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Another what-if suggested by Sir Winston's History of the English Speaking Peoples, which is full of hypothetical asides. During the 1763 negotiations to end the Seven Years' War against France:

"In the West Indies the richest prize of the war, the sugar island of Guadeloupe, was also handded back, together with Martinique, Belle Isle, and St Lucia. Guadaloupe was so rich that the English Government even considered keeping it and in exchange returning Canada to the French."

To keep things a little more even, let's say that Great Britain's negotiators decided to hold on to Guadeloupe and Martinique, handing back St. Lucia and Canada. Within a few years, it would become clear that a pair of rum-producing islands, though profitable, were no match for half a continent.

So. French Canada. The first changes on the horizon would be the Six Nations of the Iroquois, who found themselves in a quite favorable position between friendly Brits and French who no longer were interested in linking their colony with the Mississippi valley. The British colonists were no doubt still hungry for their land, but they now could switch sides and ally with the French if need be.

Next: the unpleasantness surrounding taxation in America. French Canada would not necessarily butterfly those away, but the British Government could use continued presence of an enemy colony colony to justify a policy of closer control in the colonies. Maybe all this would accomplish woud be to make things come to a head faster. A revolution in, say, 1770?

The war. Totally different dynamic here. Even more so than OTL, it would be seen as Chapter 9,436 of the Neverending Franco-British Global Struggle. France would have an immediate stake in the outcome of the rebellion and may not wait to give aid to the colonists against Britain.

Finally, the Loyalists. No Loyal British Canada to flee to anymore. England or Nova Scotia, I suppose, unless Nova Scotia falls to the French.
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