Honestly I doubt Paulos would be happy if Abacarism was so rooted in his family, I think the exiting of his family from the political arena may be one of the best things to happen to the ideology long term, it's going to have to find it's place in society and re-define itself.
Malê Rising
- Thread starter Jonathan Edelstein
- Start date
Honestly I doubt Paulos would be happy if Abacarism was so rooted in his family, I think the exiting of his family from the political arena may be one of the best things to happen to the ideology long term, it's going to have to find it's place in society and re-define itself.
Holy crap was this an update! 
Okay...
Does this mean that ITTL the Tuaregs shall have their own country to call home?
I can easily see an African motor company dominating the market in this timeline's future. I kinda worry for the Republic though, now that the Abacars have gone.
I'm guessing this shall be one of the flashpoints that shall trigger British decolonization, or is it yet too early to say goodbye?
THAT WAS AMAZING. Truly. After reading the Russian Revolution, I've been feeling kinda sorry for the Romanovs, knowing just how far have they fallen. Reading this update, all I want now is to just throw her sisters onto a boat somewhere and for her to explore the neighboring country without her father going on a diplomatic rampage.
Speaking of which, what happened to her mother? The Tsar did mention a wife during the revolution.
At this point, is it even necessary to call the whole polity the Anglo-Omani Empire?
Have you considered novelizing this timeline yet? I would buy this from the nearest bookstore just as as soon as it opens if you do!
Okay...
Does this mean that ITTL the Tuaregs shall have their own country to call home?
I can easily see an African motor company dominating the market in this timeline's future. I kinda worry for the Republic though, now that the Abacars have gone.
I'm guessing this shall be one of the flashpoints that shall trigger British decolonization, or is it yet too early to say goodbye?
THAT WAS AMAZING. Truly. After reading the Russian Revolution, I've been feeling kinda sorry for the Romanovs, knowing just how far have they fallen. Reading this update, all I want now is to just throw her sisters onto a boat somewhere and for her to explore the neighboring country without her father going on a diplomatic rampage.
Speaking of which, what happened to her mother? The Tsar did mention a wife during the revolution.
At this point, is it even necessary to call the whole polity the Anglo-Omani Empire?
Have you considered novelizing this timeline yet? I would buy this from the nearest bookstore just as as soon as it opens if you do!
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Oh I see now how this may work.
You will use the lever of a *South African war or *Jameson raid to act as a catalyst for the breaking of Britain (in a French transition between republics model) and the formation of a better (I hope) South African union.
The South African adventure will drag in Britain, break them free of their wartime allies, be the camel that broke the straw's back wrt finances (already precarious), political consensus back home and within the various bits of the empire (white, Indian, African etc) and military capacity. All building on various OTL fracture points but within ATL's more developed/stressed systems.
You will use the lever of a *South African war or *Jameson raid to act as a catalyst for the breaking of Britain (in a French transition between republics model) and the formation of a better (I hope) South African union.
The South African adventure will drag in Britain, break them free of their wartime allies, be the camel that broke the straw's back wrt finances (already precarious), political consensus back home and within the various bits of the empire (white, Indian, African etc) and military capacity. All building on various OTL fracture points but within ATL's more developed/stressed systems.
I think I'll have to agree with Julius. I'm seeing South Africa as one of the big breaking points for British policy in the coming years, alongside Ireland and India.
Speaking of Eritrea, I'm getting the feeling that the Russians of Eritrea are going to develop a unique identity as time goes on. We know that Anastasia will become Empress and come to appreciate Eritrea's bonds to Ethiopia, and on top of that we have a common Eritrean hero in General Mikoyan to both the Russians and the locals. I'm interested to see how it develops. Will Russian language and culture still be somewhat prevalent in Eritrea by TTL 21st century? Do they become merely a province of Ethiopia or does the vassal relationship evolve into a more "federal"(or a stubbornly antiquated version of it anyhow) relationship between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the vassals along the Nile?
Also, I'm interested to see where Tippu Tip's kingdom goes. The optimistic side of me wants to believe his reforms will outlast the British decolonization and the Omani Empire will be a very inclusive federal arrangement where people of all races and religions can advance even as high as the office of Sultan. The more realistic side of me doesn't see the cultural and religious mesh working well in all places and de facto dominance by one group or another, the transition to democracy being problematic(especially with the Free Provinces and Melisande's Rwandan ideology developing), and the British policy changes having an adverse effect here too. I guess we'll just have to wait and see where we go from here.
On a random side note: exactly how are Barotseland, the Merina protectorate, and the other German protectorate in the South whose name I can't recall right now, doing? IIRC, it was mentioned that they're coming out rather well and eventually there will be a good continuity of local power structures and colonial administration creating relatively stable states, but how much influence do the locals have within the protectorates? Off-hand, I'd guess that after the war's devastation they won't be able to leverage much more influence in those territories and may need a lot of local assistance to run the protectorates, but I'm not sure.
Back a while ago we found that her two titles translate to Queen of Kush/Nubia, aka Ethiopia's vassal tribes in the Nile which have been slowly being brought into the fold by the Emperor for a while now. Her title makes me think that process is going to accelerate in the next few decades.
Speaking of Eritrea, I'm getting the feeling that the Russians of Eritrea are going to develop a unique identity as time goes on. We know that Anastasia will become Empress and come to appreciate Eritrea's bonds to Ethiopia, and on top of that we have a common Eritrean hero in General Mikoyan to both the Russians and the locals. I'm interested to see how it develops. Will Russian language and culture still be somewhat prevalent in Eritrea by TTL 21st century? Do they become merely a province of Ethiopia or does the vassal relationship evolve into a more "federal"(or a stubbornly antiquated version of it anyhow) relationship between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the vassals along the Nile?
Also, I'm interested to see where Tippu Tip's kingdom goes. The optimistic side of me wants to believe his reforms will outlast the British decolonization and the Omani Empire will be a very inclusive federal arrangement where people of all races and religions can advance even as high as the office of Sultan. The more realistic side of me doesn't see the cultural and religious mesh working well in all places and de facto dominance by one group or another, the transition to democracy being problematic(especially with the Free Provinces and Melisande's Rwandan ideology developing), and the British policy changes having an adverse effect here too. I guess we'll just have to wait and see where we go from here.
On a random side note: exactly how are Barotseland, the Merina protectorate, and the other German protectorate in the South whose name I can't recall right now, doing? IIRC, it was mentioned that they're coming out rather well and eventually there will be a good continuity of local power structures and colonial administration creating relatively stable states, but how much influence do the locals have within the protectorates? Off-hand, I'd guess that after the war's devastation they won't be able to leverage much more influence in those territories and may need a lot of local assistance to run the protectorates, but I'm not sure.
Holy shit, Edelstein, the way you made the whole Great War cycle a catalyst for the crystallization of a new world order... I've never seen such literary AH mastery, this is what a TL should look like.
It's fascinating to see how you effectively created stable, sustainable political structures for native sub-Saharan states that didn't have a contiguous political tradition IOTL. Not everything's peachy and perfect and a lot of these states will still have to deal with the poverty endemic to many post-colonial societies, but they're a hell of a lot more stable and culturally productive than OTL.
Melisande's "Islamic anarchism" is fascinating, maybe TTL's *Black Panthers will follow her ideology when black equality becomes more militant in the US (if it does).
It's fascinating to see how you effectively created stable, sustainable political structures for native sub-Saharan states that didn't have a contiguous political tradition IOTL. Not everything's peachy and perfect and a lot of these states will still have to deal with the poverty endemic to many post-colonial societies, but they're a hell of a lot more stable and culturally productive than OTL.
Melisande's "Islamic anarchism" is fascinating, maybe TTL's *Black Panthers will follow her ideology when black equality becomes more militant in the US (if it does).
Sulemain
Banned
Loving this story JE. I'm particularly enjoying the religious aspect, which is weird as an atheist.
What happened to this guy?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Bradlaugh
He's awesome, despite his republicanism.
What happened to this guy?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Bradlaugh
He's awesome, despite his republicanism.
It is a heartening read, as an atheist, as it envisages a better faith than we know. I don't know if JE is an atheist or allied party but he very much prefers a humanist interpretation of religious faith of any flavour, so far as I can guess
I've been under the impression he's an adherent of Reform Judaism myself.
Deleted member 67076
I'm looking forward to hearing more of the Omani Empire and Ethiopia.
I have to agree. (although I myself am not an atheist). Its so amazing to see what's happening in Islam especially. I really wish Abacarism was OTL
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I'll visit these countries in the twentieth century. Like the Philippines and the Andean republics, I need to figure them out. I'm tempted to say that Mexico is roughly the same as OTL, but Mexican events are partly contingent on what happens in the United States - my gut feeling is that something like the Porfiriato would happen, but maybe not with Porfirio Diaz and with a different political style and focus of development. I'd welcome any suggestions from people who know more than me, both as to Mexico in general and how it might deal with the Chan Santa Cruz state in TTL.
Venezuela is probably going through political turbulence now after having backed the wrong horse in the Great War. Maybe there's room for a revolutionary movement - I'd welcome suggestions here as well.
In 1897, the Abacarists have been the governing party for 25 years except for two brief interruptions. Any party in power that long will attract power-seekers who are more interested in their careers than in the party's ideology, and that's what has happened in Ilorin. The war accelerated this process, because the exigencies of war production required the industrialists to be made a de facto part of the government, and now that they're in the Abacarist fold, they aren't leaving.
Usman's role in all this is mixed. On the one hand, because he is a revolutionary, he kept the party closer to its roots than it might otherwise have been, and made sure the careerists didn't take over. But on the other hand, his misgivings about trading on his family name were correct: many Ilorin voters (especially in the countryside) still have semi-feudal sensibilities, and Usman's presence meant that they voted for the family rather than the party and that there was no room for other strong Abacarist leaders to emerge. And Adeseye, who was his proxy during the war, is more dynastically-minded than he is; she saw nothing wrong with the situation and did nothing to correct it.
With Usman and Seye in London, the Abacarists and Ilorin will have to go through some belated growing pains. Some of these will be quite painful. But they'll come out the other side.
The Malê states don't have the capacity to produce as many cars as Germany or the United States, but they'll certainly be in the game. The bulk of their production will be utility trucks and agricultural and construction equipment, but they'll also have a high-quality, semi-artisanal specialty car industry similar to their naval equipment industry. Many race cars and high-end luxury cars in TTL will come from Ilorin.
British West Africa won't be hit too hard by HIV - very few soldiers from that region fought in the Congo. The highest prevalence would be in areas that had contact with the eastern Congo during and after the war - eastern and southern Africa, India, Gabon, Britain, Germany and France. By the time HIV gets to the Niger Valley, people will know about it (or at least know that there's a sexually-transmitted silent killer out there) and will be able to take preventive measures. The infection rate there will, as in OTL, be low.
Anyway, my current guess is that the "Nigeria complex" in 2013 will be at the lower end of the First World - equivalent to Malaysia, or maybe Poland. That will of course mask a lot of variation - just as the Mexican states in OTL range from Chiapas with its Egyptian living standard to Nuevo Leon with its Slovene standard, some of the lower Niger will be marginal Second/Third World and some will be quite comfortably First.
This might change, though - I haven't worked things out in any detail past 1925, and the margin of error in estimating 2013 economies is still recklessly uncertain.
You can blame Napoleon III for calling it the Kingdom of the Arabs - this was an OTL project of his which he was able to carry to fruition in TTL.
To be fair, not everyone in the kingdom is Tuareg - there are Bedouin and Berber tribes there too, as well as (in TTL) some Algerian Arabs who moved there as political exiles. The state certainly has a Tuareg flavor, though, and it will indeed diverge more and more from the French-ruled littoral.
Jord839 is correct - the Nilotic territories will become a kingdom in the Ethiopian empire, and Anastasia will be its queen.
Believe it or not, that's more or less what will happen. Anastasia's sisters will all marry minor European princes, and while her father will disapprove of her marriage to Tewodros and move to Ethiopia, he can't go on a rampage without insulting his feudal lord. (Technically, Anastasia will be marrying up, which is something the Tsar will hate.)
The Tsar's wife went with him to Asmara and is loyal to him; she has accepted the situation with more equanimity than he has.
We'll certainly hear more from her; she'll be an important figure in the early to mid twentieth century.
I've mentioned before that Russia is the least race-conscious of the colonial powers - it considers religion more important than race, and accepted the Eritrean Christians as Orthodox brethren on terms similar to Armenians or Georgians. Many Eritreans serve in the Russian army or hold office in the colonial administration, meaning that they've picked up the Russian language and an appreciation for Russian culture. Also, many of the Russian settlers were single men who married Eritrean women and raised the children as Russians. Now that Eritrea isn't really a colony any more, the prestige of Russian has diminished somewhat, but that foundation remains.
Eritrea in the 21st century will be a very distinct part of Ethiopia - like the Nile and some of the Somali vassal states, it will be a kingdom within the empire, with Russian cultural and religious influence. Russian will still be spoken, albeit by a minority, and will have official status; architecture and public art will also have a strong Russian flavor. Of course, assimilation runs both ways, and the Russians and part-Russians will have picked up Ethiopian and Eritrean traits.
Tippu Tip isn't interested in race; he's interested in loyalty and competence. He wants to fill the nobility with people who are loyal and beholden to him, and to make sure he has a strong successor. Also, while he isn't a fan of democracy, he believes in Ibadi ideals of political justice, and considers it important for all parts of the empire to have political representatives who can bring their grievances to his attention.
Like all political systems, though, Tippu Tip's constitution works better in theory than in practice. The relationship between Zanzibar and the interior is still quasi-colonial, with the interior contributing much more to the treasury than it gets back. Also, not everyone is happy with paternalistic rule, and as time goes on, more people will want real democracy. And as you say, there are still cultural and religious fault lines.
The Omani empire is on a firmer footing now but it's still somewhat jury-rigged, and it will face major challenges after Tippu Tip's death. It's certainly capable of reforming into a genuine federal system, but that will depend on people making the right decisions.
The "free provinces" remind me of something someone said somewhere on this site: making the people equal not by abolishing nobility, but by making everyone a nobleman.
That's basically right - in the Free Provinces, everyone holds a share of a title (which makes them noble by courtesy, albeit not very noble in practice), and they collectively elect a proxy to represent them in parliament.
For the record, BTW, most of the sales that resulted in Free Provinces were collusive - rural East African peasants don't have a great deal of capital, so the Free Provinces are ones where progressive noblemen sold their titles to the citizens for a token sum. The Carlsenist-Masai territories in the Rift Valley, for instance, are among the provinces where this happened.
At this point, is it even necessary to call the whole polity the Anglo-Omani Empire?
The British still have a lot of pull, both through their parallel administration/civil service in the interior and because Oman is deeply in debt to them. If push came to shove and the British commissioner in Zanzibar really opposed something Tippu Tip did, the sultan would have to back down. But he's canny enough to avoid challenging Britain directly until he's built up his strength.
The African-American civil rights movement won't have much use for anarchism - they'll want a strong government that can protect them. Also, the Great Lakes kingdoms are almost as far back of beyond as the Congo is - they aren't as tied into the outside world as West Africa, and their political ideas won't spread as far or as fast.
Mélisande's theology will have impact, though. It's mainly a matter of theory in Rwanda - as mentioned, Rwandan government follows the medieval Swiss/Dithmarschen/Ikko-ikki peasant commonwealth model, and is ruled largely by consensus - but it will influence European anarchism and Islamic views of social hierarchy.
As for Mélisande's fate, all will be revealed in time. I've mentioned that she will fall from power, and that may not entirely displease her; she believes that she's a prophet and is conscientious about doing what she considers her duty, but being a de facto ruler hasn't made her particularly happy.
All I'll say right now is that you're all partly right. South Africa will be a flashpoint, as will several of the West African princely states, but they won't necessarily be the main flashpoints and it won't happen for a while. You'll see more when we get there.
By "they," in the last sentence, do you mean the southern Africans or the Germans? The protectorates were quiet during the war and didn't suffer devastation - their problem is that many young men joined the German army, some of them being killed in battle and others staying on in Germany after the war.
The Germans were devastated, and they're short on manpower, so they aren't interested in settling the protectorates or ruling them directly. They rule through the indigenous kings as feudal overlords - the political system in those areas is semi-feudal to begin with, so the Germans simply added themselves as a new layer in the hierarchy. The kings are subordinate and have to conform to German foreign and economic policy, but they're largely free to manage their internal affairs.
You'll see it, don't worry. The repercussions from that meeting will affect the region for a long time.
I think that's inevitable after a devastating global war - the Napoleonic wars and the two world wars of OTL (and arguably the Seven Years' War as well) all reshaped the political and social order. The amazing thing would be if the Great War happened and things simply went on as before after peace was made!
This is a world in which Europeans haven't interfered quite as much with African state-building (although they certainly have interfered), and in which unifying ideologies have had a chance to take root more organically.
Not all of Africa is or will be stable, though; the Congo is a mess, as are some other Central African regions.
Wow, fascinating character! I'd guess that his career in TTL is much the same as in OTL, given the absence of anything that would really change it; as an atheist, he probably wouldn't pay much attention to the liberation theologies coming from Africa.
The oaths controversy was very interesting and, if it happened in TTL, might be an important precedent.
BTW, I won't say anything about my religious beliefs here (especially since I'm not entirely sure what they are) except to state the obvious fact that I'm a humanist and a nonobservant Jew. If anyone wants to discuss the matter further, don't hesitate to PM me. I'm happy to talk about religion and philosophy - one of my purposes in writing this timeline is to explore ideas about religion, politics and revolution - but I'd prefer to keep personal matters private.
The next update will be the last of the nineteenth century.
Kaiphranos
Donor
Speaking of which, what will the relationship be like between Ethiopia (with its new Romanov vassals) and Tolstoyist/post-Tolstoyist Russia?
I was checking the post-War map again and thinking about things.
First off, since when is Persia a British protectorate? I must have missed that at the end of the Persian Civil War.
Also, I just realized that France and Germany are effectively in a customs union with each other and overlapping sovereignty! Alt-EU predecessor, mayhaps? I hope that TTL's greater European power structure is based off a neo-feudal model, with border zones or contentious zones being both protected and shared a la Alsace. It could be part of the solution to the situation in Hungary, the north Balkans, and in Venetia and Friuli, as a peace restructuring effort across the European community. It might take a couple decades to come around, but something tells me that some of the places I just mentioned are going to have worse problems soon and still be wading through them come the 1920s.
Also, Venezuela, like in OTL, is at the center of a big cultural hug across Latino America, so the politics there might affect broader Latin American trends. So, as you mentioned, there could definitely be a revanchist, militaristic, nationalistic, and likely alt-fascist political movement in Venezuela. They may not get in control of Venezuela's government as a party, but they will certainly have an influence, and probably a broadly nationalistic cultural influence on Venezuela, which in turns influences other countries. Who knows, maybe a split-off from the Partido Nacional de la Patria de Venezuela becomes the prototype for a pan-Latino identity, maybe something Guevara-esque, in his more utopian days? That could take traction in Central America and Mexico, which we have yet to have heard from. This, added tot he US's predictably isolationist lack of interventions, could mean a more politically stable and economically developed Mexico and Central America, which means less border and race conflict based on drug trades and immigrants who enter illegally. Fascinating alt-North America I could envision.
Also, Bolivia ITTL's gonna get loaded, quick. They have access to several more mines in the Andes and a good big chunk of cattle pastures on the Chaco and the northern Pampas, not to mention a strong relationship with the post-Argentine and other gaucho states. I like the idea of a Gaucho Union or eventually a Gaucho Federation with strong ties to Italy, maybe a dual republic/constitutional government. That could only get to the point of unification if Italy leans on Piratini and Friends heavily for economic parternership after going bankrupt and in a financial depression and low-level guerilla war fighting rebel groups in Venetia, maybe a short border war over Istria. The political union of a European power with a more economically and politically powerful American state is intriguing to me, especially when there aren't any colonial connections between them.
I really wonder how the USA's politics are gonna look ITTL, without the two World Wars, without interventions in the Pacific and possibly not in Latin America, without Puerto Rico and the Philippines, without Guam and the Marianas and Okinawa and bases everywhere... I wonder how relationships are with Canada, and how they're dealing, especially with coping with anti-French hysteria. Maybe this was a catalyst for a hyper-conservative Canadian anti-Catholic, anti-French nationalist party or movement? The existence of a politically powerful group with those views could really change the US/Canadian agreements, maybe for the worst. If the British Empire federates and Canada doesn't have the whole Commonwealth at its back, there could be some hairy spats, and after short border conflicts and attacks of xenophobia, there's often a feeling of stolen victory and loose ends, and an escalated conflict emerges a few years later. It's a common trend in Latin America and usually resulted in shooting wars which one nation could reasonably claimed to have won. Maybe American conflicts/annexation/defeat at the hands of the Canadians are what mainly occupy alt-USA's political radar?
Just some thoughts.
First off, since when is Persia a British protectorate? I must have missed that at the end of the Persian Civil War.
Also, I just realized that France and Germany are effectively in a customs union with each other and overlapping sovereignty! Alt-EU predecessor, mayhaps? I hope that TTL's greater European power structure is based off a neo-feudal model, with border zones or contentious zones being both protected and shared a la Alsace. It could be part of the solution to the situation in Hungary, the north Balkans, and in Venetia and Friuli, as a peace restructuring effort across the European community. It might take a couple decades to come around, but something tells me that some of the places I just mentioned are going to have worse problems soon and still be wading through them come the 1920s.
Also, Venezuela, like in OTL, is at the center of a big cultural hug across Latino America, so the politics there might affect broader Latin American trends. So, as you mentioned, there could definitely be a revanchist, militaristic, nationalistic, and likely alt-fascist political movement in Venezuela. They may not get in control of Venezuela's government as a party, but they will certainly have an influence, and probably a broadly nationalistic cultural influence on Venezuela, which in turns influences other countries. Who knows, maybe a split-off from the Partido Nacional de la Patria de Venezuela becomes the prototype for a pan-Latino identity, maybe something Guevara-esque, in his more utopian days? That could take traction in Central America and Mexico, which we have yet to have heard from. This, added tot he US's predictably isolationist lack of interventions, could mean a more politically stable and economically developed Mexico and Central America, which means less border and race conflict based on drug trades and immigrants who enter illegally. Fascinating alt-North America I could envision.
Also, Bolivia ITTL's gonna get loaded, quick. They have access to several more mines in the Andes and a good big chunk of cattle pastures on the Chaco and the northern Pampas, not to mention a strong relationship with the post-Argentine and other gaucho states. I like the idea of a Gaucho Union or eventually a Gaucho Federation with strong ties to Italy, maybe a dual republic/constitutional government. That could only get to the point of unification if Italy leans on Piratini and Friends heavily for economic parternership after going bankrupt and in a financial depression and low-level guerilla war fighting rebel groups in Venetia, maybe a short border war over Istria. The political union of a European power with a more economically and politically powerful American state is intriguing to me, especially when there aren't any colonial connections between them.
I really wonder how the USA's politics are gonna look ITTL, without the two World Wars, without interventions in the Pacific and possibly not in Latin America, without Puerto Rico and the Philippines, without Guam and the Marianas and Okinawa and bases everywhere... I wonder how relationships are with Canada, and how they're dealing, especially with coping with anti-French hysteria. Maybe this was a catalyst for a hyper-conservative Canadian anti-Catholic, anti-French nationalist party or movement? The existence of a politically powerful group with those views could really change the US/Canadian agreements, maybe for the worst. If the British Empire federates and Canada doesn't have the whole Commonwealth at its back, there could be some hairy spats, and after short border conflicts and attacks of xenophobia, there's often a feeling of stolen victory and loose ends, and an escalated conflict emerges a few years later. It's a common trend in Latin America and usually resulted in shooting wars which one nation could reasonably claimed to have won. Maybe American conflicts/annexation/defeat at the hands of the Canadians are what mainly occupy alt-USA's political radar?
Just some thoughts.
To repeat a suggestion I made a long time ago, I figure that as long as race remains a salient factor in the USA, there will be as OTL "Buy Black, Buy African" movements among the African-Americans. And since the African-Americans have a larger number of well-off people and have a whole state they dominate outright, indeed one which holds a major Atlantic seaport, the upshot will be that various West African made automobiles and trucks will be the brand of choice for a significant if small chunk of the US market.
To be sure the US market might not be quite the near-totality of the automotive-purchasing world it has been OTL--the US has hitherto missed a number of imperial boats it was sure to scramble onto OTL and the 20th Century may not be as much an "American Century" as OTL.
But still it is in a position to have solid prosperity, especially with respect to the auto industry. The USA will be a major oil exporting nation, for instance, and will doubtless still develop a culture of mass consumption.
So there will be plenty of scope for development of West African auto brands interacting with the US market, specifically the US Black market. And since African-Americans will have more political allies earlier in the 20th century than OTL, the brand preference may carry over to progressive white allies too, particularly if the African car brands open up plants on US soil (in Carolina, say) to feed US demand.
And so I have hopes that this symbiotic relationship might even foster a distinct African-American presence in aeronautical design and construction as well, and foster West African aeronautics despite the frowns of the British Imperium that tries to concentrate it all in Britain. Even the British-supremacist regime that is coming might hesitate to choke off an entry into the US market after all.
The easiest trans-Atlantic air route to establish first would run from West Africa to Brazil; it would count a bit more strongly than OTL as a route in its own right. From a European and North American perspective the more challenging north Atlantic route to Britain would still be considered the "real" trans-Atlantic route but the easier feasibility of the southern one would establish it earlier I'd think. OTL mail services along that route were the first established airplane commercial services to cross the ocean. (Preceded by Zeppelin flights, but those were quite infrequent, and the first route to be serviced with any sort of scanty regularity was the Germany-to-Brazil route that crossed the Atlantic there too).
I'd predict a somewhat greater golden airship age in the 1910s and '20s except that British tantrums might get in the way. ITTL there's no impediment to Britain being one of the leading airship constructing and operating nations, but alas conflict between her and rival European nations might put the kibosh on any of them developing the world-girdling airship lines that are theoretically possible. To be sure Britain would be the power that comes closest to having both clear routes and demand on a global scale while remaining strictly in-Empire, but to make the system work really well would require a bit of reciprocity with someone or other.
If they can manage that I can envision a belt of airship routes that literally encircles the globe, that ought to be feasible for large scale (luxury) travel by 1920. Not without mishaps--helium deposits will probably be found in the US more or less on schedule, that is to say before 1920, and perhaps in Algeria or even Siberia as well, but refining it will be slow and expensive, and the total volume available will be low for decades and perhaps as OTL reserved by the US government (or Russian or French) for naval use, so we are definitely talking about hydrogen airships here. Also airships are subject to other dangers than fire. But I do foresee a delay in airplanes becoming suitable competitors for long-range transport, especially if there is no WWII analog and so no major wave of military-sponsored runway construction around the world. Airplanes will win out in the end, but I can see a couple decades of airships having a substantial role in world transport, and never being phased out completely but rather retreating to niche markets.
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I have a very bad feeling that the imperialist faction would try to get their hands on something now that their colonial Pacific dream has ended. Here's hoping Cuba and the Dominican Republic would have a peaceful transfer of power if they want to separate themselves from Spain...
EDIT: I just realized that ITTL both countries are now dominions within the Spanish Empire, so even that dream is dashed.
The Gaucho Union idea sounds interesting. I think that they would form an economic block though, or maybe an ASEAN-like polity.
And speaking of Spain, how old is the Pope in this timeline? With the Great War going on and with street fighting between the partisans, I'm sure that his health won't be that great. Also, if he dies, where does the College of Cardinals convene ? (with Rome being very anti-clerical and all)
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By that last sentence I meant that the Germans wouldn't have the leverage necessary to push much further than the influence they already have in the protectorates due to exhaustion, and the native Africans might have a decent chance of being masters of their own house in a lot of ways, which it seems is the case. Thanks for clearing that up.
If a game similar to Victoria II will ever be made in this timeline, the game developers will get a collective headache trying to make some sense out of the neo-feudal or just weird arrangements behind some states' existences...
Officially, Tolstoy's Russia doesn't recognize Romanov rule in Eritrea. Unofficially, they're very grateful to Menelik for taking the Tsar off their hands and providing a place for diehard royalists who might otherwise make trouble. The relations between the Russian and Ethiopian governments are cordial, and they're careful not to mention that Tsar thing.
It isn't, although there's substantial British (and Ottoman) influence. That was a "typo" on the map that I didn't catch, so it's my fault.
France and Germany aren't quite in a customs union - theoretically, the French government has the right to impose tariffs on foreign imports moving from Alsace to the rest of France. In practice, it has done so only for certain products, and there are plenty of loopholes even as to them (which loopholes are making Alsatian middlemen rich). It's close enough to a customs union that the Alsatian economy, and to some extent the French economy in general, is synchronizing with the German one.
It certainly is a medieval arrangement, albeit with plenty of modern trappings, and you're correct that it will be a model for other contentious border zones and national minorities. Unfortunately, you're also correct that it will take a lot of time and warfare before this kind of post-modern feudalism and overlapping sovereignty takes root.
Hmmm. This would be interesting, and even if the pan-Latino ideology doesn't succeed in unifying Latin America (which it almost certainly won't), it would affect the politics of the region and maybe make it more open to economic pacts, albeit with a potentially nasty corporatist-militarist emphasis.
I assume that the Partido Nacional de la Patria de Venezuela is a fictitious party, because I couldn't find anything on Google. If so, I hope you don't mind if I use it.
Yes, Bolivia's going to be rich, and the distribution of that wealth will be a major issue.
The gaucho states are an independent lot, and while they'll probably form a customs union and have many shared institutions, I doubt they'll go as far as political union. They'll have strong cultural and diplomatic connections to Italy, and their support of Italy during the war will be remembered on both sides, but most likely Italy will stay a patron rather than pushing toward any kind of unification.
Isolationist, with domestic economic and social issues as the primary focus; the main foreign policy issues will concern international trade.
I don't think conflict with Canada will be in the cards, though; it's not in either side's interest, and potential border issues have all been resolved.
This probably will happen. Right now, South Carolina's closest commercial ties are with Sierra Leone and Liberia, but they'll want to buy cars from Ilorin as well, especially since the "Malians" (i.e., Muslims) among them consider Ilorin and Sokoto to be a spiritual home.
Ilorin investing in South Carolina is also a possibility, especially if the African automotive companies want to trade more easily outside the British Empire.
The main theater for West African aeronautics might actually be Senegal. France went for lighter-than-air development during the war while the Germans focused on heavier-than-air craft, and there are now primitive dirigibles in use in France. Given that the war has made their empire more, er, compact, and given that the Med and Sahara separate important parts of the empire from each other, I could imagine France (especially a futurist France during Verne's second term) developing and subsidizing airship routes between Paris, Marseilles, Algiers and Dakar. France is also the European power with the strongest economic ties to Brazil, which as you say, could lead to Paris-Rio or Dakar-Rio routes.
You obviously know a good deal about this; how economically feasible would airship routes be within the French empire and across central Europe? I agree that airplanes will win out eventually, but delayed development of jets might keep dirigible airlines open a while longer.
They actually will get their hands on something - peacefully, as will be mentioned in the next update.
He has been Pope since 1878, so he's probably getting up there. The meeting-place for the College of Cardinals will be a very good question and a very contentious one - Rome is out, Madrid could be politically explosive, and any other European city could pose the risk of political influence from the local government. The meeting might actually happen in Brazil - Empress Isabel would be happy to host it, and she's deferential enough to the Church to take a hands-off attitude.
No problem. The main issue will be copper mining. On the one hand, the mining sector will be German-owned and it will lead to large amounts of the protectorates' wealth being expatriated. On the other hand, it will provide jobs, stimulate infrastructure building and education, and possibly lead to local secondary industries such as copper wire manufacturing (which exists in OTL Zambia).
The cash crop sector will be mostly African-owned, although the German government will take out some of the profit in the form of taxes and fees, and the agricultural products will be shipped from Namibia on German ships.
If a game similar to Victoria II will ever be made in this timeline, the game developers will get a collective headache trying to make some sense out of the neo-feudal or just weird arrangements behind some states' existences...
Or maybe they'd set the game in the pre-1893 world just to be on the safe side.
And once again, I find myself in the position of asking for one more comment so that the next update won't be at the end of the page.
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Actually, the Dominican Republic is independent and has been since the Restoration War (1864-1865) against the Spanish Government. IIRC the liberal Spanish govt didn't come until the 1870s so they lucked out on keeping the Eastern chunk of Hispaniola.