India ITTL certainly isn't shy. Could it assume the role of 'protector' of the OTL UAE ITTL?
I suspect ITTL India to have a lot of involvement in Oman and the rest of the ME when/if the UK settles on more European matters.
The Ottomans might be unhappy about it though.
It's a mere continuation of an age old thing. Anyway, Oman is a sovereign state, it associates with whom it wills. Of course, the UK probably won't have a "withdrawal from East of Suez moment" ITTL, or, if it does, it will probably be a lot more deliberate and well thought out.
As long as Madras remains a Dominion, and a presence is mantained in Malaya, Britain's eastward projection is likely to remain much more significant than IOTL, but also less overtly imperialistic.
Of course Oman will naturally have strong ties with India as it almost always has done. I can see the Ottomans trying to project influence over the entire Arabian Peninsula and associate other local states there to them, but of course Oman isn't necessarily going to adhere tu such a scheme, and association with India makes sense to them.
By the way, these aren't necessarily mutually exclusive options, especially in a post-Westphalian context.
Britain won't be retreating from the Indian Ocean anytime soon, if ever. By this time, the British Empire is no longer really an empire, but the commonwealth that eventually forms will be somewhat stronger than OTL, and the Malays, Sinhalese and Tamils will still look to London as a protector and key trading partner. Oman and the Trucial States may well decide to stay part of that network as a counterweight to the Ottoman Empire. On the other hand, as Falecius points out, that won't prevent India, or for that matter the Ottomans, from developing close relationships and having influence of their own. For that matter, Persia will probably want to cozy up to Bahrain. I expect that there will be several overlapping spheres in this region.
Another place where I can see a lot of Indian soft power exerted is the Geledi Sultanate.
Almost certainly. Kismayo under Indian sponsorship will be an economic magnet for the region, and Geledi will see a close relationship with India as a counterbalance to the power of Ethiopia and Zanzibar. I expect there will be a fair amount of two-way migration, and that Indian film and music will have considerable influence (as they did even in OTL in parts of East Africa).
Say, what are the Finns up to right now? Anything been done with the Aland Islands?
The Finns are doing fine - Finland is friendly with both Russia and Germany, it has prospered with light industry, agriculture and forestry, and it's a contented social democracy.
As mentioned in
post 3545, Åland is an autonomous county within the Finnish kingdom, with its own parliament and the king of Sweden as its count.
The Court of Arbitration has structure similar to the UNSC, although without veto power, the position of post-war Great Powers is considerably lessened. So, there has been a "freeze" ITTL, but much more symbolic.
True - the turn-of-the-20th-century Great Powers do have permanent seats, but without a veto, their advantage is limited to their voice always being heard. Also, it's always possible to expand the court's membership or create new permanent seats - this hasn't yet been done, but it's been discussed.
By the way, what are the changes in the Great Power hierarchy ITTL so far? Clearly British position ha worsened a lot since ca. 1900, courtesy of the Imperials, but is there any country that has risen to Great Power status since? China I suppose (you already stated India hasn't gone that far... yet)? And how much power differential is there among the Big Six (or Seven)? Germany must still be primus inter pares I suppose, but how much does it outweigh, say, France in terms of GDP? Is it in the process of being surpassed by the US?
At this point, China and Japan are generally acknowledged to have joined the great power club, and everyone agrees that it's only a matter of time for India. Brazil, Ethiopia and South Africa are still regional powers, and the latter two are probably too small for great-power status, but they have aspirations.
Germany's GDP has probably been surpassed by the United States already, due to the latter's greater population if nothing else. France is fairly close to the top two if its integral African provinces and the Kingdom of the Arabs are considered, but substantially less so with only the metropole, which could make the final stages of decolonization politically tricky. The Ottomans have also risen into the front rank due to all that oil, and the others are second-tier but recovering (Britain and China) or improving (Russia and Japan).
I think power, ITTL, will be a lot less focused on military strength. Even today in OTL some countries seem to think military power is the only kind of power, ITTL, that's not the case and has become so alot earlier. Germany might be economically dominant, but the German people watch American cinema for instance.
I agree. However, "soft power" is quite a thing IOTL too.
With the world a more interconnected place, it's almost inevitable that soft power, especially in the cultural and economic spheres, will be a bigger deal. Of course, it goes multiple ways - Americans will watch German movies too.
That sounds like a good time for a new (world) map.
I'm planning to do a map of Africa in 1955 at the end of this cycle. I've asked someone if he'd be interested in doing a world map; if he isn't, I'll see if there are other volunteers.
Keep in mind, though, that wars aren't the only things that change borders, and the world of 1970 won't be the same as 1955.
Is there a good chance that the Chinese Empire becomes an elective monarchy? IMO that would be the best option for China.
China has no tradition of elective monarchy, but then again, it didn't have any tradition of republican government before it became a republic. It's fair to say that the postwar government will probably consider nearly everything.
Say, would there be an international move for a halal brand association that would police food and drink in the Islamic world?
Then again, with this TL's more diverse Islam I can only see such a thing only existing for a few years before collapsing in on itself.
Yeah, it's the same problem as trying to create a universal kashruth authority - there's no single authority who everyone trusts, and there's disagreement at the margins about what's kosher and what's not.
The most that's likely to happen is a regulation against fraudulent marketing: i.e., any food sold internationally as halal must (a) be certified by at least one religious authority, and (b) disclose which authority certified it. Something like that
exists in a few American states today and would probably be acceptable to a majority of Muslims.
I don't think that branding will be so prominent ITTL, especially not branding based out of religious identity.
That's probably true, but people will still want to know that the halal food they're buying is really halal, and as the world becomes more integrated and more food is sold that isn't produced locally, there might at least be a call for protection from fraud.
rolleyes
