Make Afghanistan Prosperous

[Brahman]

Afghanistan is one of the, if not the most unfortunate country since the end of World War 2, It has been devastated in a 40+ year war that shows no signs of stopping, But is there a way this fate can be avoided and above that, Afghanistan can Prosper ?

Can Afghanistan be, In any world, be prosperous, in a sense that it has respectable levels of HDI, GDP, Per Capita, etc., being religiously more liberal and most importantly having little to no conflict ?

 

[Lalli]

Best way is avoid ousting of monarchy. Then you would avoid decades lasted warring. Not sure how prosperous surviving Kingdom of Afghanistan would be but it would be in better situation than OTL.

 

[jsb]

Can it do better than OTL, yes of course but its still landlocked mountains so catching up to Turkey or Thailand is hard....?

From wiki 2020 estimates, GPD per capita nominal $
72 Turkey 7,715
76 Thailand 7,295
181 Afghanistan 499

I will add for comparison,
116 Bhutan 3,431
122 Bolivia 3,322
145 Uzbekistan 1,763
154 Pakistan 1,285
157 Nepal 1,116
166 Tajikistan 834

I don't see them doing better than Bhutan or Bolivia, but that's still far better than OTL? Unless you screw Turkey or Thailand but both arguably could be doing better than they are anyway easier than improving Afghanistan?

OK I could add,
2 Switzerland 81,867.......... not ASB after all it was once considered a relatively pore part of Europe only a couple of hundred years ago?

 

[Brahman]

Best way is avoid ousting of monarchy. Then you would avoid decades lasted warring. Not sure how prosperous surviving Kingdom of Afghanistan would be but it would be in better situation than OTL.

Was the Coup by Kings cousin an aberration or would it have happened anyway, because from what it seems it happened to to lack of Pashtun Favoritism by the king as he treated all the subjects of all races and ethnicities equally, which made many Pashtun leaders angry, allowing for the Coup to occur in the first place

 

[Brahman]

Can it do better than OTL, yes of course but its still landlocked mountains so catching up to Turkey or Thailand is hard....?

From wiki 2020 estimates, GPD per capita nominal $
72 Turkey 7,715
76 Thailand 7,295
181 Afghanistan 499

I will add for comparison,
116 Bhutan 3,431
122 Bolivia 3,322
145 Uzbekistan 1,763
154 Pakistan 1,285
157 Nepal 1,116
166 Tajikistan 834

I don't see them doing better than Bhutan or Bolivia, but that's still far better than OTL? Unless you screw Turkey or Thailand but both arguably could be doing better than they are anyway easier than improving Afghanistan?

Actually you are right, I gave Afghanistan a high target, but it was intentional to see how far Afghanistan could go, could it atleast reach 4k - 5k gdp per capita ?

 

[Lalli]

Can it do better than OTL, yes of course but its still landlocked mountains so catching up to Turkey or Thailand is hard....?

From wiki 2020 estimates, GPD per capita nominal $
72 Turkey 7,715
76 Thailand 7,295
181 Afghanistan 499

I will add for comparison,
116 Bhutan 3,431
122 Bolivia 3,322
145 Uzbekistan 1,763
154 Pakistan 1,285
157 Nepal 1,116
166 Tajikistan 834

I don't see them doing better than Bhutan or Bolivia, but that's still far better than OTL? Unless you screw Turkey or Thailand but both arguably could be doing better than they are anyway easier than improving Afghanistan?

Switzerland, Austria and probably Liechtenstein and Luxembourg too might want tell something about economics of landlocked nation. Ok, surely Afghanistan can't reach Switzerland or Austria but not reason why it couldn't be better than Bhutan or Bolivia. Afghanistan has much of nature reserves which about foreign nations are really intrested.

But problem might be local tribes who tend be really backward, conservative and quiet xenophobic.

 

[Brahman]

Switzerland, Austria and probably Liechtenstein and Luxembourg too might want tell something about economics of landlocked nation. Ok, surely Afghanistan can't reach Switzerland or Austria but not reason why it couldn't be better than Bhutan or Bolivia. Afghanistan has much of nature reserves which about foreign nations are really intrested.

But problem might be local tribes who tend be really backward, conservative and quiet xenophobic.

Plus Afghanistan also has the trouble of being in one really dangerous neighborhood, especially compared to land locked countries in Europe

 

[Brahman]

Can Afghanistan prosper with its OTL borders or would it need more land, like Baluchistan for ocean access ?

 

[Hcira1]

Can Afghanistan prosper with its OTL borders or would it need more land, like Baluchistan for ocean access ?

Regardless of if Afghanistan has ocean access on a map, the mountains in the heart of the country and also in between the population centers and the coast make it functionally landlocked regardless. Having ocean access when looking at a map is irrelevant if you still can't actually have widespread access the ocean for practical purposes.

 

[jsb]

Having ocean access when looking at a map is irrelevant if you still can't actually have widespread access the ocean for practical purposes.

Not sure whether they could relatively easily drive a road or even a railway to a coast? It's worse than being on a coast but far better than actually being landlocked?

Plus Afghanistan also has the trouble of being in one really dangerous neighborhood, especially compared to land locked countries in Europe

But did Switzerland not get rich in a Europe that included two world wars, it requires luck and skilled diplomacy but not sure Afghan's neighbourhood was worse in 14-18 or 39-45?

 

[sampleswift]

Afghanistan's geography also hurts it because all the mountains make it hard for an army (whether British, Soviet, American, or even Afghan) to control. It is very easy for an insurgent group to avoid getting caught.
This makes violence worse and prosperity chances lower.

 

[Worffan101]

Theoretically, yeah, but you need a strong internal reform movement that isn't obviously the puppets of a foreign power. A huge problem OTL is that Afghanistan's been used for proxy warfare ever since the Soviets started eyeing the region, which has left the main credible resistance the Taliban, who have not coincidentally adopted a lot of elements of Pashto nationalism, but are also arch-reactionaries.

So maybe have the Anglo-Afghani wars be less damaging to the state organization? Just enough to spark a Meiji-style national consolidation and buildup movement.

 

[Osman Aga]

Afghanistan is one of the, if not the most unfortunate country since the end of World War 2, It has been devastated in a 40+ year war that shows no signs of stopping, But is there a way this fate can be avoided and above that, Afghanistan can Prosper ?

Can Afghanistan be, In any world, be prosperous, in a sense that it has respectable levels of HDI, GDP, Per Capita, etc., being religiously more liberal and most importantly having little to no conflict ?

Avoid a Communist takeover. A monarchist/republican Afghanistan prevents the Soviet invasion which I consider as good. No religious organizations taking over while the Middle Class, secular leaning population remains.

Afghanistan remains either like Iraqi Kurdistan levels or Turkey at best. But it will still be more religious than Turkey. It may be underestimated but avoiding an Islamic Revolution in Iran is also a plus.

 

[HelloThere]

Two possibilities: Either the monarchy will be preserved and the country will slowly but steadily modernize itself. Or the Soviet Union and its allied republic win the war against the mujahideen and become a regime like Syria before the civil war (prosperous, secular, but with a secret police fighting against the Islamists).

 

[Arkenfolm]

Can Afghanistan prosper with its OTL borders or would it need more land, like Baluchistan for ocean access ?

Much more than OTL. There are suspected to be many quality mineral deposits in Afghanistan which are poorly or entirely unexplored thanks to the conflict. A peaceful Afghanistan will obviously do better at exploiting them. Notably, Afghanistan is suspected to have huge reserves of lithium, so depending on how fast technology progresses then Afghanistan will become a major exporter. It still will likely fall into the resource curse, but that's better than OTL's result where it's a country synonymous with war and violent extremists.

 

[Brahman]

Regardless of if Afghanistan has ocean access on a map, the mountains in the heart of the country and also in between the population centers and the coast make it functionally landlocked regardless. Having ocean access when looking at a map is irrelevant if you still can't actually have widespread access the ocean for practical purposes.

This seems to be a recurring argument that is bought up, does the Hindu Kush really make Afghanistan as internally divided as people make it out to be ?

 

[Brahman]

But did Switzerland not get rich in a Europe that included two world wars, it requires luck and skilled diplomacy but not sure Afghan's neighbourhood was worse in 14-18 or 39-45?

Switzerland has really good geography compared to Afghanistan, which as mentioned before has formidable mountains like hindu kush but they are only in few areas and not all of the nation like Switzerland, Switzerland is also really small, as such it can be ignored while Afghanistan sits at the middle of Trade routes and is the only access to such routes

 

[Brahman]

Afghanistan's geography also hurts it because all the mountains make it hard for an army (whether British, Soviet, American, or even Afghan) to control. It is very easy for an insurgent group to avoid getting caught.
This makes violence worse and prosperity chances lower.

Considering these circumstances, could Afghanistan being divided be better off ?

 

[Brahman]

Theoretically, yeah, but you need a strong internal reform movement that isn't obviously the puppets of a foreign power. A huge problem OTL is that Afghanistan's been used for proxy warfare ever since the Soviets started eyeing the region, which has left the main credible resistance the Taliban, who have not coincidentally adopted a lot of elements of Pashto nationalism, but are also arch-reactionaries.

So maybe have the Anglo-Afghani wars be less damaging to the state organization? Just enough to spark a Meiji-style national consolidation and buildup movement.

This is after 1900s, so only the Third Anglo Afghan war can occur, perhaps British is able to Annex all of Afghanistan and when Afghanistan gets independence, it can have much stronger institutional power ?

 

[Brahman]

Two possibilities: Either the monarchy will be preserved and the country will slowly but steadily modernize itself. Or the Soviet Union and its allied republic win the war against the mujahideen and become a regime like Syria before the civil war (prosperous, secular, but with a secret police fighting against the Islamists).

Could an Afghan SSR being incorporated into USSR be much better of than in OTL, I think this is a really good ATL, as its the most sure fire way to make Afghanistan atleast somewhat developed