Malê Rising

[Falecius]

Whoa whoa whoaaa, independent Indonesia at the turn of the century ??? Even I don't think that's possible. I don't know how earlier Ethical Policy has been implemented here vis a vis OTL, but I don't think it can be by much. There has to be enough amount of pribumi intelligentsia or else this simply isn't doable, and there can't be too many of them by this point.

But certainly with international pressure, Netherlands can be forced to pursue such end, by grudgingly accommodate native participation in colonial government. Perhaps volksraad (IOTL was formed in 1916) will become a genuine parliament from day one, instead of simply "advisory council". Nevertheless it's still premature. However it'll still be interesting to see how this rolls. As far as I can catch, an actual Indonesian nationalism hasn't taken off yet ITTL. It took until 1920s even IOTL though. With such an early call for independent East Indies, Netherlands will simply push for dominion/dual monarchy status, as the only way to retain her crown jewel, and with a cooperative stance with native aspiration from the start of the process, they can have a chance of making Independent East Indies pretty much their own project, with enough native favor to legitimize it. She can come out of this as the winner, as long as no bad luck will befall her on the way.

Moreover, will the independence movement ever come to focus on Indonesia in one piece as a realistic aim?
I can see Sumatran, Javanese and Moluccan nationalisms (not to mention Makassar or the Lesser Sundas) parting their ways at some point, or never joining to be more precise.

 

[Ridwan Asher]

Moreover, will the independence movement ever come to focus on Indonesia in one piece as a realistic aim?
I can see Sumatran, Javanese and Moluccan nationalisms (not to mention Makassar or the Lesser Sundas) parting their ways at some point, or never joining to be more precise.

Well, it's my fault for not monitoring this TL's progress as I initially promised, amongst others. I'm still not learned about the nature of Islamist rebellions in Sumatra and Java, but I'm not confident that fragmented regional, mostly traditional "nationalist" movements can budge Netherlands off without much concrete external support. Besides, no one will like fragmented East Indies, too, and kicking the Dutch out will mean everyone will have to prepare for Scramble, which is the last thing post-war world economy needs. The world needs united East Indies, with, or without Dutch.

Besides not only that the way Netherlands built East Indies during those times was conducive for the emergence of united nationalism (including their imposition of Malay language upon native officials), but most Indonesian cultures didn't have, and still doesn't have, sufficient conditions for effective nationalism, despite typically strong primordial feeling among them. Aceh had a long tradition of de jure statehood and a well defined cultural borders, and here it also had effective patron to secure their independence from Dutch colonialism. Take them aside, only Javanese came the closest, and even then they're not quite near. Diponegoro was their last chance for effective exclusiveness and even his movement didn't rally the entire Javanese ethnicity, only central-southern part of the island (Mataram), certainly excluding the Sundanese west of them. The rest of Indonesia all had less then that, aside from East Sumatran Sultanates, who were pro-colonial in opposition to Aceh.

My bet is that the NEI colonial authority will attempt co-opt however much they can of the resistance movement into the structure.

 

[Jonathan Edelstein]

The update is on the previous page at post 2597.

So much for Westfalia.
You made made most of the world look like the sixteenth century's Holy Roman Empire with a couple of additional layers of chaos.

Well, it's the European powers' first attempt at setting up a framework to deal with modern nationalism. Some of them have realized that Westphalian conventions won't get them very far in dealing with "nations within nations" or dispersed ethnic groups, but because it's a first try, their solutions are a bit... haphazard. Of course, those that actually work will end up becoming models.

By the way, what happens to Moresnet ITTL?

How could I have forgotten Neutral Moresnet? I assume that Wilhelm walked up to Leopold, cosh in hand, and said "You don't mind if I annex it now, right?"

By the way, shouldn't the US be counted as a Great Power at any rate? That would put the number back to six.

Did OTL Europeans in the 1890s think of the United States as a great power? My understanding, although I could easily be wrong, is that most of them still considered the US something of a parvenu.

But even if so, I could see the US getting a permanent position on the court, given that it's the host of the conference and that its delegates (who come disproportionately from the Peace Party) are among the court's chief supporters. Consider it done - there are six permanent judges and 11 rotating neutrals.

Whoa whoa whoaaa, independent Indonesia at the turn of the century ??? Even I don't think that's possible. I don't know how earlier Ethical Policy has been implemented here vis a vis OTL, but I don't think it can be by much. There has to be enough amount of pribumi intelligentsia or else this simply isn't doable, and there can't be too many of them by this point.

No, there won't be an independent Indonesia at this point. Javanese nationalism is somewhat more advanced than OTL, due to (a) the example of Aceh; (b) the spread of Islamic liberalism among the santri class; and (c) the fact that the Dutch treated the Hadhramis badly, leading them to join the santri rather than helping to keep them down. But it isn't yet at the stage of demanding independence. The Javanese demands are similar to what the Indian National Congress was demanding at the same time - not an end to Dutch rule, but recognition of their civil rights and a say in running the colony. There is a discussion of their demands and the ensuing revolt (which was caused by panicked repression on the part of the Dutch) in post 2151.

Yes, the Sultan and Premier Verne want to give the Javanese more than they're actually demanding - that's one of history's ironies.

In any event, what's likely to happen, once the Dutch come to the table, is something like the Ethical Policy (which started around 1900 in OTL, so it wouldn't be farfetched) along with increased local control of some administrative functions and a pledge of eventual self-government. That would be more or less what you outline.

Also, Falecius is correct that there may never be a unified Indonesian nationalism; at this point Aceh is separate, the princely states on Borneo and Sulawesi are relatively satisfied with their autonomy deals, so the santri uprisings are confined to Java and to a lesser extent southern Sumatra. Note that TTL's books still use the term "East Indies."

BTW, it's great to see you back here, and Ganesha too!

 

[Shevek23]

Whoa whoa whoaaa, independent Indonesia at the turn of the century ??? Even I don't think that's possible. I don't know how earlier Ethical Policy has been implemented here vis a vis OTL, but I don't think it can be by much. There has to be enough amount of pribumi intelligentsia or else this simply isn't doable, and there can't be too many of them by this point.

But certainly with international pressure, Netherlands can be forced to pursue such end, by grudgingly accommodate native participation in colonial government. Perhaps volksraad (IOTL was formed in 1916) will become a genuine parliament from day one, instead of simply "advisory council". Nevertheless it's still premature. However it'll still be interesting to see how this rolls. As far as I can catch, an actual Indonesian nationalism hasn't taken off yet ITTL. It took until 1920s even IOTL though. With such an early call for independent East Indies, Netherlands will simply push for dominion/dual monarchy status, as the only way to retain her crown jewel, and with a cooperative stance with native aspiration from the start of the process, they can have a chance of making Independent East Indies pretty much their own project, with enough native favor to legitimize it. She can come out of this as the winner, as long as no bad luck will befall her on the way.

Moreover, will the independence movement ever come to focus on Indonesia in one piece as a realistic aim?
I can see Sumatran, Javanese and Moluccan nationalisms (not to mention Makassar or the Lesser Sundas) parting their ways at some point, or never joining to be more precise.

I'm thinking of how we've been told the British Empire will collapse--and this is in the face of the triumph of the Empire in the Great War and the manner in which it was achieved, with much collaboration (however grudgingly conceded) of native peoples of Africa and India that has brought them many gains. We've also been told of a conservative backlash in the British Empire.

Indonesia (I'm using the term geographically at this point, bearing in mind that pan-archipeligic nationalism is only in embryo if that at this point) might be catalytic. Something like this:

Aside from the reactionary forces mustering in Britain, no doubt in India and Africa there are native extremists, who even now, before any backlashes, argue that they can do better than curry favor within the white-dominated Empire and should seek even more autonomy or outright independence. Even a liberal colonial regime will crack down on them--but won't catch them all. Some might escape, and with the world twisting the Netherlands' arm find refuge in the Dutch East Indies, where they will stimulate further native nationalism. The British will remonstrate with the Dutch for tolerating these dissidents, and the Dutch will throw up their hands, asking "what would you have us do?"

This could become one of the issues the new conservatism in London agitates around, denouncing the restrictions put on the Dutch and advocating for a crackdown in both British and Dutch colonies, treaty be damned.

They might have the means of prevailing for a while, but only at the cost of alienating their colonial subjects in India and Africa, who would be driven toward more radical sentiments by the betrayal of their loyalty during the war. Now the dissidents are cracked down on in both empires, driven underground--but sympathy for dissidence grows by leaps and bounds in the British holdings and underground has a lot more room. Both local nationalism and global anti-colonialism grow in this hothouse environment.

I'd expect that on the other hand the issue of colonial governance becomes politically polarized in the two metropolises as well, with the liberal/radical opposition to domestic conservatives taking up the issue of fairer treatment of the natives as one of their platform items. Eventually the conservative faction falls from power and a liberal British government comes forth with conciliatory offers--but too late, by then too much resentment has grown for a settlement short of independence for West Africa and India--and Indonesia.

 

[Faeelin]

A couple thoughts on the last few posts.

The guys who were dressed in "traditional garb", versus the Congolese who were dressed in the latest suits. That suggests the world looks at non-European states very differently. Look at how the Japanese dressed at Paris in 1919; western clothing.

I think Zollverein entry for Alsace is a bit premature. How does this work, exactly? Goods can flow through Alsace into France? Its outside of France's tariff wall?

Why do the Greeks get Thessalonica and Crete?

"The most Italy would do was guarantee that, if he returned to the Vatican as a private citizen, he would not be molested." I'm a terrible person for laughing at this.

 

[Ganesha]

I'm assuming the reason no mention of India was made is because all delegations viewed it as a British internal matter.

Still, the British will see it as one of the most important issues they have to resolve - and the Indian activists will settle for nothing else than a wholesale discussion of the subcontinent where almost everything is on the table. I think at this point the Indian royal elite will have to give up their reactionary ways and come to the table as well.

Cheers,
Ganesha

 

[Badshah]

I'm assuming the reason no mention of India was made is because all delegations viewed it as a British internal matter.

Still, the British will see it as one of the most important issues they have to resolve - and the Indian activists will settle for nothing else than a wholesale discussion of the subcontinent where almost everything is on the table. I think at this point the Indian royal elite will have to give up their reactionary ways and come to the table as well.

Cheers,
Ganesha

I would expect India would be there as its own delegation, even if there's an unofficial Congress delegation.

 

[Ganesha]

I would expect India would be there as its own delegation, even if there's an unofficial Congress delegation.

I think Jonathan already said that they were - but there was no mention, and I don't think there'd be much discussion of India, either. In my view, it wouldn't be viewed as an international issue - no fighting took place there involving the war directly, and Britain's problems are its own.

Cheers,
Ganesha

 

[Badshah]

I think Jonathan already said that they were - but there was no mention, and I don't think there'd be much discussion of India, either. In my view, it wouldn't be viewed as an international issue - no fighting took place there involving the war directly, and Britain's problems are its own.

Cheers,
Ganesha

That's completely true.

Question: is the apparatus of French Indochina kept with the British, or is the responsibility for the new territories left to the Raj?

 

[Ganesha]

That's completely true.

Question: is the apparatus of French Indochina kept with the British, or is the responsibility for the new territories left to the Raj?

I'd expect that the British will keep Indochina separately administered. They were already uncomfortable with the idea of incorporating Burma into India and as you know ultimately split Burma off in 1937. The British will probably create a new structure and maintain much of the French-speaking elite there to smooth the transition.

Even if Raj troops were instrumental in the conquest of SE Asia, the British wouldn't trust them to run the colony - I think it would be seen as putting too many eggs in one basket.

Cheers,
Ganesha

 

[Ridwan Asher]

Also, Falecius is correct that there may never be a unified Indonesian nationalism

I don't know about that. Western education was a potent force in detaching pribumi participants from their traditional roots, rendering them often having more in common with fellow educated natives from other ethnicities then with their own people back home. That was how our common identity was concepted. A unified identity is an inevitability with Ethical Policy. Does it have to be violently opposed, or even aimed to divorce from Netherlands ? Here we have calls for independent East Indies before even East Indians themselves decided they want it, and a colonial overlord forced to pursue that end before their own colonial subjects even started demanding it. What does it mean ? Does it mean East Indian identity and state will be initiated by Netherlands ?

Frankly what they did was unintentionally half way there already IOTL. And now with them having not much choice, they might as well use it to their ends. Besides East Indies is just too big and the Dutch can't exactly grant East Indians suffrage in The Hague unless they want to swap roles. And this will keep East Indies part of the domains under the reign of Netherlands Royalty.

And that is all still consistent with the basic Westphalian breakdown premise. Do I see what you did there, Jonathan ?

 

[Admiral Matt]

What a great read. Like reading 1919, so many years ago, but without the sense of morbid fascination.

It's nice the Poles didn't have to invade revolutionary Russia. Not yet at least.

Those peasants in China are going to change things - they'll be separated from the Qing ruling class not just in the obvious social and economic barriers, but also ethnic and religious ones. And then there are the Chinese generals who fought in Korea, most smart enough not to accept invitations home without knowing how they'll retain a military command. The Emperor has an uphill struggle ahead. But that's fair enough; so do his people.

 

[Plumber]

Well, I picked the right day to catch up This is a truly sublime timeline, I must say. Here comes the twentieth century!

 

[wannis]

The Russian Church in TTL (as in OTL) had a nasty caesaro-papist strain under the Tsars, and while the peasant revolutionaries love their village priests, they don't have much time for the Patriarch in St. Petersburg.

So the patriarchy is restored, as IOTL 1918? I would have thought that a revamping of the Most Holy Synod as a more grassroots, representative organ would be more in the spirit of the new regime. But this opens some questions:
1) IOTL, the Bolsheviks introduced official separation of Church and State, leaving the Orthodox Church without official backing, but enabling it to re-establish the Patriarchate. While Tolstoy is not a follower of official Orthodoxy, does he go as far as disestablishing the Orthodox Church?
2) If he doesn't, what will be the exact relation between the new Russian government and the church?
3) BTW, is Russia a republic (presidential or parliamentary?), or a monarchy with a vacant throne, or is its status left open, with everybody content with having Tolstoy as vozhd for the time being?

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

FKK, Freikörperkultur = naturism, a movement that advocates sports, hiking, etc in the nude.

For any unilingual anglophones out there.

 

[Maltaran]

Why do the Greeks get Thessalonica and Crete?

IIRC it was their price for remaining neutral - there's an update from the beginning of the war where they negotiate it with the Ottomans.

 

[Scientist Shan]

Interesting update.

In installament 86 (post 1393) you gave us another academic update from:

Peter Moller
The Great War: Causes and Origins

which gave details of the aims and prepardeness of the various powers.

Now I'm believe Peter Moller wrote another book in which he described the reactions within the various powers to the result of the Great War.

Could you be so kind as to reprint the relevant chapter?

 

[galileo-034]

# About the Duchy of Alsace-Lorraine, what is the succession law?
I ask that because I wonder if there is the possibility that the duchy be inherited by people of the Hohenzollern family who is not King of Prussia. I imagine the possibility of a revision of the Imperial succession and regency law of 1856, which barred women from the throne, which could be a good mean to create the possibility of removing an invasive vassal and could officially be part of a reform aiming at giving more rights to women. France, and especially Verne, could be tempted to enact reforms for the rights of women.
Remember that Empress Eugenie lived IOTL until 1920 and that she was feminist; she was responsible, along Victor Duruy, for the acceptation of women being admitted at the Baccalauréat exam.

It leads me to another question about the extent of autonomy of the Duchy. The facts of the Duchy being under French law and having its own constitution are contradictory as there could be contradictions between the two texts. The only kind of autonomy I could imagine is the Region, an administrative unit recently created in France and which have their own assemblies (Conseils Régionaux) with enlarged fiscal and cultural autonomy, especially in Corsica and oversea departments.

# I have also questions as to the involvement of the Princes in politics, not only the Imperial family. I mean the collateral branches of the dynasty, the Lucien branch (virulent Republicans)or the illegitimate sons of Napoleon III (Arthur Hugenschmidt being the more notorious, the man Empress Eugénie said '' you look so much like him [the OTL Imperial Prince]).
I think also to the Counts Colonna-Walewski, direct descendants of Napoleon I, who could as member of the Polish nobility be involved in the politics of the resurrected Poland.
The link for informations on their filiation: http://www.walewski.org/filiation.htm
There is also the status of the TTL daughters of Napoleon III.

 

[Scientist Shan]

How about some sort of Tuareg independence / autonomy?

 

[Daztur]

HIV spreading widely this early?