Make your alternate Seven Years War

POD: 1753. Barbara of Portugal, Queen of Spain is seriously ill, and expected to die. OTL, she recovers. TTL, she dies. King Ferdinand VI, is seriously distraught to the point of being incapacitated, as he was OTL several years later when Barbara died. In '54, he abdicates in favor of his half brother Carlos III. Carlos is rabidly anti British. he immediately sets about rebuilding his navy as Britain is his main enemy, and they are in an undeclared war with France. 7YW starts with Prussia's invasion of Saxony. France takes Minorca and offers it to Spain if Spain joins on her side. Carlos agrees, and invades Portugal in '57. Portugal is still reeling from the massive earthquake in '55, and is quickly over run. Portugal is forced to join with France and Spain, or face annihilation. their combined fleet are enough to compete with Britain's. Unable to rule the seas, Britain is unable to prevent France from reinforcing New France. Spain sends troops to Florida to invade northward through Georgia. Spain's early entrance into the war puts Britain on the losing side (OTL, it was evenly matched until 1759's year of miracles). In Europe, Prussia needed miracles upon miracles to have a chance, OTL, and it was truly miraculous that they emerged as they did. Here, the boost of Spanish entry, even though Spain was far from being a top notch world power, alters the miracles, and reality kicks in for the overly ambitious Frederick.

Outcome: France rules North America, making gains in Rupert's Land and Maine, while setting the border at OTL's '63 line of proclamation. India is status quo ante bellum.
Spain regains Minorca, and trades it's gains in North America for Gibraltar.
Portugal is reinstated for minor alterations in South America.
Austria regains Silesia.
Poland takes east Prussia, in return for giving Courland to Russia.


A bit optimistic for the French coalition, but not completely outlandish.
 
The Miracle of the House of Brandenburg does not happen and Prussia is crushed by an invasion in the autumn of 1759 (POD). France, Austria and Russia now launch a three-way invasion of Hanover in April 1760 that overwhelms the Hanoverian forces and the British relief force that arrives late in the campaign. By the end of May, the war in Germany is over. Spain, smelling blood in the water, declares war on the now isolated British in June and beseiges Gibraltar.

George II, still on the British throne, urges the British government to enter peace negotiations to get back his homeland. These negotiations begin in Paris in August.

George II dies in October, before the negotiations are finished, but the British negotiating position has already been set: Hanover is to be returned, along with Minorca, however possible. In addition, they badly want a quick peace deal as they do not want to fight alone against a massive coalition - they are disheartened to learn that their longtime ally, Portugal, has declined to enter the war.

In the peace, Britain makes minor gains in the Caribbean (Dominica and Saint Vincent) and India (two trading posts), and is returned Minorca, while George III gains Hanover in his possession. Gibraltar remains British as the Spanish did not conquer it. To the chagrin of the British/American public, North America and most of India return to the status quo ante bellum. Even George III is displeased as he cared far less for Hanover than his grandfather. There is great discontent with the government. In America the peace is known as the "betrayal of 1760".

Prussia regains its freedom by ceding Silesia to Austria and East Prussia to Russia, while also paying an indemnity. Poland gains nothing and is angered.

Spain gains and loses nothing as it was not in the war long enough. The Spanish had not wanted to sign peace just yet, but France (as usual running out of money) had urged them to do so.

France makes no gains but avoids disaster after the terrible year of 1759. There are murmurings of discontent over exchanging a conquered German territory for "a few acres of snow".

Russia feels like it could have gained more, but nevertheless has confirmed its status as a great power.

Austria is the most content, having conquered Silesia.

It is a tense peace and everyone expects renewed hostilities in a few years. The British, convinced that the Prussian alliance was a waste, begin to try a rapprochement with Austria, whom they see as in the ascendant.
 
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POD: 1759 following the Third treaty of Versailles (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Versailles_(1758)) and the Swedish intervention, Augustus III dies. France, Austria and Russia noting the thorough and utter ineptitude of the House of Saxony in both Saxony and Poland-Lithuania, support the 62 year old Count of Ourem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infante_Manuel,_Count_of_Ourém) as their chosen candidate. Additionally, they motivate the Sejm upon his coronation to join the alliance declaring war on Brandenburg-Prussia.

The PLC, Austria, Russia and Sweden conclude the Treaty of Warsaw to not conclude a peace with Brandenburg-Prussia separately with the following war goals;

  • The Kingdom of Prussia is to be returned to the PLC.
  • Sweden would regain parts of Pomerania lost in 1720, and territories east of the Slupia/Stolpe river.
  • PLC yields overlordship of Courland to Russia and this would be recognised by Sweden, Austria & the PLC. Prince Peter of Holstein-Gottorp is elected duke of Courland.
  • Austria would gain Silesia and the Rhenish provinces of Brandenburg. The PLC would return Spiz to the Kingdom of Hungary (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lubowla).
  • Madgeburg & Cottbus would be separated from Brandenurg. Cottbus would be given to the Elector of Saxony, Madgeburg set up as a Free city under HRE administration or as seconditure (can't find/forgot how to spell the word, but I mean for the second son a la Austria and Tuscany) for the Saxon electorate to compensate for the loss of PLC.
  • King Manuel of the PLC weds the 23 year old Maria Elisabeth of Saxony (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Elisabeth_of_Saxony_(1736–1818))
The Franco-British side of things continue as OTL, but things are worse for B-Prussia. The PLC launches a spirited campaign with their new allies, Sweden & the PLC co-ordinate and take Further Pomerania. Russia with better supply lines (and news supplies from the PLC itself + Austria) and Austria take Silesia in late 1759/1760. Joint armies of the four allies move and secure all of Neumark then march on Berlin, meanwhile news spread of Prussian defeats resulting in uprisings in Prussian-occupied parts of Saxony, Prussian forces withdraw. In the summer 1761, Berlin falls and Kottbus is occupied.

The eastern bloc sends word to make peace with the broken Frederick as now former neutral states in the Empire begin sharpening their knives to knock him down a peg. The writing seemingly on the wall, the Eastern alliance makes puts forth offers for peace while still actively campaigning. Frederick is forced into battle at Postdam and captured. In the winter of 1761 (November) the eastern makes peace with the broken elector of brandenburg (The Great Icarus, his new sobriquet) in accordance with the Treaty of Warsaw. France accedes to the Treaty of Warsaw in exchange for monetary compensation from Prussia and removing all it's officers and troops from Anglo-Hanoverian service.

Austria moves to take possession of her newly acquired territories in the Rhine area continuing to allow French access via her territories to Hanover. Spain enters the War in 1762 in accordance to the Bourbon family compact, and we end with the same as situation in the wider world area between GBR & France.

Ivan VI is freed from captivity by the Russian nobility due to distate for Peter of Holstein-Gottorp, Ivan VI becomes a puppet Tsar to under the control of Vasily Dolgorukov-Krymsky (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Dolgorukov-Krymsky) marrying his daughter (https://www.geni.com/people/Евдокия-Васильевна-Грушецкая/6000000004391653320).
 
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POD: 1759 following the Third treaty of Versailles (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Versailles_(1758)) and the Swedish intervention, Augustus III dies. France, Austria and Russia noting the thorough and utter ineptitude of the House of Saxony in both Saxony and Poland-Lithuania, support the 62 year old Count of Ourem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infante_Manuel,_Count_of_Ourém) as their chosen candidate. Additionally, they motivate the Sejm upon his coronation to join the alliance declaring war on Brandenburg-Prussia.

The PLC, Austria, Russia and Sweden conclude the Treaty of Warsaw to not conclude a peace with Brandenburg-Prussia separately with the following war goals;

  • The Kingdom of Prussia is to be returned to the PLC.
  • Sweden would regain parts of Pomerania lost in 1720, and territories east of the Slupia/Stolpe river.
  • PLC yields overlordship of Courland to Russia and this would be recognised by Sweden, Austria & the PLC. Prince Peter of Holstein-Gottorp is elected duke of Courland.
  • Austria would gain Silesia and the Rhenish provinces of Brandenburg. The PLC would return Spiz to the Kingdom of Hungary (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lubowla).
  • Madgeburg & Cottbus would be separated from Brandenurg. Cottbus would be given to the Elector of Saxony, Madgeburg set up as a Free city under HRE administration or as seconditure (can't find/forgot how to spell the word, but I mean for the second son a la Austria and Tuscany) for the Saxon electorate to compensate for the loss of PLC.
  • King Manuel of the PLC weds the 23 year old Maria Elisabeth of Saxony (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Elisabeth_of_Saxony_(1736–1818))
The Franco-British side of things continue as OTL, but things are worse for B-Prussia. The PLC launches a spirited campaign with their new allies, Sweden & the PLC co-ordinate and take Further Pomerania. Russia with better supply lines (and news supplies from the PLC itself + Austria) and Austria take Silesia in late 1759/1760. Joint armies of the four allies move and secure all of Neumark then march on Berlin, meanwhile news spread of Prussian defeats resulting in uprisings in Prussian-occupied parts of Saxony, Prussian forces withdraw. In the summer 1761, Berlin falls and Kottbus is occupied.

The eastern bloc sends word to make peace with the broken Frederick as now former neutral states in the Empire begin sharpening their knives to knock him down a peg. The writing seemingly on the wall, the Eastern alliance makes puts forth offers for peace while still actively campaigning. Frederick is forced into battle at Postdam and captured. In the winter of 1761 (November) the eastern makes peace with the broken elector of brandenburg (The Great Icarus, his new sobriquet) in accordance with the Treaty of Warsaw. France accedes to the Treaty of Warsaw in exchange for monetary compensation from Prussia and removing all it's officers and troops from Anglo-Hanoverian service.

Austria moves to take possession of her newly acquired territories in the Rhine area continuing to allow French access via her territories to Hanover. Spain enters the War in 1762 in accordance to the Bourbon family compact, and we end with the same as situation in the wider world area between GBR & France.

Ivan VI is freed from captivity by the Russian nobility due to distate for Peter of Holstein-Gottorp, Ivan VI becomes a puppet Tsar to under the control of Vasily Dolgorukov-Krymsky (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Dolgorukov-Krymsky) marrying his daughter (https://www.geni.com/people/Евдокия-Васильевна-Грушецкая/6000000004391653320).

A Russian Civil War maybe..? I like it.
 
How realistic is it for the PLC to survive after the war?

On that if Russia has a civil war with a noble regent for an somewhat mental Tsar, she'll be too busy at least for a while to meddle in PLC affairs. Brandenburg is broken and so we've lost the main driver for the partitions.

I'm envisioning to keep alive a PLC strong enough to defend itself but no power projection into the HRE (focus on maybe the baltic & Crimea). Russia is busy with its civil war, overall I'd prefer Ivan VI and his supporters to win (he really got a raw deal, kind of feel bad for him and his siblings) Eventually, he prevails and we have a Welf-Romanov house.

Peter and Catherine stay in Courland and Russia doesn't bother with it, Sweden takes advantage of this and signs a treaty with Peter (whose been spurned by Russia and his authority in Courland is basically shot) to take over Courland in exchange for support in regaining Holstein from Denmark. PLC focuses on her internal structure, the Braganzcas' have kids and establish a new dynasty in the PLC and avoid the whole Sweden in Courland stuff. Austria is ascendant and Maria Theresa continues her reforms.
 
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