Make the Eastern BLoc survive with market reforms

Yeah... another challenge for you, my dear historians.:) Sorry if this topic was touched before.

The goal is of course to make the USSR and the Warsaw Pact to survive as an independent political bloc until today. My bet for the best way to do that is by making USSR institute a limited market reform at some point between early 1960s and late 1970s - first by allowing limited private owneship in agriculture and light industry and later expanding these but with heavy state involvement in heavy industries - a China-like gradual reform approach.

Would such a reform be possible?
 

Deleted member 1487

I doubt it given the vast economic problems that caused them to even consider market reforms in the first place; the USSR went with autarky to avoid dependence on external market forces, while PRC had a different idea of what was their niche earlier on and had less ideological issues with working with foreign markets, hence the opening to America in the 1970s; they decided to transition to cheap manufacturing using what amounted to virtual slave labor to produce exports, as they didn't have major commodities to coast on like the Soviets did (which has always been Russia's primary export). The Soviet bloc was alright until the oil/raw material market drops out from under them and started forcing reforms on the whole Eastern bloc. The serious issue is to get the Soviets themselves to allow the market reforms of their bloc, but ideology and pride kept them from considering that as an option until it was too late.
 
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=294203

It's the Year of the Three Secretaries by Onkel Willie. There are minor tweaks: Unlike in the TL, have Erich Honecker die somewhere from 1976 onwards in a plane crash (with the cause found not to be Western Intervention but some sort of mechanical failure or such, because otherwise a casus belli arises), and for Ceausescu to be assassinated somewhere in the 1970s and for Kania in Poland to stay in power, and then the other Eastern Bloc states follow.

Paramount Leaders ATL:

1964-68: Leonid Brezhnev
1968-1969: Arvids Pelse (More like Mikhail Suslov)
1970-1980: Alexei Kosygin
1980-84: Yuri Andropov
1984-1998: Mikhail Gorbachev
1998-201?: Alexander Lukashenko
201?-?: Vladimir Putin?

It's great. I suggest you read it.
 
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Would such a reform be possible?

Possible yes, but difficult. For example, the difficulty of privatizing the collectives in the USSR was that the collectives were considered a fundamental part of Marxist-Leninism, so for the Soviets to reform that would basically be seen as admitting they were wrong, with disastrous consequences for the Soviet party.

So any reform in the USSR itself would need to increase the reality of farmer-initiative and reward for their own efforts, but maintain the illusion of a happy collective-dominated system.

Similar problems existed in all the various communist systems in different industries and areas of society. They'd all thought themselves into a corner.

fasquardon
 
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