Malê Rising

The Western Alps are a quite unwelcoming terrain for both sides.
On the naval side, you are surely right. Regia Marina is likely to be no match for the French Navy. The only factor that plays in Italian favor is that France is streched very thin at sea, which might prevent a total curbstomp. Also, France cannot focus on Italy with all her strength, in which case Italy is going to be crushed of course.
Walking along the coast is going to be a rough going for the French. I've been in that area, and the terrain is quite rugged and easily defensible, if you have a competently led determined military. More to the north, the main passes should be five or six, but there are some other minor routes that coul allow encirclement.
An horrible place to fight, really.

The Western Alps, as I said, are quite rocky - but they're nothing compared to the east and the Italian-Austrian border. The French had fought their way through those passes several times before throughout (recent) history, I'd be quite confused if they somehow, magically, couldn't once again.
 
We barely could defeat Austria-Hungary in OTL, and even then, the incompetence of our generals was staggering, we suffered heavy losses and we were almost defeated. Having to fight against France, too? Cazzo.

I kind of want to see the French cock up and get America involved in the war, just so we see the famous line, "Von Steuben, we are here!"
 
Italy against both France and Austria-Hungary?

We barely could defeat Austria-Hungary in OTL, and even then, the incompetence of our generals was staggering, we suffered heavy losses and we were almost defeated. Having to fight against France, too? Cazzo.

Not really, a defensive stance mean that this time is the A-H and the France who must bleed their men against easily defeansible position in a horrible terrain, and the situation of the army in general can greatly differ from OTL if this time there is at least less shortage of supply and someone just a little less dense of Cadorna...plus A-H the moment she lost the core cadre of NCO will have great diffult to substitute them

Falecius is right, though. As long as we'll wage defensive warfare, we should be relatively okay. And if we'll win, everything from Savoy to Dalmatia could be ours. Maybe. One of the clichès of Alternate History seems to be "if Italy wins a war, it will never get what it hoped to get". :D

Much depend on how this victory is achievied
 
The Western Alps, as I said, are quite rocky - but they're nothing compared to the east and the Italian-Austrian border. The French had fought their way through those passes several times before throughout (recent) history, I'd be quite confused if they somehow, magically, couldn't once again.

The last time was during the Revolutionary wars...and a lot of things are changed
 
The Western Alps, as I said, are quite rocky - but they're nothing compared to the east and the Italian-Austrian border. The French had fought their way through those passes several times before throughout (recent) history, I'd be quite confused if they somehow, magically, couldn't once again.

A lot depends on how much manpower France (and AH) can spare for a relatively secondary front (secondary only if compared to the Rhine, of course, but still).
The point is that Italy IMHO can hold, even if barely, provided that they play their cards right. However, unlike France, Italy cannot afford to make mistakes. AH is somewhere in the middle; she's fighting for its life (largely because if internal issues) but has some more breathing room than Italy, in the first stages at least.
To be sure, Italy is in a very rough spot, having to hope for the overall balance to shift in BOG favor, doing her part in bleeding herself white to tie down some French and Austrian troops. I expect a monstrous butcher's bill in the Alps, likely somewhere in the million deaths range or so. Which, by the way, could cause eny sort of ugliness post-war.
And outright collapse and revolution during the war, while not very likely IMVHO, is in the cards.
If the French take Turin and Genua, and the Austrians take Venice, well, Italy would be in a markedly bad shape, with most of its industrial regions immediately threatened or already lost.
And the combined Austrian and French navies are surely way stronger overall than anything the Regia Marina can manage to field. A blockade of Italy is unlikely (blockading Austria will be easier) but vital supplies by sea can be seriously threatened.
I wouldn't want to be an Italian of my age at this point of this TL.
 
With Russia and the Pope on sort of the same side, I wonder if this will help keep Poland quiet. Not that the Russians don't have plenty of other potential ethnic conflicts brewing...
 
The last time was during the Revolutionary wars...and a lot of things are changed

And in 1848.


Oh agreed, Italy will certainly hold down some Franco-Austrian forces that could have been allocated elsewhere. But we're talking about pocket change in the grand scheme of things, and that's my point; the Italian front is going to be a relatively small one in the war IMHO, unless the Savoyards try for something extremely crazy - going on the offense against France.

I guess my overall point here is that Italy is a third-rank power at best that just decided to pick a fight with the continental hegemon, and Austria. I'd rank Italy alongside Brazil or Egypt in terms of what it'll actually contribute to the war effort, for either side. I don't see the events in Rome changing, at a fundemental level, how things will play out on the Rhine-Danube-Oder front.
 
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The poor Poles; siding with either alliance will be like making a deal with the devil.

Given that the vast majority of the Poles are ruled by Russia and Austria, I suspect most Polish nationalists are going to be going to the BOGIs, especially North Germany, for aid. If the situation gets desperate enough, I could even see the Germans promising territorial concessions, such as Posen, to a postwar Polish state, to get the Poles on their side.
 
Rome! Rome! Rome! :D

Also, I have to say, I love all the photography and artwork you find to accompany your updates.

For the record, the "fireworks over the Colosseum" photo is a 2012 picture that I doctored.

I think this will really cement FAR at the Catholic alliance with some handwaving at Russia which could cause fun in Ireland. Also expect problems with Italian conservatives and Spanish anti-clerical types being very angry at being dragged into a war for the benefit of the Pope. Catalonia won't be pretty...

About Spain, Catalonia was not much different from the rest of Spain, except for a bigger presence of the trade unions (at this time) so it should not be too different. However there had always been a very anti-clerical element among the Spanish liberals (left-wing), democrats (far-left) and a very clerical posture by "moderate liberals" (aka conservatives). Expect that with the arrival of the Pope, the political infighting in Madrid is going to get very nasty.

But since TTL Spain is more liberal it probably means it's less Catholic due to there being no restoration of the Church's social position during the Restauración borbónica, but still, this will only make political instability bigger.

Wonderful development for la madre patria ahead.

I don't see the Spanish jumping into the war just because they gave refuge to the Pope, nor even out of revenge for the insult to the Papacy nor at the Pope's urging. Loyalty to Mother Church is one thing; sticking their head on the chopping block is another.

Yeah, neutrality is definitely the wise thing to do for Spain. But there could be a lot of pressure to do stupid things.

Shevek23 is correct; the smart thing for Spain to do would be to stay neutral. The ruling party wants to stay out of the war, and in fact, even France would rather that Spain stay out - as long as Spain is neutral, France can trade through its ports, but once it becomes a belligerent, all that is gone. The more pragmatic elements in the French government and even the French army would rather have Spain as a friendly neutral power and a supplier of volunteer soldiers (possibly in the form of a "Papal legion") than as a nominal ally.

But as Falecius says, there will also be a lot of pressure to do stupid things, not so much from the Pope himself (who will be scathing toward Italy and the BOGs, but will stop short of calling for a crusade) as from the pro-clerical parties and some of the hotheaded lower church hierarchy. If the moderate liberals are pro-clerical as Nanwe points out, then there may even be dissension within the ruling coalition. Spain may or may not enter the war, but at minimum, there will be some very nasty infighting within the government and the larger society.

And yes, even though the anti-clerical factions dominate Italian politics, their hegemony is far from universal, and there will be some conservatives who are not at all happy about attacking the Pope (although other, more nationalist right-wingers won't care).

Italy's in a terrible position, but with the Ottomans apparently holding against the French and the British in a position to resupply them from Egypt, they should be able to hold out quite well from the Alps.

Italy is fighting on the defensive here (as opposed to OTL in WWI, where we were supposed to be fighting on the offensive, with very very little success at that) and the terrain is excellent for defensive trench warfare, as Austrian performance IOTL sort of proves. Probably Italy will have to give SOME ground, possibly to the Piave line (maximum Austrian advance in 1918 IOTL) or even the Adige (that would be a serious blow) in the East. But the conditions of FAR offensives in the Alps are going to be terrible. I expect soldiers on both sides starving or freezing in winters more than dying under enemy fire. (it happened OTL on the Italian front, only here there are TWO Italian fronts, probably both nastier).

Falecius, I'm not so sure. While I'll admit the Italian-Austrian border is perfect for defensive warfare for the Savoyards, the same cannot be said of the Italian-French one. Yes, it's certainly rocky, but it's not as bad.

I think the key here is that the French have many other priorities, and that overwhelming the North Germans and defending their colonies will take precedence over an alpine front in which the Italians are on the defensive. They may well be content to commit just enough troops to that front to keep the Italians from threatening Nice, and let the Austrians handle the bulk of the alpine fighting. If the FARs do succeed in knocking the North Germans out, of course, Italy might come in for much more attention.

Of course, this also means - as wolf_brother said - that Italy's entry into the war will relieve only a limited amount of pressure on the North Germans, and will probably distract the Austrians more than the French.

It seems like the French are having troubles keeping their colonies loyal; between the Italians in Tunisia and the apparently restive Algerians, the French could be in trouble if the war goes on long enough.

Is the offer to enlist in the Ottoman Army given only to Muslim French soldiers or extended to everyone? It seems that the Port is desperate for manpower.

For the time being, the offer is extended to the colonial soldiers, Muslim or not. If any Frenchmen want to join, the Ottomans will take them (and send them to a front as far away from France as possible), but they're not actively recruiting metropolitan French.

BTW, the Ottomans won't be the only ones doing this - I've been told off-list that Russia did the same thing with enemy minorities during OTL's First World War, and it will also do so in TTL, especially as the war drags on.

Also, some of the French colonies are more loyal than others - you'll notice that none of the Senegalese took the bait. Of course, at this point, Senegal isn't really a colony any more. The Senegalese, who are French citizens and largely masters in their own house, feel a strong bond to France; the Algerians, who've been pushed aside to make room for European settlers, not so much. The tirailleurs from elsewhere in French West Africa, and from Vietnam, are of varying degrees of loyalty, depending on how they're treated.

Some French politicians will learn all the wrong lessons from this, but some may even learn the right ones.

1) I can't remember whether it has been raised before, but Venezuela, other tha claiming Roraima out of Parà, holds quite a grudge with Britain about Guyana Essequiba. It may appear a good moment to settle scores with French support. Brazil is probably willing to let other South American countries to get some peripheral pieces of Amazon if they hope to get the largest share of the pie. Venezuela is probably the most likely among South American countries to join the FAR wholesale. That would make the Caribbean a theatre, though a minor one.

Venezuela has already joined the Amazon land-grab party, and Brazil would certainly be willing to concede some border areas in return for its help - the question is whether the Venezuelans would risk the wrath of the Royal Navy and the considerable British troop presence in the region. Brazil and France will certainly court them.

3) It looks like Tunisia is towing Italian line. This makes sense with Italy being the paramount European power there and the Tunisian bey a theoretical vassal of the Ottomans. What's going on in Assab? I guess that tiny colony will be taken by either Russians or French before Ottoman forces in Yemen or British from Aden can do something about it, but if not, the Red Sea will be closed to the FAR.

Assab is doomed, at least for now - the Franco_Russians have overwhelming local superiority, and they recognize the importance of keeping the Red Sea open. The British and/or the Ottomans (probably the former) might try to retake it later in the war, depending on how things go.

Again about the Italian "sphere", what will Piratini do? Brazil is not firendly to them, but is also scaringly stronger, and allying with Argentina sounds awkward at the utmost. They might stay neutral while sending "volunteers" to fight for Italy, though sending significant fighting forces an ocean away is not very sensible when you have some wars involving your dangeours neighbors near your borders.
We'll see.

That sounds about right. Like most of the small powers, Piratini won't want to get too involved in the affairs of larger nations, because when the elephants fight, the grass is trampled. But in TTL, Piratini has sent volunteers to Italy during the Risorgimento, so many would want to make the journey on their own and join the Italian army. How the government reacts to this remains to be seen.

One of the clichès of Alternate History seems to be "if Italy wins a war, it will never get what it hoped to get". :D

Almost nobody in this war will get everything it hoped to get.

With Russia and the Pope on sort of the same side, I wonder if this will help keep Poland quiet. Not that the Russians don't have plenty of other potential ethnic conflicts brewing...

Which part of Poland? ;)

It doesn't really matter at this point, because the German part of Poland is behind Russian lines. It might become significant later, if the North Germans recover enough to go on the offensive.

The Pope's partisanship might incline the Poles more toward Russia than they would otherwise be, but the Russians could easily squander that with some ham-handed move. Certainly, not all the Poles will be convinced, and there might be Poles fighting on both sides - and for that matter, any Polish battalions who fight for Russia will do so conditionally, and might be able to call upon Russia's Catholic allies to help in negotiating the terms.

Or, as imperialaquila says, the North Germans may be desperate enough to consider cutting off a hand in order to cost the Russians an arm.

Thanks to the Turtledove voting thread where I read recommendations by posters I respect, I came here. And I am PLEASED to have done so. Rock on.

I'm very impressed with this TL. Earned my vote for a Turtledove.:D

Thanks, and please keep reading! FARs next, and then the big picture.
 
Shevek23 is correct; the smart thing for Spain to do would be to stay neutral. The ruling party wants to stay out of the war, and in fact, even France would rather that Spain stay out - as long as Spain is neutral, France can trade through its ports, but once it becomes a belligerent, all that is gone. The more pragmatic elements in the French government and even the French army would rather have Spain as a friendly neutral power and a supplier of volunteer soldiers (possibly in the form of a "Papal legion") than as a nominal ally.

But as Falecius says, there will also be a lot of pressure to do stupid things, not so much from the Pope himself (who will be scathing toward Italy and the BOGs, but will stop short of calling for a crusade) as from the pro-clerical parties and some of the hotheaded lower church hierarchy. If the moderate liberals are pro-clerical as Nanwe points out, then there may even be dissension within the ruling coalition. Spain may or may not enter the war, but at minimum, there will be some very nasty infighting within the government and the larger society.

Well 19th century Spain without constant conflict would not be 19th century Spain :p

What I could see is a repetition of the terrible labour conflicts that took place during WWI industrial boom OTL. Not only will there be a huge conflict in the political classes between clerical right and anti-clerical left, but I'd guess that the fight over universal suffrage will exist.

In case of labour conflicts, you might see things as brutal the 1917 general strike and the terrible and murderous conflicts between patrons and workers in Barcelona and other industrial centres where anarchists bombed the bourgeoisie's traditional meeting places (Opera bombed in 1893) while the capitalists hired mercenaries to kill trade union leaders (who were equally armed to the teeth) and so on.

EDIT: If the progressive liberals are in government during the Great War, they would very likely be led by (Práxedes Mateo) Sagasta.
 
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One thing I haven't seen touched on. This is a war to the knife, but, especially for Germany and Italy, it's a war of national liberation. Expect lots of shenigans in Austria-Hungary and russia, in an attempt to stir up minorities. The French and Russians will try this game as well, but I don't expect them to be as good at it...
 
One thing I haven't seen touched on. This is a war to the knife, but, especially for Germany and Italy, it's a war of national liberation. Expect lots of shenigans in Austria-Hungary and russia, in an attempt to stir up minorities. The French and Russians will try this game as well, but I don't expect them to be as good at it...

The Russians might have a more potent threat towards India, so that could very well be a huge impact, especially in the long run.
 
The Pope's partisanship might incline the Poles more toward Russia than they would otherwise be, but the Russians could easily squander that with some ham-handed move. Certainly, not all the Poles will be convinced [...]

Unless you've butterflied Papal reaction to Polish uprisings then Pope can support Russia all he wants and it won't do anything. Besides, the Church hierarchy in Poland may not be on the same page as Pope.

there might be Poles fighting on both sides - and for that matter, any Polish battalions who fight for Russia will do so conditionally, and might be able to call upon Russia's Catholic allies to help in negotiating the terms.

There will be Polish fighting on both sides, whether they like it or not. Conscription.
 
Well 19th century Spain without constant conflict would not be 19th century Spain :p

What I could see is a repetition of the terrible labour conflicts that took place during WWI industrial boom OTL. Not only will there be a huge conflict in the political classes between clerical right and anti-clerical left, but I'd guess that the fight over universal suffrage will exist.

There will probably be a similar industrial boom during TTL's Great War, because Spanish factories will be working overtime filling French orders for war materiel. So there could easily be discontent centered around the unions, especially if they see the right wing as trying to push the country into a war that they oppose. If that happens, then the debate over whether to enter the war could spiral into clashes over the larger social issues that separate the unions from the clerical right.

One thing I haven't seen touched on. This is a war to the knife, but, especially for Germany and Italy, it's a war of national liberation. Expect lots of shenigans in Austria-Hungary and russia, in an attempt to stir up minorities. The French and Russians will try this game as well, but I don't expect them to be as good at it...

Both sides will certainly be playing this game by the end of the war, once they realize that the losing side will be the first one whose political system breaks. I agree with you that Russia and Austria-Hungary are most vulnerable, but so is the Ottoman Empire - the FARs will see the Ottomans as the weak link in the enemy alliance, and will stir up the Ottomans' minorities at the same time that the Porte incites theirs. And the Irish question is always a possible flashpoint.

The Russians might have a more potent threat towards India, so that could very well be a huge impact, especially in the long run.

That will actually be a subplot. There will also be a Xenophon's Ten Thousand-type subplot that I've discussed off-list, and one involving the Pacific. All three will see their start during the second year of the war.

Unless you've butterflied Papal reaction to Polish uprisings then Pope can support Russia all he wants and it won't do anything. Besides, the Church hierarchy in Poland may not be on the same page as Pope

How did the Popes react to the 1830 and 1863 uprisings in OTL, if at all? And you're certainly correct that the local church hierarchy might support a Polish nationalist uprising even if the Pope doesn't.

Fair point about conscription. Both sides might also try to raise Polish volunteers, though.
 

iddt3

Donor
That will actually be a subplot. There will also be a Xenophon's Ten Thousand-type subplot that I've discussed off-list, and one involving the Pacific. All three will see their start during the second year of the war.
Oh god, Russia invading India. That's right up there with Sealion in terms of logistical issues.
 
Oh god, Russia invading India. That's right up there with Sealion in terms of logistical issues.

Invading India is certainly not going to work, but Russia can and will be in a better position to aid any Indian separatists and revolutionaries...much easier than Germany could OTL.
 
Oh god, Russia invading India. That's right up there with Sealion in terms of logistical issues.

Invading India is certainly not going to work, but Russia can and will be in a better position to aid any Indian separatists and revolutionaries...much easier than Germany could OTL.

What Trollhole said. The Russians won't invade India - getting through Afghanistan would be not only a logistical nightmare but a political one - but they can certainly stir up nationalist groups. The Congress has decided to cooperate with the British war effort in exchange for concessions now and later, but other revolutionaries will see Britain's distraction as an opportune moment to strike. This is where the back channels that the Raj and Congress have built with each other could become very important.
 
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