Make the 1936 Literaru Digest poll the correct prediction
- Thread starter Lothal
- Start date
The reason the *Literary Digest* poll--which had been pretty accurate in prior elections--failed in 1936 is often oversimplified. It is usually pointed out that by limiting itself to voters who had telephones or automobiles it missed the "have not" voters of 1936 who contributed heavily to FDR's victory. But as the *Digest*'s editors pointed out in their postmortem, (a) FDR's victory margin was too great to be explainable solely by his support from the poorest voters, and (b) in some places like Allentown, Pennsylvania, the *Digest*'s postcards reached *every* registered voter--and the returns *still* showed Landon ahead! Thus, the *Digest*'s failure was not caused solely by a sample biased toward the upper class. The other reason the poll failed was differential response--people who wanted Landon elected were much more likely to return the postcards than FDR voters. See Pervil Squire, "Why the 1936 Literary Digeest Poll Failed," Public Opinion Quarterly 52 (1988) 125-133. https://engineering.purdue.edu/~ipo...6_Literary_Digest_Poll_Failed_Squire_1988.pdf
Squire, using data from a 1937 Gallup survey which asked about participation in the *Literary Digest* poll, concludes that if all those who were polled by the *Digest* had responded, the magazine would at least have predicted FDR's re-election, though it would have greatly underestimated his margin of victory.
As for Landon winning, I don't see that as remotely possible even if Huey Long had lived and been a candidate. What people sometimes forget is the *huge* (if short-lived) economic recovery that took place in 1936. GDP grew 13.1 percent that year! http://tippie.uiowa.edu/economics/tow/papers/hausman-fall2012.pdf
Squire, using data from a 1937 Gallup survey which asked about participation in the *Literary Digest* poll, concludes that if all those who were polled by the *Digest* had responded, the magazine would at least have predicted FDR's re-election, though it would have greatly underestimated his margin of victory.
As for Landon winning, I don't see that as remotely possible even if Huey Long had lived and been a candidate. What people sometimes forget is the *huge* (if short-lived) economic recovery that took place in 1936. GDP grew 13.1 percent that year! http://tippie.uiowa.edu/economics/tow/papers/hausman-fall2012.pdf
