Make Afghanistan Prosperous

[Brahman]

Depends on when the SSR is established. I doubt the British would tolerate the Soviets exerting influence over Afghanistan in the 1920s.

Assuming it happened in 30s to 40s, British will be powerless to stop them really

 

[HelloThere]

Or even better. The Soviets realize that overthrowing Daoud Khan would be a terrible idea and allow him to remain in power. The rebellion against Communist rule only began after the Soviets murdered Daoud Khan and established a puppet regime.

I agree that the Soviets hurt themselves by establishing a puppet regime, but I still think the Afghan republic would have to deal with an Islamist insurgency equipped by Pakistan. Even today without a secular regime Pakistan is still equipping the Taliban.

 

[HelloThere]

True, but Daoud Khan's regime had good relations with the US, Saudi Arabia, Iran and India, mostly because unlike the puppet regime the Soviets established, Daoud Khan strenuously stuck to keeping Afghanistan neutral in the Cold War. If Pakistan did attempt to incite a Islamist insurgency in Afghanistan, I doubt it'd be as strong as the one backed by the US under Operation Cyclone.

I'm not so sure about it. Pakistan would try to incite tribal and religious uprisings and even without major backing today the Taliban hold a good chunk of the country.

 

[jsb]

Switzerland has really good geography compared to Afghanistan, which as mentioned before has formidable mountains like hindu kush but they are only in few areas and not all of the nation like Switzerland, Switzerland is also really small, as such it can be ignored while Afghanistan sits at the middle of Trade routes and is the only access to such routes

I somewhat disagree, Switzerland was the poor part of Europe with its different hill tribes all with different sects of religions that hired out as mercenaries to the larger powers of Europe and distance is relative as travel speeds have gone up massively in the last 200 years. Size wise Switzerland is not smaller relative to say France/Austria/Germany than Afghan is to India/China/USSR?

I think Switzerland was just lucky and skilled in that it found a way to agree to join its differences in its government system and then avoided outside invasion for more than a century? And was near a rich part of the world with good trade links as well.....

Assuming it happened in 30s to 40s, British will be powerless to stop them really

In 30s GB simply talks to Germany and Japan about how much they dislike USSR and starts plotting about allying together to defeat the communist menace, if its pre-WWII, if its after then they talk to the USA and the independent parts of India/Pakistan......?

 

[Brahman]

I somewhat disagree, Switzerland was the poor part of Europe with its different hill tribes all with different sects of religions that hired out as mercenaries to the larger powers of Europe and distance is relative as travel speeds have gone up massively in the last 200 years. Size wise Switzerland is not smaller relative to say France/Austria/Germany than Afghan is to India/China/USSR?

I think Switzerland was just lucky and skilled in that it found a way to agree to join its differences in its government system and then avoided outside invasion for more than a century? And was near a rich part of the world with good trade links as well.....

When you put it like that, it does seem to appear that Switzerland was really both skilled and lucky in being neutral, but Afghanistan has again two more disadvantages over Switzerland

1. It was Historically much more active in expansion in subcontinent, Iran and Central asia compared to Switzerland, which was essentially non existent in comparison
2. Afghanistan was essential in trade routes and it cannot be bypassed, whereas Switzerland can be bypassed in most of trade routes

In 30s GB simply talks to Germany and Japan about how much they dislike USSR and starts plotting about allying together to defeat the communist menace, if its pre-WWII, if its after then they talk to the USA and the independent parts of India/Pakistan......?

So perhaps in 20s under Stalin ?

 

[jsb]

So perhaps in 20s under Stalin ?

After the Russian civil war, no 20s is worse the problem is that GB will get a coalition of allies against any serious Soviet invasion as it can sell it as the anti-communist crusade, so it would be very stupid for USSR to attack and end up in a war v most of Europe and Japan etc

When you put it like that, it does seem to appear that Switzerland was really both skilled and lucky in being neutral, but Afghanistan has again two more disadvantages over Switzerland

1. It was Historically much more active in expansion in subcontinent, Iran and Central asia compared to Switzerland, which was essentially non existent in comparison
2. Afghanistan was essential in trade routes and it cannot be bypassed, whereas Switzerland can be bypassed in most of trade routes

Not sure the trade routes are that much more important than the ones ins Switzerland just look at the WWII negotiations to use the railway passes and most trade is anyway taken by boat or rail due to weight?

 

[ArtosStark]

In regards to Switzerland it might be pertinent to point out that her neutrality was in large part protected by her strategic position. Switzerland and Belgium were both key areas of strategic access between France and the HRE/NGC/Germany. Switzerland also doubled as a route between France and Italy and Austria, and between Italy and Germany. Once Napoleon was defeated there was a vested interest in most of the Great Powers in keeping both nations neutral as a buffer between each other. This was agreed to by multiple powers and written into the nations constitution. With their independence as close to guaranteed as diplomatic efforts could ever make it they could focus on building a modern society and economy. Which was greatly aided by just being in Europe, and even more from having close access to most of the great European powers.

Afghanistan, on the other hand, was, in modern times, mostly the playground of two Great Powers, Britain and Russia. And that sort of maintained its independence as neither quite wanted to start a war with the other, but both were mistrustful of the other and willing to push into Afghanistan to keep the other out (Britain especially in this regard). With British influence in the region gone it was now the US and USSR who were involved, with smaller local powers having their own reasons to intervene (Iran and Pakistan). Overall it is not as stable of a situation.

Give Afghanistan as stable of a neutrality guarantee, as good access to technological and economic transfer and 1.5-2 centuries and they could probably match Switzerland economic development. Otherwise you may want to set your sights lower.

 

[Osman Aga]

Two possibilities: Either the monarchy will be preserved and the country will slowly but steadily modernize itself. Or the Soviet Union and its allied republic win the war against the mujahideen and become a regime like Syria before the civil war (prosperous, secular, but with a secret police fighting against the Islamists).

You seem like Syria is an acceptable place. Their regime caused the Civil War initially, as the Mukhabarat did mot only target islamists. Not sure why people consider Syria as a good example.

In Afghanistan, the Pashtun Tribes will be far more hostile against the Soviet-Communist Afghan alliance. How is Kabul going to consolidate power when they don't control the tribes? Winning the war (if that's possible at all) does not help the Pashtun Tribes to remain content. Especially with Pakistani aid.

Any Assad style dictatorship by the Communists will be despised by far more militaristic Pashtun tribes. Not the good option to have a prosperous State when the people will cause trouble.

 

[jsb]

Afghanistan, on the other hand, was, in modern times, mostly the playground of two Great Powers, Britain and Russia. And that sort of maintained its independence as neither quite wanted to start a war with the other, but both were mistrustful of the other and willing to push into Afghanistan to keep the other out (Britain especially in this regard). With British influence in the region gone it was now the US and USSR who were involved, with smaller local powers having their own reasons to intervene (Iran and Pakistan). Overall it is not as stable of a situation.

Give Afghanistan as stable of a neutrality guarantee, as good access to technological and economic transfer and 1.5-2 centuries and they could probably match Switzerland economic development. Otherwise you may want to set your sights lower.

What about a united post independence India, they might want to have a buffer against USSR but also not be that hostile to USSR or totally US aligned, so USSR thinks its worth agreeing to a buffer to keep the Indians in the none aligned monument and not moving towards the USA for defence? A united India also will not want to support radical Islamic militias as its trying to keep its different parts together?

This is unlikely to result in Switzerland levels of economic development, but they might get 60 years of peace and maybe a railway from USSR to India for trade?

 

[Unkown00]

Something people tend to forget is that Afghanistan was actually pretty friendly towards Nazi Germany (The Germans assisted them with trade and infrastructure) Assuming the Germans somehow won WW2 (let's just go with Thousand Week Reich levels of Victory) could it have made them in a better situation then they are today?

 

[Brahman]

After the Russian civil war, no 20s is worse the problem is that GB will get a coalition of allies against any serious Soviet invasion as it can sell it as the anti-communist crusade, so it would be very stupid for USSR to attack and end up in a war v most of Europe and Japan etc

Was just a suggestion, though when could Soviets Invade and successfully make Afghanistan a Communist country or was it always impossible to do so ?

Not sure the trade routes are that much more important than the ones ins Switzerland just look at the WWII negotiations to use the railway passes and most trade is anyway taken by boat or rail due to weight?

not comparable to Afghanistan, as it was crucial to pass through Afghanistan to go to many regions

 

[Brahman]

Something people tend to forget is that Afghanistan was actually pretty friendly towards Nazi Germany (The Germans assisted them with trade and infrastructure) Assuming the Germans somehow won WW2 (let's just go with Thousand Week Reich levels of Victory) could it have made them in a better situation then they are today?

That would change way to many things to just look at Afghanistan individually

 

[Brahman]

What about a united post independence India, they might want to have a buffer against USSR but also not be that hostile to USSR or totally US aligned, so USSR thinks its worth agreeing to a buffer to keep the Indians in the none aligned monument and not moving towards the USA for defence? A united India also will not want to support radical Islamic militias as its trying to keep its different parts together?

This is unlikely to result in Switzerland levels of economic development, but they might get 60 years of peace and maybe a railway from USSR to India for trade?

A united India would have its own set of problems to look after, as such it could work, but the problem is that if India falls into Civil war, Afghanistan Suffers alot

 

[ArtosStark]

What about a united post independence India, they might want to have a buffer against USSR but also not be that hostile to USSR or totally US aligned, so USSR thinks its worth agreeing to a buffer to keep the Indians in the none aligned monument and not moving towards the USA for defence? A united India also will not want to support radical Islamic militias as its trying to keep its different parts together?

This is unlikely to result in Switzerland levels of economic development, but they might get 60 years of peace and maybe a railway from USSR to India for trade?

It might work. As you say it won't be Switzerland, but it would help. Maybe add a more stable Iran with no embargo to make it a 3 power buffer? 4 if the US still has major influence in the region.

 

[Unkown00]

if India falls into Civil war, Afghanistan Suffers alot

Could it be possible for Afghanistan to take advantage of a United India falling into Civil War and take its Ethnic Pashtu land?

 

[Brahman]

Could it be possible for Afghanistan to take advantage of a United India falling into Civil War and take its Ethnic Pashtu land?

That will occur, but what will also occur is many Islamic insurgents moving into Afghanistan from India, causing it suffer as well

 

[JanWellem]

Turkey and Thailand have both been making a lot of money from tourism in the last couple of decades, Switzerland even for more than a century, something that Afghanistan would be unlikely to achieve. I'm well aware that there was some limited tourism going on in Afghanistan in the 1960s and 70s, but it was never in numbers, which did or could develop to generate substantial revenues.

 

[Dan1988]

Could having Afghanistan becoming part of Iran - say during the latter days of the Qajar dynasty - help here? It could be through any means possible - intermarriage of the Iranian and Afghan royal families, renewed invasion while the Great Powers were distracted, a combination of the two, or something else.

 

[mial42]

One of the (many) key differences between Switzerland as a landlocked country and Afghanistan as a landlocked country is neighbors. For a country with sea access, their direct trade partners are everyone else with sea access. For a landlocked country, their direct trade partners are their neighbors, and reaching the sea requires stable, cooperative neighbors. Switzerland's neighbors are the wealthy, industrialized, open to trade, and outside of the World Wars, stable and peaceful Western Europe. Afghanistan's are... none of these things for most of the twentieth century. In other words, being landlocked is not an issue (economically) with good neighbors, but fatal, or nearly so, with bad ones. This is the "landlocked with bad neighbors" trap noted in The Bottom Billion, by Paul Collier.

With that in mind, no Communism and a different decolonization of India/Pakistan (united Raj?), Persia, and China are essential. If Russia, India, Persia, and China are wealthier, more stable, and more open to trade in the twentieth century, Afghanistan's odds will be immensely improved. The obvious POD is an alt-WW1 that leads to no Bolshevik seizure of power. No USSR means a likely KMT China, and the butterflies of an alt-WW1 might change the decolonization of India and Persia for the "better" (economically speaking).

 

[Brahman]

Could having Afghanistan becoming part of Iran - say during the latter days of the Qajar dynasty - help here? It could be through any means possible - intermarriage of the Iranian and Afghan royal families, renewed invasion while the Great Powers were distracted, a combination of the two, or something else.

I doubt that Russians and British might allow such thing, but we could have Afghanistan be smaller by having British, Russia and Iran annex more territories, allowing for more compact country that can develop faster