Assyria isn't really the best place to form the base for a long-lasting power. It's between other traditionally powerful regions, and lacks the nice defensive geography of Asia Minor - which was made into a very significant powerbase by the Romans (hence the survival of the Eastern Roman Empire).
If you want a neo-neo-Assyrian Empire, though, one maybe could imagine a timeline in which a strong Assyrian warlord is able to exploit the weakening of Eastern Roman Empire and the Sassanid Empire that was caused by their brutal wars against one another. If this sounds familiar, it is because this is how the Arabs conquered much of the Middle East and Persia.
There is a difference. The Arabian peninsula is both larger than the Syriac world both in Sassanid and Byzantine dominions and has a higher populace. To say that the Assyrian highlands by this point is at the same power as Arabia is not accurate in my opinion. Even sections of Arabia are more equipped for warfare than Assyria and Osroene; Yemen for example.
let's go with the Nestorian assyrian warlord theory
Let's say that the romans, after losing at the Yamourk, they manage to make a last stand battle at sinai and win, with both sides being horribly damaged, and the sassanids fall into civil war, and in this situation, a warlord in assyria decides to make his empire, could he buy support from the byzantines? He could say that he's christian so he can cooperate with the byzantines against both the arabians and the sassanids
If the Byzantines win Yarmouk, or even avoid it for several years allowing Heraclius to build up the Syrian defenses to their prewar levels, it's a bit easier to justify this IMO.
Byzantium needs to be strong to establish rule over Mesopotamia. Mesopotamia will never become Greek, so it doesn't matter how long they hold it, whether its a decade or centuries. The Assyrians can always break off later.
It wouldn't be too hard to get the allegiance of the Kurds if the Byzantines welcome exiled Sassanid and otherwise Iranian nobles, like Theophobos (who was from the Armenian highlands, so perhaps Kurdish).Yea, this may be the best way to do this. Have the Byzantines defeat the Arabs, then begin to pick up the pieces in the absence of Sassanid power in Iraq to create a Syriac state there. This state would have to appeal to the Kurds mind you to actually put up a fight on its own against remaining Arabs in al-Hira and with incursions from remaining Sassanid loyalists in Iran.
It wouldn't be too hard to get the allegiance of the Kurds if the Byzantines welcome exiled Sassanid and otherwise Iranian nobles, like Theophobos (who was from the Armenian highlands, so perhaps Kurdish).
Yes, however, that was at a later period and Nusayr was not the most loyal subject. After, the loss of Amorium he committed treason against the Empire.
Though, the Kurds would be an effective fighting force especially if they are christianized. A Syriac ruling class and a Kurdish-Armenian warrior class and peasantry.
But I remember reading somewhere that the kurds were hostile towards nestorians, is that true?
In a way this speaks to the development of the Syriacs as a people during the times since the fall of Assyria. They almost developed into a people without the will to fight or one simply bereft of them, a people of scholars and merchants. Typically, this breeds fertile grounds for mercenary use as seen in Carthage and Italy, but that is difficult when there is none to hire, especially when Islam creates a hegemony in the region. Syriacs over the years had been greatly weakened and their failure to remove Achaemenid power was perhaps their last chance to create anything beyond a client state of the East or West. By the Abbasid period, Syriacs did not even posses a militia of note and when the Khawarij attacked and assaulted their strongholds, the Arab guards deserted and the Syriacs where defenseless and where utterly massacred and subjugated. It took the Abbasid army to finally push the Khawarij from the area and to stop the Kurdish looting. This sort of weakness is why I doubt the Syriacs can make a truly powerful state; a vassal rump state of the Byzantines that perhaps makes use of Kurds and Armenians and hopefully, Khazar and other types of mercenary to fight the Caliphate assuming Yazid takes power as otl.
In a way this speaks to the development of the Syriacs as a people during the times since the fall of Assyria. They almost developed into a people without the will to fight or one simply bereft of them, a people of scholars and merchants. Typically, this breeds fertile grounds for mercenary use as seen in Carthage and Italy, but that is difficult when there is none to hire, especially when Islam creates a hegemony in the region. Syriacs over the years had been greatly weakened and their failure to remove Achaemenid power was perhaps their last chance to create anything beyond a client state of the East or West. By the Abbasid period, Syriacs did not even posses a militia of note and when the Khawarij attacked and assaulted their strongholds, the Arab guards deserted and the Syriacs where defenseless and where utterly massacred and subjugated. It took the Abbasid army to finally push the Khawarij from the area and to stop the Kurdish looting. This sort of weakness is why I doubt the Syriacs can make a truly powerful state; a vassal rump state of the Byzantines that perhaps makes use of Kurds and Armenians and hopefully, Khazar and other types of mercenary to fight the Caliphate assuming Yazid takes power as otl.
Assyrians were the main heavy infantry component of the Achaemenid military and were even employed in the second invasion of Greece. They were still fighters, long after Cyrus and the two failed revolts.Syriacs over the years had been greatly weakened and their failure to remove Achaemenid power was perhaps their last chance to create anything beyond a client state of the East or West.
Not this again.
We both know the Syriacs, at least the non-Muslim ones would be Dhimmi and therefore cannot form an armed force. Combine that with the fact that their home wasn't united, was either owned by one of two major powers that would not tolerate (and generally crush) any Syriac rebellion/armed force that ever emerged, and it isn't a surprise that they wouldn't create an army in a flash.
They need to be in a position where they can, and have to, be self-reliant in some manner. (Hence my scenario).
People without the will to fight or bereft my left wrist - it was a people that was a minority in the locale (much like they are now, and modern Kurds). Give them the need, circumstance, and resources, and any people can form a state.
I apologise that this comes across harsh (it isn't meant to), but it ignores circumstance and sounds a hell of a lot like "Martial Races" theory.