Make a third world country in Europe

[HistoricalArthropod]

Albania, Moldova and Belarus are ITTL.

What do I win?

No. These aren't failed states. They still have function governments. I mean something on the level of Somalia or Congo or Afghanistan

 

[Jürgen]

To be fair, that's happening in most European countries

Not really all countries west of the old Iron Curtain have population growth most even without immigration. Germany are the sole exception with a fall between 2000-2010, but it have seen a increase from 2010-2020.

 

[RGB]

Albania, Moldova and Belarus are ITTL.

What do I win?

A shoe that you can eat with ketchup? Belarus is not a failed country. It has an illiberal government. That's all. Belarus has a diversified economy with a per-capita in line with former Yugoslav countries including those in the EU, decent employment situation, universal literacy, functional education systems, and most importantly, relatively low crime rates, no open conflicts on its territory, and Belorussians can be found just about anywhere as tourists or doing business. Which part of this makes you think "Somalia" - compare Ukraine next door to see a country with real problems, basically.

 

[Jürgen]

We need to recognise that it's pretty hard for a failed state to happen in not just America, but also the Americas (outside a few Caribbean exceptions). A failed state demand alternative structures which can take over some of the state's functions. Europe and its settler colonies (in which I include most of Latin America) simply lack these strong non-state structures, at least ones which are weak enough that they don't simply becomes or recreates the state in case of the state failing.

 

[HistoricalArthropod]

We need to recognise that it's pretty hard for a failed state to happen in not just America, but also the Americas (outside a few Caribbean exceptions). A failed state demand alternative structures which can take over some of the state's functions. Europe and its settler colonies (in which I include most of Latin America) simply lack these strong non-state structures, at least ones which are weak enough that they don't simply becomes or recreates the state in case of the state failing.

Maybe a terrorist group?

 

[Jürgen]

Maybe a terrorist group?

A terrorist group strong enough to overthrow a European government, would have broad enough support to become the new government. If it only enjoy regional support and are strong enough to overthrow the government or limit the state's power in a regional areas, it set up a new state or a state like structure in the region, where it enjoy support.

 

[HistoricalArthropod]

A terrorist group strong enough to overthrow a European government, would have broad enough support to become the new government. If it only enjoy regional support and are strong enough to overthrow the government or limit the state's power in a regional areas, it set up a new state or a state like structure in the region, where it enjoy support.

Maybe a coalition of groups manages to take down a government but the coalition breaks into infighting afterward?

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Transnistria doesn't become a frozen conflict. Moldova is already remarkably impoverished by eurasian standards, having an on going ethnic conflict would surely qualify it as a failed state.

 

[Jürgen]

Maybe a coalition of groups manages to take down a government but the coalition breaks into infighting afterward?

Yes and then we get the Spanish or Russian Civil War and surprise surprise someone makes it to the top and reestablish the state's power.

 

[HistoricalArthropod]

Yes and then we get the Spanish or Russian Civil War and surprise surprise someone makes it to the top and reestablish the state's power.

Maybe it breaks into a patchwork of constantly fighting warlords but remains dejure united?

 

[Byzantion]

As was stated in a convo in one of my previous threads, European countries tend not to devolve into the total chaos and degeneration of societal institutions like you see in the middle east now for several reasons, even following a brutal war. So, what WOULD it take to get a "middle east style" civil war in Europe after 1900? Bonus points if it's in western Europe. And some questions:

How would it affect European and world politics? How it affect cultural perceptions of the country the country in question? How would it affect cultural perceptions of "third world countries" in general? Would it cause a refugee crisis and if so how would it be dealt with?

Romania with a worse outcome of the Revolution in 1989 maybe a possible continuity of an autocratic government.