Make Venice last.

birdboy2000

Banned
Could Venice do better in the Italian Wars, grabbing a dominant position in northern Italy? Admittedly, it wouldn't be the same merchant republic we all know and love, but this could give it the population base it needs.
 
I don't really see how a Venetian Suez is that implausible. They certainly had the wealth to build it at one time, and they could have used manpower from conquered areas around the Sinai peninsula.


The type of canal you're proposing is definitely beyond Venice's technical and financial abilities. Is was even beyond the technical and financial abilities of the Pharaohs, Ptolemys, Romans, or Arabs and they not only had secure control the region for centuries but had much more resources to throw at such a project.

IIRC, de Lesseps needed a daily workforce of around 25,000 and that despite having steam-powered drags, excavators, railways, and the like. Also, IIRC, the French effort ultimately involved about a million people over a period of more than ten years.

The Pharaohs and Ptolmeys managed to construct a number of Nile-to-Red Sea "barge" style canals, but changes to the course of the river and changes to the Red Sea coastline eventually made even those relatively small projects not worth their upkeep. And the reason those canals weren't worth their upkeep was that caravans between points the Pharaohs and Ptolmeys controlled could do the same job.

Though a conquered Sinai could also mean, perhaps preferentially, a land based route over the Sinai to a naval base on the Red Sea and have a merchant fleet waiting, like Axeman said. I'm quite liking that idea.

I think that's the more probable course. Even a Nile-to-Red Sea canals I mentioned earlier would be difficult given the need to control Egypt let alone the changes to the course of the river and the coastline of the sea.

Another point to remember is that the trade route Venice will be plugging into is seasonal. The monsoons drive the tempo of the trade across the Indian Ocean and the winds needed to sail "up" the Red Sea are seasonal too.

If Venice could control the Sinai enough to allow caravans to cross - and that's a very big if, sadly - they'd only need to protect inbound and outbound caravans for certain periods each year. If Venice could seize or construct fortified points along the trans-Sinai caravan route, they may able to get along by dispatching a yearly "surge" to clear and control the entire route long enough for that year's caravans to cross. Think of it as a land convoy system of sorts.
 
Spitballing here, but when you look at it the way I'm doing it, a Red Sea route to the east seems a lot more feasbile than an Africa route for a power like Venice. Might they even gain support against the Mameluks? Or Turks? When was Egypt taken by the Ottomans anyway?

The Ottomans took out the Mamluks in 1517l. Before that the last Mamluk sultans had been pretty tight with the Venetians, and no coincidentally owed them mounds of gold. If there was a feasible plan, I don't think a new Suez canal would be complete ASB. However, the Mamluks, even in their weakened state would never give up territory to Christians, their entire legitimacy came from being seen as guardians of the Levant against the Christians. So the Ventians might gain access to the Red Sea, but they would probably not control it, allowing the hated Genoese and others to take advantage of the new routes East.

Oh, and the Ottomans would still take Egypt barring major military reforms on the part of the Mamluks, making the maintenance of the Ottoman Empire considerably easier, and allowing them to tax a vast amount of trade passing through the nifty canal they would inherit.
 
Might there be a way for Venice to create an early Suez?

Perhaps the Mamluks are successful in breaking away from the Ottomans, and redig either the Ptolemaic or Tāriqu canal, leading to the Mediterranean/Red Seas - Indian Ocean route becoming re-opened and the fastest way to acquire East Asian goods and raw materials. Egypt was in a state of constant low-grade anarchy from the time of Ottoman conquest in 1517 until well into the 1660s. There were times when the entire province was, literally, going up in smoke as the various factions burned the grain fields as a scorched earth area-denial tactic. At several points the Ottomans almost lost Egypt IOTL. Simply have luckier/smarter Mamluks, worse-off Ottomans, or European intervention and its a done deal.

Venice would be well-positioned to take advantage of such a route, and as such would likely support the new Mamluk regime in order to keep the route open.
 
Last edited:
Perhaps the Mamluks are successful in breaking away from the Ottomans, and redig either the Ptolemaic or Tāriqu canal, leading to the Mediterranean/Red Seas - Indian Ocean route becoming re-opened and the fastest way to acquire East Asian goods and raw materials. Egypt was in a state of constant low-grade anarchy from the time of Ottoman conquest in 1517 until well into the 1660s. There were times when the entire province was, literally, going up in smoke as the various factions burned the grain fields as a scorched earth area-denial tactic. At several points the Ottomans almost lost Egypt IOTL. Simply have luckier/smarter Mamluks, worse-off Ottomans, or European intervention and its a done deal.

Venice would be well-positioned to take advantage of such a route, and as such would likely support the new Mamluk regime in order to keep the route open.

Yes but that's a tempoary situation, Venice can't compete against nation-states. They may be able to control it for a dozen decades or so but what is to prevent a land-based nation state from seizing it?

Besides eventually trade actually shifted north of the Levant due to portugese disruption in the Indian Ocean (and eventual take over and the various other ocean-faring nations in the West)。
 
The Ottomans took out the Mamluks in 1517l. Before that the last Mamluk sultans had been pretty tight with the Venetians, and no coincidentally owed them mounds of gold. If there was a feasible plan, I don't think a new Suez canal would be complete ASB. However, the Mamluks, even in their weakened state would never give up territory to Christians, their entire legitimacy came from being seen as guardians of the Levant against the Christians. So the Ventians might gain access to the Red Sea, but they would probably not control it, allowing the hated Genoese and others to take advantage of the new routes East.

Oh, and the Ottomans would still take Egypt barring major military reforms on the part of the Mamluks, making the maintenance of the Ottoman Empire considerably easier, and allowing them to tax a vast amount of trade passing through the nifty canal they would inherit.

Venice had a very good relationship with the Mameluks, and plans to revive the old Pharaonic canal were made IOTL around 1470 or so. At the same time Venice was also making advances to the Safavids of Persia and was trying to organise an anti-Ottoman alliance in the east.
IOTL Venice was too distracted by the Italian wars to pursue the eastern strategy in full: ITTL they may be less greedy in Italy, and recognise that the destiny of Venice is on the seas and in commerce.

IMHO a Persian-Egyptian-Venetian alliance might be successful in keeping the Ottomans out of Egypt.
 
Wait a minute. In all the timelines proposed in all the years of the AH site, doesn't anyone wonder WI the Venetians cover their bets of holding trade to the East--by going West too?

Specifically--get control of Gibraltar and whatever point of land on the south side of the Strait is best for a seapower to hold--would that be Tangier?

This is in aid of Venetian traders seeking trade links to Northwest Europe--England, France, the Low Countries.

In the course of doing this--this is a side venture from their point of view after all, their efforts are still mainly as OTL on securing the Eastern trade--they eventually do a little exploring down the African coast, find one or more of the sets of obscure Atlantic islands--Canaries, Madeira, Azores--perhaps pick up on rumors of lands to the West from Northern Europeans....

The point being, either they preempt Portugal, Spain, or both, or at any rate are in a position to cut themselves in on the America trade when some European rediscovers America and makes it stick.

"Venezuela" might be literally a "New Venice" then?

You are discounting the difficulty of oceanic travel. The Ventians are used to sailing the Mediterranean or staying close to the shores of Atlantic Europe. Galleys and cogs are fine for such voyages. It is much, much different than sailing in the Atlantic.

You have to learn to navigate accurately without seeing land. This requires advances in astronomy, technical improvements for the astrolabe & caravel, improved mapmaking to avoid the dangers of passing Cape Bojador and other area, figuring out how to avoid or pass the doldrums, and simply asking yourself why you want to sail into the unknown for little benefit (as Venice already controls a profitable trade).

This is important. The eastern trade route through Egypt is old and known and profitable. Going around Africa to do the same thing is expensive. And no one knows the Americas are out there to exploit. It's just thousands of miles of empty ocean that can't be crossed until the crews of the ships starve or die of thirst.

The Atlantic powers, especially Portugal and Spain, have the geographic incentive to work on this. Venice doesn't. Portugal and Spain also slowly expanded their bases, so that every voyage they could go a little further. Venice will need those bases too.

And you can't simply say Venice will do so. It will mean constant war with Spain and/or Portugal. If Venice seizes Gibraltar, how long can it hold onto it in the face of Spain? That means Venetian wealth and power will need to be consumed in wars with Spain at the same time it will keep fighting the Ottomans, plus whatever European power decides to take it down like France, the Holy Roman Empire, or other Italian powers. Venice had to fight such a coaltion during the War of League of Cambrai just after the discoveries of the New World.

Venice is already punching above its weight. It has to take on one or more great powers if it seeks to expand its holdings, whether its Egypt to control the Red Sea, Spain and Portugal in the western Mediterranean, or France, Germany, and the Papal State in northern Italy. With lots of luck and concentrating on one objective, it might pull it off. Unlikely, but starnger things have happened.

But going west has a lot of disadvantages and is probably the least likely to happen.
 
Top