Malê Rising

I've got it: The Alt Churchill, who was a bit of writer in OTL, will be remembered for writing brilliant detective stories! It all fits!

...and Stoker becomes Prime Minister! The cycle completes!

Getting Stoker to Number 10 seems a bit too much of a stretch (although maybe we can get him to Parliament), but I kind of like the idea of Churchill as a writer of detective stories. TTL's Churchill would be a fairly distant ATL half-sibling - his father was himself an ATL-sibling, and in TTL he married an Englishwoman - so it's reasonable that he would have a very different career.

He'll have fought in the Great War in TTL rather than having a background in colonial warfare, which is also bound to affect his outlook. I'm guessing he would still be right-wing but more of a cynic about empire, which won't necessarily be good for him between about 1915 and 1925.

Quality update. Salonika sounds very real in a way I can't quite put my finger on

Thanks!

Well, I would definitely be curious in seeing how the new political landscape leads or doesn't lead into the familiar topics of the 20's and 30's of stocks, tariffs, prohibition, organized crime, and the like.

I'm also curious how the civil rights movement is different from our own, as I assume it must be. Some of the white establishment actions leading up to the Civil Rights Act were direct reflections of our horror at seeing Nazi crimes. So I wonder what the legal landscape will look like without a Holocaust, which seems to be the case ITL.

The civil rights movement will definitely take a different path - on the one hand, as you say, there won't be any Nazis in TTL, but on the other hand, African-Americans outside the Jim Crow states have more political leverage to help their compatriots in those states. Also, in some of the non-Jim Crow states, the civil rights movement will be less about emancipation than about development and economic equality. We'll see a lot of that in the 30s, and we may see organized crime and tariff issues even sooner than that.

(Of course, [Naples] _has_ had a off half-millenium)

To be fair, the same thing could be said about Salonika in the 19th century - it was an important city in ancient and Byzantine times, but had fallen far under Ottoman rule up to that time.

I'd like to see an update focused on technology, please, riders and things.

Not my strong suit, but there will be at least some discussion of this during the later 1910s in connection with the British Empire. (Anyone else who might want to do a more comprehensive tech update is welcome to do so - just run it by me first.)

The T1 Cunningham is a pretty good approximation of what American riders look like.

BTW, are there any black politicians outside of South Carolina ITTL? And how is the Rump Argentina developing without most of the southern part?

At this point there are black congressmen from Mississippi, lowland North Carolina and New York, and politicians at the local level in Texas, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma and Kansas.

Argentina is actually doing pretty well - Buenos Aires province is still one of the most industrialized parts of South America and it's continuing to draw labor immigration. Buenos Aires is also still the port that many of the former Argentine provinces use.
 
Did the 1906 Valparaiso and San Francisco earthquakes still happen? If so, was the response or situation any different?

Cheers,
Ganesha
 
Did the 1906 Valparaiso and San Francisco earthquakes still happen? If so, was the response or situation any different?

Cheers,
Ganesha

Unless you're literally blasting into the Earth and tampering with faults, OTL Earthquakes are going to happen in any ATL as they're not otherwise things that can be influenced by changes in Human history.
 
That reminds me; the 1900's weren't exactly kind to Hawaii in OTL. Being at the center of the Pacific Ocean meant that you are basically a sitting duck for tsunamis. With the islands now independent, who knows how many people are going to go under or how will diplomatic relations change in the aftermath.

Wait a sec, as of the the Salonika interlude we are just 8 years away from the Great Kanto Quake! How will Omar and his family survive that!? :eek:
 
That reminds me; the 1900's weren't exactly kind to Hawaii in OTL. Being at the center of the Pacific Ocean meant that you are basically a sitting duck for tsunamis. With the islands now independent, who knows how many people are going to go under or how will diplomatic relations change in the aftermath.

While Hawai'i is obviously going to get hit by Tsunamis (why do we use different terms for such storms in the Atlantic and Pacific anyways?), their actually would'nt be the same storms as weather is heavily influenced by Humanity.
 
While Hawai'i is obviously going to get hit by Tsunamis (why do we use different terms for such storms in the Atlantic and Pacific anyways?), their actually would'nt be the same storms as weather is heavily influenced by Humanity.

When did I ever say anything about storms? :confused:

I do agree though that weather disasters are probably different in this timeline due to us pesky humans screwing up the system differently. I think we can safely say that the Galveston Hurricane has been butterflied in this timeline, though disasters like the Johnstown Flood may have happened anyway (but that's a mostly man-made disaster, so it doesn't count).
 
I'm assuming that earthquakes and their follow-on events (such as tsunamis) occur on schedule, as do volcanic eruptions; I can't imagine any human activity in TTL that will affect them. Weather will be different, although I've avoided deus ex machina weather events - I don't much like putting things into the story "because butterflies."

The 1923 Japanese earthquake will be a major political event, especially after some of the developments that will take place in the 1910s. Many will survive; it won't kill everyone in TTL any more than it did in OTL, although Tokyo will be hit hard.

Hawaii is politically independent, but it's also a de facto European/American/Japanese economic colony (with a bit of Indian and Malay economic colonization thrown in), so the imperial powers will end up doing part of the rebuilding following tsunamis.
 
At which point is space race ? Tsiolkovsky, if still existing, could be very influential. We can easily imagine him at the forefront of Russian nascent aerospace sector and could be in relation with Verne whose he was a fan, being inspired by his novels. In turn, Vernes could create an institution dedicated to astronautics on Russian model.

PS: I heard someone saying that if Verne had lived longer to write a From the Earth to Mars, adding the latest technological advances such like Tsiolokovsky's works, he would have written on rockets instead of big guns.
 
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Alexander Kurin, Russia After Tolstoy (St. Petersburg: Rodina, 1984)

… Tolstoy’s death in 1911 took part of the soul out of the Russian Revolution. He had, to be sure, been in the background for years, involving himself little in day-to-day politics and devoting himself to writing and contemplation. But he had always been there. It had become traditional for party leaders to go to the vozhd to resolve disputes; his writings and occasional speeches were taken as guidance; and on the rare occasions when he did step in, people listened. Tolstoy was an overwhelming presence in postwar Russian politics, all the more so because his rarely overt about it, and his departure shattered the unwritten system of checks and balances that had grown up around him.

In the post-Tolstoy era, power flowed in three directions: to the faction leaders in the Zemsky Sobor, to the grass-roots village and factory councils, and to the six state companies that now managed the great majority of the Russian economy. [1] In practice, this meant an alliance between the state companies and the largest parties in the legislature. The Zemsky Sobor had secured the appointment of political executives in the companies during the late 1900s; these were invariably loyal to the parties in power, and usually exercised more authority than the companies’ elected boards. In the 1910s, this system became self-perpetuating, with the large parties using their de facto control of the companies (and therefore of the economy) to secure votes while the companies’ importance gave their officers great power within the parties. As the global economy worsened and the companies’ role in “emergency planning” encompassed even more of the Russian economy, the political and economic oligarchy hardened further.

This was something of a mixed curse for the Russians of the time. On the one hand, the slide toward central planning mitigated the worst effects of the depression: the companies made sure that factories remained open and workers kept their jobs, and while many made do with less, few did without. On the other hand, economic policy increasingly became an overt method of control, with work and relief benefits directed to politically loyal factories and villages at the expense of dissenters.

The control was never total. No one party or person was ever able to take over the entire system – no one assumed Tolstoy’s non-title of vozhd, and the leadership throughout the 1910s was collective – and there was pushback by back-benchers appalled at the sacrifice of revolutionary ideals. Nor, for the most part, did the oligarchs interfere with the literary or artistic world. But it was enough. Democracy remained in the village communes, on the floors of the self-managed factories and at the general meetings of cities and peri-urban towns, but there was little left of it at the national level.

Most Russians accepted the situation for the time being; with a depression in progress, keeping their jobs and putting food on the table were more important. But for the narodniks and others who sympathized with anarchism – a group which had included Tolstoy – the oligarchy’s increasing grip was intolerable. Many migrated to Siberia and the Far Eastern provinces where the state companies’ control was thin, and some went beyond Russia’s borders altogether to settle in Manchuria and Korea.

Still others went to Turkestan, which had become the cultural crossroads that Abay Qunanbaiuli had hoped it would be. The politics of Turkestan were as much of a patchwork as ever, with its constituent peoples maintaining their personal law and with Ottoman, British, Russian, Persian and Chinese diplomats competing for influence, but that very patchwork made it into a meeting-place. Samarkand, Tashkent and Bukhara had become university towns that attracted students from throughout the Islamic world and that were a cultural bridge between Russia and northwest China. The Russians who migrated there during the 1910s – most of them Muslim, but an increasing number Christian and Jewish – found themselves in a place as familiar as it was alien…

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Ismet Yücel: Belloism: The History of an Idea (Stamboul: Tulip Press, 2001)

… The Transbaikal Mahayana Orthodox faith is usually regarded as a synthesis of Christianity and Buddhism, and in many ways it is, just as the people among whom it grew are a union of Slavic, Manchurian and steppe peoples. The population of Ukrainians and Russians in the Far Eastern provinces stood at a million in 1914, and grew to two million by 1920 as more people voted with their feet against the growing power of the state companies in metropolitan Russia. Another million Russians lived in Manchuria, making up a majority in several cities along the rail line. The settlers – many of them, during the early years, single or widowed women unable to find Russian husbands due to wartime casualties – married into the Manchurian, Mongol and Buryat populations nearly as often as they married each other. As early as the late 1900s, and certainly by the 1910s, it was clear that a new cross-border people was emerging.

The settlers were primed to accept new religious ideas: they tended toward the anarcho-syndicalist end of the narodnik movement, had moved east precisely to escape the pressure of convention and received wisdom, and were heavily influenced by the theology of the Doukhobors and by Tolstoy’s pantheistic vision of Christianity. They remained strongly Christian in their basic cosmology and life-cycle ceremonies, and even brought many Asians into the faith, but theirs was a grass-roots Christianity that rejected hierarchical authority, and they adopted many aspects of the Buddhist outlook. They identified Jesus with both the Maitreya, representing the future salvation of the world, and the Medicine Buddha, representing salvation and healing in the here and now. Their rituals incorporated meditation and the chanting of mantras adapted for Christian worship as well as aspects of Manchurian and Mongol folk religion, with mountain and nature spirits being subsumed into a pantheist understanding of all things being part of the divine essence.

What is often neglected in studies of the Transbaikal Mahayana Orthodox church is the influence of Islam, and particularly Belloism. The settlers knew of Islam both from the existing Muslim community of Manchuria and from the Muslim narodnik ethos that filtered up from Ma Zhanshan’s Chinese Turkestan. Belloist ideas of communal solidarity, collective labor, mutual education, apolitical creativity and self-rule by consultation and consensus appealed strongly to the settlers’ sensibilities, and gave their collective living arrangements a spiritual and educational as well as an economic dimension.

The Belloist influence was felt mostly in “deep doctrine” and life patterns, meaning that it was less evident in day-to-day ritual than Christianity or Islam. But it is there for those who care to see. Sufi meditation patterns imported through Belloism exist alongside Buddhist meditation among the Far Eastern Russians, the equality of all adults in the religious life of the community is a very Belloist concept, and the concept of mundane work and play as acts of worship is likewise. Several favorite sayings in contemporary Manchuria and Far Eastern Russia – “power shackles the soul,” for instance – are of West African origin.

The balance between Christianity, Buddhism and Islam varied from place to place, as did local practice, and as late as the 1910s, the Mahayana Orthodox were commonly viewed as a collection of syncretisms rather than a single faith. As time went on, however, they developed a common core of ritual, poetry and doctrinal writings, and by 1920, both they and their neighbors saw themselves as a distinct church. And they would gain further purchase during the upheaval that the late 1910s and 1920s would bring to China…

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Sun Dixiang, East Asia in the Decade of Revolutions (Shanghai: New Wisdom, 1937)

… The last Qing Emperor began his reign as a forceful and effective reformer, and he might have finished it as one if he hadn’t stopped halfway. By 1905, he had crushed the rebellious nobles and warlords, instituted land reform across much of the north and patches of the coast, and overseen two legislative elections and the first steps toward industrialization. But he was reluctant to go any further. He balked at giving the legislature more than token powers, for fear that this would lead to a takeover of the government by Han Chinese, and he shrank from the confrontation that would result if he forced land reform in the districts where peasant self-defense societies hadn’t done most of the job for themselves.

By the later 1900s, he had shifted instead to purely economic modernization, trusting that steady growth and improved rural conditions would substitute for further political reforms. But they didn’t; the taste of democracy provided by the legislature only made the people want more, and the peasants in the south wanted to own their land rather than being more comfortable tenants. Migration to the growing industrial cities also led to a displaced urban class that was outside traditional authority structures and which became a center of discontent and agitation. A decade after the nobles’ revolt had been beaten, the emperor faced a challenge from the opposite end of society.

The breaking point was reached in 1913, when a dispute between the reformist and reactionary factions at court escalated into open warfare. The reformists were led by Ma Zhanshan, the Muslim general and former governor of the northwest who was now the imperial minister of trade, and they urged the emperor to continue with the political liberalization of the late 1890s and 1900s. By 1912 they formed a majority of the cabinet, and began to bypass the imperial court and implement reforms through loyal provincial officials. The reactionaries, seeing a threat, decided to act pre-emptively, and in what proved to be a fatal error, the emperor gave them his tacit approval. On the “Night of Swords,” they staged a palace coup, executing Ma and several other reformist ministers and carrying out a purge of the government.

The reformists, however, proved to be far from finished. In the north, they rallied behind Ma Qi, a nephew of the slain minister, and gathered their forces in Xinjiang. In the south, several reformist provincial governors, including those of Yunnan, Guangdong and Fujian, rose in rebellion and declared their support for Ma. With several other provinces staying neutral, the rebels, augmented by allies from Turkestan, advanced against the imperial forces. The imperial armies in the northeast proved a tough nut to crack, and it would take two years before the capital fell, but fall it did, and by 1916, the Qing had been reduced to their Manchurian heartland.

The new regime began with Ma Qi’s coronation as emperor and the promulgation of a fully democratic constitution. In fact, however, power lay in the hands of a clique of generals and provincial governors, and the election of 1916-17 (conducted in several stages in different parts of the country) was tightly controlled. The government did pursue land reform, but this also came with a twist; while Ma confiscated the landlords’ estates, he sought to impose by force the system of quasi-narodnik village communes that the northwestern provinces had adopted voluntarily. This led to yet another wave of unrest in the south, with the peasants and former landlords amazingly finding themselves on the same side. The ruthless crash industrialization program that Ma embarked on beginning in 1919 did nothing to add to China’s social cohesion…

… Korea’s Queen Min was more successful in her effort to steer a middle course. She was no more eager for democracy than her Chinese counterpart, but she was far more thorough about land reform. The gentry’s alignment with Japan during the war, and the peasants’ resolute support of the monarchy, had given her a perfect pretext, and between 1897 and 1907, she confiscated nearly all the disloyal nobles’ land and distributed it to the peasants. After 1905, she forced even the loyal gentry to sell much of their holdings, although she compensated them generously and mollified them with political posts and preferential access to trade licenses. The combination of land reform and economic growth, along with rigorous policing of the civil service and a merciless attitude toward corruption, kept discontent at a manageable level.

The queen’s good fortune was also aided by the religious crisis that Korea had fallen into during and after the war. Many of the Buddhist monasteries had joined the rural gentry in siding with Japan, which had cost them the respect of the peasants, as had postwar revelations of corruption among the monastic hierarchy. Many peasants turned instead to Orthodox Christianity, which had been introduced by the increasingly influential Russian community and which was closely allied with the throne. Others joined the Religion of the Heavenly Way, an outgrowth of the Donghak movement and the wartime peasant militias, which incorporated aspects of Orthodoxy (including widespread use of icons) as well as Confucianism and traditional shamanism. This movement was more radical than the straightforward Orthodox Christians, and its mutual-aid networks would prove troublesome later, but for the time being, it looked to the queen as champion of the poor…

… The 1900s and early 1910s in Japan were a time of rapid growth; its Pacific investments and merchant fleet prospered, the new territories in Kamchatka yielded rich timber and coal harvests, and Filipino independence had given it an ally that was both a large market and a bountiful source of resources. In 1914, Japan bought Spain’s Micronesian possessions, which were no longer tenable after the loss of the Philippines, and brought a large swath of the Pacific under its control.

Under the surface, though, the Japanese power structure was increasingly strained. Since the imperial restoration, Japan had what was often called a matoryoshika government after the popular Russian nesting dolls: successive layers of bureaucratic, military, governmental and court figures with the emperor at the center but often weakest in terms of actual power. The balance of power between these layers, and between factions within them, often changed, most spectacularly with the failed army coup of 1898 and the subsequent ascendancy of the navy and merchant class, but the cliquish essence remained unchanged.

The rising middle class was unhappy with this situation, and after the economic downturn of the mid-1910s took hold, the disaffection spread rapidly to the working class and the newly unemployed. Indeed, Japan’s dependence on exports and maritime trade made it particularly vulnerable to a falloff in global demand, and it was both hard-hit by the crisis and slow to recover.

The result was an unprecedented growth of mass politics, which for the first time in centuries became a serious challenge to the powers that were. Several factions sought to mobilize the disaffected workers for their own ends, and some also recruited the neglected and often-mistreated army veterans to their cause. The veterans’ movement that had existed since soon after the war now had powerful sponsors who publicly proclaimed that the soldiers should not be ashamed. Many ex-soldiers refused to be used, but others, along with their sons, repaid this sponsorship by acting as street enforcers and supporting their patrons at mass demonstrations.

By 1918, the faction leaders exercised enough pressure through street gangs and labor unions – and, increasingly, through the emperor, who saw them as a way to break free of the entrenched court bureaucracy – to force through a package of constitutional changes. These gave greater powers to the Diet, instituted universal suffrage and social insurance, and brought the military and the civil service under direct government oversight. In practice, elections would be fought as much on the streets as on the ballot box, with each party having its private militia of ex-soldiers and unemployed workers and its deep network of patronage. Power had again moved between factions and institutions, but the rule of the cliques had not yet been broken…

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Dimitri Negassie, The Remaking of Ethiopia (New Moscow: Icon Press, 1978)

… Menelik II died in December 1913, hailed as one of Ethiopia’s greatest emperors. Only the old still remembered the old days of warring principalities; the young had grown up in an empire that Menelik had made strong and kept at peace. Two million people descended on Gondar to line the streets at his funeral procession: peasants and townsmen from the Ethiopian heartland; Somalis; Russians from Eritrea; tall tribesmen from the upper Nile. Christians and Muslims, and the capital’s few Jews, stood together in the rain as the emperor’s coffin passed.

The rule of Ethiopia now fell to Menelik’s oldest son Tewodros III and his wife, the Grand Duchess Anastasia. In a double coronation ceremony on February 11, 1914, Tewodros formally assumed the title of emperor and Anastasia became the nigist; in a startling break with precedent, Anastasia was crowned empress and co-ruler in her own right rather than simply holding the title by marriage. In a country where dynastic politics still mattered and where the Russian minority had become a symbol of modernity and progress, the symbolism was unmistakable.

It soon became clear that Anastasia was not co-ruler only in name. The two had developed a strong partnership in their decade of marriage, and shared a desire to complete Ethiopia’s modernization. Menelik had reformed the army, improved the roads and ports, and founded the empire’s first university, but he had left the feudal society of the countryside untouched and had done little to build a modern economy. Tewodros and Anastasia were determined to do what Menelik had left undone.

The new emperor began by rationalizing Ethiopia’s patchwork of feudal domains into six kingdoms: Amhara, Oromo, Tigray, Eritrea, Samaale and Kush. The nobles’ landholdings became districts of purely administrative significance; real power would reside in the kingdoms’ centrally appointed civil service, which was dominated by imperial loyalists. The princes were given high-ranking posts in the new government, but lesser nobles suffered a staggering blow, and the one that followed would be even more so. In January 1915, Tewodros decreed that serfdom was abolished and that the former serfs would have the immediate right to purchase their farms at fixed prices. The compensation scheme for their ex-landlords was reminiscent of Russia, and doubtless showed Anastasia’s hand at work: the government would give lump-sum payments to the nobles which would be repaid by the peasants over 30 years, with the lump sums being raised by bonds secured by the peasants’ debt obligation.

The nobles’ reaction to this was as may be expected, and much of the country was in rebellion by summer. Similar revolts had torn the country apart in the past, and this one might also have done, if not for the fact that Menelik had transformed Ethiopia’s feudal army into a professional one. Tewodros and Anastasia could also count on the allegiance of their Somali and Nilotic subjects, among whom feudalism and serfdom had never become entrenched and who had become integrated into the imperial patronage system through fostering and education – and, critically, they could count on the Russians. The old Tsar had complained bitterly about Eritrea’s new status, correctly inferring that “kingdom” meant “province,” but the governor and most of the settlers believed that they were better off as an integral part of a regional power than as a backwater vassal, and Anastasia’s presence on the throne did much to ensure their loyalty. Like the French civil war, the nobles’ rebellion was bitter but short, and by early 1916, the empire was under firm control and the nobles that refused to submit were a head shorter.

The same year would see the election of Ethiopia’s first imperial parliament, composed of a house of commons chosen by universal suffrage and a house of lords that was a consolation prize for the dispossessed noble class. The parliament was, as yet, a weak one, as were the legislatures of the six kingdoms; the emperor and empress still had broad powers, and the appointment and dismissal of governments remained with the throne. It had the problems of many top-down attempts at democratization and would not be satisfactory forever. But for the first time, Ethiopia was a constitutional state, and its people had a hand in government.

The remainder of the 1910s were devoted to administrative and economic reforms. Anastasia, whose long interest in the Nile provinces had been recognized with the title Kandake of Kush, oversaw infrastructure improvements in the Nile Valley and introduced a corps of jajis to bring primary education to the countryside. The other four kingdoms would also use itinerant teachers along with brick-and-mortar schools, albeit with separate corps of teachers for Christian and Muslim villages. Tewodros also invested in industrial development in Gondar and the Eritrean littoral, creating the empire’s first industrial zones with significant Russian expatriate investment.

In the meantime, Ethiopia’s regional influence grew with Yemen’s increasing detachment from the Ottoman Empire. Here, too, the Russian and Eritrean populations played a key part: Valentin Mikoyan and his army were well remembered among the Yemenis, and his postwar service in the Ethiopian general staff helped persuade them to trust Ethiopia as peacekeeper and arbiter of their disputes. By 1919, the political and cultural power of Ethiopia was strong in this region, and it would become more so with that year’s crisis in Aden…
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[1] See post 3278.
 
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Sulemain

Banned
I particularly enjoyed your Russia update, JE. I studied that country for a year at uni, and it struck me that Russia reforms are often a case of two steps forward, one back, punctuated by long periods of repression. So the de-democratisation of Russia doesn't surprise me, although it is still far better off then OTL. Corporatism is not good economics though.
 
Well, seeing Tolstoy's dreams crushed by an oligarchic bureaucracy hurts, but at least he wasn't succeeded by a Stalin-like autocrat, and his death indirectly created the Mahayana Orthodox faith. Speaking of orthodoxy, will it become the main religion of Korea? It seems like Buddhism will lose a lot of believers to Orthodox Christianity and alternate Cheondoism. Korea itself will probably do better than its OTL counterpart; I don't think Japan will ever set foot on that peninsula again, nearby Manchuria is a remnant of a backwards state, and the Queen is slowly modernizing the country.

China: shit is about to hit the fan. The Ming remnant could attempt to take advantage of what seems another upcoming civil war to dethrone the Ma, but they probably are too weak to do it. If they don't get absorbed by the mainland, I can see Manchuria become a relatively archaic, impoverished backwater country that will eventually become a Russian or (more likely) Japanese puppet.
 
I foresee trouble in Japan to come, what with all those veterans and private armies loyal to different parties.

Yeah, that sounds rather Weimar-esque...

Also in general when it comes to this update: The developments in East Asia will be quite interesting, with all your foreshadowing. A firmly RHW Korea (a theocratic republic?), a possibly fractured China and a Japan faced with quite a few internal problems... Sounds like a future hot spot. Also Ethiopia is developing nicely, which is good to hear!
 
So South Arabia is once again influenced heavily by Ethiopia, as it was before Islam. Brilliant update. It sounds as if Ethiopia continues with the reforms that its on, it could definitely be the powerhouse of Eastern Africa. It's a big shame about Russia though.
 
Very cool updates! Several countries are on the verge of something that could be very bad : countries like Russia, China or Japan could see the rise of a ruthless man to power. There were reasons why totalitarian regimes popped up after WWI : firstly because there was anger and these leaders had a (then) desirable goal of bringing a new order and secondly because it was made possible by the technology. Here we are quite in the same situations.
The update on Russia made me think about art : The 20s in OTL saw an explosion of artistic creativity with the creation of the first electronic instruments, the introduction of new kind of music (jazz ect). Here we have several potential centers of art that weren't as important in OTL : Stamboul, Shanghaï or Havana, man that seem quite a good world to live in!
 
It's very interesting to see countries dance on the edge of success or failure. Ethiopia's passed that test, but I'm not so sure about Japan, Russia, or China. Also, what did the rump Qing Empire do to the Han immigrants to Manchuria?
 
At which point is space race ?
Well surely a good long time after 1920! It is rather dizzying to try to anticipate what kind of world we'd see by 1950, which is the very earliest I can imagine the prospect of people seriously and soberly planning to put stuff into orbit within their lifetimes.

I started this with a rather elaborate tangent--color yourselves all amazed, OK?:eek:

1950 is about as early as I can imagine serious business and government funding being attracted to serious attempts at astronautical enterprises. Success might take a good deal longer.

Tsiolkovsky, if still existing, could be very influential.
Well, he was born in 1857 OTL, so it depends on how hard those butterflies flap. By strict theory he's a goner but so would be a lot of other important characters here; Jonathan seems to be a moderate on that subject. The first moment I think Russia would have been strongly and systematically affected by events in West Africa and the African-American diaspora seems to be that nation's defeat in the 1877 Balkan war, though I might have lost track of other significant early interactions. (For instance the alternate outcome of the Franco-Prussian War, and both Russia's defeat and Napoleon III's earlier victory (relative to OTL anyway!) had antecedents, some going back presumably a decade or more. If his early life were largely as OTL he'd barely be squeaking by. A lot of crucial things (such as the illness that deafened him, and the early deaths of his parents) happened when he was quite young, so maybe. Only Jonathan can judge.
We can easily imagine him at the forefront of Russian nascent aerospace sector and could be in relation with Verne whose he was a fan, being inspired by his novels. In turn, Vernes could create an institution dedicated to astronautics on Russian model.
Well, there are quite a lot of Russians involved with the advance of science and the development of technology in any era after say 1800, if not even before. If we lost Tsiolkovsky we might gain several others to take his place, overlapping his accomplishments with others of their own. His example OTL certainly proves they'll be involved in many things.
PS: I heard someone saying that if Verne had lived longer to write a From the Earth to Mars, adding the latest technological advances such like Tsiolokovsky's works, he would have written on rockets instead of big guns.

Modern rocketry was certainly not something dreamed up by Tsiolkovsky and Goddard alone; I can't remember enough to find a link but there was an alleged invention of a liquid-fueled rocket engine in South America around 1900 OTL--don't recall if the man actually tried to make a working model or just drafted a passable design. I'd be surprised if Cayley didn't at least touch on the subject and he was pre-POD.

So people like Goddard, and Tsiolkovsky, and the various crews of British, German (and German-fluent Eastern Europe in general), Russian and American enthusiasts of the 1920s and '30s would have their counterparts, and not just in those classic OTL venues either; one would probably have to add in a lot more French than OTL (or pay more attention to the French we did have OTL), both Francophone and Anglo-sphere Africa, West and South, probably some interest in Ethiopia and Zanzibari Africa, the various parts of the Ottoman Sultanate and Japan too, not to mention China, and Brazil and other South American countries.

French Futurism influenced a generation of government in France after all. Socialists in general ITTL are progressive and forward-looking and there are lot of them in various types.
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Still there are important cautions to remember. OTL all the successful programs were intertwined with military funding. We know there won't be a big war between two highly developed blocs of nations before 1960 or so, and I rather hope there isn't one after that either.

I don't believe the theory that technical progress is mainly advanced by war. It certainly can and does promote a spurt of focused development of proven possibilities and even provokes proving some new ones, but I figure the cost in lost opportunities and wealth must largely offset that, so a peaceful timeline will progress roughly as fast as a warlike one.

But of course just because no big wars are actually fought doesn't mean no one ever thinks they might have one soon and so there might be investment in developing specifically military tech.

Still I think rockets are a bit outlandish for sober, conservative general staffs and government ministers to go out on a limb to pursue. OTL the German government had special reasons to fund von Braun's group's research and development. And an ATL Weimar Germany that stemmed from OTL's Great War and aftermath might have done so on some scale or other without Hitler's Third Reich writing the checks, because one reason the German Army showed an interest OTL was that rocketry was a loophole in the Versailles Treaty limits. Unlike most other militarily relevant technologies, precisely because rockets were considered quaint and outmoded, no one thought to ban or strictly limit German work in that field, so the Army could openly fund it without flouting the letter if not spirit of the Treaty.:p

That doesn't apply here nor is any country defeated in the Great War here under such sweeping restrictions, so it would be a far stretch to convince any clique of generals anywhere to take a strong interest.

Consider that rocketry really is not the same thing as aeronautics at all, although the two do overlap a bit. Aviation I think will progress very roughly parallel to OTL, aside from military stuff, on the strength of civil applications. I don't see why even the turbojet engine should be delayed more than a decade if that; it was evident back in the 1920s that the future of airplanes lay in climbing higher and going faster, whereas propellers OTL started hitting speed of sound limits during the Great War! More speed means more power; look at a BeeGee racer to see what absurdities that led to--it wasn't long before ingenuity led to packing more punch in a given engine displacement but still, the challenge and even the general solution to the limits of the piston engine was evident to many people long before Whittle and Ohain, working independently, demonstrated functional jet engines.

(If we butterfly OTL by getting rid of both these inventors, there were Russians approaching the turbojet, and Lockheed in the USA had designers already laying out a pretty good jet airframe before they had the engine in hand or had heard of either Whittle or Ohain--they knew in broad outline how a turbojet would have to be laid out, and an evolutionary path via improvements in turbosuperchargers was open had the British and German geniuses not leapfrogged it--and I daresay they were able to do it when they did and not before because of advances in metallurgy driven by those same superchargers.)

But rockets are quite different. Aside from the dream of space propulsion, which was shared by many of the OTL early developers including Goddard and of course Russians seeking to realize Tsiolkovsky's paper visions, they needed to get funded by pointing out some uses for earlier stages of development, and that was not an easy gap to fill. Not only did they need to make rocket engines both powerful enough and reliable up to make things go up and fast, they needed to control them to make them go where they were needed. For militaries, that meant aiming a decent sized warhead at a target--to intercept enemy warplanes for instance--such a moving, jinking target would need some kind of electronic active tracking system, if only an unjammable version of responding to ground or aircraft-based human remote guidance. To hit a distant target along the lines of glorified artillery would take the things quite out of range of any secondary guidance control and thus required very precise inertial guidance--something not really perfected until very late in the 1950s OTL, certainly not in a form robust enough to survive a rocket launch! The only reason ICBMs made any sense in the 1950s was that a thermonuclear warhead would blast such a large area that considerable error in targeting could be acceptable. That of course meant making rockets that not only had this elaborate guidance system but also were big enough to loft an H-bomb--it was giving such rockets both the throw weight and the range to strike at intercontinental distances that enabled the first satellites to be launched in the late 1950s.

Given that the can of developing fission bombs will be kicked at least a decade and maybe more down the road due to there being no immediate threat of major war at hand, and that fission bombs are essential to making fusion weapons, it would be a long time before the need for such weapons, even in only token amounts, would become evident.

As an alternative to gun artillery and guns in general, smaller, shorter-range missiles with lower mass payloads do have their attractions, but again their development would be drawn out if the military need is not immediate, and to be really effective they still will need rather elaborate solid-state electronics.

So what peaceful roles can rockets that fall short of orbital capabilities approaching a ton or more accomplish? It is not really easy to imagine them unfortunately!:eek: About the most interesting idea I've ever heard of was the notion that a rocket's payload could be mail; a mail rocket between Europe and North America--and here we can add southern Africa to Europe, West Africa to Europe, from any of these places to eastern Asia, or to Australasia--would have the attraction of crossing the oceans in mere minutes--well, tens of minutes approaching an hour to be sure. But far faster even than new-fangled jet airplanes, even very fast supersonic ones using ramjet-related methods to achieve Mach 3 or more. (Lockheed is just lately proposing a successor to the SR-71 that could reach Mach 6).

Again there is that same pesky tracking/guidance/control problem though; a mail packet might be aimed at a reserve area of land or even water where no one is allowed to trespass, but to cover the likely error of a 1940s OTL rocket, even if one could be given intercontinental range, would involve clearing out ares the size of small or even medium-size nations--and then locating and retrieving the package in a timely fashion, soon enough so that it doesn't become faster to just send it airmail in a fast subsonic jet!:rolleyes: Getting that circle error probable down to something manageable, and making reliable we don't risk hitting some church or school with it instead, is a job for electronics that were only dreamed of in 1948!

Assuming the packet survives reentry at all that is--one aspect of Tsiolkovsky's genius, IIRC, is that he may have been the first to tackle the question of how to get a satellite back down to Earth safely without it burning up on the way down--one solution of his involved evaporative cooling, using heavy stocks of water to boil off and thus keep the temperature below the melting point of known metals.

So that's three broad problems to lick--making a rocket big and powerful enough to travel useful distances carrying a useful payload; guiding the thing so it goes where you want it to and not at random; protecting the payload on its way down. (Then actually landing it safely is left as an exercise to the reader...:p) None have any civil applications until you can get the mail rockets working.

A mail rocket would be competing with telecommunications of course--why not just send the message by radio? I think it might be possible that even before an intercontinental nuclear delivery system is contemplated, perhaps someone will think of the basic idea of the communications satellite. We know now that comsats (and Earth survey satellites) are where the action is in peaceful astronautics.

The leap can only be made ITTL when electronics robust enough to do the job with minimal power consumption can be taken off the shelf--again pointing to the late 1950s and beyond; perhaps after 1970 (with little military demand driving the development of the electronics). But on the other hand--a practical intercontinental mail rocket would be a very short step indeed from one that could put a payload into orbit and leave it there. It seems rather likely to me that rather than attempt to actually develop mail rockets, the ambition for a practical use of orbital rocketry will go straight to comsats! And just maybe, before the electronics gets good enough, to a manned space station instead That brings us back to late 1940s (OTL) capabilities, but of course also to commitment to a massive program of not only orbiting a space station but rotating crews of astronauts up there to run the thing, and then getting them down to Earth safely. Really more of a job for 1960s tech then, and by then the need for human maintenance techs in orbit will have receded before suitably robust and capable electronics...

So--unless the various nations of mid-20th century in this timeline are indeed engaged in a missile arms race, presumably only useful if they all have nuclear weapons, I'd guess that serious institutional backing will have to wait until the prospects of constellations of communications satellites is right on the horizon, and that would not be until after 1960 I'd guess, maybe even 1970.

So, I want to say--1950 at the earliest, for a program that just might match or maybe slightly beat OTL Sputnik I into orbit in the late '50s. OTOH I don't think it will wait as long as 1980.

Take your pick somewhere in that 30 year circle error probable!
 

PhilippeO

Banned
The new emperor began by rationalizing Ethiopia’s patchwork of feudal domains into five kingdoms: Amhara, Oromo, Eritrea, Samaale and Kush.

no Tigray kingdom ? are they going to be part of Amhara ? they will not be happy about this.
 
Now I'm looking at a globe, considering the latest update (which I did read before writing the above, but didn't integrate to any detailed extent), and the general drift of the Malê Rising world. The simple fact that there are no great wars of great powers in any WWII type showdown gives me a lot of hope. The possibility of any single nation achieving hyperpower status comparable to the USA in the mid and late 20th century OTL seems very remote and until something changes I'm dismissing it. What we have here is a much more multipolar world. I suppose there is simply no way the USA will be as rich per capita as it was OTL by mid-century--there is no basis for the informal hegemony we "enjoyed" that enabled us to concentrate so much.

OTOH I don't see any reasons for Europe to be a lot poorer. And the USA will still be a good trading partner and I do think a number of other regions will be substantially better off. So, it isn't zero-sum and the world as whole will be richer; perhaps Americans will enjoy a pretty close to OTL standard of living after all by trading for a fairer share of a significantly larger world pie.

I am not too dismayed by the direction Russia has taken; it is sad they can't achieve the dream of the Narodniks--or really, they are surpassing the most hopeful dreams of the OTL Narodniks and falling short only of the most sanguine hopes of OTL Bolsheviks--who after all assumed early in their revolution that the proletariat of the developed Western nations would soon be joining them and helping them.

Post-Tolstoyian Russia lacks the relentless drive of OTL Stalin to force-draft industrial capacity at all costs, nor does it have quite the same territorial scope. But they also are avoiding the excesses of Stalinist terror and the appalling waste of those frantic projects. I daresay that, corrupt and hidebound or not by standards of Narodnik or Marxist idealism, the industrial syndicates are running a tighter and more effective ship than the OTL Soviet bureaus did. They will not be disrupted by a vicious and murderous war of conquest, nor have Russian peasants suffered the horror of Stalin's regime. It might become a political mess and get still deeper mired in ugliness, but one can also hope they plod along their current course steadily if with grumbling, and then I think they will at least match and very likely exceed the best work of the USSR OTL. So I doubt Russia falls behind OTL and it bids fair to pull ahead. So that part of the world is richer.

Then there is the Ottoman Sultanate, now reformed. We've been warned there will be disillusionment there too, but that is to say the cup is not all the way full--it's still at least half-full! The biggest threat to its territorial integrity now is the British trying to rip off pieces, and I think they have the political and moral capital with enough subjects to resist that with fair success. From the Balkans to the Caucasus, with Egypt and the entire Fertile Crescent--all of Iraq's oil and a good part if not essentially all of the Persian Gulf reserves as well--despite some warning of the Oil Curse falling, it seems clear to me that by mid century the Ottoman realm as a whole will be among the top five powers in the world, and at least in certain centers of development if not everywhere, developed to First World standards. It is definitely looking to be both richer and more civilly stable than the same lands OTL.

China is having serious problems but they don't look worse than OTL and there is some prospect of a strong new Chinese state emerging pretty soon, soon enough that the place will not tempt the Japanese to launch on another binge of attempted conquest. I won't try to guess where East Asia goes from there; there seems little chance of anything like Maoism--which will avoid a lot of tragedy, on top of avoiding the generation-long war with Japan and the ongoing civil war of the warlord era. There also won't be the same drive to industrialize at all costs. But Japan will still need resources and markets; perhaps they can peacefully synergize with each other and perhaps then China can approximate the net development rate of the OTL PRC.

Not if population growth rates don't level off they can't--but one of the first things to attract me to this timeline was the feminism of the developing Malê society in West Africa, and throughout, in many venues far apart, women have a way of asserting themselves. I happen to believe, wisely or foolishly, that if women gain respect and self-empowerment, they will adjust their rate of birth to levels they think are reasonable, and in the Chinese context, if this happens there that will mean a reduction of birthrate on the whole. Perhaps not down to the actual results of "one child per family," but within hailing distance of it considering the policy is not enforced with perfect success OTL.

It is not clear to me that India will be a whole lot better off. At least we can expect they'll avoid the bloodshed and disruption that OTL went along with Pakistan (including then Bangladesh) splitting off. So anyway I doubt they will do worse.

South Africa is better situated to get the most out of all its inhabitants, and to do better by more of them--a clear net increase in wealth, and its sphere of influence will reach more naturally up the continent and draw in still more Africans.

The Zanzibari Sultanate may or may not stabilize; if it does again there seems good reason to believe its peoples will be better off and safer--despite the spread of HiV, which society will perforce adapt to.

Ethiopia seems off to a very solid start as a modern state; the OTL horrors of the 1970s and after should be avoided there. Also, I wonder if, as the current generation is replaced by later ones that don't remember the Great War years, Russia and Ethiopia will tend to renew their old partnership, via an alliance.

We've been told what level of development to expect in the Sokoto-Malê region, and that presumably comes close to predicting the fate of French West Africa as well. Again both regions will clearly be better off than OTL.

I don't have enough of a sense of what is likely to happen in South America or Southeast Asia to judge, but even if both these regions are a wash compared to OTL, clearly the world as a whole is much improved.
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So--to get back to the distant and vague prospects of a "Space Race"--by the 1950s I think I can enumerate a number of nations or possible international blocs that will be in the running for actually launching the very first satellite--or anyway following that act by some other country with second and later places quite soon, within the next decade at latest, either developing their own launch capability:

These are:

German Empire--no good launch sites are to be found on European soil, so they'd have find someone to parter with for that;

Britain--if not too badly diminished by the 1920s crises and aftermath;

France--possibly with a launch from West Africa over suitably cleared or warned Sahara tracts;

Russia--ideally launching from the Ethiopian-run or -aligned Somalia--unless that's Zanzibari territory.

The USA--lacking any overseas colonies but the purchased ones, I guess Canaveral if not somewhere south of there will remain the favored launch site.

Some other possibilities--
Japan in partnership with the Philippines and better yet also unified Ma Dynasty China; China going it alone seems far more remote a chance;

Australiasia if separated from "Britain" or maybe as a launch site and major driver of a Commonwealth space policy

Brazil, depending on level of development--now they have the OTL ESA Kourou site.

Zanzibari Southeast Africa, if partnered with the South Africans.
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Actually if even only some of my rosier hopes for these regions of the world come true, and meanwhile the areas I have averted my eyes and speculations from on the whole at least don't do worse than OTL, such a richer world really ought to start progressing materially at a faster once the more backward regions have matured up close to first-rank power standards

However I doubt the latter will be at hand until the '40s at the earliest; so I think I should stand by my "1950s at the earliest; with the midrange perhaps skewed back 5 years or so.
 
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