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I think it's pretty well-established that NATO can take the Russians, coming or going, in any scenario where anyone survives. But, for mysterious reasons of my own, I want a scenario where the Warsaw Pact in, say, 1983, really is the unstoppable juggernaut it was generally portrayed as. Not Red Dawn, paratroopers-in-Colorado unstoppable, but enough to be the favorite in any conventional fight with the West. And I want to do it without a leftist-president-who-cares-more-about-the-poor-than-tanks, because they're a) overused and b) ridiculous. Here's my plan:

1. Later Vietnam: And it's probably not in Vietnam, too. (Any suggestions as to where?) Let's say early to mid 70s, with the economic problems, morale problems, change-over from a conscript to a volunteer army, and general sense of American disability and malaise lasting well into the 1980s.
2. Worse Economic Problems: As a result of #1, the American president of the time-I haven't decided who, and it doesn't really matter-tries to use Keynesian stimulation to revitalize the economy. Since the economic problems are the result of inflation caused by too much government spending, this only makes things worse. It's starting to pass by the early 1980s, but the US wouldn't fully recover until the late 80s.
3. Return to the Tripwire Doctrine: As a result of #1 and #2, the US military decides that it can have 250,000 men in western Europe, or 1,000 Minuteman missiles, but not both. This leads to a readoption of the tripwire strategy of the 1950s. US Army presence in western Europe is reduced to a token, just enough to make US involvement in a European land war inevitable. There is no M-1 tank, no snazzy new ATGMs, no A-10. Research funding instead is directed to improving warhead accuracy, getting the SAFEGUARD ABM system to work, and various other toys of no real use in a land war. Europe will be defended by massive nuclear retaliation in the event of any Soviet incursion.

If necessary, I've got two other things I can throw into the mix:

4. Worse Oil Shock: Either instead of or in addition to the revolution in Iran, Saudi Arabia descends into civil war. The Gulf States are drawn in. The Oil Shock is deeper and lasts for years.
5. The Soviets Get More in World War II: Just how much more, I don't know. This might actually be more of a hurt than a help; the COMECON countries were military and political assets, but economic liabilities.

I'd rather avoid #4 and #5, though; this TL may already have too many PoDs, and I know even less about Saudi Arabia than I do about the Soviet Union.
There's still the western European armies, who are pretty formidable even without the US. But if they think the US is going to start dropping nukes the moment the Russians cross the border, they may not worry too much about their own conventional armies. There's also the Warsaw Pact morale problems, but I've got a causus belli that should take care of that. So, is it enough?
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