Make the Ottoman Empire survive up to the present-day

What is a good realistic scenario where the Ottoman Empire with its land from 1914 pre-World War I manages to survive up into the present-day world? What would its politics and impact on the world be today? Which countries would have good or bad relations with the Ottomans? Would Israel still be formed somehow?
 
Have the Ottomans remain neutral in the First World War and then join in when it looks as if the Entente is winning.


1. Enver and Djemal play the Game of Thrones and the later comes out on top, using his influence to slowly cozy up to the British and French as the war goes on and allowing Russian commerce to flow into and out of the Black Sea. Likely as not, this would become a target for German and Austrian commerce warfare based out of the Adriatic in an effort to undermine Russian logistics, which could spark an international incident that allows the Ottoman government to enter the war with popular support. Alternatively, Bulgaria or Greece is brought into the CP with promises of Thrace in an effort to shut the door by land-based interdiction (Actually probably better from the Ottoman perspective, since they could press for the construction of railways with Entente funds along the coast with the stated goal of insuring the continued flow of goods and the supplying of defences, which post-war could be repurposed into an industrial corridor).
 
Neutral Ottomans seem the best bet, yes. However, once decolonization kicks off, they will have conflict on their Arab territories. While the circumstances were different, I expect Arab nationalism to rise up eventually. And European powers will no doubt inflame nationalist sentiments.

If they manage to keep Arabia one way or the other, they will be swimming in oil.
 
Neutral Ottomans seem the best bet, yes. However, once decolonization kicks off, they will have conflict on their Arab territories. While the circumstances were different, I expect Arab nationalism to rise up eventually. And European powers will no doubt inflame nationalist sentiments.

If they manage to keep Arabia one way or the other, they will be swimming in oil.
The Ottomans have to options after coming out uninvolved in the First World War. One is to cultivate Turkishness and lose most of the remaining Arab lands. The other is to embrace Islamism in a bid to put themselves at the center of global Sunni Islamic leadership, retain the Arab areas, and perhaps regain some of the lands under British "protection" in the medium to long term. The latter course seems likelier.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Have the Ottomans remain neutral in the First World War and then join in when it looks as if the Entente is winning.
This choice ...

I'll put in the words of someone who achieved his master in history with this theme :
" ..., but neutrality would have only put off
for the moment further partition at the hands of the Entente."​
 
This choice ...

I'll put in the words of someone who achieved his master in history with this theme :
" ..., but neutrality would have only put off
for the moment further partition at the hands of the Entente."​

You'd need a scenario in which Russia still buckles under/gets crippled. Even better if they still flip Red. In that case, the Ottomans make a useful bulwark against Communism long enough for them to pull off effective consolidation/reform
 
You'd need a scenario in which Russia still buckles under/gets crippled. Even better if they still flip Red. In that case, the Ottomans make a useful bulwark against Communism long enough for them to pull off effective consolidation/reform
Having the Turkish Straits remain open to the Russians and no Caucasian front makes it a bit difficult to have Russia buckle, though. And a surviving, victorious Tsardom is going to effectively turn the Ottomans into a protectorate.
 
Having the Turkish Straits remain open to the Russians and no Caucasian front makes it a bit difficult to have Russia buckle, though. And a surviving, victorious Tsardom is going to effectively turn the Ottomans into a protectorate.
A protectorate that does exist, though.
 
A protectorate that does exist, though.
The PLC was effectively a Russian protectorate too. All it takes is some tension between Russia and its rivals (this time being Britain and France in the aftermath of WWI), expansionary pressure that cannot relieve itself without excessive bloodshed, a semi-neutral party to propose a partition (Italy, let's say) and the protectorate gets chopped up and portioned out. The Ottomans had already been cut up by the Congress of Berlin (which entailed similar factors as the above) so future partitions would become more and more likely, with the Ottomans lacking a dedicated patron and the rest of the easily acquired lands of Africa and Asia mostly claimed. I'd wager it'd be like Treaty of Sevres in installments over the course of a few decades.
 
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