Make Wrangel's capture of Moscow end the Russian Civil War

In the fall of 1919, Pyotr Wrangel, the general of a White Russian army launched an offensive to capture Moscow from Bolsheviks as they were too busy fighting Alexander Kolchak in Siberia. But in our real timeline, it got repelled and he was pushed back. Can someone come up with a good realistic scenario of how Anton Denikin successfully captures Moscow and causes the end of the whole Russian Civil War for the Bolsheviks? And what happens after the defeat of the Reds?
 
Last edited:
I know, I made a thread similar thread, but it didn't cover the details of how the Whites won so hence is why I made this post.
 
In the fall of 1919, Anton Denikin, the general of a White Russian army launched an offensive to capture Moscow from Bolsheviks as they were too busy fighting Alexander Kolchak in Siberia. But in our real timeline, it got repelled and he was pushed back. Can someone come up with a good realistic scenario of how Anton Denikin successfully captures Moscow causes the end of the whole Russian Civil War for the Bolsheviks? And what happens after the defeat of the Reds?

Somebody would have had to have taken Petrograd beforehand and have the Bolshevik leadership congregated in Moscow. I imagine the best way to do this would be to have BL result in France agreeing to a cease-fire on the Western Front and allowing for a stronger German intervention in the Finnish Civil War; resulting in not only a quicker and more complete White victory, but enough influence for Germany in post-war Finland for them to push for a move on Red Russia. If this is timed with Denikin's push from the south and Polish pressure, it could overload the Soviets in a four-front war to the point the Red Army cracks.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Somebody would have had to have taken Petrograd beforehand and have the Bolshevik leadership congregated in Moscow. I imagine the best way to do this would be to have BL result in France agreeing to a cease-fire on the Western Front and allowing for a stronger German intervention in the Finnish Civil War; resulting in not only a quicker and more complete White victory, but enough influence for Germany in post-war Finland for them to push for a move on Red Russia. If this is timed with Denikin's push from the south and Polish pressure, it could overload the Soviets in a four-front war to the point the Red Army cracks.
I think you meant German pressure. This is a German victory scenario, is it not?
 
I think you meant German pressure. This is a German victory scenario, is it not?

Victory in the east, yes. Negotiated peace in the West. And i say Polish because I don't think Germany is likely to want to get itself directly tied down and get to demoralizing and retooling the economy back to civilian production asap in such a scenario. In that case, the Legions and Royal Polish army alongside eastern voliteers are likely going to be incentives to do the dirty work with the promise the Kingdom will get to keep territory it seizes from the Reds
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Victory in the east, yes. Negotiated peace in the West. And i say Polish because I don't think Germany is likely to want to get itself directly tied down and get to demoralizing and retooling the economy back to civilian production asap in such a scenario. In that case, the Legions and Royal Polish army alongside eastern voliteers are likely going to be incentives to do the dirty work with the promise the Kingdom will get to keep territory it seizes from the Reds
Would Germany actually allow Polish eastern expansion? The various German victory scenario maps all suggest Germany wanted a border no further east than the Curzon line.
 
Last edited:
Would Germany actually allow Polish eastern expansion? The various German victory scenario maps all suggest Germany wanted a border no further east than the Curzon line.

As a compromise I think the Kaiser having obtained most of his goals would throw a bone to Poland

^ This, plus this is only a half-victory scenario, not a France Prostrate one. You need a negotiated peace in the West in order for Germany to restore enough order in the east fast and complete enough for three to be the kind of coherence needed to overwhelm the Reds in 1919, which means long term she has to give more consideration to keeping her new clients happy. Add that to the fact that anything that weakens Russia helps lower the risk if a repeat Franco-Russian encirclement, and I think Berlin would accept a kind further east
 
^ This, plus this is only a half-victory scenario, not a France Prostrate one. You need a negotiated peace in the West in order for Germany to restore enough order in the east fast and complete enough for three to be the kind of coherence needed to overwhelm the Reds in 1919, which means long term she has to give more consideration to keeping her new clients happy. Add that to the fact that anything that weakens Russia helps lower the risk if a repeat Franco-Russian encirclement, and I think Berlin would accept a kind further east
Even if Germany's loss in WW1 goes as OTL, an alliance of convenience between Pilsudski and the Whites could allow for a white victory. Part of the reason the Whites lost is because they refused to moderate their claims over Russia's 1914 borders, with the possible exception of Congress Poland. The Poles formed an enemy of my enemy alliance for the reason. The creation of the the first non-Russian SSRs in Belarus and Ukraine were only created as proxies against an independent Belarus+Ukraine/or autonomous cantons within Poland. A great source on the disputes over Kresy and the wider dynamics at play is Jerzy Borzecki's The Soviet Polish Peace of 1921 and the Creation of Interwar Europe. I came across in my university's library.
 
So Wrangel and Denikin capture Moscow. Obviously this is a massive blow to the Bolsheviks. Let's say the Whites manage to make a deal with the Poles, Wrangel's obession with restoring the Russian royal family will rear it's head. After that it's really a question of another POD whether Wrangel succeeds in taking Petrograd or not, if he does I guess restored, weakened Romanov Russia is guaranteed, if he doesn't: weakened Soviet Russia I.E. Without Belarus and Ukraine?
 
So Wrangel and Denikin capture Moscow. Obviously this is a massive blow to the Bolsheviks. Let's say the Whites manage to make a deal with the Poles, Wrangel's obession with restoring the Russian royal family will rear it's head. After that it's really a question of another POD whether Wrangel succeeds in taking Petrograd or not, if he does I guess restored, weakened Romanov Russia is guaranteed, if he doesn't: weakened Soviet Russia I.E. Without Belarus and Ukraine?
Could the Russian monarchy manage to survive in Belarus?
 
Could the Russian monarchy manage to survive in Belarus?
Likely; Belarus had always been strongly integrated into Greater Russia, see Belarussian nationalism not really taking off and the majority of the population speaking Russian. If you mean the Romanovs surviving solely in Belarus then no. Belarus was too small of a powerbase to survive for them; depending on circumstances they would've been absorbed by the communists or Germans.
 
So Wrangel and Denikin capture Moscow. Obviously this is a massive blow to the Bolsheviks. Let's say the Whites manage to make a deal with the Poles, Wrangel's obession with restoring the Russian royal family will rear it's head. After that it's really a question of another POD whether Wrangel succeeds in taking Petrograd or not, if he does I guess restored, weakened Romanov Russia is guaranteed, if he doesn't: weakened Soviet Russia I.E. Without Belarus and Ukraine?
Yudenich attempted to take Petrograd in October 1919, a month before Wrangel started offensive towards Moscow, but it got repulsed because they couldn't take control of the railroad that led from Moscow which allowed the Red Army to send reinforcements. Not to mention General Mannerheim, asked the president of Finland, Ståhlberg, to join Yudenich's force and attack Petrograd with help from the Finnish White Guards. But he refused to help because Kolchak didn't recognize the independence of Finland. Do you think if Kolchak chose to recognize Finland which convinced Ståhlberg to send support it would've helped Yudenich to capture Petrograd?
 
Last edited:
Victory in the east, yes. Negotiated peace in the West. And i say Polish because I don't think Germany is likely to want to get itself directly tied down and get to demoralizing and retooling the economy back to civilian production asap in such a scenario. In that case, the Legions and Royal Polish army alongside eastern voliteers are likely going to be incentives to do the dirty work with the promise the Kingdom will get to keep territory it seizes from the Reds
How about a timeline where the Germans still sign an armistice in 1918?
 
Yudenich attempted to take Petrograd in October 1919, a month before Wrangel started offensive towards Moscow, but it got repulsed because they couldn't take control of the railroad that led from Moscow which allowed the Red Army to send reinforcements. Not to mention General Mannerheim, asked the president of Finland, Ståhlberg, to join Yudenich's force and attack Petrograd with help from the Finnish White Guards. But he refused to help because Kolchak didn't recognize the independence of Finland. Do you think if Kolchak chose to recognize Finland which convinced Ståhlberg to send support it would've helped Yudenich to capture Petrograd?

Technically, in 1919 you should call it "the Finnish Army" instead of "the Finnish White Guards". This is what the Finnish military called itself after the civil war, and it was unequivocally the only national-level military force in Finland, and one authorized by a Finnish government that was both de facto and de jure in control of the Finnish national area to boot.

(In fact one can argue that "the Finnish White Guards" was never the right term for the Finnish Whites in the civil war, even, unless you want to use the Red side's terminology. The Whites called their individual units literally "protection guards" (suojeluskunta) or "order guards" (järjestyskaarti) before the civil war, and during it the entire force "the Finnish White Army" [Suomen valkoinen armeija]. They were generally only known as "the Whites". There has actually been a single military unit with a name translatable to "the Finnish White Guard" [Suomen valkoinen kaarti] but it functioned as a part of the Finnish Army after the civil war from 1918 to 1939.)

As for Ståhlberg, and the rest of the political leadership, I don't believe Kolchak promising to recognize Finland would have been enough. The issue was not only the lack of recognition by the Russian Whites, it was the conditions prevailing in Finland in general. Finland was weak after the civil war and still suffered from food shortages and instability. The trade routes across the Baltic were still strewn with mines and trade was difficult. There was still various damage from the war, and there were prison camps with thousands of Reds imprisoned around the country. This was not a nation ready to support a large scale attack against Petrograd, one that would have needed the entire military, such as it was, to be mobilized to make any headway against the Russian capital. Very likely such an attack would lead to unnecessary suffering for the Finnish people and nation, for unlikely gains. This was why the top politicians were against Mannerheim's plans.
 
Last edited:
How about a timeline where the Germans still sign an armistice in 1918?

Than its a timeline where the White Finns can't have taken Petrograd, meaning its borderline ASB for there to be the concentration of leadership in Moscow and impact on Red moral required for the (potentially only temporary) lose of Moscow to cause a sudden Bolshevik collapse. They'd continue the war from Petrograd.
 
Technically, in 1919 you should call it "the Finnish Army" instead of "the Finnish White Guards". This is what the Finnish military called itself after the civil war, and it was unequivocally the only national-level military force in Finland, and one authorized by a Finnish government that was both de facto and de jure in control of the Finnish national area to boot.

(In fact one can argue that "the Finnish White Guards" was never the right term for the Finnish Whites in the civil war, even, unless you want to use the Red side's terminology. The Whites called their individual units literally "protection guards" (suojeluskunta) or "order guards" (järjestyskaarti) before the civil war, and during it the entire force "the Finnish White Army" [Suomen valkoinen armeija]. They were generally only known as "the Whites". There has actually been a single military unit with a name translatable to "the Finnish White Guard" [Suomen valkoinen kaarti] but it functioned as a part of the Finnish Army after the civil war from 1918 to 1939.)

As for Ståhlberg, and the rest of the political leadership, I don't believe Kolchak promising to recognize Finland would have been enough. The issue was not only the lack of recognition by the Russian Whites, it was the conditions prevailing in Finland in general. Finland was weak after the civil war and still suffered from food shortages and instability. The trade routes across the Baltic were still strewn with mines and trade was difficult. There was still various damage from the war, and there were prison camps with thousands of Reds imprisoned around the country. This was not a nation ready to support a large scale attack against Petrograd, one that would have needed the entire military, such as it was, to be mobilized to make any headway against the Russian capital. Very likely such an attack would lead to unnecessary suffering for the Finnish people and nation, for unlikely gains. This was why the top politicians were against Mannerheim's plans.

What if an Anglo-French force landed in Finland to help out?
 
What if an Anglo-French force landed in Finland to help out?

If they bring along enough troops and supply to be of real assistance (to take up the brunt of the attack), and simultaneously offer concrete, major political and material support to Finland in different ways, then I believe the Finnish politicians could be persuaded to accept Mannerheim's plans. There would still be opposition, but the idea of strong Anglo-French support for the Finnish state might be used to overcome that.

IOTL, the matter was dependent on the developments of the Finnish political system at the time as well, what with the adoption of the new republican constitution that didn't give the president the right to declare war without the consent of the parliament in July 1919, and the fact that Mannerheim lost the presidential election in parliament to Ståhlberg.

So you'd need to either secure Anglo-French support and kick off the war before the new constitution is adopted and Mannerheim has to bow out as Regent, or then if these developments have happened, prepare to be ready to expend a lot of effort to convince whoever won the first presidential election in the parliament, as well as the leading parliamentary parties as for the necessity and benefits of the war. Even if Mannerheim uses his (rather vaguely defined) powers as Regent to kick off the war, then having some sort of consensus for support among the leading political groups in Finland would be quite helpful. Without this kind of support, Finland is likely to try to withdraw from the war as soon as the first news of heavy Finnish losses reach Helsinki, with the leading politicians calling the war "Mannerheim's folly" and declaring that they will have nothing to do with it.
 
From a reading of Evan Mawdsley's *The Russian Civil War* it is not clear to me that Wrangel would have done any better than Denikin:

"As regards Denikin's strategy in the south, two distinct and partly contradictory criticisms have been made: first, that he advanced in too many directions; and second, that he moved too quickly. The Moscow Directive of early July both set a daring objective *and* proposed an advance by widely spread armies. Baron Vrangel, Denikin's successor and one of his main critics, called the Moscow Directive "the death sentence of the South Russian armies" and stressed the dispersal of effort: "Striving for space, we endlessly stretched ourselves into a spider's web, and wanting to hold on to everything and to be everywhere strong we were everywhere weak." Denikin defended the spread and pace of his attack by saying that the normal laws of strategy did not apply to civil war. "We lengthened the front by hundreds of versts and became from this not weaker, but stronger." In south Russia the offensive took grain, military supplies, and manpower from the Reds and gave them to the Whites. At the time even Trotsky saw the situation much as Denikin did: on the Donets and in the Ukraine, "we left Denikin complete freedom of action, and gave him the chance to obtain a huge reservoir of new formations."18

"Vrangel had a counterplan. In July he questioned the order to march his Caucasus Army north through the Volga region. Instead, the bulk of Caucasus Army, "a major cavalry mass of three or four corps," should be transferred to Kharkov, between Don Army and Volunteer Army. This concentration in the center of the AFSR front might just have brought Moscow's capture. (Denikin's response, according to Vrangel, was "Aha, you want to be first in Moscow.") Kakurin, the Soviet military historian, felt this to have been the best plan, and Lehovich, Denikin's biographer, saw it as the point where history might have been changed. Denikin himself, however, later claimed that he rejected Vrangel's plan because Tsaritsyn had to be held to protect Rostov, and it is hard to see how such a transfer could have been effected in the face of Shorin's August offensive.19 In addition, shifting a large force 400 miles from Tsaritsyn to Kharkov would have been difficult. Vrangel's July 1919 proposal shows that he at least could not fairly make the other main criticism of AFSR strategy-—that Denikin moved too quickly; the involvement of Vrangel's cavalry would have led to an even more precipitate lunge. "To Moscow!" became the motto of the southern Whites from July, and the September—October advance on the Soviet capital ended in disaster. But in Moscow Denikin did find a goal, both symbolic and concrete, for his troops. Certainly this was what the army wanted; Denikin admitted that he had been optimistic in July, but so had the whole army leadership—"the Cassandras were silent." The rapid occupation of territory kept a larger enemy army off balance. "Our strength," Denikin recalled, "lay in the upsurge (*pod'em*) brought about by victory, in maneuver, and in the momentum of the advance."

"Denikin made several important misjudgments. He did not realize how poorly consolidated his rear was, and he saw Soviet power as unpopular and unstable, ready to break under pressure. But had he (correctly) assumed effective Bolshevik consolidation he would have been even more justified in attacking, because time was not on his side; every passing week let the Reds shift more combat veterans from the Siberian front and raise fresh formations from their huge territory. The Moscow offensive failed, but that does not mean that another strategy would have succeeded. The Red Army historian Kakurin believed that Denikin's best chance would have been the earliest possible attack on Moscow..."

https://books.google.com/books?id=yBDFwj6Ya1wC&pg=PT294

Mawdsley also notes the supply problem which I can't see either Denikin or Wrangel solving:

"The rear of the AFSR, however, was its real military Achilles heel. Even the best organized army, had it been in the AFSR's position, would have had trouble with its supplies. In October 1919 the leading White units were 400 miles north , the nearest supply port (Taganrog), and 600 miles from their bases in the Kuban. The railways suffered from neglect and war damage, and the fleeing Reds had taken rnuch of the rolling stock with them. But on top of this the AFSR supply organization, and the rear in general, were in a very poor state. Vrangel in December 1919 gave two reasons for White failure, faulty strategy and "the absolute disorder of our rear. The British Mission complained of .an entire absence of what we understand by good q[uartermaster] work and administrative efficiency.23

"Administrative inefficiency and poor supply lines made the advancing whites rely on *samnosnabzhenie* (self-supply). The requisitioning of supplies from the local people often degenerated into looting, with extra booty being shipped to rear bases (further disrupting the railways). "Self-supply was used to reward success, as Mai-Maevsky told Vrangel: "If you demand of officers and soldiers that they be ascetics, then they won't fight." ("Your Excellency, in such a case what would be difference between us and the Bolsheviks, asked Vrangel. "Well," came the reply, "the Bolsheviks *are* winning." "Self-supply" led the Volunteer Army (known by its Russian abbreviation as Dobrarmiia) to be nicknamed "Grab'armila" or "Looter Army" by its victims. In September Denikin wrote to Mai-Maevsky that he had learned from his supply officers of .this gloomy picture of grandiose looting and plunder, the bacchanalia of arbitrary rule, which reigns unchecked in the whole front-line zone.". 24 Denikin, then, was aware of the problem, and its bad impact on public opinion and the troops themselves, but he could apparently do nothing about it."

https://books.google.com/books?id=yBDFwj6Ya1wC&pg=PT297
 
Top