of calling for a crusade) as from the pro-clerical parties and some of the hotheaded lower church hierarchy. If the moderate liberals are pro-clerical as Nanwe points out, then there may even be dissension within the ruling coalition. Spain may or may not enter the war, but at minimum, there will be some very nasty infighting within the government and the larger society.
And yes, even though the anti-clerical factions dominate Italian politics, their hegemony is far from universal, and there will be some conservatives who are not at all happy about attacking the Pope (although other, more nationalist right-wingers won't care).
Italy's in a terrible position, but with the Ottomans apparently holding against the French and the British in a position to resupply them from Egypt, they should be able to hold out quite well from the Alps.
Italy is fighting on the defensive here (as opposed to OTL in WWI, where we were supposed to be fighting on the offensive, with very very little success at that) and the terrain is excellent for defensive trench warfare, as Austrian performance IOTL sort of proves. Probably Italy will have to give SOME ground, possibly to the Piave line (maximum Austrian advance in 1918 IOTL) or even the Adige (that would be a serious blow) in the East. But the conditions of FAR offensives in the Alps are going to be terrible. I expect soldiers on both sides starving or freezing in winters more than dying under enemy fire. (it happened OTL on the Italian front, only here there are TWO Italian fronts, probably both nastier).
Falecius, I'm not so sure. While I'll admit the Italian-Austrian border is perfect for defensive warfare for the Savoyards, the same cannot be said of the Italian-French one. Yes, it's certainly rocky, but it's not as bad.
I think the key here is that the French have many other priorities, and that overwhelming the North Germans and defending their colonies will take precedence over an alpine front in which the Italians are on the defensive. They may well be content to commit just enough troops to that front to keep the Italians from threatening Nice, and let the Austrians handle the bulk of the alpine fighting. If the FARs do succeed in knocking the North Germans out, of course, Italy might come in for much more attention.
Of course, this also means - as wolf_brother said - that Italy's entry into the war will relieve only a limited amount of pressure on the North Germans, and will probably distract the Austrians more than the French.
It seems like the French are having troubles keeping their colonies loyal; between the Italians in Tunisia and the apparently restive Algerians, the French could be in trouble if the war goes on long enough.
Is the offer to enlist in the Ottoman Army given only to Muslim French soldiers or extended to everyone? It seems that the Port is desperate for manpower.
For the time being, the offer is extended to the colonial soldiers, Muslim or not. If any Frenchmen want to join, the Ottomans will take them (and send them to a front as far away from France as possible), but they're not actively recruiting metropolitan French.
BTW, the Ottomans won't be the only ones doing this - I've been told off-list that Russia did the same thing with enemy minorities during OTL's First World War, and it will also do so in TTL, especially as the war drags on.
Also, some of the French colonies are more loyal than others - you'll notice that none of the Senegalese took the bait. Of course, at this point, Senegal isn't really a colony any more. The Senegalese, who are French citizens and largely masters in their own house, feel a strong bond to France; the Algerians, who've been pushed aside to make room for European settlers, not so much. The
tirailleurs from elsewhere in French West Africa, and from Vietnam, are of varying degrees of loyalty, depending on how they're treated.
Some French politicians will learn all the wrong lessons from this, but some may even learn the right ones.
1) I can't remember whether it has been raised before, but Venezuela, other tha claiming Roraima out of Parà, holds quite a grudge with Britain about Guyana Essequiba. It may appear a good moment to settle scores with French support. Brazil is probably willing to let other South American countries to get some peripheral pieces of Amazon if they hope to get the largest share of the pie. Venezuela is probably the most likely among South American countries to join the FAR wholesale. That would make the Caribbean a theatre, though a minor one.
Venezuela has already joined the Amazon land-grab party, and Brazil would certainly be willing to concede some border areas in return for its help - the question is whether the Venezuelans would risk the wrath of the Royal Navy and the considerable British troop presence in the region. Brazil and France will certainly court them.
3) It looks like Tunisia is towing Italian line. This makes sense with Italy being the paramount European power there and the Tunisian bey a theoretical vassal of the Ottomans. What's going on in Assab? I guess that tiny colony will be taken by either Russians or French before Ottoman forces in Yemen or British from Aden can do something about it, but if not, the Red Sea will be closed to the FAR.
Assab is doomed, at least for now - the Franco_Russians have overwhelming local superiority, and they recognize the importance of keeping the Red Sea open. The British and/or the Ottomans (probably the former) might try to retake it later in the war, depending on how things go.
Again about the Italian "sphere", what will Piratini do? Brazil is not firendly to them, but is also scaringly stronger, and allying with Argentina sounds awkward at the utmost. They might stay neutral while sending "volunteers" to fight for Italy, though sending significant fighting forces an ocean away is not very sensible when you have some wars involving your dangeours neighbors near your borders.
We'll see.
That sounds about right. Like most of the small powers, Piratini won't want to get too involved in the affairs of larger nations, because when the elephants fight, the grass is trampled. But in TTL, Piratini has sent volunteers to Italy during the Risorgimento, so many would want to make the journey on their own and join the Italian army. How the government reacts to this remains to be seen.
One of the clichès of Alternate History seems to be "if Italy wins a war, it will
never get what it hoped to get".
Almost nobody in this war will get everything it hoped to get.
With Russia and the Pope on sort of the same side, I wonder if this will help keep Poland quiet. Not that the Russians don't have plenty of other potential ethnic conflicts brewing...
Which part of Poland?
It doesn't really matter at this point, because the German part of Poland is behind Russian lines. It might become significant later, if the North Germans recover enough to go on the offensive.
The Pope's partisanship might incline the Poles more toward Russia than they would otherwise be, but the Russians could easily squander that with some ham-handed move. Certainly, not
all the Poles will be convinced, and there might be Poles fighting on both sides - and for that matter, any Polish battalions who fight for Russia will do so conditionally, and might be able to call upon Russia's Catholic allies to help in negotiating the terms.
Or, as imperialaquila says, the North Germans may be desperate enough to consider cutting off a hand in order to cost the Russians an arm.
Thanks to the
Turtledove voting thread where I read recommendations by posters I respect, I came here. And I am PLEASED to have done so. Rock on.
I'm very impressed with this TL. Earned my vote for a Turtledove.
Thanks, and please keep reading! FARs next, and then the big picture.